patrick.net

.

https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/middle-class-new-homeowners-cost-burdened-house-poor-rcna163853

vacation rentals in places like Panama City Beach does not help this

...........................................

The share of middle-class Americans who are buying wallet-squeezing homes has more than doubled in the previous 10 years.

Almost 30% of middle-class homeowners bought homes with monthly payments costing more than 30% of their income in 2022, an NBC News analysis of Census Bureau data found. That’s more than twice the share from 2013, with experts warning it leaves many households with less money for groceries and emergencies and less able to get ahead in the future.

That “cost-burdened” benchmark — in which a household devotes over 30% of income to housing costs — is a widely used measure of affordability for both homeownership and renting. The Census Bureau measures housing costs against it, and the Department of Housing and Urban Development has used it for decades.

The Buyer's strike is on!

Inventory skyrocketing, completed transactions plummeting, stalling across the nation. The biggest COVID markets are the first to start the collapse.

Rates, Schmates. It's the underlying price that's too DAMN high.



Knock inflated Assets to the ground!

As I said, the fun really begins a quarter or so after the first rate cut. That's when reality bites the homeloaner's prized paper puffed up asset.

AmericanKulak says

The Buyer's strike is on!

Inventory skyrocketing, completed transactions plummeting, stalling across the nation. The biggest COVID markets are the first to start the collapse.

Rates, Schmates. It's the underlying price that's too DAMN high.



Knock inflated Assets to the ground!

As I said, the fun really begins a quarter or so after the first rate cut. That's when reality bites the homeloaner's prized paper puffed up asset.

Wonder how this will effect Canadian and Western US R/E markets.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

Wonder how this will effect Canadian and Western US R/E markets.

Not sure how many Chinese nationals own +$1 million dollar homes in the USA especially California, but I have read that a lot of the multimillion dollar residential real estate in British Columbia is owned by foreign citizens.

So the Chicoms are taxing its rich citizens' realized gains of recent home sales in the USA and Canada ?

.

The Millions of Chinese Millionaires are going to buy my Western Broward County 1970s 3/2 townhouse with the Pizza Hut roof in the burbs for a bazzilion!

Buy now or be locked out forever!

We got a clear head and shoulders, get ready for the big drop by next summer.

According to the Raw Zillow Listing, even San Diego and Miami saw drops last month.
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/10/15/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-sept-update-prices-drop-in-26-of-28-big-metros-even-san-diego-los-angeles/

Controversial Opinion: House prices are back to normal when they drop to about 2016 prices, or ~30%

AmericanKulak says

Western Broward County 1970s 3/2 townhouse

sounds like The Everglades is your backyard

.

AD says

sounds like The Everglades is your backyard

Not mine thank goodness, Broward sucks ass, but I do remember when they went for a reasonable sum. Here's an example of "Pizza Hut" roofed townhouse. Probably went for way under $200k just a few years ago. This neighborhood is full of low-level Broward County employees -Trayvon Martin's mom type people,etc:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1518-NW-90th-Way-1518-Pembroke-Pines-FL-33024/43276443_zpid/

Shit, my ex-sister in law brought a modest house built in the early 2000s for $160k sometime around 2015. Just east of Orlando Airport. They're going for $360-$420 now, zero lot 3/2, ~1300 sq ft.

Absolutely ludicrous.

AmericanKulak says

Broward sucks ass, but I do remember when they went for a reasonable sum. Here's an example of "Pizza Hut" roofed townhouse. Probably went for way under $200k just a few years ago. This neighborhood is full of low-level Broward County employees -Trayvon Martin's mom type people,etc:

It has a terrible design for a roof in Florida given the risks of high winds.

But if they put a George Zimmerman in charge of the HOA there and drop the asking price from $300,000 to $175,000 then I would consider it a good value.

For $260,000 to $300,000 you can get a 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhome in Panama City Beach that was built in 2015 or later, and its only about a 1.75 mile walk to the beach.

.

AD says

But if they put a George Zimmerman in charge of the HOA there and drop the asking price from $300,000 to $175,000 then I would consider it a good value.

