patrick.net

stereotomy says

Gold is rising because the confidence of the US dollar is falling.

Why is everything always about the 'confidence of the dollar' simply because that is what is used for most gold transactions?

The Chinese have been buying shitloads of bullion. Shitloads. And the only reason the dollar is 'impacted' is because nobody wants yuan for the gold except in very few cases. So the Chinks are selling treasuries to get the dollars to buy gold. Otherwise, they'd have to sell their export shit for gold directly. Like the Russians currently do.

What does that say about the yuan vs the dollar?

Ditto for Shitcoin. What is Shitcoin priced in? What is it that it is mostly sold for? Euros? Diners? Yen? Wampum or kumquats? Or yuan?

Nope. Dollars.

You all keep forgetting that peeps are also SELLING shitcoin and gold for something else. And that something else is dollars for the most part.

stereotomy says

Yes, the price of gold makes no sense when you completely strip the macroeconomic context from its interpretation.

This is a mistake.

I understand you fully now. ----- "This Time It's Different"

MolotovCocktail says

What does that say about the yuan vs the dollar?

Ditto for Shitcoin. What is Shitcoin priced in? What is it that it is mostly sold for? Euros? Diners? Yen? Wampum or kumquats? Or yuan?

Nope. Dollars.

Chicoms are pragmatic as much as they are devious.

So they will manage the yuan to get the most benefit for economic growth, which means maximizing the employment numbers of their working age population.

Gold and Bitcoin (not shitcoin) are just ways to hedge as far as fiat currency.

Technically, if 1 gold coin bought you a black suit, then 100 years from now it should be able to buy you a black suit.

It holds or stores value.

The same goes with a silver quarter (or 25 cents piece) buying a gallon of gasoline over the last 50 years.

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AD says

Chicoms are pragmatic as much as they are devious.

So they will manage the yuan to get the most benefit for economic growth, which means maximizing the employment numbers of their working age population.

Gold and Bitcoin (not shitcoin) are just ways to hedge as far as fiat currency.

Technically, if 1 gold coin bought you a black suit, then 100 years from now it should be able to buy you a black suit.

It holds or stores value.

The same goes with a silver quarter (or 25 cents piece) buying a gallon of gasoline over the last 50 years.

None of that addresses the point I was making.

MolotovCocktail says

AD says

Chicoms are pragmatic as much as they are devious.

So they will manage the yuan to get the most benefit for economic growth, which means maximizing the employment numbers of their working age population.

Gold and Bitcoin (not shitcoin) are just ways to hedge as far as fiat currency.

Technically, if 1 gold coin bought you a black suit, then 100 years from now it should be able to buy you a black suit.

It holds or stores value.

The same goes with a silver quarter (or 25 cents piece) buying a gallon of gasoline over the last 50 years.

None of that addresses the point I was making.

Yes, ultimately the dollar remains the reserve currency or currency of choice or medium of exchange. People need dollars to exchange goods and services.

I was examining a bartering system (may have been called Trade Bank) and even it uses the dollar to facilitate the exchange of services.

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AD says

I was examining a bartering system (may have been called Trade Bank) and even it uses the dollar to facilitate the exchange of services.

As I understand it, IRS code requires barter exchanges to pay tax portion in $$$.

https://www.fastcompany.com/91337938/housing-market-zillow-first-annual-u-s-home-price-drop-since-2011

Zillow: Housing market to see first annual U.S. home price drop since 2011

zzyzzx says

https://www.fastcompany.com/91337938/housing-market-zillow-first-annual-u-s-home-price-drop-since-2011

Zillow: Housing market to see first annual U.S. home price drop since 2011

Nooooooooo!

RWSGFY says

zzyzzx says

https://www.fastcompany.com/91337938/housing-market-zillow-first-annual-u-s-home-price-drop-since-2011

Zillow: Housing market to see first annual U.S. home price drop since 2011

Nooooooooo!

government will rush to price rescue faster than superman

zzyzzx says

Zillow: Housing market to see first annual U.S. home price drop since 2011

Long overdue!

But the Housing Experts kept insisting last year that rates would drop below 6% by now!

“news” are usually opposite of reality. someone spent money on that article, they didn’t spend it to inform us, but to gain profit from readers.

houses dropped in last two years, all articles were about prices going up. my primary dropped in value by 120k (don’t care). ask a sadistic realtor (aka commission salesman) , and it’s every day is great to buy.

https://johncomiskey.substack.com/p/the-looming-impact-of-student-loan

We have a Housing Bubble that is roughly 30 years old - started by Alan Greenspan
in the 90s. And this housing bubble is going to collapse! No ifs or buts.

I don’t see how as the costs to build new or rebuild a destroyed house are not coming down….

