patrick.net

AD says

How much do you see the median USA home price falling from its ~2022 high if the 30 yr conventional mortgage rate steadies between 5.75% and 6.25% ?

Well, let's see. The median priced home in 2022 was about $428,700. At 3.5%, the nut would be about $1,925/mo. To buy a $1,925/mo home at today's 6%, the home price would need to fall to about $322,000. To accommodate the slight wage inflation and the stickiness of falling prices, I suppose the same family that could afford $428,700 at 3.5% in 2022 could afford maybe $350,000 at 6% today. That could also be affected if property taxes and HOA fees had major increases since 2022.

So, I see a $350k median USA home price in late 2026 unless we get 50 year mortgages or gov sponsored down payments, etc.

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

Boomers and Early Xers have absolutely nothing to bitch about, unless they blew it all on Jet Skis and Stereos or 3 Ex-Wives.

Correct, but there is the issue that localities like the inflated house values and set property taxes accordingly. Even when prices fall, the localities will not want to give up their accustomed receipts so taxes will stay inflated.

I realized this not too long ago. Government pumps up real estate, because many at the top are invested in it. There won’t be a crash, they’ll just print money like they did last 2 bailouts. Prices will only go up.

We are all on a tight leash.

See below.

Depends on location in Florida as Florida Panhandle like Panama City Beach is within a day drive of Chicago (for those with family there) and has white sand beaches as well as many non-tourism jobs like Navy base, Tyndall AFB, Project InSPIRE, a +700 worker electric boat design and construction campus, Florida State campus, Gulf Coast College campus, Florida State University teaching hospital, etc.

Panama City / Bay County is adjusting for future demographic changes.

I can see whereas The Villages does not have any major job centers within a 1 hour drive.

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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15456887/retirement-home-florida-boomers-crisis.html

The problem is so bad, she said, that she does not know what will come of older, outdated retirement communities like Florida's The Villages, which is filled with Boomers.

'What is it, 350,000 homes in the middle of nowhere Florida?' she said.

'Is that gonna be low income housing at some point? Is it gonna be underwater in the future?

'Like, who's gonna live in The Villages once the Boomers are no longer on this earth?'

HeadSet says

So, I see a $350k median USA home price in late 2026 unless we get 50 year mortgages or gov sponsored down payments, etc.

Median price is now around $405,000.