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6369
AmericanKulak
2025 May 14, 6:58pm
AmericanKulak
2025 May 14, 6:58pm
WookieMan says
ditto. 4 of the 5 Seafood places here aren't chains but all run by the same Family. The same right down to the Sysco orange tangy dipping sauce.
they're all owned by 3-5 groups that make the same food
ditto. 4 of the 5 Seafood places here aren't chains but all run by the same Family. The same right down to the Sysco orange tangy dipping sauce.
6370
AD
2025 May 14, 7:10pm
AD
2025 May 14, 7:10pm
Median household income was $5100 and minimum wage was $1 an hour in 1958. Median home price was around $12,000.
Today it is about $80,000 and I figure the starting hourly wage is around $14. Median house price is around $420,000.
Median price increased by about 5.5% annually.
Today it is about $80,000 and I figure the starting hourly wage is around $14. Median house price is around $420,000.
Median price increased by about 5.5% annually.
6371
Patrick
2025 May 14, 7:24pm
Patrick
2025 May 14, 7:24pm
Let's see...
2025 - 1958 = 67 years
1.055 ^ 67 = 36x
At 5.5% for 67 years, $5100 becomes $183,600, so salaries did not go up 5.5% per year. Salaries went up about 80000 / 5100 = 15x, which corresponds to 4.1% increase annually.
But $12,000 x 36 = $432,000, so yes, prices went up about 5.5%.
2025 - 1958 = 67 years
1.055 ^ 67 = 36x
At 5.5% for 67 years, $5100 becomes $183,600, so salaries did not go up 5.5% per year. Salaries went up about 80000 / 5100 = 15x, which corresponds to 4.1% increase annually.
But $12,000 x 36 = $432,000, so yes, prices went up about 5.5%.
6372
AD
2025 May 14, 7:37pm
AD
2025 May 14, 7:37pm
Patrick says
Let's see...
2025 - 1958 = 67 years
1.055 ^ 67 = 36x
At 5.5% for 67 years, $5100 becomes $183,600, so salaries did not go up 5.5% per year. Salaries went up about 80000 / 5100 = 15x, which corresponds to 4.1% increase annually.
But $12,000 x 36 = $432,000, so yes, prices went up about 5.5%.
6373
AmericanKulak
2025 May 14, 8:12pm
AmericanKulak
2025 May 14, 8:12pm
I prefer the median income, not household.
It's a bad comparison between Ward Cleaver plus wife,kids, and pets on a single income to Ashley and Raylan the DINKs with two incomes, a dog, but no kids.
So over such a time, between the 50s and today, we should compare apples to apples... a ONE income family. Using today's median household income distorts that due to DINKs - No kids by the 30s was another rarity prior to the last few decades, but common now.
I'd say use $50k, not $80k. Or maybe split the difference to get closer to the decline in living standards.
It's a bad comparison between Ward Cleaver plus wife,kids, and pets on a single income to Ashley and Raylan the DINKs with two incomes, a dog, but no kids.
So over such a time, between the 50s and today, we should compare apples to apples... a ONE income family. Using today's median household income distorts that due to DINKs - No kids by the 30s was another rarity prior to the last few decades, but common now.
I'd say use $50k, not $80k. Or maybe split the difference to get closer to the decline in living standards.
6374
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 May 15, 6:27am
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 May 15, 6:27am
AmericanKulak says
I spent a lot of time looking at this in 2007 to try to figure out what should be the expected price of gold after the US went off the gold standard. The US went off the gold standard in 1971, but there was some "float" in the later 1960's due to international politics (I think involving France). So my benchmark year was 1967, before that happened. 1967 also happened to be the CPI benchmark year before the government changed it to a later date coincidently when it began applying hedonics to its calculations.
I tried to benchmark gold against all sorts of stuff like median rent, house price, barrel of crude oil, commodities like corn and eggs. I used numbers from US Government web sites (census, bureau of labor statistics, federal reserve board). All those stuff seemed to be dominated by their own exogenous factors that swamped out the effect of money printing.
