patrick.net

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Wolfman at Wolf Street and Mister Mish at MishTalk have excellent blog posts today about housing inventory.

Until housing prices drop more to account for +6% rate for the 30 yr mortgage, then housing inventory will accumulate.

For every 1% increase in the 30 yr mortgage rate, there should be a 10% drop in home price based on affordability standards.

Granted, since the 30 yr mortgage rate bottomed around 3% in early 2022, household income has increased about 20%. So accounting for this, home prices should be +20% below early 2022 levels.

Also home price to income ratio needs to drop more.

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Al_Sharpton_for_President says

OHH. Half Dome and full domes in the same shot.

OHH. Half Dome and full domes in the same shot.

AD says

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Wolfman at Wolf Street and Mister Mish at MishTalk have excellent blog posts today about housing inventory.

Until housing prices drop more to account for +6% rate for the 30 yr mortgage, then housing inventory will accumulate.

For every 1% increase in the 30 yr mortgage rate, there should be a 10% drop in home price based on affordability standards.

Granted, since the 30 yr mortgage rate bottomed around 3% in early 2022, household income has increased about 20%. So accounting for this, home prices should be +20% below early 2022 levels.

Also home price to income ratio needs to drop more.

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Something neither of these Gurus note is that most States have down payment assistance now for new homebuyers. It averages out at about $10k (Florida is right there in the middle of the pack). Toss in some personal savings and a few bucks from Mom and Dad and it levitates the historical price/income ratio.

Also, about 25% of houses are bought pure cash, Fuck the high mortgage rates.

Misc says

Also, about 25% of houses are bought pure cash, Fuck the high mortgage rates.

But it is the mortgaged purchases that determine prices in most markets.

zzyzzx says

Math was that guys weak subject in school. Or his contractors fucked him over. He overpaid for the house likely and then overpaid for the rehab. Outside of coastal areas, $50-75k is a solid profit on a flip. Better off working a part time job waiting for the deal. Should have waited until it was $300k. Doesn't go there, don't buy it.

Flipping is generally stupid in this market. Unless you can bird dog some senior or something looking to get rid of their house moving in with family or a home. Estate sale so to speak. The profit is minimal on flips outside of coastal areas. Even then it's tough. Gotta get to 12 months inventory and get bottom of the barrel. Either way short term cap gains are going to kill you on profit. Better off getting a multi-unit that you can eventually convert to condos after renting for 5 years.

WookieMan says

He overpaid for the house likely and then overpaid for the rehab

How does a buyer figure out if he is overpaying or not for a home? Real estate agents use comparables and this is how they justify the asking price.

gabbar says

WookieMan says

He overpaid for the house likely and then overpaid for the rehab

How does a buyer figure out if he is overpaying or not for a home? Real estate agents use comparables and this is how they justify the asking price.

comps don’t account for many things, it’s just sqft

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

Misc says

Also, about 25% of houses are bought pure cash, Fuck the high mortgage rates.

But it is the mortgaged purchases that determine prices in most markets.

Another thing that has come into being is that 34% of new buyers are coming in with downpayment assistance from Mom and Dad. When you add this to the $10k new buyer assistance from the State, it lifts the price of the house compared to price/income levels of the past. This is in addition to the 25% all cash buyers. So, yes, prices are inflated even for those with mortgages because of the extra coin being used for down payment.

gabbar says

WookieMan says

He overpaid for the house likely and then overpaid for the rehab

How does a buyer figure out if he is overpaying or not for a home? Real estate agents use comparables and this is how they justify the asking price.

Asking price means nothing. Research the owner of a property. The agent wants more commission. They do the higher price. You find the property owner or family is distress and offer a low ball number. Do that 50 times and you’ll hit.

Then don’t have shitty contractors that screw you over. Or do the work yourself.

Flipping is easy, humans don’t have patience or need money. It could take 6 months to find a flip and you’re not making money. Ultimately I’d never advise anyone to flip though. Need to educate yourself and it’s a full time job. If you have no trade skills your margins will be tiny.

People who use leverage to buy bitcorn get their clocks cleaned out regularly by whales and other actors.

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

People who use leverage to buy bitcorn get their clocks cleaned out regularly by whales and other actors.

And yet Trump is supposed to set up a Bc reserve.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

People who use leverage to buy bitcorn get their clocks cleaned out regularly by whales and other actors.

