patrick.net

The annual mortality rate after age 65 is approximately 2%. After 75 it's 5%.

If we go by the median Boomer being about 70 years old in 2025, we will lose about 10% of all Boomers by 2030 and 30% by 2035.

That's not including house sales due to ADL downsizing or health cost coverage or transfer/moving in to relatives due to illness, just death.

I'm guessing about a quarter million excess homes going on market each year until 2030, when it will increase to about half a million.

Don't buy residential real estate now, esp. in the Sunbelt.

I dunno..historically the US has had about 5.5 million existing homes sell per year. For this year and last it has come in at about 4.5 million, so there's some room for extra sales. With the number of deaths to increase by about 3 million per year (the Boomer effect), that accounts for the missing 1 million units right there. That's also assuming that new builds equals those that are destroyed/abandoned/become uninhabitable.

Over the last 15 years or so, the occupancy rate per dwelling has been going up quite a bit. The mass media has been Doom saying generation Z's financial picture, and while a lot of it is true, that generation has the highest amount of financial assets for their age of any preceding generation. Their wages aren't bad,, the States are kicking in an average of $10k for new home buyers, and for about 1/2 of them their parents are kicking in some down payment assistance too.
Given the supply/demand dynamics..if interest rate spreads just go back to where they have historically been, I don't see any huge price decreases on a National basis.

Overall. I'd say it's too soon to tell.

I think GenZ is going to get the deal of a century if they wait to about 30-35 to buy their first home.

Millies that aren't on the shitjob wheel already brought a house, will mostly rent or sell the one they inherit (which will glut both the rental and buying market further). Why would they move from their high income NY, CA, IL, MN job to take a bigass pay cut in most of the Sunbelt? The Sunbelt is no longer the bargain it used to be, so it's not mitigated by the lower cost-of-living anymore much except for places like Arkansas.

GenX owns property already.

Who will buy?

In 2035 there will be roughly 3 adults for every person over 65. Again, Boomers own over half the residential real estate in the USA.

Rates won't change a thing. We had low rates for the 2010s and prices didn't rise much, almost all the explosion in house costs was due to COVID and COVIDflation. We had high rates in the 80s and people brought homes like crazy. The fundamental issue is the used house price being too high for incomes.

The reason for the delay in market price discovery is that too many are banking on getting their COVID peak house price. Homeloaners are "Sticky Upwards" in their perception of home value.

It's not the ~$300/month difference on $300k on 6.2% vs. 4.5%. It's that you can rent the same thing for the same or cheaper and not be responsible for roofs, HVAC, gutters, etc. And the higher the fundamental price, the higher the insurance and property tax which are tied to the price, not tied to the rate. For houses brought pre-COVID, buyers at the current price are going to get shlonged for more than $300 in the difference in homeowners and taxes between the seller's carrying cost and the purchase price.

If an area is supply constrained, the actual cost of building a new house (less builder profit) will be the benchmark for $/sqft for existing houses. Some adjustments down to be made for quality of construction/energy efficiency/amenities, but that’s going to be the basis. If you can’t build it for $150/SF, and it’s $180/SF, what rate the mortgage market is currently at isn’t going to mean shit WRT ultimate cost/sale price.

ForcedTQ says

If an area is supply constrained, the actual cost of building a new house (less builder profit) will be the benchmark for $/sqft for existing houses.

Correct. In an area where the growing population is mid to low income, those building costs mean the new neighborhoods will be cluster homes.

https://fortune.com/2025/09/24/housing-costs-so-high-gen-z-millennials-sacrifices-delayed-milestones/

Housing costs are so high some Americans are delaying milestones like getting married, having kids and even adopting a pet

I wonder what this chart looks like in $/SF…

zzyzzx says

One of the lowest quality builders in the nation. The peak is people building and then finding out they got a lemon. They're shit houses. I could see the gossip getting out and no one wanting to buy them in higher markets.