I settled on the hours a median wage earner would have to work to trade his/her labor for an ounce of gold. At first I benchmarked median household income. That was a good proxy for the early years but I realized that in the early 1970's the typical household lived on one paycheck but by the end of the 1980's the typical household had one than one wage earner. We all know the reason, - women going into the workplace. The extra paycheck masked the declining purchasing power of a workers' wages, - while it worked.
In the beginning the divergence between median household income and median wage earners' income was minimal, almost a rounding error. But it grew year by year till it plateaued in 1995. I supposed that was the year when all the women who were going to join the workforce had done so. I forgot the calculations that I used to put a number on this effect, but I remembered the result was 1.1% per year. So essentially, due to our declining standard of living, all else being equal a median worker would have to work 1.1% more years each year to trade their labor for an ounce of gold.
At the time (2007), my estimate was that the "median" worker ought to trade something like 32 hours of labor for an ounce of gold. That gold price calculated to something like $780. When gold was near that price in 2007, I quit buying.
I lost all the data when my employer replaced the PC's assigned to us, and I lost the mojo to make a new spread sheet. I suppose that since 2007 the gold price CAGR has averaged between 7% to 8%, - a piss poor investment compared to stocks. But a good return for a fiat money substitute. BTW my cool and hip Silicon Valley residence has appreciated at a CAGR of about 3% during the same years.
I prefer the median income, not household.
It's a bad comparison between Ward Cleaver plus wife,kids, and pets on a single income to Ashley and Raylan the DINKs with two incomes, a dog, but no kids.
So over such a time, between the 50s and today, we should compare apples to apples... a ONE income family. Using today's median household income distorts that due to DINKs - No kids by the 30s was another rarity prior to the last few decades, but common now.
I'd say use $50k, not $80k. Or maybe split the difference to get closer to the decline in living standards.
I spent a lot of time looking at this in 2007 to try to figure out what should be the expected price of gold after the US went off the gold standard. The US went off the gold standard in 1971, but there was some "float" in the later 1960's due to international politics (I think involving France). So my benchmark year was 1967, before that happened. 1967 also happened to be the CPI benchmark year before the government changed it to a later date coincidently when it began applying hedonics to its calculations.
I tried to benchmark gold against all sorts of stuff like median rent, house price, barrel of crude oil, commodities like corn and eggs. I used numbers from US Government web sites (census, bureau of labor statistics, federal reserve board). All those stuff seemed to be dominated by their own exogenous factors that swamped out the effect of money printing.
I settled on the hours a median wage earner would have to work to trade his/her labor for an ounce of gold. At first I benchmarked median household income. That was a good proxy for the early years but I realized that in the early 1970's the typical household lived on one paycheck but by the end of the 1980's the typical household had one than one wage earner. We all know the reason, - women going into the workplace. The extra paycheck masked the declining purchasing power of a workers' wages, - while it worked.
In the beginning the divergence between median household income and median wage earners' income was minimal, almost a rounding error. But it grew year by year till it plateaued in 1995. I supposed that was the year when all the women who were going to join the workforce had done so. I forgot the calculations that I used to put a number on this effect, but I remembered the result was 1.1% per year. So essentially, due to our declining standard of living, all else being equal a median worker would have to work 1.1% more years each year to trade their labor for an ounce of gold.
At the time (2007), my estimate was that the "median" worker ought to trade something like 32 hours of labor for an ounce of gold. That gold price calculated to something like $780. When gold was near that price in 2007, I quit buying.
I lost all the data when my employer replaced the PC's assigned to us, and I lost the mojo to make a new spread sheet. I suppose that since 2007 the gold price CAGR has averaged between 7% to 8%, - a piss poor investment compared to stocks. But a good return for a fiat money substitute. BTW my cool and hip Silicon Valley residence has appreciated at a CAGR of about 3% during the same years.
6376
AD
2025 May 15, 11:22am
AD
2025 May 15, 11:22am
.