The bubble will collapse when everyone is fired and they are replaced by robots, illegals, and H1B visa scabs.

The_Deplorable says

We have a Housing Bubble that is roughly 30 years old - started by Alan Greenspan
in the 90s. And this housing bubble is going to collapse! No ifs or buts.

Yes, housing affordability measured as home price to household income ratio, but I believe mortgage rates were not below 6% when Greenspan was
at the Federal Reserve. But low mortgage rates allow for the ratio to increase.

I remember when we got a VA mortgage in summer 2016 the rate was 3% and the bank said the ratio is as high as 5.

We will see how PCE fares, but annual inflation reported by the guvmint remains around 2.5% yet interest rates like 10 Year bond are stuck around 4.5%.

The Fed needs to lower the Fed Funds Rate to 3.5% from currently 4.5%. That is 1% over annual inflation and plenty of safety margin.

With CD's and Money Markets paying 4% or more, this is just making the bond buyers demand at least 4% for the 10 Year bond.

zzyzzx says

https://johncomiskey.substack.com/p/the-looming-impact-of-student-loan

Trump just trying to squeeze as much juice from the orange just like with tariffs and trade deals, as well as cuts to the federal government.

My guess is by end of this year he's going to try to show just in his first year how much he reduced the trade deficit and federal government deficit.

But knowing Trump he'll quickly make changes and adjustments like giving some reprieve with student loan debt if conditions sour that much.

To him its like posturing and arbitrage like making real estate business deals, but in the political space or environment.
.

Explain mortgage rates between 1990 to 2000. Isn't it low interest rates that end up causing the problems?

AD says

But knowing Trump he'll quickly make changes and adjustments like giving some reprieve with student loan debt if conditions sour that much.

You give a student a loan, it's a business transaction is how it should be. Government should have no say in it. Tuition rates would plummet because no lender would give a private student loan. My two neighbor professors have 15-20 kids in their English classes. People aren't going to college unless it's STEM.

My sons at 18 could work for the wife's company for $90k/yr and get 4 months off out of high school AND collect UE and work side jobs like plowing. And yes, nepotism I know. I'd allow them to live at the house until 20 and then they're booted once the job sticks. By 32 they'd have desk jobs with the company or sales. My wife worked on the crew for her first two years, that's how small they were. Just saw the phone tree of 60+ employees or consultants for the company.

I think college is mostly dead. I'd actually hope Trump pulls any Federal backing of loans and removes the BK protection. We all know what professors will be the first to be fired. We'd get kids serious about skill(s) that are needed and not a pet hobby and paint your hair.

College dead? For sales monkeys - sure. How do you do fucking aerospace or civil engineering w/o college? We can't be a country ot sales monkeys while also insisting on doing important stuff in house.

WookieMan says

People aren't going to college unless it's STEM.

Read the comment.

RWSGFY says

How do you do fucking aerospace or civil engineering w/o college?

You didn't read it.

AD says

With CD's and Money Markets paying 4% or more,

Unfortunately, that is changing fast. In the low to mid 3% range now.

HeadSet says

AD says

With CD's and Money Markets paying 4% or more,

Unfortunately, that is changing fast. In the low to mid 3% range now.

Right now Schwab's money market is paying 4.12% : https://www.schwab.com/money-market-funds

USAA is only paying 2.5% , but they always underpay compared to Schwab

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GNL says

Explain mortgage rates between 1990 to 2000. Isn't it low interest rates that end up causing the problems?

Wow, but yeah I recall getting a 7% mortgage back in late 1998 when I bought a 2 bedroom 2.5 bath townhome with a finished basement (which could could as another bedroom) near Alexandria, VA for around $135,000, which was built around 1985.

Usually the 10 Year Treasury is 1.5% greater than annual inflation, and the 30 Yr mortgage rate is 1.5% greater than the 10 Year Treasury.

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WookieMan says

WookieMan says

People aren't going to college unless it's STEM.

Read the comment.

RWSGFY says

How do you do fucking aerospace or civil engineering w/o college?

You didn't read it.

Which reduces the bold statement to banal "sales monkeys don't need college". Well, duh! Never did.

HeadSet says

AD says

With CD's and Money Markets paying 4% or more,

Unfortunately, that is changing fast. In the low to mid 3% range now.

i’m at 4.5 but likely to move it once it dips below 4. i hate how government completely dictates money moves with their policy of inflation and preferential taxation.

Fortwaye says

HeadSet says

AD says

With CD's and Money Markets paying 4% or more,

Unfortunately, that is changing fast. In the low to mid 3% range now.

i’m at 4.5 but likely to move it once it dips below 4. i hate how government completely dictates money moves with their policy of inflation and preferential taxation.

I've always looked at the tax code as a function of social engineering.

