patrick.net

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Local news copied an article from Bankrate website

https://www.wjhg.com/bankrate-article/2025/01/07/is-housing-market-going-crash-what-experts-are-saying/



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AD says

“Mortgage rates have refused to budge for several months despite multiple rounds of short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NAR. “When combined with elevated home prices, housing affordability remains a major challenge.”

Not with inflation going up .5% in January, which would be an annualized 6%.

Delistings soared 64% in 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-delistings-soar-64-highest-211447473.html

Last time that big was 2016 and the time before that was 2006

Investors are cutting losses as Rents collapse 8% in Tampa, almost 10% in Naples, down in almost every FL major market inc. Orlando and Jax.

AmericanKulak says

Investors are cutting losses as Rents collapse

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/tampa-fl/

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Central Florida Panhandle Association of Realtors (CPAR) reported around $510,000 in mid-2023 for the all time high average price for a single detached home. It's now around $405,000.

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AD says

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/tampa-fl/

Tampa Bay rents are down 8%. Why are renters still struggling?
An increase in supply has cut into prices, but not enough to align with regional incomes.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/real-estate/2025/02/11/tampa-bay-rents-are-down-8-why-are-renters-still-struggling/#:~:text=Apartment%20rents%20in%20the%20Tampa,%2C%20where%20rents%20decreased%2016%25.

Yet property taxes, insurance, HOA/condo fees up up up!

Nothing here in IL. No one is coming in, but our exodus is over. Can't find a rental or home for sale within 20-30 miles. Everything is built when a contract comes in. Usually once the seller gets a contract or the renter times the move in. Landlord has 4-5 months to find a new renter.

Different worlds.

Outmigration is one of the best ways to measure the effectiveness of state and local government programs, and by that measure, Illinois resoundingly has received a failing grade. Illinois is one of only three states to see its population shrink from 2010 to 2020, and our state’s population losses accelerated between 2022 and 2023.

Wirepoints reported that since 2000, Illinois has seen 1.6 million people migrate out of the state, according to Internal Revenue Service data. While Illinois has driven out residents from every age and income group, the most damaging exodus has been among larger money earners. Illinois consistently ranks near the top in the loss of households earning $200,000 or more. Illinois has also ranked among top states in the loss of businesses, following only New York and California. The state’s outmigration crisis is predictable, given state and local policies that undermine the most important elements of improving outcomes for Black residents: public safety and quality education.

While U.S. News & World Report ranks Illinois 15th among the states for crime and correction, we have the some of the highest rates of robbery among all states, and we are second in the Midwest for homicide rate. Meanwhile Chicago has seen an increase in violent crime since the pandemic, and the city consistently leads the nation’s cities in total number of homicides.

On schools, Illinois spends more per pupil than surrounding states. Yet test scores are abysmal as teacher unions block changes needed to improve schools that affect their members. Illinois killed a tax credit program that supported school choice, and the state legislature and governor have supported teacher union efforts to deny families even public charter school alternatives to failing neighborhood schools. Little wonder that Illinois lost 225,000 students between 2010 and 2021.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/01/10/opinion-illinois-population-exodus/

With Trump, the end of the influx of migrants with $50-80k/yr benefits to offset the fleeing middle class will finally be felt

AmericanKulak says

On schools, Illinois spends more per pupil than surrounding states. Yet test scores are abysmal as teacher unions block changes needed to improve schools that affect their members. Illinois killed a tax credit program that supported school choice, and the state legislature and governor have supported teacher union efforts to deny families even public charter school alternatives to failing neighborhood schools. Little wonder that Illinois lost 225,000 students between 2010 and 2021.

That's a Chicago thing. Blacks drag that down since they're roughly 33% of the population in Chicagoland. National average is about 13-15% I believe. My kids school is top notch for a public school.

Young white people moved out of IL because it wasn't fun. Older people retired and that's where the high income earner number comes from that left. The Tribune is not the best source. Most have already left. All I know and hang with are $150k plus or more families.