So housing started to deviate from the historical median around the start of Bill Clinton's second term. What legislation did he sign to contribute to this, or what policies and executive orders as well ?
But one thing for sure, housing has become an asset like stocks such as with AirBnB, etc.
Combine this with the banking industry promoting HELOCs and reverse mortgages.
.
So housing started to deviate from the historical median around the start of Bill Clinton's second term. What legislation did he sign to contribute to this, or what policies and executive orders as well ?
But one thing for sure, housing has become an asset like stocks such as with AirBnB, etc.
Combine this with the banking industry promoting HELOCs and reverse mortgages.
.
6378
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 15, 12:51pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 15, 12:51pm
AD says
....and that is where we are headed. The era of 3% interest rates are over...at least until the Millennials flood the capital markets with massive amounts of retirement funds starting in the mid 2030s.
MolotovCocktail says
But if you calculate by gold price, it's now ~ $1,082,900.
....and that is where we are headed. The era of 3% interest rates are over...at least until the Millennials flood the capital markets with massive amounts of retirement funds starting in the mid 2030s.
6381
Patrick
2025 May 15, 1:23pm
Patrick
2025 May 15, 1:23pm
B.A.C.A.H. says
I think that gold should not be considered an investment at all, but only to be real money which holds its value more or less, unlike fiat "money". No one should count on real returns or losses from gold. Gold just sits there, but it's very good at that. Doesn't even rust.
Real investments are those that actually produce an income stream. Businesses are a good example. Land may be another, because water and sunshine continuously fall on land, letting plants and animals grow there. So a plot of harvestable forest land is a real investment.
a piss poor investment compared to stocks
I think that gold should not be considered an investment at all, but only to be real money which holds its value more or less, unlike fiat "money". No one should count on real returns or losses from gold. Gold just sits there, but it's very good at that. Doesn't even rust.
Real investments are those that actually produce an income stream. Businesses are a good example. Land may be another, because water and sunshine continuously fall on land, letting plants and animals grow there. So a plot of harvestable forest land is a real investment.
6382
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 May 15, 1:35pm
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 May 15, 1:35pm
Patrick says
Yup. Gold is money, not an investment.
I think that gold should not be considered an investment at all, but only to be real money which holds its value more or less, unlike fiat "money". No one should count on real returns or losses from gold. Gold just sits there, but it's very good at that. Doesn't even rust.
Real investments are those that actually produce an income stream. Businesses are a good example. Land may be another, because water and sunshine continuously fall on land, letting plants and animals grow there. So a plot of harvestable forest land is a real investment.
Yup. Gold is money, not an investment.
6383
AD
2025 May 15, 3:29pm
AD
2025 May 15, 3:29pm
Apartments are not doing well. Explains why construction stopped on Hathaway Luxury Apartments in Panama City Beach after they excavated last April.
This may adversely effect townhomes and condos values since about 50% of them in Panama City Beach are owned by landlords.
"The CMBS delinquency rate for multifamily properties increased to 6.57% in April 2025, a rise of 113 basis points from March. This follows a significant increase in March, where the rate rose to 5.44%, its highest level in nearly 10 years. Over the past year, the multifamily delinquency rate has risen by 360 basis points."
This may adversely effect townhomes and condos values since about 50% of them in Panama City Beach are owned by landlords.
"The CMBS delinquency rate for multifamily properties increased to 6.57% in April 2025, a rise of 113 basis points from March. This follows a significant increase in March, where the rate rose to 5.44%, its highest level in nearly 10 years. Over the past year, the multifamily delinquency rate has risen by 360 basis points."
6384
RC2006
2025 May 15, 4:33pm
RC2006
2025 May 15, 4:33pm
I looked at the city that I moved from 5 years ago. Rents and houses are still crazy high, I haven't seen any drops. Along with those increases the cost of insurance, gas, and everything else I don't know how people are making it. The mortgage on my old house would be over 5k with 20% down. My friend that's looking in neighborhoods with good schools told me he can't find a 3br apt that's under 3.5k
6386
Misc
2025 May 15, 4:53pm
B.A.C.A.H. says
I have seen as many people pay for stuff with Bitcoin as I have seen them pay with Gold. That is Zero.