And yet Trump is supposed to set up a Bc reserve.

i’d riot if they did that. bullshit coin as i call it, nothing more than some video game currency invented scam. our government is involved in this scam, it’s obvious, they would have shit it long ago otherwise. creating pyramid schemes is illegal.

I've been one of the bigger BTC bashers. I'm still gonna have my kids toss in $100 soon. They each have about $10k roughly in cash and I want them investing it.

I won't at my age, but my oldest at 14, in 20 years before it's finished mining it will likely be worth more. How much is the question. Still worth nothing in my world, but it's a small bet and they've barely worked yet. Not gonna break the bank.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

And yet Trump is supposed to set up a Bc reserve.

Which is fine if they can't be margin called like the others I was referring to.

That's why we need to end the Fed. Yes, it would be 10-20 years of pain, but the boon to our kids, grandkids, and great grandkids would be immense.

No person that is a non USofA citizen (no dual citizenship either) should be allowed to own property in any state in the United States of America. No foreign companies or corporations either.

ForcedTQ says

No person that is a non USofA citizen (no dual citizenship either) should be allowed to own property in any state in the United States of America. No foreign companies or corporations either.

Furthermore - commodities futures markets should go back to way it used to be before the 1980's - only the producers and consumers of said commodities could participate in the futures markets that affected the products with which they were concerned. No hedge funds or "investment banks."

ForcedTQ says

No person that is a non USofA citizen (no dual citizenship either) should be allowed to own property in any state in the United States of America. No foreign companies or corporations either.

Agree with everything except dual citizenship. Would have to be a primary residence, basically you live here full time. Did it legally. I don't see a problem with that. My Canadian BIL will get dual citizenship soon. Will buy a home. Work in the states and produce something for other Americans.

Illegals shouldn't be allowed or non-primary residents. Can't just buy a home and let it sit there from China or somewhere else. Live and spend here 6+ months of the year.

Highest is 11 years? I thought this was an apocalypse.

Appalachia tool shed in Santa Cruz is now an even better bargain. This is what it costs for a beach sugar shack to enjoy thong season.

What does this have to do with housing prices?

Congruence.

The car market with tons of unsold inventory -- some even 2023 models -- need to crash drop prices low enough to clear out is also the same problem many housing markets across the nation need to do or will soon.

Dunno why these sectors can't figure out the obvious. Because YES the same actions are needed to clear out non-selling inventory on a market whether they be clearing the shelves off at WalMart or a supermarket or a carpet emporiom even a flee market stall: Either drop the damn prices enough via an EVERYTHING HAS TO GO liquidation sale OR product destruction.

If the car manufacturers designed and built cars that could be far more easily recycled, they could then do the latter even if housing can't. But noo...they don't. So crash selling it is.

But it is amazing how they fight against the waves like King Canute instead. So much for these idiots with business degrees, unlike homeowners.



https://wolfstreet.com/2024/12/04/cut-the-price-and-they-will-come-new-vehicle-sales-jump-in-november-amid-big-discounts-and-incentives-as-inventory-balloons/

Dealers were hoping the Covid times was "the new normal". I witnessed my co-worker buying a KIA for his daughter and it had $3K markup on a fucking $25K econobox. Any attempt to negotiate it down was met with "go shop around if you don't like our prices". He tried and every other dealer who even had a comparable car on the lot was marking up $5K+. He went back with his tail between his legs and paid the ask. The dealers and manufacturers held out as long as they could (hence these unsold 2023 cars on the lots), but now the race to the bottom has finally began.

I bet the holders of overpriced RE are watching stock market and wishing their money weren't tied up in the shacks...

Now homeloaners with 50 year old houses need to follow the car dealerships lead. We need 30% more, but 10% will do for the new year.

ID is next. Maybe MT. AZ at this point is semi bullet proof even though it keeps going up. CO is in the cross hairs. Nashville area is going to get the shit beat out of it in my opinion.

Vegas/NV I think does okay this time. CA I have no clue with all the Asians and illegals. San Diego seems fine. Everyone is moving out of LA though. I don't get any appeal in the Bay Area outside of a job. The weather is not all that great there. No snow, but foggy and a bad vibe.

Midwest, my area I think has a 10% floor IF it goes down at all. Chicago still has some room to lose and Milwaukee. Indy I'm not super familiar with or Detroit as they're trash cities.

