patrick.net

Misc says

AmericanKulak says
Florida is now #1 among all states for unsold inventory, at nearly 180k houses, highest since 2008.

Second highest is Texas, with "Only" 140k houses.

Nothing a few million more illegals can't cure.

From what I've read online such as Florida Politics page, Florida Today, etc the state is diversifying its economy.

Where I live in the Florida panhandle there is a shipyard that builds Coast Guard ships, off shore vessels, tug boats, ferry boats, and is vying to build Navy ships.

And we have other manufacturing like Berg Pipe, Trane Air Conditioning, an industrial washing machine manufacturer, an outboard motor manufacturing facility, a small pleasure fishing boat manufacturer, etc

They also have a few software companies here as well.

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Patrick says

ForcedTQ says

But, rate per 100k is lowest it’s been since 2018….

Florida has had a massive increase in population which is probably making average age there much younger than it used to be.

The growth in Florida panhandle like Bay County is due to the shipyard growing, Tyndall Air Force Base growing its drone program, and manufacturing base growing as well as they brought in tech companies like accounting software company and they have an incubator called Tech Farms which has created a few startups that local private capital investors (mostly restaurant / bar owners, lawyers and doctors) are funding.

I know this also by following the amount of school bonds issued by county in Florida for new construction as well as expansion of existing schools.

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AD says

Will have to see the reason for any recovery of Illinois population such as new manufacturing jobs for young married couple, etc

It's not about "recovery" here. We stopped building for 20 years. Florida kept building after the crash as northerns move down there. That phase is done. Boomers are retired. The buying is done. FL overbuilt.

That's the FL market and not the overall market. I would not be buying in FL, TX or CA right now.

WookieMan says

That's the FL market and not the overall market.

You never bring up the income tax, sales tax and property tax even in rural Illinois.

Yes, and I noticed they stop construction even in Panama City Beach such as with Hathaway Luxury Apartments (down street from Hathaway Bridge), which they excavated and then stopped work.

And there are boomers who are now 55 years to 65 years old who are getting ready to move to Florida.

And that is why I said Florida has been diversifying its economy so is not only about growth from retirees moving there and tourism, at least I am seeing that firsthand in the Florida panhandle.

And Patrick brings up a good point as I heard the same thing on local NPR news that Florida's population is getting younger.

So they will adjust housing inventory based on population trends in Florida. They overbuild and then you have a 20% price drop and then they start building again.

Glad though we bought in 2016 and not around 2022.

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AD says

And there are boomers who are now 55

Those are GenX, not Boomers.

MolotovCocktail says

AD says

And there are boomers who are now 55

Those are GenX, not Boomers.

The boomer ship has sailed at this point. Those that could retire did. The others will just keep working or die. My parents are/were boomers. My mom has already been retired for 10 years. Sold everything off.

Boomers are only a factor in healthcare at this point. Not housing. Younger generation just can’t afford the housing and few are building.

Boomers were 1946 - 1964.

GenX 1965 - 1980

Millennials 1981 - 1996.

WookieMan says

Boomers are only a factor in healthcare at this point. Not housing.

Holding huge amounts of housing is a factor in housing.

MolotovCocktail says

AD says

And there are boomers who are now 55

Those are GenX, not Boomers.

Okay, I meant to say older Gen X types like those 55 and only 2 years until minimum retirement age (MRA) for their government jobs like federal, police, fireman, etc

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I know Bay County, Florida and particularly Panama City Beach government actively tracks demographic trends as far as zoning, housing development, etc

As Larry Sabato says, demographics is destiny.

I always enjoyed listening to Ken Gronbach on Coast to Coast AM. He brings up how Levis Strauss was too set on baby boomers and never accounted for that younger generations may not have as much interest in its jeans.

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MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

Boomers are only a factor in healthcare at this point. Not housing.

Holding huge amounts of housing is a factor in housing.

If they're not selling it doesn't matter. They give it to their kids. No transaction happens and it doesn't move the market. Fact is those that wanted to sell already did. Factor in low interest rates most got, housing isn't moving in a meaningful way up or down.

I was employed in RE and finances for 15+ years. Eman maybe had me on investment property when he was around, but no one here is at my knowledge level. Reading articles and listing to "news" is not actively participating in the trade.

WookieMan says

If they're not selling it doesn't matter

Wrong. It matters. Just like foreigners who own vacant condos in Vancouver and SF impact their housing markets.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

If they're not selling it doesn't matter

Wrong. It matters. Just like foreigners who own vacant condos in Vancouver and SF impact their housing markets.

Building matters. Not holding. We haven't built in 2 decades in most of the country. There's no inventory. I'm not sure why you can't understand that. I've been saying it for years. Boomers already sold or are holding and very few are building to keep up with population. This is basic 5th grade math.

