patrick.net

Patrick says

maybe in a middle of nowhere. in a city you need at least 200k income. that’s the problem with infinite asset inflation, eventually run out of people who can participate in the pyramid. 30 year mortgages really ballooned housing debts.

Panama City (home to Tyndall AFB and NAVSTA Panama City) is having problems housing for active duty members

Well, the military increases the airman's housing allowance to compensate for local conditions. - It usually just takes a while for the bean counters to move it up. It is more worrisome for privately employed folks.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

maybe in a middle of nowhere. in a city you need at least 200k income. that’s the problem with infinite asset inflation, eventually run out of people who can participate in the pyramid. 30 year mortgages really ballooned housing debts.

Don't live in cities or near them. You won't regret it. Even large suburbs. Small towns under 5k population with a market, gas station and a few restaurants. I'd rather drive an hour to work than live in shit hole cities and suburbs. Or get a mostly work from home job.

WookieMan says

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

maybe in a middle of nowhere. in a city you need at least 200k income. that’s the problem with infinite asset inflation, eventually run out of people who can participate in the pyramid. 30 year mortgages really ballooned housing debts.

Don't live in cities or near them. You won't regret it. Even large suburbs. Small towns under 5k population with a market, gas station and a few restaurants. I'd rather drive an hour to work than live in shit hole cities and suburbs. Or get a mostly work from home job.

Most people don't want to live in small towns where there's little to do and it's boring. There's a reason prices are cheaper there.

porkchopXpress says

Most people don't want to live in small towns where there's little to do and it's boring. There's a reason prices are cheaper there.

Everyone is different. I don't get wanting to live around Home Depot, Target, Walmart, Chilis, Applebees, Kohl's, concrete and asphalt everywhere, light pollution, crime, tiny home lots, etc. Nothing to do outdoors without driving an hour. Generally shitty housing unless you're rich. I'd rather drive 30 minutes to those things once a week if I even wanted to where I live.

Socialize with neighbors. I literally could do something every night with someone if I wanted. If anything there's too much to do. Easier to just hop on the golf cart to a neighbors house and have a few garage beers and play some yard games. Go fishing with the kids. I guess I don't have to commute so I save that time. I also would guess I know 30-40% of the town (adults). 2,200 people.

No chance I'd know that many people in a city or suburb. It would all be fake. I've lived in Chicago and Geneva, an uppity suburb. Chicago was kind of fun in college. There's no land. Geneva got some yard space but it was so uppity it was intolerable. Where I'm at now is exponentially better. Better people. Not redneck IL either. Still close enough to an airport. Can still go to the city and hang and just get a hotel. My life is way better living out in the cornfields.

porkchopXpress says

Most people don't want to live in small towns where there's little to do and it's boring. There's a reason prices are cheaper there.

Young peeps, mostly. This is why exurbs (population 20,000 - 50,000) are very popular.

https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2024/8/19/the-housing-market-is-a-bubble-full-of-fraud-and-its-going-to-pop

The Housing Market Is a Bubble Full of Fraud, and It’s Going To Pop

zzyzzx says

https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2024/8/19/the-housing-market-is-a-bubble-full-of-fraud-and-its-going-to-pop

The Housing Market Is a Bubble Full of Fraud, and It’s Going To Pop

What exactly does “pop” mean?

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/1exslfb/selling_for_less_than_we_paid/

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/1exslfb/selling_for_less_than_we_paid/

One sob story doesn’t make a book.

GNL says

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/1exslfb/selling_for_less_than_we_paid/

One sob story doesn’t make a book.

And it's the norm to get fucked when you stay put less than 7 years, not an exception.

GNL says

https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2024/8/19/the-housing-market-is-a-bubble-full-of-fraud-and-its-going-to-pop

The Housing Market Is a Bubble Full of Fraud, and It’s Going To Pop

What exactly does “pop” mean?

I think it is going to slowly deflate but not pop as income catches up with housing cost (mortgage payment or monthly rent).

Here in Florida panhandle seems like prices peaked in early 2022 when the locked-in rate for 30 year mortgage was around 3.5%. Since then I would say income has gone up about 23% such as $15 an hour for entry level (versus $12 an hour).

So if the 30 year rate returns to 5.5% by this December (as I predicted about 10 months ago) then housing should return to nearly same affordability level as it was in early 2022.

One thing I'd do if I could not allow the buyer to assume my low rate VA or FHA mortgage, then I'd at least offer to buy down their mortgage by 4 discount points, so it drops from 5.5% to 4.5%.

.

