patrick.net

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So housing started to deviate from the historical median around the start of Bill Clinton's second term. What legislation did he sign to contribute to this, or what policies and executive orders as well ?

But one thing for sure, housing has become an asset like stocks such as with AirBnB, etc.

Combine this with the banking industry promoting HELOCs and reverse mortgages.

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MolotovCocktail says

But if you calculate by gold price, it's now ~ $1,082,900.

AD says

MolotovCocktail says

But if you calculate by gold price, it's now ~ $1,082,900.

....and that is where we are headed. The era of 3% interest rates are over...at least until the Millennials flood the capital markets with massive amounts of retirement funds starting in the mid 2030s.

https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1922291339191853089

B.A.C.A.H. says

a piss poor investment compared to stocks

I think that gold should not be considered an investment at all, but only to be real money which holds its value more or less, unlike fiat "money". No one should count on real returns or losses from gold. Gold just sits there, but it's very good at that. Doesn't even rust.

Real investments are those that actually produce an income stream. Businesses are a good example. Land may be another, because water and sunshine continuously fall on land, letting plants and animals grow there. So a plot of harvestable forest land is a real investment.

Patrick says

I think that gold should not be considered an investment at all, but only to be real money which holds its value more or less, unlike fiat "money". No one should count on real returns or losses from gold. Gold just sits there, but it's very good at that. Doesn't even rust.

Real investments are those that actually produce an income stream. Businesses are a good example. Land may be another, because water and sunshine continuously fall on land, letting plants and animals grow there. So a plot of harvestable forest land is a real investment.

Yup. Gold is money, not an investment.

Apartments are not doing well. Explains why construction stopped on Hathaway Luxury Apartments in Panama City Beach after they excavated last April.

This may adversely effect townhomes and condos values since about 50% of them in Panama City Beach are owned by landlords.

"The CMBS delinquency rate for multifamily properties increased to 6.57% in April 2025, a rise of 113 basis points from March. This follows a significant increase in March, where the rate rose to 5.44%, its highest level in nearly 10 years. Over the past year, the multifamily delinquency rate has risen by 360 basis points."

I looked at the city that I moved from 5 years ago. Rents and houses are still crazy high, I haven't seen any drops. Along with those increases the cost of insurance, gas, and everything else I don't know how people are making it. The mortgage on my old house would be over 5k with 20% down. My friend that's looking in neighborhoods with good schools told me he can't find a 3br apt that's under 3.5k

RC2006 says

I looked at the city that I moved from 5 years ago.

What city is it?

B.A.C.A.H. says

Yup. Gold is money, not an investment.

I have seen as many people pay for stuff with Bitcoin as I have seen them pay with Gold. That is Zero.

In 1980 the average price of gold was $615 per ounce. Then it hit a bad spell as a commodity. It dropped in price every year for 20 straight years. In 2000 the average price was $280 per ounce. Nobody in 2000 thought of gold as money (you couldn't spend it freely), nobody thought of it as a store of value (dropping in price for 20 straight years cures people of that notion).

Gold is a commodity and not a particularly useful one.

Generally, there are no bad investments, only bad timing.

Everything the gold salesman are saying about gold today, they said in 1980 as well.

B.A.C.A.H. says

RC2006 says

I looked at the city that I moved from 5 years ago.

What city is it?

Valencia

AD says

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So housing started to deviate from the historical median around the start of Bill Clinton's second term. What legislation did he sign to contribute to this, or what policies and executive orders as well ?

But one thing for sure, housing has become an asset like stocks such as with AirBnB, etc.

Combine this with the banking industry promoting HELOCs and reverse mortgages.

.

Glass Steagal?

Misc says

B.A.C.A.H. says

Yup. Gold is money, not an investment.

I have seen as many people pay for stuff with Bitcoin as I have seen them pay with Gold. That is Zero.

In 1980 the average price of gold was $615 per ounce. Then it hit a bad spell as a commodity. It dropped in price every year for 20 straight years. In 2000 the average price was $280 per ounce. Nobody in 2000 thought of gold as money (you couldn't spend it freely), nobody thought of it as a store of value (dropping in price for 20 straight years cures people of that notion).

Gold is a commodity and not a particularly useful one.

Generally, there are no bad investments, only bad timing.

Everything the gold salesman are saying about gold today, they said in 1980 as well.

That period in the 'naughties was when the central banks of the world were divesting themselves of gold, most famously the Bank of England. It was the "End of History," the commies had been defeated, and the US was the hegemon. Confidence in the dollar was sky high.

