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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   645,834 views  6,333 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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6191   MolotovCocktail   2025 Apr 14, 9:18am  






This last one is also the action figure for a recruiter in the tech industry.
6192   WookieMan   2025 Apr 14, 9:19am  

I loved being attacked when I'm right. It's kind of comical for me. Makes me know I'm right.
6193   Fortwaye   2025 Apr 14, 9:20am  

WookieMan says

Fortwaye says


oh i don’t know about that. there were 2 very smart fellas here that did well in RE in california. Eman and pkennedy. those guys knew a lot. but i’m not doubting you. just saying there are very smart guys here. i’m not that RE savvy myself. i’m just an ordinary landlord, not an investor.

They were ordinary landlords as well. I studied for 6 years and did it for 15 actively. Rentals are not the market everyone here wants to know about. They want to know if they should buy or if their home value is going to drop. I know that. I know 1,000 brokers, lenders, attorneys, inspectors. No one here does.

I also know how to run a brokerage and business. I'm semi retired at 41 and just have fun. You don't get there without knowing what you're doing. So I take offense, not at you, but when others talk out their ass.


that’s awesome. i never learned anything about that industry. would like to, but never know where to start. just know how to basic landlord.
6194   MolotovCocktail   2025 Apr 14, 9:24am  

WookieMan says

I loved being attacked when I'm right. It's kind of comical for me. Makes me know I'm right.


You being called out for being full if shit isn't an attack. It's a public service.
6195   GNL   2025 Apr 14, 10:39am  

ForcedTQ says

Willing to bet most home owners were at one time renters who save.

Haha, didn't you know, everyone goes straight from high school and college to homeowner.
6196   WookieMan   2025 Apr 14, 1:30pm  

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says


I loved being attacked when I'm right. It's kind of comical for me. Makes me know I'm right.


You being called out for being full if shit isn't an attack. It's a public service.

I'm not petty to troll most the users here. Name a point you made where it wasn't a Lebron James pounding his feet for not getting a foul called? Those are you comments and posts. No content or thought. It's turned into all images now. Can't even write a coherent comment.

Mirrors work. Look at your comments and posts. Sexy picture thread? That's something a gay would do to cover up their gayness. Projecting projecting straightness when it's a lie.
6197   MolotovCocktail   2025 Apr 15, 8:26am  

WookieMan says


I'm not petty to troll most the users here.


Yes, you are. Or are you now admitting that you post bullshit because you don't know what you are talking about?

Speaking of your bullshit:

WookieMan says


Name a point you made where it wasn't a Lebron James pounding his feet for not getting a foul called?


I don't think I have ever posted about LeBron at all. But maybe I should start purely in reference to you.

WookieMan says


Can't even write a coherent comment.


Again: full of shit, LeBron.
6200   MolotovCocktail   2025 Apr 15, 10:36am  

GNL says

Doesn't seem correct.


True or false: Is it now 7.5%?
6201   WookieMan   2025 Apr 15, 11:14am  

MolotovCocktail says

GNL says


Doesn't seem correct.


True or false: Is it now 7.5%?

What difference does it make?? The people that couldn't buy at 4% interest aren't going to magically come out of the woodwork and buy homes at 7.5% to 15%. Builders won't build if there's no demand and rates are higher. Inventory will stay low in most places as no one is moving.

Those that can buy or build will. There's an extra 5-10% of the potential market that cannot buy for the foreseeable future without income increases or employment advances. Doesn't mean a crash like some want. The loans are good and we're not overbuilding for the few that afford to buy. Boomers have retired and moved or are working the rest of their lives and not moving. That whole idea is water under the bridge at this point and won't move the market.

Want lower prices, build. You have to know the economics of building though. Prices for the materials aren't worth breaking ground more so than interest rates. These aren't the bull shit mortgage times where build it and they'll come. Materials need to come down to build. That's not looking promising.

Expect a decade like 1985-1995 as Millennials get more money and established. Basically sideways for home ownership. I think Gen Z will be slow to ownership because of prices, not interest rates. If ownership goes up builders have more confidence and building goes up which suppresses prices but they can still make money with the smaller houses being built now.


6202   MolotovCocktail   2025 Apr 15, 12:03pm  

WookieMan says

What difference does it make?? The people that couldn't buy at 4% interest aren't going to magically come out of the woodwork and buy homes at 7.5% to 15%. Builders won't build if there's no demand and rates are higher. Inventory will stay low in most places as no one is moving.