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median housing price should be at $380,000 based on 7% annual appreciation since 2013 (~$180,000) as the last 11 years have been a red hot market for housing after recovering from 2007 to 2012 collapse , as it is just the way it is in a boom-bust or roller coaster economic environment

housing costs have decoupled from household income starting again in 2013

that means housing has to drop 10% from $420,000 to around $380,000 (while household income has increased at least 20% since early 2022

thanks to the Wolfman at Wolfstreet for the chart who gives excellent analysis on housing affordability, federal debt load and other major finance topics
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Eric Holder says

And it's the norm to get fucked when you stay put less than 7 years, not an exception.

good rule of thumb about planning on staying put for 7 years after you buy a home to recover the closing costs and also recover from a drop in price

,

Someone recently told me Nashville prices are down 37%.

out here it’s different. housing ballooned because a lot of people moved in from outside, mostly retirees with good finances. housing doesn’t go up here much otherwise if ever, because people’s work is often seasonal and not stable. so 30 year mortgages aren’t like CA where money is free flowing. i come to realize that i hate everything about housing in ca and artificially subsidized housing inflation driving people into debt slavery. i own few rentals myself now, and yet i still hate the system. i wish housing wasn’t ballooning, because i see how it fucks people over and takes away their dignity.

Sort of a couple of trip reports:

1. My high school pal who is senior at DR Horton and who was overseeing 150 houses being built at this same time last year says they aren't doing anything right now.

2. I just remodeled a rent house that easily fetched $2050 monthly rent before the remodel and almost no showings the past 2 weeks. One low ball offer that soon will have made sense to accept. One price drop so far. I've never had a vacancy like this since I started it in 2013.

(San Antonio)

SoTex says

Sort of a couple of trip reports:

1. My high school pal who is senior at DR Horton and who was overseeing 150 houses being built at this same time last year says they aren't doing anything right now.

2. I just remodeled a rent house that easily fetched $2050 monthly rent before the remodel and almost no showings the past 2 weeks. One low ball offer that soon will have made sense to accept. One price drop so far. I've never had a vacancy like this since I started it in 2013.

(San Antonio)

wide range of consumers are finally pushing back ? look at what Amazon and Disney CEO's said about consumers cutting back

Subway CEO said same thing and explains why they now offering $6.99 for a footlong sandwich (normally $11) whereas it was $5 a footlong back in 2014

McDonalds CEO said McDonalds to offer more than the $5 meal deal to get customers back to the food chain

in Panama City Beach on east side, I noticed 3 bedroom townhomes going for same rent price ($2100) as they were in 2021

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AD says

wide range of consumers are finally pushing back ?

I don't know that this is true for rental housing. Lots and lots of apartments have been built here over the last decade. As well as rental houses. I just moved to a remax rental from a progress residential estate rental. Progress is one of those nameless faceless companies that have been buying up all of the stock. I wanted to check out my competition and they are definitely scammers. So maybe people purposely are avoiding those? Small mom and pops I doubt.

Another thing I've noticed is during recessions rents actually drop and in the SF Bay Area in particular by A LOT. People start moving in together to save money.

Twice in the bay area it was as if someone picked up the region and shook out half of the people. The dot com crash and the financial crash. Both times lots of empty units in my buildings and I was able to ask for (and get) a significant rent reduction.

Side note: I sent messages to a Realtor 2 months ago about wanting to rent one of the houses they had advertised. No response.

Yesterday they reached out to ask if I was still interested in buying a home.

I told them too late, nice if you'd responded about the rental 2 months ago. Additionally I don't buy 'homes' I buy 'houses' and I happen to have one for rent on the MLS that pays a nice fee to the agent that helps me get it rented lol... I sort of turned the tables on him. He wasn't interested for whatever reason. Such a dumbass.

I keep texting his phone about all of the nice features this house has... Like new floors haha...

Mortgage rates dropped to 6.50%, the lowest since May 2023, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association today. But instead of re-igniting demand for homes from buyers who need mortgages, these dropping rates have caused potential buyers to wait for mortgage rates to drop further, and to wait for home prices to drop, as prices are way too high, and so demand has dropped further, with applications for mortgages to purchase a home dropping toward their historic lows.

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/08/21/home-buyers-strike-expands-even-as-mortgage-rates-drop-to-lowest-since-may-2023-but-surging-refis-will-speed-up-the-feds-qt/

Despite Xiden-Kamunist Propaganda, nobody believes the economy is getting better or will be better in 2025. Everybody knows the rates are going to be cut at some point in the next quarter or so.