In 1980 the average price of gold was $615 per ounce. Then it hit a bad spell as a commodity. It dropped in price every year for 20 straight years. In 2000 the average price was $280 per ounce. Nobody in 2000 thought of gold as money (you couldn't spend it freely), nobody thought of it as a store of value (dropping in price for 20 straight years cures people of that notion).
Gold is a commodity and not a particularly useful one.
Generally, there are no bad investments, only bad timing.
Everything the gold salesman are saying about gold today, they said in 1980 as well.
Yup. Gold is money, not an investment.
I have seen as many people pay for stuff with Bitcoin as I have seen them pay with Gold. That is Zero.
In 1980 the average price of gold was $615 per ounce. Then it hit a bad spell as a commodity. It dropped in price every year for 20 straight years. In 2000 the average price was $280 per ounce. Nobody in 2000 thought of gold as money (you couldn't spend it freely), nobody thought of it as a store of value (dropping in price for 20 straight years cures people of that notion).
Gold is a commodity and not a particularly useful one.
Generally, there are no bad investments, only bad timing.
Everything the gold salesman are saying about gold today, they said in 1980 as well.
6387
RC2006
2025 May 15, 5:06pm
RC2006
2025 May 15, 5:06pm
B.A.C.A.H. says
Valencia
RC2006 says
I looked at the city that I moved from 5 years ago.
What city is it?
Valencia
6388
Glock-n-Load
2025 May 15, 7:19pm
AD says
Glass Steagal?
.
So housing started to deviate from the historical median around the start of Bill Clinton's second term. What legislation did he sign to contribute to this, or what policies and executive orders as well ?
But one thing for sure, housing has become an asset like stocks such as with AirBnB, etc.
Combine this with the banking industry promoting HELOCs and reverse mortgages.
.
Glass Steagal?
6389
stereotomy
2025 May 15, 7:56pm
stereotomy
2025 May 15, 7:56pm
Misc says
That period in the 'naughties was when the central banks of the world were divesting themselves of gold, most famously the Bank of England. It was the "End of History," the commies had been defeated, and the US was the hegemon. Confidence in the dollar was sky high.
Now the gold price is buoyed by massive central bank buying, providing an ever-escalating floor under the price of gold.
Yes, the price of gold makes no sense when you completely strip the macroeconomic context from its interpretation.
This is a mistake.
Gold is rising because the confidence of the US dollar is falling. Central banks around the world, who previously held US Treasuries, have now stopped buying them or are selling them and buying gold instead. Also, the $20 trillion injected into the world financial system during the scamdemic is creating massive monetary inflation, which was reflected in the price of gold back in 2021.
B.A.C.A.H. says
Yup. Gold is money, not an investment.
I have seen as many people pay for stuff with Bitcoin as I have seen them pay with Gold. That is Zero.
In 1980 the average price of gold was $615 per ounce. Then it hit a bad spell as a commodity. It dropped in price every year for 20 straight years. In 2000 the average price was $280 per ounce. Nobody in 2000 thought of gold as money (you couldn't spend it freely), nobody thought of it as a store of value (dropping in price for 20 straight years cures people of that notion).
Gold is a commodity and not a particularly useful one.
Generally, there are no bad investments, only bad timing.
Everything the gold salesman are saying about gold today, they said in 1980 as well.
That period in the 'naughties was when the central banks of the world were divesting themselves of gold, most famously the Bank of England. It was the "End of History," the commies had been defeated, and the US was the hegemon. Confidence in the dollar was sky high.
Now the gold price is buoyed by massive central bank buying, providing an ever-escalating floor under the price of gold.
Yes, the price of gold makes no sense when you completely strip the macroeconomic context from its interpretation.
This is a mistake.