You say, "What difference does A make?" and then proceed in the next sentence to describe just what the difference is. A good detailed description, yes. But one we are all already familiar with.

So what's your point and why are you making it?
6203   WookieMan   2025 Apr 15, 12:31pm  

MolotovCocktail says

So what's your point and why are you making it?

Because no one is selling and no one is buying. It's not because of interest rates. It's income. We're in a stalemate with most real estate outside of coastal areas. Those areas could see a drop, but nothing significant.

Interest rates are not the problem is the main point. If you can buy or build, you do it. I'm at $100k on just concrete on the build. I'm in the game and have been for almost 20 years. Building, buying, selling, land lording, accounting, basically running a business. Give me your experience that is not some whores picture. I feel sorry for your parents if they're still around.
6204   The_Deplorable   2025 Apr 15, 4:13pm  

WookieMan says
"Because no one is selling and no one is buying."

That goes against historical trends where higher interest rates meant lower housing prices.

Question: How come today's sellers are not lowering housing prices? Who are these
people?

Answer: Today's sellers are mostly Globalists with an endless supply of money and they
are in effect maintaining the housing bubble...

My take is that the endless supply of money is coming to an end and the price of housing
is going to collapse. Frankly, a person making $50,000 a year cannot afford a
$500,000 house.
6205   GNL   2025 Apr 15, 4:46pm  

MolotovCocktail says

GNL says


Doesn't seem correct.


True or false: Is it now 7.5%?

It moved that much in a little over a week? I don't follow rates but, that seems like a lot in such a short time, no?
6206   GNL   2025 Apr 15, 4:52pm  

The_Deplorable says

Frankly, a person making $50,000 a year cannot afford a
$500,000 house.

In my opinion, a dual 100K income shouldn't even be paying that much unless they are putting a significant downpayment.
6207   WookieMan   2025 Apr 15, 5:11pm  

The_Deplorable says

That goes against historical trends where higher interest rates meant lower housing prices.

Boomer sold when the rates were low. Anyone else is staying put at a low rate. Without inventory prices stay high as builders are going at a snails pace. This is not at all difficult to comprehend.
6208   WookieMan   2025 Apr 15, 5:14pm  

GNL says

In my opinion, a dual 100K income shouldn't even be paying that much unless they are putting a significant downpayment.

I agree with this. Until there's an income increase this will go sideways for 5-10 years in most markets. We'll see if Trump can do it. I still don't see a crash though. Rates would have to hit 10% plus and incomes and employment drops significantly. Not happening.
6209   Fortwaye   2025 Apr 15, 5:31pm  

GNL says

The_Deplorable says


Frankly, a person making $50,000 a year cannot afford a
$500,000 house.

In my opinion, a dual 100K income shouldn't even be paying that much unless they are putting a significant downpayment.


many dual income 100 can’t. take cost of living, cost of having kids (assume they aren’t childless), they’ll be scraping by. that’s a 4k housing cost with insurance and taxes. maybe a 300k house is within such couple range, nice starter home.
6210   MolotovCocktail   2025 Apr 15, 6:13pm  

WookieMan says

Because no one is selling and no one is buying. It's not because of interest rates. It's income.


Get that. But 7.5% rates isn't going to make a difference when ppl qualify on the margin? Ot can make all the difference.
6211   WookieMan   2025 Apr 15, 7:40pm  

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says
Because no one is selling and no one is buying. It's not because of interest rates. It's income.

Get that. But 7.5% rates isn't going to make a difference when ppl qualify on the margin? Ot can make all the difference.

Do the math on a 2.5% increase or decline on a nice round number $100k. Don't go out to eat once a month with the family if is goes up. You're talking $150/mo going from 5 to 7.5%.

I get houses don't cost $100k but wanted to keep the math simple. If you can't afford that on a $300-400k house, which is technically high across the country price wise, you're not buying. If you're not buying, no one is selling with rates locked in at 4%.

