patrick.net

Patrick says

I know Adam Taggart from the days when this site was all about the housing bubble.

I'd like prices to fall by 50%, and that would be very good for young families, but I find it hard to believe simply because of the concentrated political power that is determined to keep housing too expensive.
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Melody Wright interview: https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2226841

stereotomy says

AD says

While both stocks and housing can be affected by macro factors, home prices are typically not highly correlated with the stock market.

What that Axios clown fails to mention is that you can buy shares or a REIT or two to gain uncorrelated stock gains just as well.

Also invest in Jeff Bezos's Arrived.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeff-bezos-backed-platform-now-121603833.html

Patrick says

I'd like prices to fall by 50%, and that would be very good for young families, but I find it hard to believe simply because of the concentrated political power that is determined to keep housing too expensive.

The only tool the national politicians have is creating gov backed 50-100 year loans. Local politicians can keep local prices up with restricting permits and strong zoning rules. Other than that, is market caused like when people will not sell and take the loss while losing a low payment 3% loan.

stereotomy says

What that Axios clown fails to mention is that you can buy shares or a REIT or two to gain uncorrelated stock gains just as well.

Article was funded by the NAR and/or Realtards.

https://www.almanacnews.com/peninsula/2025/11/24/property-values-fall-for-most-bay-area-homeowners-over-past-year/

A majority of U.S. households has seen home values slip over the past year, and the Bay Area is among the regions feeling the sharpest pullback, according to new research from Zillow.

Nationwide, 53% of homes are now worth less than they were one year ago — a jump from just 14% in 2024 — marking the highest share of annual declines since 2012, when the post-recession housing slump was nearing its end.

The slowdown is hitting hardest in parts of the West and South, especially in high-cost metros and regions that saw the fastest pandemic-era growth. In the San Francisco metropolitan area, which includes San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, and San Mateo counties, more than 80% of homes have lost value from last year. In the San Jose Metropolitan area, which includes Santa Clara and San Benito counties, the figure is 78%.

According to the report, average home values have fallen about 15% from their peak in the San Francisco metro area and 10.3% in San Jose — sharper declines than the national average of 10%.

Fellation of realtors follows, but the article started out honestly anyway.

Apartment Rents continue their national decline:


https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/02/apartment-rents-vacancies-november.html

Just wait until this time next year, after Powered Up ICE with billions in New Funding goes wild.

Case/Shiller came out last week. It was up a tiny bit from the prior month, which was up a tiny bit from the month before it. The previous 3 months were a tiny bit lower.

I wouldn't read too much into any projections for big moves in the national housing market next year. Fannie/Freddie and Zillow are forecasting a 1.5-1.9% increase in housing values nationwide for 2026.

There just ain't any volume. Less than 1% of residential properties were traded this last year. There's only about 2.1 million houses for sale. At $435k average house price, that's less than $1 trillion available. The stock market went up over $7 trillion this year in comparison.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA