patrick.net

https://www.fastcompany.com/91341501/housing-market-homebuilder-unsold-inventory-swells-to-2009-levels

Homebuilder unsold inventory swells to 2009 levels: Housing markets to watch

AD says

whereas Illinois in general seems to have had no population growth over the least 10 years

The only people moving to Illinois are Fakefugees and Illegals. While there may be some people who get posted to Chicago by work, they're more than overmatched by the numbers of Boomers fleeing the high tax state.

Only California has a higher outflow rate.

This Congress if it gets off it's ass needs to pass a "No Bailout for State Obligations" law, or CA and IL and NJ will be champing at the bit to federalize their pension and other obligations

AmericanKulak says

This Congress if it gets off it's ass needs to pass a "No Bailout for State Obligations" law, or CA and IL and NJ will be champing at the bit to federalize their pension and other obligations

Chicago is the only problem in IL. IMRF is almost 100% funded. Thats where everyone outside of Chicago gets their retirement funds/pensions.

Chicago has fire, police, teachers and I think some other funds they've underfunded for probably 50 years plus at around 50%. IL as a whole is generally fine. The big 3 pensions in Chicago make the state look like shit because they're so underfunded. Property taxes are high, but it's actually not all that bad.

Getting rid of Mike Madigan has been a huge victory (IL State Senate). He ran the government for about 40 years. I stopped following his legal issues, but they're not small.

I don't like Prickzer, but he's currently the lesser of the previous evil in the state. Madigan was level 10 fraud and was Speaker for the state. 2nd in line as whoever was lieutenant governor would have the given him the governor position. That's the power the guy had. I don't know if it will happen in the next decade, but I could a movie being made about him and the Daley family.

MolotovCocktail says

In our casino and speculative economy, all assets seem to cycle like on a roller coaster ride. How close to bottom are we now ? The current bottom should not be worse as the 2009 bottom.

.

WookieMan says

Property taxes are high, but it's actually not all that bad.

The State of Illinois' general obligation bond ratings, as of recent updates (May 2025), are as follows:

Moody's: A3 (Positive Outlook)
S&P (Standard & Poor's): A- (Stable Outlook)
Fitch: A- (Stable Outlook)

It's worth noting that Illinois has received multiple credit rating upgrades from these agencies in recent years, reflecting improvements in its fiscal health, including budget management and efforts to pay down liabilities.

AD says

The State of Illinois' general obligation bond ratings, as of recent updates (May 2025), are as follows:

Moody's: A3 (Positive Outlook)
S&P (Standard & Poor's): A- (Stable Outlook)
Fitch: A- (Stable Outlook)

It's worth noting that Illinois has received multiple credit rating upgrades from these agencies in recent years, reflecting improvements in its fiscal health, including budget management and efforts to pay down liabilities.

That's why I've been more positive about the economy than others. We got beat up 2009-2020 in IL. Huge population loss. Individual states are going to take a beating CA being the biggie. TN, AZ, ID, CO, TX, FL all likely overbuilt with the inflow. I'd actually throw MT into the mix as well.

States like IL, IA, MI, MO, IN, OH, WI are all likely to go sideways. I don't like the Northeast Coast so I really don't care. You got 5-7 states that are looking at 10-20% losses. Most will be fine. It just brings down the median nationally which is not a good metric.

WookieMan says

It just brings down the median nationally which is not a good metric.

Like any statistic, its just a statistic that needs context. But at least it gives an overall sense of the RE market trend.

I wonder if Illinois population will stay flat for next 10 to 15 years.

I agree as Florida is near the end of the baby boomer cycle as far as those moving down from Democrat shitholes like Chicago suburbs and New F-ing Jersey.

I know that from what I've listened to at the local economic alliance meetings in Panama City Florida, and that is why they have diversified the economy to tourism (within 16 hour drive from Chicago, 5 hour from deep-pocket white suburbs of Atlanta, etc), shipbuilding, the maritime port, HVAC manufacturing, Berg Pipe, electrical switchgear and transformer manufacturing, aviation manufacturing, etc
.

HeadSet says

Unfortunately, that is changing fast. In the low to mid 3% range now.

There's some call protected brokered CD's with maturities up to 3 years with 4.3% on the fidelity website.

I am not interested because of what may to happen to the USD and the rates between now and three years from now.

There's also several 4.3% with maturities in 6-9 months, more to my liking.

AmericanKulak says

Only California has a higher outflow rate.