Any correction is going to be minimal. Most people are locked into low interest rates. No point in moving unless you bought small and started a family. Hence why we're building. The new payment is trivial for us although it will be triple. Fucking permits need to come in tomorrow though. I've been a complete ass hole. Turnaround on this stuff is 48 business hours in my world. We're going on 6 weeks now. I want to start punching people and it might start tonight if I can make the village board meeting if I can bail early on mine.

WookieMan says

Most people are locked into low interest rates

Job Relocation, Divorce, Job Loss, Health & Death, and Retirement...

And the first four are not up to the homeloaner in most cases.

@zzyzzx

Love the chart. The sharp rise in the 80s was obviously the "greed is good" era. Part of it was Regand pro growth anti regulation approach which dragged us out of the stagflation of the 1970s.

Despite the recession in the 90s the trend reverted to a new mean almost 10x higher than the generation before. This in my view is attributeable to the rise in dual income households, either as women entered the workforce or single parents picked up second (or third) jobs.

Most of us remember the tech bubble of the late 90s and early 2000s which began the hosing bubble and subsequent collapse on '08. Things reverted back to where they would have been absent a bubble.

This happens to be when I bought my house (2012) at a nice low rate for the time (3.5% for 30 yr fixed).

We're now over a decade on and this "everything bubble" is massive. Absent a structural shift there is going to be a day of reckoning.

It could be the market collapses (again). It could be the fed intervenes and lowers rates. Banks may also loosen lending standards if the feds let them. This should help keep the party going with punch in the bowl.

But I think worst case one of two outcomes is probable. 1) we end up like the Walton's. Multi generations or multi families under one roof, so that there are three, four or six incomes coming in. Or 2) transfer of housing stock via inheritance. Or a mix of both.

For as tough as it was 20 years ago when I first started shopping for a house, it's 10x more diffult today. Covid and work from home has permanently shifted the landscape. Here in the suburbs of NYC we've seen a new wave of "city folk" moving in.

"borrowed" from @peoplesunited rapture thread

Another bubble brewing as well:

The RTO clampdown is accelerating so all these folks who moved into (formerly) inexpensive areas to spend their big city bucks are in for an awakening. I'm already being bombarded by "price lowered" alerts in Tahoe area where yons of Goolag and Fuckbook peeps moved during scamdemic. (The Tahoe area is inexpensive only relatively to the Bay Area, of course, but still.)

RWSGFY says

The RTO clampdown is accelerating

THE ATTEMPT TO ENFORCE RTO is accelerating. All to save commercial real estate sunk costs. But the reality is different.

Firms that do not pay much for office space because they have WFH vs those that do have a competitive advantage. FB, Apple, Microsoft and Google have massive sunk costs in buildings. But they have near monopoly control of their markets but those markets or monopolies won't last forever. FB is all old ppl now. GenX or older.

Other firms don't enjoy that.

And the high value employees almost always get WFH privileges no matter what. Because when they don't, they go work where that is the case.

That in turn causes problems with the hoi polloi workers "How come 300 IQ Han gets to WFH but I don't? It's because I am a trans POC, right?"

Of course right now, mgmt probably wants a lot of these hires to quit anyway.

AmericanKulak says

Job Relocation, Divorce, Job Loss, Health & Death, and Retirement...

Job relocation isn't a big one. Most people aren't married anymore and one usually keeps the house anyway. Job loss you're an idiot if you can't find a new one. I can't work full time and get dozens of offers a month. Death the kids take over the estate and see all these real estate guru's and rent it out.

Retirement is probably the biggest, but Boomers with a brain have already done what they need to. They're either wealthy and can keep the big house or were empty nesters in the 2010's and downsized already. That played into the housing crash besides shit loans. Boomers are my parents friends, none of them are moving. My mom is but she has a unique property that isn't your average home or land.

I've said I'm the anecdotal guy. I see no Uhauls on the road. No moving trucks here in IL. New houses are being built. Prices can look like a bubble, but if the loans are solid I don't see a problem. I think it's more movement of people fleeing shit states with shit policies at this point. Everyone that left IL already did. Uhaul is stacked here. So little to no out of state movement.

I think CA and the Northeast are going to bring the national median down with their high home prices. It won't be a crash though nationwide like last time. It will look bad on paper, but likely only two regions. And that might not even happen for a while.