Gold is rising because the confidence of the US dollar is falling. Central banks around the world, who previously held US Treasuries, have now stopped buying them or are selling them and buying gold instead. Also, the $20 trillion injected into the world financial system during the scamdemic is creating massive monetary inflation, which was reflected in the price of gold back in 2021.
6390
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 15, 9:55pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 15, 9:55pm
stereotomy says
Why is everything always about the 'confidence of the dollar' simply because that is what is used for most gold transactions?
The Chinese have been buying shitloads of bullion. Shitloads. And the only reason the dollar is 'impacted' is because nobody wants yuan for the gold except in very few cases. So the Chinks are selling treasuries to get the dollars to buy gold. Otherwise, they'd have to sell their export shit for gold directly. Like the Russians currently do.
What does that say about the yuan vs the dollar?
Ditto for Shitcoin. What is Shitcoin priced in? What is it that it is mostly sold for? Euros? Diners? Yen? Wampum or kumquats? Or yuan?
Nope. Dollars.
You all keep forgetting that peeps are also SELLING shitcoin and gold for something else. And that something else is dollars for the most part.
Gold is rising because the confidence of the US dollar is falling.
Why is everything always about the 'confidence of the dollar' simply because that is what is used for most gold transactions?
The Chinese have been buying shitloads of bullion. Shitloads. And the only reason the dollar is 'impacted' is because nobody wants yuan for the gold except in very few cases. So the Chinks are selling treasuries to get the dollars to buy gold. Otherwise, they'd have to sell their export shit for gold directly. Like the Russians currently do.
What does that say about the yuan vs the dollar?
Ditto for Shitcoin. What is Shitcoin priced in? What is it that it is mostly sold for? Euros? Diners? Yen? Wampum or kumquats? Or yuan?
Nope. Dollars.
You all keep forgetting that peeps are also SELLING shitcoin and gold for something else. And that something else is dollars for the most part.
6391
Misc
2025 May 15, 10:42pm
stereotomy says
I understand you fully now.----- "This Time It's Different"
Yes, the price of gold makes no sense when you completely strip the macroeconomic context from its interpretation.
This is a mistake.
I understand you fully now.
6392
AD
2025 May 16, 10:04am
AD
2025 May 16, 10:04am
MolotovCocktail says
Chicoms are pragmatic as much as they are devious.
So they will manage the yuan to get the most benefit for economic growth, which means maximizing the employment numbers of their working age population.
Gold and Bitcoin (not shitcoin) are just ways to hedge as far as fiat currency.
Technically, if 1 gold coin bought you a black suit, then 100 years from now it should be able to buy you a black suit.
It holds or stores value.
The same goes with a silver quarter (or 25 cents piece) buying a gallon of gasoline over the last 50 years.
.
What does that say about the yuan vs the dollar?
Ditto for Shitcoin. What is Shitcoin priced in? What is it that it is mostly sold for? Euros? Diners? Yen? Wampum or kumquats? Or yuan?
Nope. Dollars.
Chicoms are pragmatic as much as they are devious.
So they will manage the yuan to get the most benefit for economic growth, which means maximizing the employment numbers of their working age population.
Gold and Bitcoin (not shitcoin) are just ways to hedge as far as fiat currency.
Technically, if 1 gold coin bought you a black suit, then 100 years from now it should be able to buy you a black suit.
It holds or stores value.
The same goes with a silver quarter (or 25 cents piece) buying a gallon of gasoline over the last 50 years.
.
6393
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 20, 9:46am
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 20, 9:46am
AD says
None of that addresses the point I was making.
Chicoms are pragmatic as much as they are devious.
So they will manage the yuan to get the most benefit for economic growth, which means maximizing the employment numbers of their working age population.
Gold and Bitcoin (not shitcoin) are just ways to hedge as far as fiat currency.
Technically, if 1 gold coin bought you a black suit, then 100 years from now it should be able to buy you a black suit.
It holds or stores value.