I can tell you that CA is at stage one. IL started well before 2010 as well. I've grown up with it. We're at the stage where it's stopping. JB is not a good governor is the problem still. We'll hopefully figure that out in 2026. We should be the industrial and manufacturing hub of the midwest. Between the Great Lakes, Rail, pipelines and the Mississippi River we could destroy.

Winter sucks, but if you make $300-500K I think you could live with that. Besides the ghetto people most Illinoian's make good money.

AD says

Realtors are putting more signs up, but the buyers are not coming,” said Yun.

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Still at 2021 rental price: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7562-Shadow-Lake-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/251475291_zpid/

But accounting for increase in housing costs like HOA regular assessment, property tax, and property insurance , this would mean the market price for the home would need to be no more than at 2021 levels when accounting for the townhome unit's capitalization rate or Cap Rate.

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Well, it's been a long 3 years since this thread was started. Finally, the Case/Shiller has had a month over month drop.

We will wait to see if this single data point is the beginning of a trend.

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-composite/#overview

Home Depot exec says Americans may soon embrace sky-high mortgage rates as ‘the new normal’ and invest in housing anyway

https://fortune.com/2025/02/25/home-depot-high-mortgage-rates-new-normal-housing-richard-mcphail-ted-decker/

The 30 yr mortgage rate is 6.85%, which likely means 6.35% for a VA mortgage, so I'd get the VA mortgage and buy 4 discount points to lower it to 5.35%

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

First home buyer age is already 38, up from 35 during pandemic. Average is 56, up from 49 during pandemic.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/buying-a-house-first-time-homebuyer/

There's only one way this ends as the ownership costs from insurance and property tax have rapidly passed the moon in record time and on their way to the Jovian satellites.


Trump ending the Siren Song of Globalism and Lazy Girl Millennial jobs in government/NGOs will only hasten the process.

AmericanKulak says

First home buyer age is already 38, up from 35 during pandemic. Average is 56, up from 49 during pandemic.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/buying-a-house-first-time-homebuyer/

There's only one way this ends. And it won't be by foreigners spending huge amounts of cash to live in the suburbs

And what’s that?

Glock-n-Load says

And what’s that?

Prices collapsing.

It's also the ONLY way to lower insurance and property tax bills. Lower rates don't lower those. Rates going from 7% to 4% don't lower property tax and insurance assessments, only substantial price cuts do.

Inventory. Where is it?

"Why can't we raise wages"

Sure, if you want Denny's and Bealls to be too expensive and medicare to go bankrupt.

"I demand $6.99 Moon over My Hammy AND my wife to get 3 blouses for $20 at Beall's AND my ass wiped 24-7 for $9/hr... but my primary Al Bundy special home I need to sell at $420,000 for muh retirement" "

The only way to save America is to reduce housing costs.

AD says

Home Depot exec says Americans may soon embrace sky-high mortgage rates as ‘the new normal’ and invest in housing anyway

https://fortune.com/2025/02/25/home-depot-high-mortgage-rates-new-normal-housing-richard-mcphail-ted-decker/

The 30 yr mortgage rate is 6.85%, which likely means 6.35% for a VA mortgage, so I'd get the VA mortgage and buy 4 discount points to lower it to 5.35%

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

1) But I was told here on PatNet that mortgage levels would go down!

2) Home Depot CEO must say bullshit like this. But wait! Why? See #1.

Glock-n-Load says

Inventory. Where is it?

https://www.resiclubanalytics.com/p/housing-market-where-inventory-is-above-pre-pandemic-housing-inventory-levels

Back in August 2024, only 4 states had returned to or surpassed pre-pandemic 2019 active inventory levels.

By October 2024, that number grew to 8 states.

In December 2024, that number was 9 states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Washington.

States likely to join that list soon include Oregon (which crossed it in November, only to slip back under in December), Alabama, Nebraska, Hawaii, and Georgia.

Keeping in Mind the Texas and Florida are the 2 most populous states after California and together they have many more millions than California does.

OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething says

1) But I was told here on PatNet that mortgage levels would go down!

Quote. I don't recall seeing that at all. I frankly don't want lower rates.

WookieMan says

OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething says

1) But I was told here on PatNet that mortgage levels would go down!

Quote. I don't recall seeing that at all. I frankly don't want lower rates.

I made mention back in late 2023 that I thought there was a good chance the 30 year mortgage rate would drop to 5.5% by the end of 2024.

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AD says

I made mention back in late 2023 that I thought there was a good chance the 30 year mortgage rate would drop to 5.5% by the end of 2024.

It won't. We're at normal rates. We got spoiled for over a decade. I'm fine with it building a house. Is what it is. If they go down I refi. If it doesn't I may have locked in "new" low rates. It's all relative to the time.

WookieMan says

I don't recall seeing that at all

Yes. In your world that is probably true.

Ahhhj...here we go:

May need another 12 months until it reaches steady state, so the Fed Funds rate can be lowered from currently 4.5% to 3.5%.

The 30 Yr mortgage rate should be around 6% based on it historically being around 1.5% greater than the 10 Year Treasury rate (~4.5%).

In reality:

On Wednesday, February 26, 2025, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage APR is 6.93%. The average 30-year fixed refinance APR is 6.96%, according to Bankrate's latest survey of the nation's largest mortgage lenders.

And as you mentioned, Wookie...probably they ain't going down.

But there are others here on PatNet if you search for them. Going back two years. Pushing basically the pure Hopium like our fav Home Depot CEO is (at least he's more likely correct about high rates are staying with us).

Number one reason: Massive numbers of Boomers retiring...and pulling out their equally massive savings/investments from capital markets. This was destined to happen for decades and won't reverse until Millennials start pumping up their retirement savings starting in about the 2030s.

Inflation is just the cherry on top of that.

WookieMan says

It won't. We're at normal rates. We got spoiled for over a decade

This time I am not giving Wookie shit. In fact, I 100% support the quoted statement.

Reason:

OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething says

Number one reason: Massive numbers of Boomers retiring...and pulling out their equally massive savings/investments from capital markets. This was destined to happen for decades and won't reverse until Millennials start pumping up their retirement savings starting in about the 2030s.

Inflation is just the cherry on top of that.

I'm gonna have to disagree. You see over the last few months the Biden administration has been throwing gold bricks off the Titanic. In the case of the Treasury Department this has meant issuing longer dated Bonds. The big banks have been scoffing them up, but the amount issued drove up the yields. The new Treasury secretary under Trump ain't gonna play that game and has stated that he issuing shorter term securities.

Also, the Fed is gonna stop its QT operations. This will free up some cash flow.

I'd say that over the next few months mortgage rates are gonna go down as the market manipulations end.

10-year Treasury buyers are simply not going to put up with lower rates from the Fed.

Not with inflation at 0.5% for January (6% annualized)

No matter how badly the Rate Day Dream Believers want so they can cash out...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvqeSJlgaNk

Man, I looked for Day Dream Believer and a Iraqi Dinar Believers "prophecy" appeared, LOL:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LmgQOi8uHTY

3.5 Ratey Comeback
You can blame it all on meeeeeee
I should have sold, I was wrong...
And I just can't cash out without 'cha
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmEyGiaqm7k

OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething says

Number one reason: Massive numbers of Boomers retiring...and pulling out their equally massive savings/investments from capital markets. This was destined to happen for decades and won't reverse until Millennials start pumping up their retirement savings starting in about the 2030s.

"Who could have seen Boomers selling off?! I have an MBA and all of our colleagues found this to be an unpredictable event! A Black Swan!"

I care about rates, but I don't. I know doesn't make sense. Until they hit double digits it's really a nothing burger. The new biggest generation is in buying mode. We stopped building in many places, not all places. I'm on many pages with people around my age begging to find a house in my region.

If you recently bought in Denver or Austin, you might have some issues. Florida has too many metros with a lot being tourist spots to really gauge, but certain parts are going to get MC Hammered. Probably mid major suburbs where they continued to build. Kind of all suburbs.