Whatever it is, it's not high enough. The population way exceeds the capacity of the infrastructure, housing stock, water supply, environment. I don't know what the capacity ought to be but no way it's 40 million. This is the reason for folks bellyaching about the cost of living here.

California's #1 problem is growing humid-temperate crops like lettuce in a semi-arid climate. That's really where the vast, vast majority of fresh water goes.

That and their hatred of density. I was shocked at the distance between LA and Anaheim and how fast it went to SFH and duplexes, without much of a medium density zone. The traffic was among the worst in any city.

San Diego gave me the heebie-jeebies. I got a big "Fake Front" vibe there, like everybody was in a cult but pretending to be normal on the outside.

AD says

In our casino and speculative economy, all assets seem to cycle like on a roller coaster ride. How close to bottom are we now ? The current bottom should not be worse as the 2009 bottom.

Too much cash chasing too few opportunities. The solution is a better standard of living which creates new opportunities.

AmericanKulak says

San Diego gave me the heebie-jeebies. I got a big "Fake Front" vibe there, like everybody was in a cult but pretending to be normal on the outside.

I don't get that vibe at all. It's all tourist and convention people. Then you got military. I don't think there are many life long people living in San Diego. They do pretty good with the homeless living there as well. Not as bad as LA or SF.

It's the best CA city in my opinion. I won't visit LA or SFBA ever again besides a flight layover.

Nowhere near as bad as LA. Never been to SF.

Still, there's a fakey vibe to California I just can't shake.

AmericanKulak says

Nowhere near as bad as LA. Never been to SF.

Still, there's a fakey vibe to California I just can't shake.

Don't like SNL, but there's this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCer2e0t8r8

Primo man, like living in mondo condo, man. I took the 45 to the 201 and then cruised around Fremont Street looking for a spot, man. Have you ever heard of Guru Wanamana man? He has like a retreat in Maui man, the weather is like so perfect on the Island man. Anyway man have you tried Ayahausca yet man? There was an IT executive at Burning Man who turned me on to it, man.

WookieMan says

It's the best CA city in my opinion

They also have the finest weather.

I've visited there in January, February, May, June, August, October, December. The shirtsleeves weather was the same there each time. Warm (but not hot) days, cool nights. Afternoon temperatures in a narrow band of 65-75 F. Night fell earlier in the winter months. When the shadows got long in the late winter afternoons, it got a bit cooler before dark than in the summer months.

Some folks like seasonal variation. I like it too. But I like SD's climate even more.

This comes at a price, though. Like the Bay Area and LA area, they must import their water from very far away.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Some folks like seasonal variation. I like it too. But I like SD's climate even more.

I wouldn't live in the city proper, but the outskirts. It does have amazing weather. Though I didn't realize it occasionally can get nasty. Was in town for this event https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/storm-toppled-tree-san-diego-kills-woman-passing-car-n508291

There were trees down everywhere. Wasn't expecting that as previous times it was always perfect. Wasn't "cold" but reminded me of Chicago on a late March day. It was just one day though and was amazing the rest of the week we were there.

As a golfer my other beef with CA weather is fog. Played Torrey Pines about 3 years ago and couldn't see a damn thing. Never cleared over a 5 hour round. I knew the course from tournaments on TV and Tiger Woods' video game as a kid. Knew the holes, but it sucked as I couldn't see anything. Fog just never burned off. Unfortunately I was playing with bad partners that didn't watch the ball off the tee. So I was rather annoyed. Couldn't see 260-320 yards so was hitting blind.

Fortunately it was free.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-14757605/home-buyers-withdraw-deals-record-levels-market-crashing.html

Yeah, it’s crashing in Metro areas and places that have turned to shit because of idiots in charge and their policies. See post 6446 chart above. Also of note, other areas are absolute sellers markets because they haven’t been turned to shit yet and there are more buyers in the know than sellers…..

AD says

MolotovCocktail says

In our casino and speculative economy, all assets seem to cycle like on a roller coaster ride. How close to bottom are we now ? The current bottom should not be worse as the 2009 bottom.

.

Yes. It can be. There are no Boomers/Millennials to restart things like in 2009. It's bad enough what housing activity we do have is predominantly Boomers selling to Boomers. That will stop.

MolotovCocktail says

It's bad enough what housing activity we do have is predominantly Boomers selling to Boomers.

