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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   603,090 views  5,669 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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5451   Eric Holder   2024 Oct 7, 12:33pm  

Ceffer says

Westside, not even that close to the ocean.


GIVE GLOBULL WORMING SOME TIME AND IT WILL BE WATEFRONT!!! AND THEN IT QUADRUPLES!!!!
5453   AmericanKulak   2024 Oct 8, 8:32pm  

Blackrock and the others stopped buying many quarters ago.
5454   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 8, 8:34pm  

AmericanKulak says

Blackrock and the others stopped buying many quarters ago.


Now they are even selling.
5455   AD   2024 Oct 8, 11:28pm  

Florida housing needs to be listed at least 20% below its peak price set in June 2022.

I realize less people will be inclined to retire to Florida because of hurricane fears. However, they may end up moving further inland like +20 miles from the beach in towns such as The Villages, Deltona, Lakeland and Ocala.

Where we are in Panama City Beach, we are around 17 feet above sea level and about 2 miles from the beach. Worst case is high tide and category 5 that brings about 5 feet above ground where we are at based on GIS mapping and National Hurricane Center data.

Category 5 Hurricane Michael only had a storm surge of around 10 feet, but the Florida Panhandle beach roads (Thomas Drive, Front Beach Rd, 30A, etc) are at 10 feet above sea level.

Tourists are still going to come to Florida, so there will still need vacation housing/condos, hotels and motels, as well as housing (townhomes and apartments) for all the workers (from hotel front desk to car mechanics to urgent care clinic staff to restaurant cooks).


5456   AD   2024 Oct 8, 11:46pm  

on my Facebook feed...it is DR Horton for Florida panhandle

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5459   clambo   2024 Oct 9, 11:15pm  

Google median home prices in Palm Beach County and Martin County.
The trend is still upward.
Or, realtor.com and just enter a county you're curious about.
Santa Cruz, CA median price is $1.4 million.
No wonder the locals are stressed out these days.
5460   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2024 Oct 11, 4:54am  

Home Prices Are Plummeting in Some of the Nation’s Most Desirable Places To Live—Especially in These 10 Cities

Why prices are decreasing

In Florida, which has four cities in the top 10, the downward shift in pricing comes after a major COVID-19 pandemic boom.

“Remote work trend certainly played a role, but I think many of the people that have come to Florida were more focused on the benefits of no state income tax as well as political ideologies,” says Robert Washington, owner of Savvy Buyers Realty in St. Petersburg, FL.

The influx of new residents drew builders to Florida who added inventory, which helped bring the median price down. (However, in cities such as Miami, median list prices are still 50% higher than before the pandemic.) It’s also worth noting this data was collected before Hurricanes Helene and Milton ripped through the state.

The downward trend in median list prices is happening on the national level, too, with home prices also falling in popular cities in the Midwest, the West, and the South.

https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/10-metros-home-prices-decreased-most


5461   AD   2024 Oct 15, 11:19am  

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https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/middle-class-new-homeowners-cost-burdened-house-poor-rcna163853

vacation rentals in places like Panama City Beach does not help this

...........................................

The share of middle-class Americans who are buying wallet-squeezing homes has more than doubled in the previous 10 years.

Almost 30% of middle-class homeowners bought homes with monthly payments costing more than 30% of their income in 2022, an NBC News analysis of Census Bureau data found. That’s more than twice the share from 2013, with experts warning it leaves many households with less money for groceries and emergencies and less able to get ahead in the future.

That “cost-burdened” benchmark — in which a household devotes over 30% of income to housing costs — is a widely used measure of affordability for both homeownership and renting. The Census Bureau measures housing costs against it, and the Department of Housing and Urban Development has used it for decades.
5462   AmericanKulak   2024 Oct 15, 10:20pm  

The Buyer's strike is on!

Inventory skyrocketing, completed transactions plummeting, stalling across the nation. The biggest COVID markets are the first to start the collapse.

Rates, Schmates. It's the underlying price that's too DAMN high.



Knock inflated Assets to the ground!