Around my parts they are being sold though at a fast pace. But that's likely what is dragging down selling price. They getting into lower COLA's so the land is cheaper and can still turn a profit on people with $100k family income with $350-425k prices. They doing pre-fab framing so they only need to send a few carpenters to put up a two story house in days. Basically the labor costs are pretty low and the contractors will take any work they can get.

Builder homes are now 4% cheaper than Used Houses nationally. This has never been seen before, not even during the GFC.

Investors are also getting smart.

Homeloaners, not so much.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Builder homes are now 4% cheaper than Used Houses nationally. This has never been seen before, not even during the GFC.

No one is moving with locked in low interest rates on the used homes, so builders have to compete price wise and with rate buy downs, which is a write off for them. Land is still relatively cheap though in most places. Low margins, but if you can bring in $10-20k/house after ALL expenses including all employees, you do it.

My little town Lennar will make $1M at least after CEO pay, employees and contractors. Multiply that by just 50 in the state of IL. Just here they'll make $50-100M over the next two years on low margins.

If Trump gets rates to drop then the builders can remove the interest rate buy downs. I actually like where rates are personally. I think we need a generally sideways track for a while. Some will lose and some will win. But nationally this is not 2007-08.

WookieMan says

No one is moving with locked in low interest rates on the used homes, so builders have to compete price wise and with rate buy downs, which is a write off for them. Land is still relatively cheap though in most places. Low margins, but if you can bring in $10-20k/house after ALL expenses including all employees, you do it.

Homeloaners can't offer ~5% teaser rates, generally don't offer choice of all-new installed flooring and paint, generally don't include all-new appliances, nor offer a whole-house warranty.

What homeloaners can do is cut their asking price very strongly and stop fighting price discovery.

I think the Boomers still have a HUGE impact on prices. We'll have to wait until they're exhausted. I don't know.

Ed Dowd says we're headed for a housing letdown. I don't think I've heard him use the word crash...yet.

I remember when the Japanese Bubble hit Peak Retard when a square meter of the Imperial Grounds was valued more than the entirety of NYC. That was sometime in the 90s.

Extreme example? Only could happen in Japan and in that particular era? Perhaps.

But this below. It's pretty close to it, America-style. And the Housing Experts of PatNet will try to spin it like they always have. Just watch...



Looky! A Hipster Coastal City...NOT!

MolotovCocktail says

I remember when the Japanese Bubble hit Peak Retard when a square meter of the Imperial Grounds was valued more than the entirety of NYC. That was sometime in the 90s.

Extreme example? Only could happen in Japan and in that particular era? Perhaps.

But this below. It's pretty close to it, America-style. And the Housing Experts of PatNet will try to spin it like they always have. Just watch...



Looky! A Hipster Coastal City...NOT!

I guess each of the two bedrooms are about 150 square feet each, and the kitchen/dining area/living room are 300 square feet.

MolotovCocktail says

Looky! A Hipster Coastal City...NOT!

It's a 5 hour drive to East Beach Galveston. There's also Lavon lake a very short drive. Commute to Dallas or its nearby suburbs.

Those tiny houses are fine as at most you'd have a girl friend or buddy living there and you don't have to share a wall with a neighbor like a townhome. And you can also own your own home. These tiny homes are about as hipster as you can get. As mentioned 5 hours to the beach. This would check both the boxes I've made clear in other posts. It's a place for 22-32 year old people.

Princeton is a city in Collin County, Texas, United States. The population was 17,027 at the 2020 census, and was estimated to be 37,019 in 2024. Princeton, Texas, as of 2025, is currently the fastest-growing city in the United States. Wikipedia

20,000 people in 4 years..... totally not hipster.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/19/condo-prices-dropped-by-12-27-in-these-25-bigger-cities-through-august-condo-bust-update/

Condo prices in Killeen, TX, a little over an hour north of Austin, have collapsed by 40% since the peak in mid-2022 and have given up the entire 52% spike from mid-2020 to mid-2022, plus some. The spike had been driven by FOMO-madness and the Fed’s Free Money policies. This is one of the fastest-growing cities around; its population has surged by 35% in the past 15 years to 160,000 in 2024.

https://rudy.substack.com/p/sauve-qui-peut

Real estate here in Idaho ballooned too much, I’m thinking of moving again to a cheaper state.