WookieMan says

Building matters. Not holding.

Yes building matters. But holding doesn't is bullshit. Because that effects the NET new building we require.

Old folk won't move out of their 4 bedroom homes into a smaller abode so a young family can move in.

Then again, you think driving distance somehow means that rural package deliveries outnumbers urban.

MolotovCocktail says

Old folk won't move out of their 4 bedroom homes into a smaller abode so a young family can move in.

They usually never did. My grandparents didn't. All the boomers and their children I'm friends with own the same home from when they were 25-35.

We also lost over a decade of skilled trades. My plumber and electrician friends don't even hang out anymore. They're working 12 hour+ days. Builders can't build if they don't have the labor. Younger generation are not wanting to get into trades doubling down on the shortage.

This is why housing has gotten so high and will continue to in most places.

MolotovCocktail says

Then again, you think driving distance somehow means that rural package deliveries outnumbers urban.

Explain why? I never said delivery quantity. More distance driving to get the same number of packages to an address than urban areas. This is basic common sense. To deliver 600 packages in a rural area you're going to have to drive double the amount at minimum. Don't worry, I've done it and wife was in shipping out of college.

I go off what I know, not what I "think" I know. I don't run my mouth here talking about stuff I haven't experience or know first hand.

WookieMan says

Eman maybe had me on investment property when he was around, but no one here is at my knowledge level.

Hey, I am feeling left out here. After all I did have to educate you on waterfront properties with septics, plus how assessments outside your local experience actually can increase by over $2k in a single year.

HeadSet says

WookieMan says

Eman maybe had me on investment property when he was around, but no one here is at my knowledge level.

Hey, I am feeling left out here. After all I did have to educate you on waterfront properties with septics, plus how assessments outside your local experience actually can increase by over $2k in a single year.

Assessments increase because you let them. Appeal. Come in with data. I've never lost one out of dozens for myself and family.

I don't recall the septic thing. They're on every waterfront property in Wisconsin not in Milwaukee or Madison. They're sized based on the number of bathrooms. There are also different kids of septic systems. Just has to be sized to the house and bathrooms. Not sure what you're talking about.

MolotovCocktail says

Boomers were 1946 - 1964.

GenX 1965 - 1980

Millennials 1981 - 1996.

Gen X here. boomers they are all retired with money in annuities if they have any. most whom I know , live off social security, barely scraping by. they are selling in cities moving to lower cost living areas to die in peace.

WookieMan says

go off what I know, not what I "think" I know

No. You go off on total bullshit.

WookieMan says

don't run my mouth here talking about stuff I haven't experience or know first hand.

What? I don't know what grandparents are?

WookieMan says

never said delivery quantity.

You responded as such. Now that you got caught, you are trying to deny it.

You do this all the time.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

never said delivery quantity.

You responded as such. Now that you got caught, you are trying to deny it.

You do this all the time.

Brothers in Christ, please learn to put up with each other and let things go, none of it is important. It is what Christ called us to and apostle Paul reminded us about, let it go and love one another in Christ.

MolotovCocktail says

You do this all the time.

You are fighting the good fight against either a master level troll or a complete moron.

Use the ignore function - it's made Patnet a much better place for me.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says
go off what I know, not what I "think" I know

No. You go off on total bullshit.

Good rebuttal. Lol. I know more than anyone on this site about real estate. Reading a bunch of crap here or media has demolished your brain and thought process. Keep being the the crazy person in the room. You're outmatched.

WookieMan says

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says
go off what I know, not what I "think" I know

No. You go off on total bullshit.

Good rebuttal. Lol. I know more than anyone on this site about real estate. Reading a bunch of crap here or media has demolished your brain and thought process. Keep being the the crazy person in the room. You're outmatched.

oh i don’t know about that. there were 2 very smart fellas here that did well in RE in california. Eman and pkennedy. those guys knew a lot. but i’m not doubting you. just saying there are very smart guys here. i’m not that RE savvy myself. i’m just an ordinary landlord, not an investor.

Fortwaye says

oh i don’t know about that. there were 2 very smart fellas here that did well in RE in california. Eman and pkennedy. those guys knew a lot. but i’m not doubting you. just saying there are very smart guys here. i’m not that RE savvy myself. i’m just an ordinary landlord, not an investor.

They were ordinary landlords as well. I studied for 6 years and did it for 15 actively. Rentals are not the market everyone here wants to know about. They want to know if they should buy or if their home value is going to drop. I know that. I know 1,000 brokers, lenders, attorneys, inspectors. No one here does.

I also know how to run a brokerage and business. I'm semi retired at 41 and just have fun. You don't get there without knowing what you're doing. So I take offense, not at you, but when others talk out their ass.

WookieMan says

I know more than anyone on this site about real estate

stfu says

You are fighting the good fight against either a master level troll or a complete moron.