No point in buying and no point in selling. That's where we are and have been.
6212   AmericanKulak   2025 Apr 15, 8:23pm  

There was some stupid survey, maybe by NAR, about buyers waiting "Until 30-year rates go down in the next few months back to 5%"

Stupid from every angle.
6213   ForcedTQ   2025 Apr 15, 8:42pm  

Fortwaye says

GNL says


The_Deplorable says



Frankly, a person making $50,000 a year cannot afford a
$500,000 house.

In my opinion, a dual 100K income shouldn't even be paying that much unless they are putting a significant downpayment.



many dual income 100 can’t. take cost of living, cost of having kids (assume they aren’t childless), they’ll be scraping by. that’s a 4k housing cost with insurance and taxes. maybe a 300k house is within such couple range, nice starter home.


To truly “afford” a 500k house with a 30yr at 6.48, 20% down, you’d need to be taking home $12,824/month. That’s 25% of take home for PITI, otherwise you’re house poor and will wind up being unable to afford other things in life, not be able to have adequate emergency fund, difficult to fund adequate retirement, etc. Bump it to 30-35% at this high of income, probably be ok, but the 25% number is there to keep people from getting in trouble and making mistakes, a guideline. Yes, a Ramsey number, that should really be applied to a 15yr loan max, so you actually need an even higher income or bigger down to afford the $500k.
6214   WookieMan   2025 Apr 15, 9:35pm  

ForcedTQ says

To truly “afford” a 500k house with a 30yr at 6.48, 20% down, you’d need to be taking home $12,824/month. That’s 25% of take home for PITI, otherwise you’re house poor and will wind up being unable to afford other things in life, not be able to have adequate emergency fund, difficult to fund adequate retirement, etc. Bump it to 30-35% at this high of income, probably be ok, but the 25% number is there to keep people from getting in trouble and making mistakes, a guideline. Yes, a Ramsey number, that should really be applied to a 15yr loan max, so you actually need an even higher income or bigger down to afford the $500k.

If you don't have kids that's easily achievable. Doing it with 3 kids on a $700k build currently. As I've said in other comments, income. If no one is going to buy your house and you're locked in at 4% and buyers can't afford the price, there will be no inventory. You just stay put as no one can buy it.

The Boomers are done. Their sales already happened or they're staying and handing it down to the kids. If the kids decide to sell that's one thing, but someone will likely end up living there in the family.
6216   AmericanKulak   2025 Apr 17, 1:27am  

The_Deplorable says


Question: How come today's sellers are not lowering housing prices? Who are these
people?

Sellers are infamous for seeing their house as the Taj Mahal, and recent gainz have conditioned them to feel entitled to the appreciation price increases over the past few years.

"They don't have to sell" is misleading. Many people want or HAVE to move back from remote work, have seen the cost of homeownership skyrocket so that with a low rate and a then-cheaper house, the 30% rises in prop tax and insurance have pummeled them on a house many could barely get into in the first place. They look and see how cheap it is to rent now ($1700 and dropping monthly from well over $2300 at peak COVID)

Retail sellers are always the last to know and usually hold the bag. Although in this case it's hard to feel sorry for them.

Home Builders have been biting the bullet early this time around and in many areas from TN to TX to FL, builders are underbidding their own previous phases to the great shock of recent buyers in them. Add to that Builders offer incentives and freebies that homeloaners can't.

Smartass Sam of Seacaucus who brought in Orlando 5 years ago thinks he's slick, but he can't match DR Horton's 5% incentives and the free Whirlpool appliance and tile upgrades.

In Palm Bay it's getting to the point where 90s era homeloaners are almost neck-and-neck with new builds with as much or more sq ft and far more modern conveniences. Why NOT pay 5% more to get a new build with warranty, 18-24 month 5% rate incentives, major upgrades over a 30-year old house at the full rate and the rose & green paint scheme and the 45 degree corner kitchen?

$180k Florida Homes were normal 6 years ago, and there's simply too many people who remember and are refusing to pay $280k for the same or worse old house. Certainly not in the current economic climate.

As always, homeloan sellers will cut their prices long after the investors and builders, and then have to compensate with big cuts.

Tampa, Naples, St. Pete are getting absolutely nuked, it's spreading to Orlando, Jax is often the least wild of all Florida regions, but Miami is showing signs of real decline now in prices.
6217   AmericanKulak   2025 Apr 17, 1:38am  

Just FYI, Zillow and I believe Redfin have altered their 2025 forecasts downwards several times since just the end of last year.
6218   AmericanKulak   2025 Apr 17, 10:10am  

WookieMan says


The Boomers are done. Their sales already happened or they're staying and handing it down to the kids. If the kids decide to sell that's one thing, but someone will likely end up living there in the family.