Fortwaye says

HeadSet says

AD says

With CD's and Money Markets paying 4% or more,

Unfortunately, that is changing fast. In the low to mid 3% range now.

i’m at 4.5 but likely to move it once it dips below 4. i hate how government completely dictates money moves with their policy of inflation and preferential taxation.

which bank currently offers a rate of 4.5%, boy ?

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GNL says

Fortwaye says

HeadSet says

AD says

With CD's and Money Markets paying 4% or more,

Unfortunately, that is changing fast. In the low to mid 3% range now.

i’m at 4.5 but likely to move it once it dips below 4. i hate how government completely dictates money moves with their policy of inflation and preferential taxation.

I've always looked at the tax code as a function of social engineering.

40% of Californians and 50% of New York City residents are on Medicaid. And no, this is not anecdotal.

My guess is when the baby boomer population significantly has died off (a lot are on Medicaid at nursing homes), that we'll see a relative drop in Medicaid spending unless we return to Birdbrain Biden's open border policy with its +11 million "border encounters".

Arizona was not only home to voter fraud in 2020, but also Medicaid fraud.

https://www.kjzz.org/politics/2025-05-20/22-more-people-indicted-in-massive-arizona-medicaid-fraud-scheme-involving-sober-living-homes

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GNL says

Fortwaye says

HeadSet says

AD says

With CD's and Money Markets paying 4% or more,

Unfortunately, that is changing fast. In the low to mid 3% range now.

i’m at 4.5 but likely to move it once it dips below 4. i hate how government completely dictates money moves with their policy of inflation and preferential taxation.

I've always looked at the tax code as a function of social engineering.

it is. LTCG taxed at 15%, it’s why all money goes there. labor is taxed at much higher rate.

it’s just a crooked system to benefit the wealthy. can’t beat them, invest with them.

AD says

Right now Schwab's money market is paying 4.12%

Thanks, good to know. I see that that is an insured rate (up to to $250K) as well.

Another month's Case/Shiller index came out...I know...I know...another record high.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA

Fortwaye says

LTCG taxed at 15%,

The federal long-term capital gains tax rates for 2025 are 0%, 15%, or 20%, depending on your taxable income and filing status.

I was a renter forever. I kept hearing about the imminent crash and it never happened (since 2008). I finally bought 3 years ago at what was seemingly the peak because interest rates were on the rise, but the crash (at least in my area) never happened. Prices have slowly and steadily risen, whilst interest rates are now much higher. If I had chose to rent the last three years, I'd be paying more per month than owning and having to live under the foot of a landlord and without being able to update the house the way I want.

When we moved from CA to TN, I pushed to rent whilst my wife pushed to buy. She was adamant but I thought for sure it was a financial death sentence. I caved when we found a house because she didn't want to leave CA, and I did, so it was the great compromise. Boy, she was 1000% right.

i thought there would be a crash, never happened. although houses did drop about 20% here from peak. either way, in a long run inflation is guaranteed.

just its bigger in blue states, in red houses don’t go anywhere for a long time. we have lots of construction and land is cheaper. funny to watch coastal people buy here and expect appreciation when they don’t get any. i see old houses on market for long time at same price as new construction… they don’t sell.

porkchopXpress says

When we moved from CA to TN

where in TN did you all move ?

as far as your previous post 6426, this relates to what Wookie has been saying as far as sales volume compared to the population, and also how much of a lobby is the local real estate organization

here in Panama City Beach, the Central Panhandle Association of Realtors along with St Joe (ticker: JOE) seem to be in complete control and want to bring in "white professional and hipsters" , so they envision doubling the population (around 200K now) within about the next 25 years

the realtors need growth to drive sales volume, and here that means growth that puts constant strain on infrastructure

whereas Illinois in general seems to have had no population growth over the least 10 years

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AD says

whereas Illinois in general seems to have had no population growth over the least 10 years

No growth, but to the north, west and south of Chicago they're building again. Cookie cutter cardboard box homes, but they're building.

I think overall TN will be fine. Sideways with a slight drop from highs.

I set and forget the few stocks I hold. Up 500% on FNMA. Got in around 2016 under $2/share. It's been going ape shit since the Trump announcement of making them private again. The government has been taking all the proceeds and keeping enough to let it run. If it goes private it will be a rocket ship. Hit $11 today. Hate predictions, but with inflation and going private I could see higher than $60/share.

May have taken a decade and I don't like gambling, but might have been the best bet of my life sitting on my ass doing nothing. Could be looking at $200k. Didn't see this coming. The market has some trust in lending and real estate. These current loans are cash cows for Fannie and Freddie. They're qualified people. 3 years of payments amortized at 7% interest rate they're in the clear. It would take a 40% crash to lose money.