The same goes with a silver quarter (or 25 cents piece) buying a gallon of gasoline over the last 50 years.
None of that addresses the point I was making.
6395
AD
2025 May 20, 11:01am
AD
2025 May 20, 11:01am
MolotovCocktail says
Yes, ultimately the dollar remains the reserve currency or currency of choice or medium of exchange. People need dollars to exchange goods and services.
I was examining a bartering system (may have been called Trade Bank) and even it uses the dollar to facilitate the exchange of services.
.
AD says
Chicoms are pragmatic as much as they are devious.
So they will manage the yuan to get the most benefit for economic growth, which means maximizing the employment numbers of their working age population.
Gold and Bitcoin (not shitcoin) are just ways to hedge as far as fiat currency.
Technically, if 1 gold coin bought you a black suit, then 100 years from now it should be able to buy you a black suit.
It holds or stores value.
The same goes with a silver quarter (or 25 cents piece) buying a gallon of gasoline over the last 50 years.
None of that addresses the point I was making.
Yes, ultimately the dollar remains the reserve currency or currency of choice or medium of exchange. People need dollars to exchange goods and services.
I was examining a bartering system (may have been called Trade Bank) and even it uses the dollar to facilitate the exchange of services.
.
6396
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 20, 6:47pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 20, 6:47pm
AD says
As I understand it, IRS code requires barter exchanges to pay tax portion in $$$.
I was examining a bartering system (may have been called Trade Bank) and even it uses the dollar to facilitate the exchange of services.
As I understand it, IRS code requires barter exchanges to pay tax portion in $$$.
6397
zzyzzx
2025 May 22, 9:34am
zzyzzx
2025 May 22, 9:34am
https://www.fastcompany.com/91337938/housing-market-zillow-first-annual-u-s-home-price-drop-since-2011
Zillow: Housing market to see first annual U.S. home price drop since 2011
Zillow: Housing market to see first annual U.S. home price drop since 2011
6398
RWSGFY
2025 May 22, 10:05am
RWSGFY
2025 May 22, 10:05am
zzyzzx says
Nooooooooo!
https://www.fastcompany.com/91337938/housing-market-zillow-first-annual-u-s-home-price-drop-since-2011
Zillow: Housing market to see first annual U.S. home price drop since 2011
Nooooooooo!
6399
Fortwaye
2025 May 22, 10:07am
RWSGFY says
government will rush to price rescue faster than superman
zzyzzx says
https://www.fastcompany.com/91337938/housing-market-zillow-first-annual-u-s-home-price-drop-since-2011
Zillow: Housing market to see first annual U.S. home price drop since 2011
Nooooooooo!
government will rush to price rescue faster than superman
6401
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 22, 10:47am
But the Housing Experts kept insisting last year that rates would drop below 6% by now!
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 22, 10:47am
But the Housing Experts kept insisting last year that rates would drop below 6% by now!
6402
Fortwaye
2025 May 22, 10:49am
“news” are usually opposite of reality. someone spent money on that article, they didn’t spend it to inform us, but to gain profit from readers.
houses dropped in last two years, all articles were about prices going up. my primary dropped in value by 120k (don’t care). ask a sadistic realtor (aka commission salesman) , and it’s every day is great to buy.
houses dropped in last two years, all articles were about prices going up. my primary dropped in value by 120k (don’t care). ask a sadistic realtor (aka commission salesman) , and it’s every day is great to buy.
6404
The_Deplorable
2025 May 22, 11:11am
We have a Housing Bubble that is roughly 30 years old - started by Alan Greenspan
in the 90s. And this housing bubble is going to collapse! No ifs or buts.
in the 90s. And this housing bubble is going to collapse! No ifs or buts.
6405
ForcedTQ
2025 May 22, 12:09pm
I don’t see how as the costs to build new or rebuild a destroyed house are not coming down….
6406
clambo
2025 May 22, 12:11pm
The bubble will collapse when everyone is fired and they are replaced by robots, illegals, and H1B visa scabs.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net
Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.
Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.