Yeah, $175k would be fine.

But the asking is outrageous. I do notice the $15k price cut.

Another sugar shack gem in Santa Cruz to cheer everybody up. Looks like it needs a roof rack for the golf clubs.

More cheer. Another California Dreamin' Beach Ass Reamin'. Cutsie Wootsie in California gonna cost you dear. Too many oligarchs, not enough beach.

Square footage goes up as you move away from the beach, but it looks like peak market chasing old prices to lure suckers or the institutional behemoths. There are a lot of price cuts already with wailing and gnashing of teeth from the speculators.

Ceffer says

More cheer. Another California Dreamin' Beach Ass Reamin'. Cutsie Wootsie in California gonna cost you dear. Too many oligarchs, not enough beach.

Lol. $130-140k per year for PITI likely. What a joke. I take 20 minute shits.... 1 bath? WTF. By default for me that house is technically unusable with 1 bath. 1 shower. I'd rather live on a bus at that point and swim in a clear water lake to clean myself or get a decked out RV for $300-400k and skip the insurance and taxes.

WookieMan says

Lol. $130-140k per year for PITI likely. What a joke. I take 20 minute shits..

Beachfront mobile home lot rents (not including HOA fees) exceed $5k a month (could be higher, that was 2 years ago).

Seniors Reamed on Rent Increases De Anza Mobile Home pdf

This Santa Cruz gem sugar shack is actually in a meth ridden crime area on west side, not that close to the beach, but in the UCSC university real estate corridor elevating its price (you'll always have a top dollar tenant(s)).

Ceffer says

WookieMan says

Lol. $130-140k per year for PITI likely. What a joke. I take 20 minute shits..

Beachfront mobile home lot rents (not including HOA fees) exceed $5k a month (could be higher, that was 2 years ago).

Seniors Reamed on Rent Increases De Anza Mobile Home pdf

Jesus. And that's not even a nice beach. I don't know how you cats do it out there. I'll eventually post pictures of my house when it's built. It will be 20% less and 3-4x's the size on almost an acre.

WookieMan says

And that's not even a nice beach.

It's beautiful in its own rugged way, though this location turns the corner at the west end of Santa Cruz and gets the very brisk wind belt treatment from the Pacific. Not even comparable, though, to an average looking Caribbean or Florida beach, not to mention the cold water.

Ceffer says

This Santa Cruz gem sugar shack is actually in a meth ridden crime area on west side

Few years ago took a monarch butterfly tour by UCSC. Part of it went through a gated community down to beach that UCSC sounded like has exclusive access.
Near the beach has pieces of glass scattered around ashes, suspect they were related to drugs as per one of the tour members!
While leaving, saw few sale signs close to 800k. Folks look poor or below middle around and tough neighborhood. Those shacks are obviously expensive.

Mortgage Rates Rise to a 2-Month High: Our Economist Explains What It Means for the Housing Market

Mortgage rates surged to 6.44% for a 30-year fixed loan in the week ending Oct. 17—the highest in roughly two months.

In the face of these elevated rates, the number of applications for home purchases went down this week. However, they still remained above the previous year’s pace, which indicates some improvement in homebuyer demand.

Meanwhile, the latest jobs and inflation reports continue to underscore the resilience of the U.S. economy. Retail sales ticked up, highlighting the willingness of consumers to spend, while jobless claims remained low, pointing to favorable conditions for workers.

In the for-sale housing market, activity remained steady: Home prices were flat after 16 weeks of mild declines, and time on the market and active listings were very similar to last week’s. The number of new listings saw a surprising dip, but it seems likely that Hurricane Milton disrupted new listing activity in many areas.

Finally, as Election Day nears and voting gets underway, a Realtor.com® survey found that politics influence where nearly a quarter of U.S. adults choose to live. Furthermore, as candidates attempt to sway voter opinions, a recent Realtor.com analysis found the movement of people from state to state is likely to play a role in the 2024 presidential race.