Now the gold price is buoyed by massive central bank buying, providing an ever-escalating floor under the price of gold.

Yes, the price of gold makes no sense when you completely strip the macroeconomic context from its interpretation.

This is a mistake.

Gold is rising because the confidence of the US dollar is falling. Central banks around the world, who previously held US Treasuries, have now stopped buying them or are selling them and buying gold instead. Also, the $20 trillion injected into the world financial system during the scamdemic is creating massive monetary inflation, which was reflected in the price of gold back in 2021.

stereotomy says

Gold is rising because the confidence of the US dollar is falling.

Why is everything always about the 'confidence of the dollar' simply because that is what is used for most gold transactions?

The Chinese have been buying shitloads of bullion. Shitloads. And the only reason the dollar is 'impacted' is because nobody wants yuan for the gold except in very few cases. So the Chinks are selling treasuries to get the dollars to buy gold. Otherwise, they'd have to sell their export shit for gold directly. Like the Russians currently do.

What does that say about the yuan vs the dollar?

Ditto for Shitcoin. What is Shitcoin priced in? What is it that it is mostly sold for? Euros? Diners? Yen? Wampum or kumquats? Or yuan?

Nope. Dollars.

You all keep forgetting that peeps are also SELLING shitcoin and gold for something else. And that something else is dollars for the most part.

stereotomy says

Yes, the price of gold makes no sense when you completely strip the macroeconomic context from its interpretation.

This is a mistake.

I understand you fully now. ----- "This Time It's Different"

MolotovCocktail says

What does that say about the yuan vs the dollar?

Ditto for Shitcoin. What is Shitcoin priced in? What is it that it is mostly sold for? Euros? Diners? Yen? Wampum or kumquats? Or yuan?

Nope. Dollars.

Chicoms are pragmatic as much as they are devious.

So they will manage the yuan to get the most benefit for economic growth, which means maximizing the employment numbers of their working age population.

Gold and Bitcoin (not shitcoin) are just ways to hedge as far as fiat currency.

Technically, if 1 gold coin bought you a black suit, then 100 years from now it should be able to buy you a black suit.

It holds or stores value.

The same goes with a silver quarter (or 25 cents piece) buying a gallon of gasoline over the last 50 years.

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AD says

Chicoms are pragmatic as much as they are devious.

So they will manage the yuan to get the most benefit for economic growth, which means maximizing the employment numbers of their working age population.

Gold and Bitcoin (not shitcoin) are just ways to hedge as far as fiat currency.

Technically, if 1 gold coin bought you a black suit, then 100 years from now it should be able to buy you a black suit.

It holds or stores value.

The same goes with a silver quarter (or 25 cents piece) buying a gallon of gasoline over the last 50 years.

None of that addresses the point I was making.

MolotovCocktail says

AD says

Chicoms are pragmatic as much as they are devious.

So they will manage the yuan to get the most benefit for economic growth, which means maximizing the employment numbers of their working age population.

Gold and Bitcoin (not shitcoin) are just ways to hedge as far as fiat currency.

Technically, if 1 gold coin bought you a black suit, then 100 years from now it should be able to buy you a black suit.

It holds or stores value.

The same goes with a silver quarter (or 25 cents piece) buying a gallon of gasoline over the last 50 years.

None of that addresses the point I was making.

Yes, ultimately the dollar remains the reserve currency or currency of choice or medium of exchange. People need dollars to exchange goods and services.

I was examining a bartering system (may have been called Trade Bank) and even it uses the dollar to facilitate the exchange of services.

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AD says

I was examining a bartering system (may have been called Trade Bank) and even it uses the dollar to facilitate the exchange of services.

As I understand it, IRS code requires barter exchanges to pay tax portion in $$$.

https://www.fastcompany.com/91337938/housing-market-zillow-first-annual-u-s-home-price-drop-since-2011

Zillow: Housing market to see first annual U.S. home price drop since 2011

zzyzzx says

https://www.fastcompany.com/91337938/housing-market-zillow-first-annual-u-s-home-price-drop-since-2011

Zillow: Housing market to see first annual U.S. home price drop since 2011

Nooooooooo!

RWSGFY says

zzyzzx says

https://www.fastcompany.com/91337938/housing-market-zillow-first-annual-u-s-home-price-drop-since-2011

Zillow: Housing market to see first annual U.S. home price drop since 2011

Nooooooooo!

government will rush to price rescue faster than superman

zzyzzx says

Zillow: Housing market to see first annual U.S. home price drop since 2011

Long overdue!

