patrick.net

Booger says

,

Booger, it is waterfront property on 1.72 acres. That will attract the type who want an expensive fishing boat moored in the back. Its tax assessment or assessed value went from $200,000 in 1999 to $600,000 in 2020. As a very rough order of magnitude (ROM) estimate, I would say it is worth $600,000 times 1.20 or $720,000.

So $800,000 is not unreasonable. What gets me is that it was last sold in 2021 for $1,025,000.

Back around July 2021 the 30 year rate was 3% and now is around 5%, so a 20% drop in price is in line with the general rule that real estate drops 10% for every 1% increase in the 30 year rate.

I wonder who bought it and why they are trying to sell it at a loss now.
.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/14254-Mount-Pleasant-Rd-Jacksonville-FL-32225/44584254_zpid/

,

I don't see screened in back yards. Maybe there are less skeeters that far North?

just_passing_through says

I don't see screened in back yards. Maybe there are less skeeters that far North?

Yeah, Jacksonville like Florida panhandle is still Florida especially with respect to mosquitoes, wetlands, palm trees, and even citrus. Both get warm weather but about 75 days less warm weather than South Florida. Beach weather is from early March to mid November, whereas South Florida's beach weather is about 10 months.

You can grow Hamlin oranges and grapefruit as far north as the border with Georgia or Alabama.

I suspect that Jacksonville has a mosquito control board that is very effective.

.

ad says

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

3. Colorado Springs

Yeah I noticed Colorado Springs real estate has started to cool down and prices have dropped some. Florida panhandle like Pensacola, Niceville, South Walton, and Panama City are not on the list. I wonder why because its been very active here as far as development.

.

Housing crash is moving from West to East and may skip the Midwest. It may take until 2023 for it to hit Florida.

I'm still waiting for Boise to drop

Booger says

Housing crash is moving from West to East and may skip the Midwest. It may take until 2023 for it to hit Florida.

Depends as long as there are enough people from the North who are selling homes at a greater price than the homes they buy in Florida.

But I agree, as I am seeing some cooling off here in the Florida panhandle as prices have obviously peaked.

My wife said our townhome (2 miles from the beach) should have a bottom price of a value that is based on 4% annual appreciation from when we bought it in summer 2016.

We bought it for $187,000 so that means (1.04)^6 x $187,000 which is $237,000. The last price sold for an identical home was $300,000 about 4 months ago.

.

Hold my beer.

RedStar says

I'm still waiting for Boise to drop

You'll be waiting for a long time. Wookieman says price reductions are unpossible.

ad says

Depends as long as there are enough people from the North who are selling homes at a greater price than the homes they buy in Florida.

Demographics in certain parts of Florida, St Petersburg in particular, suggests that people need to be frantically moving into the area to replace all the people dying to keep the population steady. Also, Florida, and a few other places, are famous for having people migrate in waves. It's possible, maybe more like probable, that the pandemic simply pushed people's timeline forward too, and demand for housing in Florida at current prices is a huge deterrent as well. Same for Atlanta and Charlotte.

ad says

I wonder who bought it and why they are trying to sell it at a loss now.

Probably for carryover losses anticipating the market was going down and they had a good year doing something else to avoid a big tax bill. Rarely does anyone sell at a loss for fun. It was likely a tax strategy and they just paid a little PITI and wrote off a big tax bill. A $225k loss can get you out of some big tax bills if it was an investment and not owner occupied.

https://www.statesman.com/story/business/technology/2022/08/12/homeward-real-estate-startup-austin-tx-layoffs/65402005007/

Austin real estate startup Homeward to lay off 20% of employees

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-homebuilder-confidence-hits-worst-140000974.html

US Homebuilder Confidence Hits Worst Slump Since 2007 Collapse

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-homebuilder-confidence-hits-worst-140000974.html

US Homebuilder Confidence Hits Worst Slump Since 2007 Collapse

Hold my beer, zzyzzx.

Strange, Santa Cruz has opened up with sales more than tri-valley so far, with the 'low end' in tri-valley giving the first signs. I laugh, because the 'low end' people in rinky dinky condos could be living on McMansion estates in Texas. They mostly display their 'wealth' with vehicle mania.

https://www.fa-mag.com/news/wells-fargo-plans-major-retreat-from-mortgage-business-it-long-dominated-69227.html

Wells Fargo Plans Major Retreat From Mortgage Business It Long Dominated

Buffett isn't dumb.

Booger says

Wells Fargo Plans Major Retreat From Mortgage Business It Long Dominated

Not sure as they make about $800 on the mortgage origination fee and then they can sell the mortgages via mortgage back securities (MBS) in order to remove the liability from their financial books. They make at least a 20% profit from the origination fee after accounting for salaries, overhead, etc.

,

Patrick says

Buffett isn't dumb.

Buffet probably isn't stupid, but he's not a genius so much as he's connected. Don't think the government doesn't directly assist him.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-live-news-updates-august-16-115939840.html

The stock market isn't bothered by a cratering housing market

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-live-news-updates-august-16-115939840.html

The stock market isn't bothered by a cratering housing market

Just what exactly is the stock market trading on? A hot economy? TBTF? "The fed always has our back"?

ad says

Booger says

Wells Fargo Plans Major Retreat From Mortgage Business It Long Dominated

Not sure as they make about $800 on the mortgage origination fee and then they can sell the mortgages via mortgage back securities (MBS) in order to remove the liability from their financial books. They make at least a 20% profit from the origination fee after accounting for salaries, overhead, etc.