Honest question. Where is this happening? Why would a boomer buy a boomers house? That makes no sense. They're not selling at this point. Kids stay at home and get the house free and clear when mom and dad are dead. There's no transaction. That's why inventory stays low. That's why builders generally are not building.

Appreciation stops when we build. Until then it would take 18-20% interest rates. Building is massively expensive right now. $720k in a small town is our projected budget for a 2,400 sq. ft. ranch. But even the builder grade trash is going for $450k. 5 years ago a $350k sale was the talk of the town.

Or it would take an income collapse. We're 2X income on the build. The $450k buyers might make $110-20k as a family. That's house poor at ~4-5X income. So it's either SUPER high interest rates, or massive income collapse. Then over building of course. I'm not seeing it outside of hipster areas.

WookieMan says

Honest question. Where is this happening? Why would a boomer buy a boomers house? That makes no sense.

Nonetheless that is what is happening. Probably not in rural America but in the populated areas, they are the largest buying demographic group. I keep seeing stats for it pop up for it here and there.

Here's an article about it.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/real-estate/2025/05/07/boomers-vs-millennials-housing-market/83470785007/

MolotovCocktail says

they are the largest buying demographic group.

Baby Boomer generation runs to 1964. So you currently have 62 year to 67 year olds retiring now and still moving to Sun Belt.

When those born in 1964 turn 65 then the spigot is nearly fully turned off as far as the migration of baby boomers to the Sun Belt.

.

.

AirBnB's IPO price was $139 in December 2020. Its price now is $129.

In February 2021 its all time high was $213. In December 2023 its all time low was $85.

Since October 2022 the 30 yr mortgage rate has been around 7%.

It was 5% in October 2018, 3.5% in January 2020, and 3% in September 2021.

***********************************

https://www.axios.com/2025/05/31/second-home-mortgages

Demand for second homes is at its lowest in data going back to 2018, Redfin reports.

Why it matters: Vacation homes are losing their luster.

Homeownership costs have soared, and cities are cracking down on short-term rentals.

Plus, fewer people can work remotely from their beach house or ski chalet these days.

Mortgages for second homes fell from the previous year in 30 of the 50 most populous metros, led by Miami (-32%), Orlando (-28%) and Fort Lauderdale (-28%).

AD says

So you currently have 62 year to 67 year olds retiring now and still moving to Sun Belt.

They already moved. Covid spurred that. Also some can't afford to retire and will work forever. Those that can retire already have and made their move. Teachers, fire fighters, cops, and any government worker has retired. Probably around 55-60 which is basically a decade ago.

They also bought in at low interest rates and the homes they bought to downsize won't be sold for 15-30 years, basically until they die. Or they bought with cash. Or some just stayed in their paid off house and one of the kids live with them. There are no houses for sale is the point.

Prices won't meaningfully go down until inventory is up or more building or both. Interest rates would need to get to 14-17% so I don't put that in the equation. Not happening.

WookieMan says

Also some can't afford to retire and will work forever.

So those that are 62 to 65 years old and living in Democrat shitholes like Illinois can't retire and are stuck there ?

This demographic did not earn guvmint pensions (fed, state, county/town) and did not have enough money in retirement accounts like 401K and Roth IRA.

And those in that age group who had guvmint pensions already retired at 55 to 58 years of age and already moved to the Sun Belt.

.

AD says

This demographic did not earn guvmint pensions (fed, state, county/town) and did not have enough money in retirement accounts like 401K and Roth IRA.

You're a stat guy. Look up the people that actually saved anything. It's way lower than anyone thinks. My 48 year old buddy has NOTHING saved. His checking account gets big and then small. 11 years from what is retirement age.

Most people currently at retirement age saved nothing. At least nothing much. Go to a restaurant, home depot, Kohls, Target, etc. it's all 55+ workers for the most part.

Save early save often. My friend I just mentioned just buys toys. 4 wheelers, side by side, camper, etc. If he had invested that he'd easily have $400k in retirement funds. He has $0 for retirement. Not a big sum, but that would probably be $1M in 11 years if he had invested. He's now breeding his horses paying $6k for horse semen. Not a joke. I'm just like dude, you're broke for your age. He doesn't know how to invest.