But the Housing Experts kept insisting last year that rates would drop below 6% by now!

“news” are usually opposite of reality. someone spent money on that article, they didn’t spend it to inform us, but to gain profit from readers.

houses dropped in last two years, all articles were about prices going up. my primary dropped in value by 120k (don’t care). ask a sadistic realtor (aka commission salesman) , and it’s every day is great to buy.

https://johncomiskey.substack.com/p/the-looming-impact-of-student-loan

We have a Housing Bubble that is roughly 30 years old - started by Alan Greenspan
in the 90s. And this housing bubble is going to collapse! No ifs or buts.

I don’t see how as the costs to build new or rebuild a destroyed house are not coming down….

The bubble will collapse when everyone is fired and they are replaced by robots, illegals, and H1B visa scabs.

The_Deplorable says

We have a Housing Bubble that is roughly 30 years old - started by Alan Greenspan
in the 90s. And this housing bubble is going to collapse! No ifs or buts.

Yes, housing affordability measured as home price to household income ratio, but I believe mortgage rates were not below 6% when Greenspan was
at the Federal Reserve. But low mortgage rates allow for the ratio to increase.

I remember when we got a VA mortgage in summer 2016 the rate was 3% and the bank said the ratio is as high as 5.

We will see how PCE fares, but annual inflation reported by the guvmint remains around 2.5% yet interest rates like 10 Year bond are stuck around 4.5%.

The Fed needs to lower the Fed Funds Rate to 3.5% from currently 4.5%. That is 1% over annual inflation and plenty of safety margin.

With CD's and Money Markets paying 4% or more, this is just making the bond buyers demand at least 4% for the 10 Year bond.

zzyzzx says

https://johncomiskey.substack.com/p/the-looming-impact-of-student-loan

Trump just trying to squeeze as much juice from the orange just like with tariffs and trade deals, as well as cuts to the federal government.

My guess is by end of this year he's going to try to show just in his first year how much he reduced the trade deficit and federal government deficit.

But knowing Trump he'll quickly make changes and adjustments like giving some reprieve with student loan debt if conditions sour that much.

To him its like posturing and arbitrage like making real estate business deals, but in the political space or environment.
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Explain mortgage rates between 1990 to 2000. Isn't it low interest rates that end up causing the problems?

AD says

But knowing Trump he'll quickly make changes and adjustments like giving some reprieve with student loan debt if conditions sour that much.

You give a student a loan, it's a business transaction is how it should be. Government should have no say in it. Tuition rates would plummet because no lender would give a private student loan. My two neighbor professors have 15-20 kids in their English classes. People aren't going to college unless it's STEM.

My sons at 18 could work for the wife's company for $90k/yr and get 4 months off out of high school AND collect UE and work side jobs like plowing. And yes, nepotism I know. I'd allow them to live at the house until 20 and then they're booted once the job sticks. By 32 they'd have desk jobs with the company or sales. My wife worked on the crew for her first two years, that's how small they were. Just saw the phone tree of 60+ employees or consultants for the company.

I think college is mostly dead. I'd actually hope Trump pulls any Federal backing of loans and removes the BK protection. We all know what professors will be the first to be fired. We'd get kids serious about skill(s) that are needed and not a pet hobby and paint your hair.

College dead? For sales monkeys - sure. How do you do fucking aerospace or civil engineering w/o college? We can't be a country ot sales monkeys while also insisting on doing important stuff in house.

WookieMan says

People aren't going to college unless it's STEM.

Read the comment.

RWSGFY says

How do you do fucking aerospace or civil engineering w/o college?

You didn't read it.

AD says

With CD's and Money Markets paying 4% or more,

Unfortunately, that is changing fast. In the low to mid 3% range now.

HeadSet says

AD says

With CD's and Money Markets paying 4% or more,

Unfortunately, that is changing fast. In the low to mid 3% range now.

Right now Schwab's money market is paying 4.12% : https://www.schwab.com/money-market-funds

USAA is only paying 2.5% , but they always underpay compared to Schwab

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GNL says

Explain mortgage rates between 1990 to 2000. Isn't it low interest rates that end up causing the problems?

Wow, but yeah I recall getting a 7% mortgage back in late 1998 when I bought a 2 bedroom 2.5 bath townhome with a finished basement (which could could as another bedroom) near Alexandria, VA for around $135,000, which was built around 1985.

Usually the 10 Year Treasury is 1.5% greater than annual inflation, and the 30 Yr mortgage rate is 1.5% greater than the 10 Year Treasury.

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