As I said, the fun really begins a quarter or so after the first rate cut. That's when reality bites the homeloaner's prized paper puffed up asset.
5463   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 16, 7:14am  

AmericanKulak says

The Buyer's strike is on!

Inventory skyrocketing, completed transactions plummeting, stalling across the nation. The biggest COVID markets are the first to start the collapse.

Rates, Schmates. It's the underlying price that's too DAMN high.



Knock inflated Assets to the ground!

As I said, the fun really begins a quarter or so after the first rate cut. That's when reality bites the homeloaner's prized paper puffed up asset.




5464   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 16, 9:17am  

Wonder how this will effect Canadian and Western US R/E markets.

5465   AD   2024 Oct 16, 11:46am  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

Wonder how this will effect Canadian and Western US R/E markets.


Not sure how many Chinese nationals own +$1 million dollar homes in the USA especially California, but I have read that a lot of the multimillion dollar residential real estate in British Columbia is owned by foreign citizens.

So the Chicoms are taxing its rich citizens' realized gains of recent home sales in the USA and Canada ?

.
5466   AmericanKulak   2024 Oct 16, 11:53am  

The Millions of Chinese Millionaires are going to buy my Western Broward County 1970s 3/2 townhouse with the Pizza Hut roof in the burbs for a bazzilion!

Buy now or be locked out forever!
5467   AmericanKulak   2024 Oct 16, 12:01pm  



We got a clear head and shoulders, get ready for the big drop by next summer.

According to the Raw Zillow Listing, even San Diego and Miami saw drops last month.
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/10/15/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-sept-update-prices-drop-in-26-of-28-big-metros-even-san-diego-los-angeles/

Controversial Opinion: House prices are back to normal when they drop to about 2016 prices, or ~30%
5468   AD   2024 Oct 16, 8:43pm  



5469   AD   2024 Oct 16, 9:35pm  

AmericanKulak says

Western Broward County 1970s 3/2 townhouse


sounds like The Everglades is your backyard

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5470   AmericanKulak   2024 Oct 16, 10:19pm  

AD says


sounds like The Everglades is your backyard

Not mine thank goodness, Broward sucks ass, but I do remember when they went for a reasonable sum. Here's an example of "Pizza Hut" roofed townhouse. Probably went for way under $200k just a few years ago. This neighborhood is full of low-level Broward County employees -Trayvon Martin's mom type people,etc:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1518-NW-90th-Way-1518-Pembroke-Pines-FL-33024/43276443_zpid/

Shit, my ex-sister in law brought a modest house built in the early 2000s for $160k sometime around 2015. Just east of Orlando Airport. They're going for $360-$420 now, zero lot 3/2, ~1300 sq ft.

Absolutely ludicrous.
5471   AD   2024 Oct 16, 11:55pm  

AmericanKulak says


Broward sucks ass, but I do remember when they went for a reasonable sum. Here's an example of "Pizza Hut" roofed townhouse. Probably went for way under $200k just a few years ago. This neighborhood is full of low-level Broward County employees -Trayvon Martin's mom type people,etc:


It has a terrible design for a roof in Florida given the risks of high winds.

But if they put a George Zimmerman in charge of the HOA there and drop the asking price from $300,000 to $175,000 then I would consider it a good value.

For $260,000 to $300,000 you can get a 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhome in Panama City Beach that was built in 2015 or later, and its only about a 1.75 mile walk to the beach.

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5472   AmericanKulak   2024 Oct 17, 9:03am  

AD says

But if they put a George Zimmerman in charge of the HOA there and drop the asking price from $300,000 to $175,000 then I would consider it a good value.

Yeah, $175k would be fine.

But the asking is outrageous. I do notice the $15k price cut.
5473   Ceffer   2024 Oct 17, 11:49am  

Another sugar shack gem in Santa Cruz to cheer everybody up. Looks like it needs a roof rack for the golf clubs.

5474   Ceffer   2024 Oct 17, 2:00pm  

More cheer. Another California Dreamin' Beach Ass Reamin'. Cutsie Wootsie in California gonna cost you dear. Too many oligarchs, not enough beach.