Anyone with kids should start him/her working as soon as possible to fund however meagerly a Roth IRA. After 5 years, you can withdraw contributions for whatever reason tax free. Earnings are a no-no unless they are used for medical, college, first time home purchase. Get the critters to work to fund the minimum balance necessary to establish a Roth IRA. Remember - it doesn't count for financial aid for college.

stereotomy says

Anyone with kids should start him/her working as soon as possible to fund however meagerly a Roth IRA. After 5 years, you can withdraw contributions for whatever reason tax free. Earnings are a no-no unless they are used for medical, college, first time home purchase. Get the critters to work to fund the minimum balance necessary to establish a Roth IRA. Remember - it doesn't count for financial aid for college.

True, I was looking at Substantially Equal Periodic Payment, which the IRS allows you to withdraw at least 5% per year without penalty.

.

WookieMan says

You're a stat guy. Look up the people that actually saved anything. It's way lower than anyone thinks. My 48 year old buddy has NOTHING saved. His checking account gets big and then small. 11 years from what is retirement age.

Most people currently at retirement age saved nothing. At least nothing much. Go to a restaurant, home depot, Kohls, Target, etc. it's all 55+ workers for the most part.

Save early save often. My friend I just mentioned just buys toys. 4 wheelers, side by side, camper, etc. If he had invested that he'd easily have $400k in retirement funds. He has $0 for retirement. Not a big sum, but that would probably be $1M in 11 years if he had invested. He's now breeding his horses paying $6k for horse semen. Not a joke. I'm just like dude, you're broke for your age. He doesn't know how to invest.

Yup. I know a few of those who own a Time Share. One such person in his mid 50's owns THREE of them.

AD says

When those born in 1964 turn 65 then the spigot is nearly fully turned off as far as the migration of baby boomers to the Sun Belt.

Yep, Florida migration down 80%, and big drops are being seen across the Sunbelt.

Wow, did flippers dump. I just saw 3 of 5 listings that are rehabs of older houses abandoned right in the middle. Hampton Bays or whatever the Home Depot brand unfinished kitchen stuff in, half-vinyl planked floors abandoned halfway in, another room with new contractor special tile next to another with rose carpet, one bathroom new generic grey the other one pink toilet and sink, some new fans the other fans from the year Peter Frampton Came Alive, etc.

Also saw TWO (2) Space Race 60s-built Homes being dumped for less than 200k by millennial inheritors! They want out!

Rents easily down 30% since COVID. Apartment complexes offering a 1-2 free months and discounts for major local employers; and obvious ex-AirBNBs (Welcome Guests to 123 Fart Street in script font near door, etc.) trying to outbid each other for rock bottom rents.

Hey hey mama prices goin' down
they're goin' down
*Guitar slide*
https://youtu.be/Ka_ALgG9hqY?si=Cu0cdOol7CHzWWkC&t=53

AmericanKulak says

Also saw TWO (2) Space Race 60s-built Homes being dumped for less than 200k by millennial inheritors! They want out!

None of my 35-42ish peers want to live in FL. The ones that did move left within 2 years after getting there. Same with TX. AZ, CO and MT are sticking with Illinoisans. WI, TN and IN are close as well, though not as popular, more for a property tax move, though WI is starting to get up there on property taxes.

Example of half refurbished Apollo House
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1042-Alamanda-Ln-Cocoa-FL-32922/43412352_zpid/

WookieMan says

None of my 35-42ish peers want to live in FL. The ones that did move left within 2 years after getting there. Same with TX. AZ, CO and MT are sticking with Illinoisans. WI, TN and IN are close as well, though not as popular, more for a property tax move, though WI is starting to get up there on property taxes.

Correct. That's why inheritors are going to sell, sell, sell. Esp. since the wages and industry breadth in Florida is pitiful compared to just about any state - even neighboring Alabama and Georgia have far better pay. Hell, WV and AR have better health care pay while far cheaper cost of living.

FL property tax and insurance has skyrocketed, too, some of the biggest increases in the nation and now comparable to the rest of the Coastal states.

That's why DeSantis and the FL legislature is worried about property tax. Old people are on a very fixed income, Jerry.

zzyzzx says

Oh very yes, what do those hot markets have in common, like spicy curry?

AmericanKulak says

Example of half refurbished Apollo House
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1042-Alamanda-Ln-Cocoa-FL-32922/43412352_zpid/

5 bedrooms in a 1,400 square foot house. Haha. This is an example of goosing the numbers/stats.

We've built about a million units a year for 30 years. What we haven't built is modest starter homes, mostly multifamily on one hand and Zero Lot McMansions on the other.

Many Millies don't own a home at all yet, Boomers if anything will downsize, or be forced to downsize as they age.