In fact, 31 states—including five crucial swing states—are likely to shift redder or bluer due to more people moving across state lines. Their voting habits might have the potential to sway election outcomes.

https://www.realtor.com/news/real-estate-news/mortgage-rates-rise-2-month-high-economist-explains

What good is a beach you can't swim in? How cold is that water? The riptide?

This is why God invented wetsuits and the one eyed Jack O'Neill became famous and wealthy. As you go north, more rippy and tossy, cold and windy. Santa Cruz is a large bay inlet facing south and the fog tends to slide off and around it. The water is calmer, but still gets the wave energy from the ocean, which is why surfers like it.

The spot in the picture is at the juncture where the coast turns back north from west and becomes much more rugged, windy and weather-y.

WookieMan says

I take 20 minute shits

You're gonna blow a gasket if you keep that up!

WookieMan says

The guy in the double lot next to the umbrella thingy inherited the lot with a long term lease from his parents and pays a couple hundred a month in lot rent fees. I bought a surfboard from him years ago.

The history is the park had rent control down to that couple hundred a month, so the Appalachian trailers on the lots were selling for 500k to a million based on the rent control subsidy. A large Chicago real estate firm bought the development then lawfared the rent control out of existence and raised the lot fees overnight to thousands, which squelched the old speculation in its tracks and left a lot of 'investors' and oldsters high and dry. However, many lower rates were preserved for various residents under various circumstances. My wife knows a lady who still lives there under the older plot rents. You can buy an old trailer there for lower prices now, you just have to pay the much higher rents and HOA stuff.

More cheer. Probably something that has been in somebody's family for generations but cost basically no tax to just keep (but not fix up) You see these weed strewn houses all over Santa Cruz. Somebody decided to finally liquidate. Smaller shed is the 'mother-in-law', LOL!

A tear down it appears and the payment is the lot price, not that close to the beach, either. Lot extends over to the right.

That's depressing. Not the price really, but the fact someone gives no shits about a property. That's 2-4 weeks of someone that's handy by themselves to make it look nice. I hate shitty looking properties.

My neighbor across the street pisses me off big time. Weeds in the flower beds. Mows bi-weekly and has long ass grass. There's always a car there so it's not like they're not at home. Plant some low maintenance perennials, toss some mulch down. Put fabric down to slow/stop weeds and water when it's dry. It's a nice brick ranch too.

Your front yard is your personality. I can tell if you're lazy or hard working immediately. Because throwing in a few plants and cleaning things up is a 4-6 hour Sunday job.

I think big grassy lawns are a waste and a PITA.

That being said, no excuse not to make it look park like. Put up some dwarf pines or evergreen bushes, some gravel, make a few patches of perennial herbs, etc. You can have a low maintenance, nice "Cottage" landscape in a weekend or two and then only need a once a month hedge patrol and rake or weed out. If you live away from Yup Codes, plant that shit in fruit and veggies.

AmericanKulak says

I think big grassy lawns are a waste and a PITA.

No doubt it's work. I just get pissed when I see people that just let their yard look like shit. With kids I like having a lawn. We have parks, but we're small and they're built towards kids not my kids ages. So we set up yard games like badminton, frisbee games, etc. It's nice to be able to just go out back and hang.

I concur with your point though. Doesn't take a whole lot to make a yard look decent. I don't mind the lawn because I have a zero turn and can knock out 1/2 acre in 20 minutes drinking a beer listening to music and the wife thinks I'm "working" lol.

I find lawnmowing to be relaxing. I wouldn't know about zero turns, the year I started mowing was the year Dad's riding mower broke. Wasn't too bad, a mix tape on the walkman. Later on in life, I only had a fifth of an acre with half in a backyard garden and the border was grapes coming up across a fence-trellis. Not much to mow after factoring in the detached garage.

I just weed whackered it in the front, not worth getting a mower for so small a patch of grass.

The hippies asked to take my grapes and left me mason jars of wine, which was nice.

Edit: Added "Later on in Life" to separate the walkman-mowing in my childhood home from the weed whacking in my small Oregon cottage later in life.