Wanted to buy some land to open up shop… commercial lots go for 900k here, screw that i don’t even get who would pay that. Used to be 100k, missed my boat I guess. I dont see how it’s even possible to make money with costs so high.

Fortwaye says

’m thinking of moving again to a cheaper state.

What mythical cheaper state? it's expensive everywhere now. Or are you really considering relocating to West Virginia, or something?

zzyzzx says

Fortwaye says

’m thinking of moving again to a cheaper state.

What mythical cheaper state? it's expensive everywhere now. Or are you really considering relocating to West Virginia, or something?

Look on Zillow. Move to home with "cheap price" like near Toledo but check out the very high property tax and state income tax. Oklahoma and northern Arkansas is reasonable also for cost of living.

What I don't understand about this Doral, Florida (Miami-Dade county) article (see link below) is why are the immigrants leaving hastily if they are established ? Would they not have at least green card applications that are being processed ?

https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/miami-suburbs-once-vibrant-housing-scene-is-hit-by-exodus-of-migrants-0a2064bf

.

zzyzzx says

Fortwaye says

’m thinking of moving again to a cheaper state.

What mythical cheaper state? it's expensive everywhere now. Or are you really considering relocating to West Virginia, or something?

Carolinas

Fortwaye says

Carolinas

I live in South Carolina. There are quite a few areas near Greenville where home prices are not that bad. Easley, for example.

$450,000, 4bd, 3 ba, 2,310 sq ft
406 Huntington Rd, Easley, SC 29642

https://www.redfin.com/SC/Easley/406-Huntington-Rd-29642/home/60756758

zzyzzx says

What mythical cheaper state? it's expensive everywhere now. Or are you really considering relocating to West Virginia, or something?

Lots of cheap rural homes also in Wookie's state of Illinois as well as in Wisconsin

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/220-2nd-St-Bell-Center-WI-54631/113648066_zpid/

Tennessee (which is/was the new North Carolina) is now having rent and house price declines.

Lots of fun videos about those who brought during the Pandemic flipping out over skyrocketing carrying costs, including those who got 3-4% rates.

Because the difference in rates was more than eaten up by skyrocketing insurance and property taxes and often unforeseen repairs. Used houses, unlike builder homes, don't come with warranties.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnCmvpD1gE8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lukq5xmb-xI

Mortgage payments up 90% in the past 5 years but the vast majority of that was the price, not the rate.

The price is too damn high and so are the carrying costs.

Here is another:

$292,500
3bd, 2 ba, 1,538 sq ft
536 Laurel Meadows Pkwy, Greenville, SC 29607

https://www.redfin.com/SC/Greenville/536-Laurel-Meadows-Pkwy-29607/home/91503844

The housing market in Tracy Hills, Tracy, CA, is experiencing a significant downturn, with median listing prices dropping year-over-year and homes selling slower than in the past.
Earlier this year someone bought after the builder (Lennar!) gave 22% discount.
But the area experiencing further decline, so far he lost 18% from his purchase price.
Not sure what factors are causing steep fall now. But I can think of a few. The price went up too fast during scamdamic. Highway 580 is super congested particularly during morning hours. Occasionally hear that it takes 2 to 3 hours to south San Jose one way after 5 days back to office schedule for many businesses.
I suspect that immigrants are not buying any houses particularly who are on immigrant visas and permanent residents. These are the major clients in this area.

If anyone is in the market who wants to settle down around this area can keep an eye for a good deals.

https://www.redfin.com/neighborhood/556624/CA/Tracy/Tracy-Hills/housing-market

Quite a few price reductions in Santa Cruz, usually considered an airtight market. Still expensive for Appalachia by the Sea.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Here is another:

$292,500
3bd, 2 ba, 1,538 sq ft
536 Laurel Meadows Pkwy, Greenville, SC 29607

https://www.redfin.com/SC/Greenville/536-Laurel-Meadows-Pkwy-29607/home/91503844

23 year old used house, I estimate at $200k +/- 10% depending on new roof and HVAC

It sold for $149k in 2015 when it was only 13 years old. My bid of $200k is a fair and solid 20-30% appreciation in just a decade: It's about the age for major repairs on the horizon.