"I can't understand why somebody doesn't want to live in the Villages surrounded by grouchy old people who vote down all the school money and doesn't want to commute an hour to Orlando in heavy traffic!" - Boomer or their Millie children homesellers in 2030
6219   AD   2025 Apr 17, 2:47pm  

AmericanKulak says


WookieMan says


The Boomers are done. Their sales already happened or they're staying and handing it down to the kids. If the kids decide to sell that's one thing, but someone will likely end up living there in the family.

"I can't understand why somebody doesn't want to live in the Villages surrounded by grouchy old people who vote down all the school money and doesn't want to commute an hour to Orlando in heavy traffic!" - Boomer or their Millie children homesellers in 2030



so you think The Villages will be a ghost town ? or not as worse but there will be a depreciation of home value there ?

that is why I like Panama City and Bay County area diversifying its economy among tourism (ecotourism of Beach, the two major military bases, Eastern Shipyard, Berg Pipe, Trane HVAC manufacturing plant, etc), the boat outboard engine manufacturing plant and testing site, etc

and they are trying to establish small scale of senior living homes by leveraging heavily on technology like Amazon Alexa and Visiting Angels

https://developer.amazon.com/en-US/alexa/seniorliving

and they are bringing in industrial manufacturers to the industrial area next to the airport

the biggest advantage is that Panama City is within about a 16 hour drive of Chicago , and about 5 hours within Atlanta

.
6220   AD   2025 Apr 17, 7:07pm  

.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1841-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87634148_zpid/

All the upgrades and renewals boosted unit 1841's value by about $40,000 ; so an unmodeled AND "original" MEP systems like HVAC, unit 1841 would sell for around $235,000

what is ironic is that it sold for around $272,000 this month which is the same maximum price it sold during the 2003 to 2006 housing bubble

.
6221   AmericanKulak   2025 Apr 19, 7:44pm  

D.R. Horton’s first-quarter earnings fell short of estimates on Thursday with the company cutting its full-year forecasts.

Executives said sales in the start of the spring season have been slower than expected.

A number of homebuilders are set to report their own results in the next two weeks.

D.R. Horton (DHI) on Thursday became the latest homebuilder to raise concerns about the housing market as it fell short of estimates.

The company cut its full-year forecasts for both revenue and homes closed as its first-quarter results missed expectations, saying that the spring selling season has "started slower than expected" amid concerns over affordability and worsening consumer confidence. (The shares rose yesterday, likely aided by an expanded buyback plan and encouraging margins.)

That could increase the focus on the next round of results due from the industry. PulteGroup (PHM), Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC), Meritage Homes (MTH), Tri Pointe Homes (TPH), Century Communities (CCS), and M/I Homes (MHO) each report next week, with NVR (NVR), LGI Homes (LGIH), and Green Brick Partners (GRBK) are due the week after.

D.R. Horton's report echoed others that have already arrived. KB Home (KBH), Lennar (LEN) and Toll Brothers (TOL) have all said they have seen a slow housing market in the first quarter. D.R. Horton COO Michael Murray said in Thursday's earnings call that affordability remains a "pressure point" for homebuyers, per an AlphaSense transcript.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/d-r-horton-lamented-slow-174324907.html

Again, the spread between new and old in FL is very small. If new can't sell with incentives so builders were forced to cut more... that is not a good sign.
6222   AmericanKulak   2025 Apr 19, 7:45pm  

AD says


so you think The Villages will be a ghost town ? or not as worse but there will be a depreciation of home value there ?


Not quite a ghost town, depending IF Orlando diversifies it's economy, finally.
6223   AD   2025 Apr 19, 9:13pm  

AmericanKulak says

AD says

so you think The Villages will be a ghost town ? or not as worse but there will be a depreciation of home value there ?

Not quite a ghost town, depending IF Orlando diversifies it's economy, finally.


Good point as its about 58 miles from the center of The Villages to downtown Orlando.

There could be job centers like tech and manufacturing on the northwest side of Orlando and its outer suburbs like Clermont so the drive would only be about 42 miles.