A nationwide crash is decades away unless monetary policy influences it. I don't think we'll see 2006-2008 loses again in our lifetimes. It was just shit lending and over building.

Idaho is probably fucked because many overpaid during the "everybody is moving to Idaho" fad. These lemming marches rarely end well.

RWSGFY says

Idaho is probably fucked because many overpaid during the "everybody is moving to Idaho" fad. These lemming marches rarely end well.

We almost closed on a home in the Avimor community, but finally bought a place in Greenville, SC. Downtown Boise did seem to have quite a bit of hipster types, but I never got to know any, so can only judge by appearance.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

RWSGFY says

Idaho is probably fucked because many overpaid during the "everybody is moving to Idaho" fad. These lemming marches rarely end well.

We almost closed on a home in the Avimor community, but finally bought a place in Greenville, SC. Downtown Boise did seem to have quite a bit of hipster types, but I never got to know any, so can only judge by appearance.

I like the area, but Bozeman, MT is similar. The houses are massively overpriced. My buddies say look how much I'm making on the house.... I then ask did you sell? You didn't make anything. That area is due for a hipster crash.

$500k for a shitty built subdivision house in MT where there's millions of acres to build? Great friends out there, but that's an area due for a crash of 30-40%. Not housing related, but they have bad food there surprisingly. Real bad. You have to drive an hour to get good stuff.

Well, you are paying for the location. That adds a premium to the price.

The Avimor community north of Downtown Boise is very nice. Foothills hiking trails right out the door. But as my wife complained, where are the trees? It’s high desert, which is fine by me. Very cold winters and very hot summers. But mostly white people.

We bought a place very walkable from downtown Greenville and the very beautiful Falls Park on the Reedy and Swamp Rabbit Trail. Less black people in SC than Maryland, surprisingly, and while hot and humid summers, Maryland’s are actually worse. The current Maryland home goes live this week, and if we net 93% of the sales price, we’d only have paid $140k for our Greenville home.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Less black people in SC than Maryland, surprisingly, and while hot and humid summers, Maryland’s are actually worse.

I can confirm that Maryland summers are hot and humid! As in I could probably move to Florida and not notice the difference. Almost definitely not retiring here, but not because of the weather.

Misc says

I'm gonna have to disagree. You see over the last few months the Biden administration has been throwing gold bricks off the Titanic. In the case of the Treasury Department this has meant issuing longer dated Bonds. The big banks have been scoffing them up, but the amount issued drove up the yields. The new Treasury secretary under Trump ain't gonna play that game and has stated that he issuing shorter term securities.

Also, the Fed is gonna stop its QT operations. This will free up some cash flow.

I'd say that over the next few months mortgage rates are gonna go down as the market manipulations end.

Doesn't change the demographic effect nor the fiscal dominance effect, tho.

The median home price is the second worst measure for home prices, after “average home prices” (sum of all home prices divided by number of homes). Today, there are far better methods available, based on huge amounts of data from all sources, including public records, with sales-pairs relationships.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/02/21/buyers-strike-crushes-green-shoots-of-demand-for-existing-homes-amid-surging-supply-active-listings-days-on-market/

zzyzzx says

I can confirm that Maryland summers are hot and humid! As in I could probably move to Florida and not notice the difference.

Never got the negativity towards humidity. I wear pants and long sleeves in IL and we get just as much humidity as FL or other east coast states for parts of the year. We get IWOG wet bulbed.

AmericanKulak says

This is the only stat that should be focused on if you're looking at value. Literally the only one. There's so many layers to it. Inventory can go up for probably 50 reasons. You need to figure those out.

For FL I'm guessing boomers and the older generations are starting to die and the family doesn't want the home. That's where the boomer crash would come from. Not from when they likely already sold their lifetime home, that's already done.

It's retirement areas that will take a beating. Hell some neighborhoods you couldn't even live there so you're forced to sell it because you're too young by the HOA rules.