,

The forecast is for an increase in foreclosures. Foreclosures are expensive because of all the legal fees, insurance and customer contact demand. Wells Fargo is good to get out. I say that based on my previous mortgage experience,

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-16/buyers-get-cold-feet-home-sale-cancellations-jump-in-july

US Home-Sale Cancellations Soar in July as Buyers Pull Back

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/15/homes/rising-rent-wages-housing

Majority of Americans say they're worried about being able to pay for housing

1337irr says

Foreclosures are expensive because of all the legal fees, insurance and customer contact demand.

They learned 2006-12. Foreclosures are more expensive. Remember they're on the hook for property taxes as well. Banks save substantially more getting "some" money.

Say your payment is $1,000. It will easily cost the bank $500/mo if they kick your ass out and that still takes a year or so of getting nothing. Loans are amortized, so the money is made up front. If you got someone that has paid 2-3+, you're in the green still. Defer or reduce the payment for a set period, let the owner take care of the place, and hope the situation gets better.

I was in the trenches for 4-5 years with REO's (foreclosed homes). Bankers have no business in real estate management or sales. They're morons. If I was running the banks I'd have fired EVERY single person I dealt with during that time. ALL of them. Also real estate brokers managing properties that have been foreclosed is a fucking joke. They don't know how to manage properties. They're sales people. I don't think we'll ever see a housing bust like that again in our lifetimes. I could be wrong, as people are prone to make the same mistakes.

The so-called "monetary theory" is only a ruse to manipulate the economy. Politicians and their campaign financiers have been benefiting from massive deficit spending (no valid budget) thereby avoiding a vote to increase in taxes. Deficit spending gives politicians more power because of the newly created "fake money" that is basically distributed at their discretion (to fight wars in Ukraine, Afghanistan and wars in the future). The Ponzi scheme of the fed hurts the poor the most as it drives inflation. The wealthy watch their assets rise in value while the poor and middle class get crushed by an increase in the cost of living, real wage reduction, and an increase in taxes. Property taxes, sale taxes, and income taxes increase. This increase in taxes reduces the opportunity for savings by the poor and middle class and can drive them into debt, risking bankruptcy instead of the opportunity for financial freedom. This is how the rich get richer and poor get poorer. Every tax increase gives your freedom to the government and their controllers.

WookieMan says

Also real estate brokers managing properties that have been foreclosed is a fucking joke.forec

Can you explain this comment? You seem to know a bit. I just don't know what you mean by "manage foreclosures".

gabbar says

The so-called "monetary theory" is only a ruse to manipulate the economy. Politicians and their campaign financiers have been benefiting from massive deficit spending (no valid budget) thereby avoiding a vote to increase in taxes.
....
The wealthy watch their assets rise in value while the poor and middle class get crushed by an increase in the cost of living, real wage reduction, and an increase in taxes.

Isn't it a contradiction?

So do you rent in inflationary times or buy a house with dropping prices? Decisions.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/212d18cc-91f0-3129-ac56-183b8cbda094/lowe%E2%80%99s-sales-drop-again-as.html

Lowe’s Sales Drop Again as Homeowners Pull Back on Discretionary Purchases

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/17/mortgage-demand-fell-last-week-even-as-rates-declined-slightly.html

Mortgage demand fell last week even as rates declined slightly

Free Pizza with house:

https://austin.culturemap.com/news/real-estate/08-16-22-austin-real-estate-report-housing-inventory-highest-levels-since-2018/

Austin housing inventory skyrockets to highest levels since 2018

GNLusedto says

Can you explain this comment? You seem to know a bit. I just don't know what you mean by "manage foreclosures".

Bank owns the property. They hire a RE broker to manage it and make sure it doesn't break (so to speak). They (brokers) then hire out another party to take care of the place. Winterizing, weekly checkups, etc. So basically 3-4 levels deep from the actual owner, the bank. Someone does AND will always drop the ball and the property gets fucked up costing the banks thousands at minimum and potentially 100's of thousands.

If you don't trust RE agents in sales, management is even worse. And that's the go to when a property forecloses unless things have changed in the last 3-4 years, which they should have. Brokers who are sales whores (which you likely know from our conversations) have no clue how to manage property. 9 out of 10 times they can't change a faucet in the bathroom or kitchen. Many are bimbos. Never trust an RE broker with managing your property. Never. They're sales people. They sell homes, don't manage. Hell most cannot manage their business without going BK at some point in the cycles of RE.

zzyzzx says

Free Pizza with house:

Waiting on free house with pizza.

zzyzzx says

Free Pizza with house:

boise is super expensive with all the CA millionnaires moving in with equity. many of those folks are moving to meridian. housing prices here are at peak, and taxes aren’t locked.

Bay Area is starting to look cheap REAL FAST...but the state and local governments worries me.

https://notthebee.com/article/hoo-boy-new-housing-construction-plunged-last-month-flashing-a-telltale-warning-sign-for-a-possible-recession

Hoo boy: New housing construction plunged last month, adding more worry of a mass housing crash

1337irr says

Bay Area is starting to look cheap REAL FAST

I wish what you wrote is true.

This summer, prices have only crashed to the Super-Expensive Super-Overpriced level of about a year or so ago.

If the prices fall by half, which would be a good thing for Local Kids and Employers in the region (and therefore for the local economy), then prices would be reasonable. Reasonable, but not cheap.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-19/mortgage-lenders-are-starting-to-go-broke-as-loan-volumes-plunge?srnd=premium

US Mortgage Lenders Are Starting to Go Broke