Reminds me of Linden and Front Royal Virginia which have become bedroom communities for those that work 30 miles away in the outer suburbs of Washington DC like Haymarket and Manassas.

.
6225   AmericanKulak   2025 Apr 19, 11:21pm  

AD says


There could be job centers like tech and manufacturing on the northwest side of Orlando and its outer suburbs like Clermont so the drive would only be about 42 miles.

Orlando has a looooong way to go until it is anything like SFBA, Boston, etc. Apopka is famous for... nurseries. It is still mostly wiping elderly ass, hotel housekeeping, and taking tickets for the Mouse.

Florida's main problem - UNLIKE Texas - is the lack of diversified industry. Florida is ass wiping, early bird special server, and shuttle bus driver. Most of the cruise ships get their maintenance in third world ports. A few get into a growing city selling insurance or real estate or mortgage origination; Florida is also very growth dependent. It's great for NJ and MN city workers or teachers with $70k/year in retirement.

This was fine when the min wage was $7+/hr and one could rent a non-ghetto 2 bedroom for $700/month and the Diner or Shoney's (defunct?) was $3.99 for a Burger or Bacon, Eggs, Toast

I sometimes wonder if Residential Real Estate Developers fight against Industry coming to FL.

Consider the source, but yeah, the $13/hr at McDs is mandatory state minimum, which states with far lower living costs implemented years ago. Ending credentialism from UNarmed Security Guard, Nurses Aid, etc. - jobs that traditionally didn't require weeks of coursework and exams - would be more helpful - but of course that's not wanted by politicians who take money to require these programs at employee expense (also not Traditional Americanism, those were borne by the employer historically for non-pro, non-skilled trade employees) to reduce insurance costs for businesses.
https://www.wusf.org/politics-issues/2025-03-26/florida-lawmakers-want-lower-minimum-wage-some-workers
6226   AmericanKulak   2025 Apr 20, 12:35am  

Florida's nursing shortage might be because it's dead last in pay for Nurses, lower than Arkansas, Louisiana, and even West Virginia. But it sure ain't priced like Arkansas and West Virginia.
https://www.ziprecruiter.com/Salaries/What-Is-the-Average-RN-Salary-by-State
6227   AD   2025 Apr 20, 10:16am  

AmericanKulak says


This was fine when the min wage was $7+/hr and one could rent a non-ghetto 2 bedroom for $700/month and the Diner or Shoney's (defunct?) was $3.99 for a Burger or Bacon, Eggs, Toast


Good point on the standard of living (and cost of living) in Florida. I like to track the average starting wage for McDonalds (around $15 an hour in Panama City, Florida) to the price of a Big Mac meal, the rent cost for a 1 and 2 bedroom apartments, etc

I remember paying $300 a month for a 1 bedroom garage apartment in 1993 in Panama City Beach when the average starting wage was around $5 an hour for fast food and a redfish meal (with drink) at Rude Roys seafood was $7.

So Florida is more expensive then West Virginia especially in regards to housing but pays less. So who is getting rich or wealthy from that imbalance ? The residential contractors ? where is the money going ?
.
6228   MolotovCocktail   2025 Apr 20, 10:32am  

AmericanKulak says

Not quite a ghost town, depending IF Orlando diversifies it's economy, finally.


Villages is what? 55 an older? Diversifying the economy won't change that.
6229   AD   2025 Apr 20, 11:25am  

MolotovCocktail says

AmericanKulak says


Not quite a ghost town, depending IF Orlando diversifies it's economy, finally.


Villages is what? 55 an older? Diversifying the economy won't change that.


True, as the +55 year old owner likely is retired and not looking for a white colored tech job or light-manufacturing job in the outer suburbs of Tampa or Orlando (within 35 minutes drive) such as Ridge Manor (off of Interstate 75 and near Tampa area).

Unless others living in these The Villages homes like spouses (age 40 to 55) are looking to work in those types of jobs.

But it may prop up The Villages real estate as it elevates real estate just south of The Villages which is home to these workers in the white colored jobs and light manufacturing sector.

.
6230   HeadSet   2025 Apr 20, 2:38pm  

AD says

Front Royal Virginia which have become bedroom communities for those that work 30 miles away in the outer suburbs of Washington DC like Haymarket and Manassas.

Front Royal as a bedroom community for Manassas? Must be because of I-66.

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