^^^ He only trolls when he gets caught being a moron. Therefore, he's not being a complete moron, I'll give him that.

This last one is also the action figure for a recruiter in the tech industry.

I loved being attacked when I'm right. It's kind of comical for me. Makes me know I'm right.

WookieMan says

Fortwaye says

oh i don’t know about that. there were 2 very smart fellas here that did well in RE in california. Eman and pkennedy. those guys knew a lot. but i’m not doubting you. just saying there are very smart guys here. i’m not that RE savvy myself. i’m just an ordinary landlord, not an investor.

They were ordinary landlords as well. I studied for 6 years and did it for 15 actively. Rentals are not the market everyone here wants to know about. They want to know if they should buy or if their home value is going to drop. I know that. I know 1,000 brokers, lenders, attorneys, inspectors. No one here does.

I also know how to run a brokerage and business. I'm semi retired at 41 and just have fun. You don't get there without knowing what you're doing. So I take offense, not at you, but when others talk out their ass.

that’s awesome. i never learned anything about that industry. would like to, but never know where to start. just know how to basic landlord.

WookieMan says

I loved being attacked when I'm right. It's kind of comical for me. Makes me know I'm right.

You being called out for being full if shit isn't an attack. It's a public service.

ForcedTQ says

Willing to bet most home owners were at one time renters who save.

Haha, didn't you know, everyone goes straight from high school and college to homeowner.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

I loved being attacked when I'm right. It's kind of comical for me. Makes me know I'm right.

You being called out for being full if shit isn't an attack. It's a public service.

I'm not petty to troll most the users here. Name a point you made where it wasn't a Lebron James pounding his feet for not getting a foul called? Those are you comments and posts. No content or thought. It's turned into all images now. Can't even write a coherent comment.

Mirrors work. Look at your comments and posts. Sexy picture thread? That's something a gay would do to cover up their gayness. Projecting projecting straightness when it's a lie.

WookieMan says

I'm not petty to troll most the users here.

Yes, you are. Or are you now admitting that you post bullshit because you don't know what you are talking about?

Speaking of your bullshit:

WookieMan says

Name a point you made where it wasn't a Lebron James pounding his feet for not getting a foul called?

I don't think I have ever posted about LeBron at all. But maybe I should start purely in reference to you.

WookieMan says

Can't even write a coherent comment.

Again: full of shit, LeBron.

MolotovCocktail says

Doesn't seem correct.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/money/will-a-recession-lower-home-prices-impact-on-housing-market-explained/vi-AA1CBGHS?t=60

GNL says

Doesn't seem correct.

True or false: Is it now 7.5%?

MolotovCocktail says

GNL says

Doesn't seem correct.

True or false: Is it now 7.5%?

What difference does it make?? The people that couldn't buy at 4% interest aren't going to magically come out of the woodwork and buy homes at 7.5% to 15%. Builders won't build if there's no demand and rates are higher. Inventory will stay low in most places as no one is moving.

Those that can buy or build will. There's an extra 5-10% of the potential market that cannot buy for the foreseeable future without income increases or employment advances. Doesn't mean a crash like some want. The loans are good and we're not overbuilding for the few that afford to buy. Boomers have retired and moved or are working the rest of their lives and not moving. That whole idea is water under the bridge at this point and won't move the market.

Want lower prices, build. You have to know the economics of building though. Prices for the materials aren't worth breaking ground more so than interest rates. These aren't the bull shit mortgage times where build it and they'll come. Materials need to come down to build. That's not looking promising.

Expect a decade like 1985-1995 as Millennials get more money and established. Basically sideways for home ownership. I think Gen Z will be slow to ownership because of prices, not interest rates. If ownership goes up builders have more confidence and building goes up which suppresses prices but they can still make money with the smaller houses being built now.

WookieMan says

What difference does it make?? The people that couldn't buy at 4% interest aren't going to magically come out of the woodwork and buy homes at 7.5% to 15%. Builders won't build if there's no demand and rates are higher. Inventory will stay low in most places as no one is moving.

You say, "What difference does A make?" and then proceed in the next sentence to describe just what the difference is. A good detailed description, yes. But one we are all already familiar with.

So what's your point and why are you making it?

MolotovCocktail says

So what's your point and why are you making it?

Because no one is selling and no one is buying. It's not because of interest rates. It's income. We're in a stalemate with most real estate outside of coastal areas. Those areas could see a drop, but nothing significant.

Interest rates are not the problem is the main point. If you can buy or build, you do it. I'm at $100k on just concrete on the build. I'm in the game and have been for almost 20 years. Building, buying, selling, land lording, accounting, basically running a business. Give me your experience that is not some whores picture. I feel sorry for your parents if they're still around.