I notice Redfin is listing the current property tax on a $153k assessment, rather than on the $292k asking, so that will double. Probably ditto with the homeowner's insurance, which won't be insuring the 2015 price, but the 2025 ask price if it transacts at the ask. Not sure how many young couples without a Bank of Relatives have a $60k downpayment (plus closing costs) to avoid mortgage insurance, get the best rate, etc.

https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1973064429706031342

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Not sure how many young couples without a Bank of Relatives have a $60k downpayment (plus closing costs) to avoid mortgage insurance, get the best rate, etc.

Yup. But hey! Ppl here actually believe the bullshit economic data claiming that incomes rose 20% these past few years. Mean income, sure. Median...my bullshit scent receptors go crazy.

Case/Shiller came out yesterday. It was down from the prior month, but such a small decline it barely registered. From peak it is down about 1%. I caution anyone reading this as any sort of trend. Lower interest rates over the upcoming months could tip prices up a little.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA

The recent and previous Interest rate cut resulted in mortgage rates staying flat, in fact ticking up slightly.

It's possible there will be a brief uptick. But the cost of housing is too damn high.

Again, in the 80s, the average first homebuyer was 29 years old in a double digit rate environment.
Today he's in late 30s, in a normal to low rate environment.
https://money.com/first-time-homebuyer-age-record-high/

It not only happened before, it happened just 15 years ago. The fundamental cause was the same: Wimpy lending standards allowing home prices to skyrocket; just like no student loan caps allow tutions to skyrocket. NINJA was replaced with little down under Biden COVID rules.

It's not the rate. It's the price and the carrying costs.

Misc says

Lower interest rates over the upcoming months could tip prices up a little.

Every time the Fed cuts interest rates so far in an inflationary environment, mortgage rates have gone up. The markets see through the bullshit and thus respond.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

It's not the rate. It's the price and the carrying costs.

Yup.

MolotovCocktail says

https://x.com/VladTheInflator/status/1973135828873613807

Still the VA and FHA rates are 6%, which mean buy down 4 discount points to get to 5% rate. I forecast the VA rate will be 5.5% by next March.

Slight uptick in sales if rates decline a bit, but the fundamental problem is that the price and carrying costs are too damn high, not the normative rates.

We're at a peak. There's only one way to go in the next few quarters as inventory piles on and buyers stay away in droves.


More and more data to support the onslaught of anecdotes from recent past low-rate homebuyers that they are selling out of their 3-5% era loans due to sky high carrying costs, preferring to get out while they can and avoid the enormous 20-30% leaps in insurance and property taxes and maintenance costs.

They are walking away from "Free Money" after inflation because the latter hit the carrying costs hard and made maintaining ownership unattractive or untenable in the long term.





https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/29/the-lock-in-effect-and-mortgage-rates-update-on-unwinding-a-phenomenon-that-wrecked-the-housing-market/

The only way out of this trap is to lower the price of homes, which lowers the underlying price assessment for insurance and property taxes.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Slight uptick in sales if rates decline a bit, but the fundamental problem is that the price and carrying costs are too damn high, not the normative rates.

Our HOA paid $330,000 for HOA master insurance (covers townhome building structure for wind, fire, etc) this year for Citizen Insurance, now its paying around $250,000 to Princeton Insurance in 2026. $330,000 is what we've been paying since January 2022.

My HO3 insurance went down from $2300 to $1600 by switching from Olympus to Ovation Insurance. $1600 is what I was paying back in 2021.

Property tax rates are again the same this year for Panama City Beach, and HOA is discussing lowering the HOA assessment for 2026.

I've seen same for other HOAs in Panama City Beach as far as insurance and HOA fees.

.