Well, at least the real estate agent had the decency to remove the dried out corpses of the crack/fentanyl addicts. However, that probably added 100K to the asking price.

AmericanKulak says

a mix tape on the walkman

I still have a Walkman but have not used it in 20 years. Mp3 and now phone/bluetooth kinds took over.

HeadSet says

AmericanKulak says

a mix tape on the walkman

I still have a Walkman but have not used it in 20 years. Mp3 and now phone/bluetooth kinds took over.

I'm just glad there's quality wireless over year ear headphones that don't break the bank. $100ish. I prefer those when mowing to drown out the mower noise.

The negative with a fenced yard is I sometimes smack the fence posts and don't notice/hear it. I go fast. I have broken the pins that attach the deck. Whoops. I knew how to fix it, but it was easier to take it to John Deere and have them do a whole tune up, fix my damage and swap in new blades.

Moral of the story is everyone should take care of their yard. I'm guessing that place Ceffer posted would go for $100k more just making the yard look "pretty" to get more showings.

WookieMan says

I'm guessing that place Ceffer posted would go for $100k more just making the yard look "pretty" to get more showings.

So, you are saying that at today's labor rates that would be a wash?

To make the yard look pretty, you'd have to tear the house down to the studs. That's assuming it even has studs. It looks like a glorified lean-to.

If I remember correctly I think in CA you can tear down to the foundation, leave one wall up, extend, rebuild whatever and your property taxes will not be effected?

SoTex says

If I remember correctly I think in CA you can tear down to the foundation, leave one wall up, extend, rebuild whatever and your property taxes will not be effected?

Dunno about that, maybe, but once you get the corruptocracy of permits and inspectors involved in Santa Cruz, it's game over.

A lot of houses sell and re-sell with unapproved additions and features that would not pass these inspections and requirements, but are still bought like hand me downs. The Realtors just make the buyers sign some kind of waiver.

I know three people who left the outsides intact but entirely redid the insides of the shells with new wiring, insulation, walls, etc. etc. It reduces some square footage because you have to build everything on the inside. They did not report anything to the so called authorities, it was all on the down low, and they kept the lower tax base intact.

I laugh because one guy's rusty old trailer looks so bad I told him burglars leave him care packages. However, on the inside its a little paradise and he has a complete gourmet cooks kitchen.

My neighbor across the street did the same with a trailer, and he's' an artisan craftsmen, so the inside is quite nice, all on the down low.

Same with people behind me. Guy was a contractor and just rebuilt the shell home from the inside, never got any permits or inspections. His wife inherited the place, so the inherited Prop 13 taxes are zip. Where there's a will, there's a way.

HeadSet says

So, you are saying that at today's labor rates that would be a wash?

Like I said, make it look pretty. Lipstick on a pig. People surprisingly get over dated interiors. But they won't look at the place if the photo look like shit. @GNL could like attest to this. I can from being a broker and semi professional photographer. I know the data.

The last photo Ceffer posted would take 2 people a weekend to clean up the outside. All MLS' that I know of require the first photo to be the exterior or you're fined. Your first impression is fucked and no one looks at the place. You need showings. Everyone would scroll past that photo.

I'd look at the property as an investment, but I'd come in $200K lower even with high CA prices. I did that with my current house and it paid off.

Looks like it's a myth, or better known as BS:

https://www.keithmessickarchitecture.com/blog-data/2015/1/16/property-taxes

"There are lots of myths in residential design and construction. One of the strongest, most entrenched, is the "leave one wall standing" myth. The premise of this myth is that if one wall is left standing, the project can be classified as a remodel, as opposed to new construction, and it will result in lower property taxes. Unfortunately, this is not true."

I have an uncle who was an airline pilot in the early 80s (and later) who moved from the SF bay area to Houston to be near the Continental hub or whatever. Pilots have a lot of free time so he started building and selling huge houses in Spring Texas during his time off.

I was a little kid but I remember walking around in one of them and him saying, "I couldn't do this shit in CA", even back then it sucked apparently.