5475   Ceffer   2024 Oct 17, 2:30pm  

Square footage goes up as you move away from the beach, but it looks like peak market chasing old prices to lure suckers or the institutional behemoths. There are a lot of price cuts already with wailing and gnashing of teeth from the speculators.

5476   WookieMan   2024 Oct 17, 2:41pm  

Ceffer says

More cheer. Another California Dreamin' Beach Ass Reamin'. Cutsie Wootsie in California gonna cost you dear. Too many oligarchs, not enough beach.



Lol. $130-140k per year for PITI likely. What a joke. I take 20 minute shits.... 1 bath? WTF. By default for me that house is technically unusable with 1 bath. 1 shower. I'd rather live on a bus at that point and swim in a clear water lake to clean myself or get a decked out RV for $300-400k and skip the insurance and taxes.
5477   Ceffer   2024 Oct 17, 2:51pm  

WookieMan says


Lol. $130-140k per year for PITI likely. What a joke. I take 20 minute shits..

Beachfront mobile home lot rents (not including HOA fees) exceed $5k a month (could be higher, that was 2 years ago).

Seniors Reamed on Rent Increases De Anza Mobile Home pdf

5478   Ceffer   2024 Oct 17, 7:42pm  

This Santa Cruz gem sugar shack is actually in a meth ridden crime area on west side, not that close to the beach, but in the UCSC university real estate corridor elevating its price (you'll always have a top dollar tenant(s)).

5479   WookieMan   2024 Oct 17, 7:48pm  

Ceffer says

WookieMan says



Lol. $130-140k per year for PITI likely. What a joke. I take 20 minute shits..

Beachfront mobile home lot rents (not including HOA fees) exceed $5k a month (could be higher, that was 2 years ago).

Seniors Reamed on Rent Increases De Anza Mobile Home pdf



Jesus. And that's not even a nice beach. I don't know how you cats do it out there. I'll eventually post pictures of my house when it's built. It will be 20% less and 3-4x's the size on almost an acre.
5480   Ceffer   2024 Oct 17, 11:06pm  

WookieMan says

And that's not even a nice beach.

It's beautiful in its own rugged way, though this location turns the corner at the west end of Santa Cruz and gets the very brisk wind belt treatment from the Pacific. Not even comparable, though, to an average looking Caribbean or Florida beach, not to mention the cold water.
5481   Blue   2024 Oct 17, 11:28pm  

Ceffer says


This Santa Cruz gem sugar shack is actually in a meth ridden crime area on west side

Few years ago took a monarch butterfly tour by UCSC. Part of it went through a gated community down to beach that UCSC sounded like has exclusive access.
Near the beach has pieces of glass scattered around ashes, suspect they were related to drugs as per one of the tour members!
While leaving, saw few sale signs close to 800k. Folks look poor or below middle around and tough neighborhood. Those shacks are obviously expensive.
5482   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2024 Oct 19, 7:37am  

Mortgage Rates Rise to a 2-Month High: Our Economist Explains What It Means for the Housing Market

Mortgage rates surged to 6.44% for a 30-year fixed loan in the week ending Oct. 17—the highest in roughly two months.

In the face of these elevated rates, the number of applications for home purchases went down this week. However, they still remained above the previous year’s pace, which indicates some improvement in homebuyer demand.

Meanwhile, the latest jobs and inflation reports continue to underscore the resilience of the U.S. economy. Retail sales ticked up, highlighting the willingness of consumers to spend, while jobless claims remained low, pointing to favorable conditions for workers.

In the for-sale housing market, activity remained steady: Home prices were flat after 16 weeks of mild declines, and time on the market and active listings were very similar to last week’s. The number of new listings saw a surprising dip, but it seems likely that Hurricane Milton disrupted new listing activity in many areas.

Finally, as Election Day nears and voting gets underway, a Realtor.com® survey found that politics influence where nearly a quarter of U.S. adults choose to live. Furthermore, as candidates attempt to sway voter opinions, a recent Realtor.com analysis found the movement of people from state to state is likely to play a role in the 2024 presidential race.