SoTex says

1. My high school pal who is senior at DR Horton and who was overseeing 150 houses being built at this same time last year says they aren't doing anything right now.

As the saying goes, location. No one wanted to build in IL for about 17 years now. You can't find a home in my area. So they're actually building again. Much of it is one off custom builds though. There are a few subdivision communities near(ish) to me and they're almost all built out finally.

I don't see land acquisition though for new subdivisions. Developers got burned here and are hesitant to buy more land and build more unless there's a contract to build the houses. Used to be they'd pop up 20 houses and just sell them.

The custom home builders are doing well by me. They pop out 2 per year and make $200k or more personally and visit the job site for 2 hours to check in on the subs. There is no "used" housing inventory so people are finally being forced to build.

My guess is places like TX, AZ, FL, CO, ID, TN and even MT are going to see a slow down for sure of building and prices. When a place like CA, NY and IL sees an exodus to these types of states they get all excited and overbuild. Factor in inflation and interest rates, the first states are going to get hit the hardest. Nevada might be on there as well. Most other states I think will stay within 5% of their local median. Those other states dragging down the national median making people think it's a crash.

I'm not paying $250k for a half century old ~1400 sq ft starter home with no walk in master closet, no views, suburban blah, nothing special like direct water access or bordering right on a State/National Park. without any character and needs $30k just to bring it semi-into the 21st Century and really $50k.

Crack Smokin' Homeloaners


What is that, 80% increase in 8 years? Hell no, to the no, no, no.

Why in Green Acres would I not pay $30-50k more to get a new house than somebody's 1990 starter/retirement downsize house (35 years old)? I'd hafta put in at least $30k anyway.

a more comprehensive chart for housing affordability

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https://wolfstreet.com/2024/08/28/treasury-department-aggressively-pushes-down-long-term-interest-rates-via-shift-to-t-bill-issuance-and-bond-buybacks/

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/08/28/treasury-department-aggressively-pushes-down-long-term-interest-rates-via-shift-to-t-bill-issuance-and-bond-buybacks/

Election year financial engineering gimmick, almost like Biden releasing the strategic oil reserve in 2022 and then gas prices going up just after the November 2022 midterm election

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AD says

Election year financial engineering gimmick,

Yup!

Hey kids, The days of >5% 13-week T-bills is slipping away.

SoTex says

2. I just remodeled a rent house that easily fetched $2050 monthly rent before the remodel and almost no showings the past 2 weeks. One low ball offer that soon will have made sense to accept. One price drop so far. I've never had a vacancy like this since I started it in 2013.

Still nothing. I may be replacing 4 black kitchen appliances with stainless to keep up with the competition in addition to asking for lower rent. I guess there are labor day sales this weekend so there's that.

Realtor pictures of the place suck too so I'll be doing that myself this holiday weekend as well.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Hey kids, The days of >5% 13-week T-bills is slipping away.

Smoke em if you got em!

My Property tax went from $800 in 2018 and is now projected to go to $1050. Basically a 25% increase in 6 years.

My condo assoc fees went from $280 to $420 in the same period, almost all of which was insurance costs. Almost all of the increase in the past 3 years.

I live in a two-story, so exempt from most of the new requirements. I've heard of high rise owners fees more than doubling, and for housing development owners, too.

People are running insurance costs when under contract, finding the insurance company wants $20k in repairs to be insurable, and told their homeowners will START at $5k/year.

Florida is set for a massive reset.

One good piece of news is DeSantis signed a bill that severely restricts HOAs in limiting work vehicles in driveways, requiring them to keep itemized expenses, banning fines without multiple warnings, requiring new fineable rules to be promulgated in writing to all members and not enforceable until after the next board meeting (which by law must be announced well in advance in writing), redefining HOA entry to immediate emergencies only, limiting backyard restrictions, limiting fines to less than the county/cide code violation equivalent, etc. etc.

Excellent news, and this is actually the Realtors and Developers pushing this, since people are shying away from HOAs but 3/4 of the new housing in FL has been under HOAs this century so far.

SoTex says

SoTex says

2. I just remodeled a rent house that easily fetched $2050 monthly rent before the remodel and almost no showings the past 2 weeks. One low ball offer that soon will have made sense to accept. One price drop so far. I've never had a vacancy like this since I started it in 2013.

Still nothing. I may be replacing 4 black kitchen appliances with stainless to keep up with the competition in addition to asking for lower rent. I guess there are labor day sales this weekend so there's that.

Realtor pictures of the place suck too so I'll be doing that myself this holiday weekend as well.

Haha, make sure to post your better photos of what your Realtor provided. Seriously, I’d like to see them.