In fact, 31 states—including five crucial swing states—are likely to shift redder or bluer due to more people moving across state lines. Their voting habits might have the potential to sway election outcomes.

https://www.realtor.com/news/real-estate-news/mortgage-rates-rise-2-month-high-economist-explains



5483   AmericanKulak   2024 Oct 19, 11:04am  

What good is a beach you can't swim in? How cold is that water? The riptide?
5484   Ceffer   2024 Oct 19, 11:22am  

This is why God invented wetsuits and the one eyed Jack O'Neill became famous and wealthy. As you go north, more rippy and tossy, cold and windy. Santa Cruz is a large bay inlet facing south and the fog tends to slide off and around it. The water is calmer, but still gets the wave energy from the ocean, which is why surfers like it.

The spot in the picture is at the juncture where the coast turns back north from west and becomes much more rugged, windy and weather-y.
5485   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2024 Oct 19, 11:25am  

WookieMan says

I take 20 minute shits


You're gonna blow a gasket if you keep that up!
5486   Ceffer   2024 Oct 19, 11:40am  

WookieMan says






The guy in the double lot next to the umbrella thingy inherited the lot with a long term lease from his parents and pays a couple hundred a month in lot rent fees. I bought a surfboard from him years ago.

The history is the park had rent control down to that couple hundred a month, so the Appalachian trailers on the lots were selling for 500k to a million based on the rent control subsidy. A large Chicago real estate firm bought the development then lawfared the rent control out of existence and raised the lot fees overnight to thousands, which squelched the old speculation in its tracks and left a lot of 'investors' and oldsters high and dry. However, many lower rates were preserved for various residents under various circumstances. My wife knows a lady who still lives there under the older plot rents. You can buy an old trailer there for lower prices now, you just have to pay the much higher rents and HOA stuff.
5487   Ceffer   2024 Oct 19, 6:03pm  

More cheer. Probably something that has been in somebody's family for generations but cost basically no tax to just keep (but not fix up) You see these weed strewn houses all over Santa Cruz. Somebody decided to finally liquidate. Smaller shed is the 'mother-in-law', LOL!

A tear down it appears and the payment is the lot price, not that close to the beach, either. Lot extends over to the right.




5488   WookieMan   2024 Oct 19, 10:28pm  

That's depressing. Not the price really, but the fact someone gives no shits about a property. That's 2-4 weeks of someone that's handy by themselves to make it look nice. I hate shitty looking properties.

My neighbor across the street pisses me off big time. Weeds in the flower beds. Mows bi-weekly and has long ass grass. There's always a car there so it's not like they're not at home. Plant some low maintenance perennials, toss some mulch down. Put fabric down to slow/stop weeds and water when it's dry. It's a nice brick ranch too.

Your front yard is your personality. I can tell if you're lazy or hard working immediately. Because throwing in a few plants and cleaning things up is a 4-6 hour Sunday job.
5489   AmericanKulak   2024 Oct 19, 10:56pm  

I think big grassy lawns are a waste and a PITA.

That being said, no excuse not to make it look park like. Put up some dwarf pines or evergreen bushes, some gravel, make a few patches of perennial herbs, etc. You can have a low maintenance, nice "Cottage" landscape in a weekend or two and then only need a once a month hedge patrol and rake or weed out. If you live away from Yup Codes, plant that shit in fruit and veggies.
5490   WookieMan   2024 Oct 19, 11:04pm  

AmericanKulak says

I think big grassy lawns are a waste and a PITA.

No doubt it's work. I just get pissed when I see people that just let their yard look like shit. With kids I like having a lawn. We have parks, but we're small and they're built towards kids not my kids ages. So we set up yard games like badminton, frisbee games, etc. It's nice to be able to just go out back and hang.

I concur with your point though. Doesn't take a whole lot to make a yard look decent. I don't mind the lawn because I have a zero turn and can knock out 1/2 acre in 20 minutes drinking a beer listening to music and the wife thinks I'm "working" lol.

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