patrick.net
An Antidote to Corporate Media
1,248,845 comments by 14,891 users - Booger, DemocratsAreTotallyFucked, KgK one, Misc, Patrick, rocketjoe79 online now
Rin has recognized that the Nasdaq is the Cap Gains arena
invite response
2022 May 25, 2:49pm 1,647 views 6 comments
« First « Previous Comments 2 - 6 of 6 Search these comments
3
stfu
2022 Jun 2, 12:11pm
Rin says
Can you run this analysis with SCHD and SPYD instead of your basket of individual dividend stocks?
The message is that even when that buy n hold portfolio was plunging, it was accumulating more shares than usual, making up for the cap gain losses.
Can you run this analysis with SCHD and SPYD instead of your basket of individual dividend stocks?
4
Rin
2022 Jun 2, 3:29pm
Rin
2022 Jun 2, 3:29pm
stfu says
Neither of those ETFs go back before the 2008 crash.
So while it's valid to hold onto the S&P 500 dividend payers, the problem is that the recent waves of QE have gotten the entire S&P500 to go up, making even good companies like P&G too expensive.
Can you run this analysis with SCHD and SPYD instead of your basket of individual dividend stocks?
Neither of those ETFs go back before the 2008 crash.
So while it's valid to hold onto the S&P 500 dividend payers, the problem is that the recent waves of QE have gotten the entire S&P500 to go up, making even good companies like P&G too expensive.
5
Rin
2022 Jun 2, 3:49pm
Rin
2022 Jun 2, 3:49pm
KgK one says
Here's a chart of VOO with the 40 week/200 day EMA & the MCAD histogram only using the default settings.
Throughout the bullish cycle, whenever the market was above the 200 EMA, the MCAD histogram would simply be a momentum indicator of the price action slowing down or gaining pace.
But then, post-2022, whenever the slope of the histogram slants upward, it's basically a re-test of the 200 EMA and not a turnaround of the market itself, from bear to bull. So the key here is for the market to close above the 200 EMA and then, if the MCAD histogram either stays flat or starts to slant upwards, then a reversal may be in effect. Otherwise, it's highly likely that it's just a bear market rally.
Ticker Voo ( snp 500) , has dividend
Good time to buy?
Here's a chart of VOO with the 40 week/200 day EMA & the MCAD histogram only using the default settings.
Throughout the bullish cycle, whenever the market was above the 200 EMA, the MCAD histogram would simply be a momentum indicator of the price action slowing down or gaining pace.
But then, post-2022, whenever the slope of the histogram slants upward, it's basically a re-test of the 200 EMA and not a turnaround of the market itself, from bear to bull. So the key here is for the market to close above the 200 EMA and then, if the MCAD histogram either stays flat or starts to slant upwards, then a reversal may be in effect. Otherwise, it's highly likely that it's just a bear market rally.
6
FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden
2022 Jun 2, 6:28pm
Rin says
so you don’t think itll be good market till 23?
KgK one saysTicker Voo ( snp 500) , has dividend
Good time to buy?
Here's a chart of VOO with the 40 week/200 day EMA & the MCAD histogram only using the default settings.
Throughout the bullish cycle, whenever the market was above the 200 EMA, the MCAD histogram would simply be a momentum indicator of the price action slowing down or gaining pace.
But then, post-2022, whenever the slope of the histogram slants upward, it's basically a re-test of the 200 EMA and not a turnaround of the market itself, from bear to bull. So the key here is for the market to close above the 200 EMA and then, if the MCAD histogram either stays flat or starts to slant upwards, then a reversal may be in effect. Otherwise, it's highly likely that it's just a bear market rally.
so you don’t think itll be good market till 23?
What they don't realize is that high P/E ratios, limited dividends, and a focus on the tech laden companies like Amazon, Google, Tesla, Facebook, NVDIA, etc, makes it into a poor man's Nasdaq for the average 401K plan.
So if that's the case then why not just trade the Nasdaq and take advantage of all the tech buzz because we know that even when it explodes, it appears to resurrect itself again in a short time to repeat the cycle.
I've put together two charts for the years 2007 to 2010, possible the most brutal years for the markets since the 30s.
The first is a comparison between actively trading the QQQ, in which one buys when the price is higher than the 40 week (~200 days) exponential moving average at the start of the month and then sells it at the end of the month vs buying and holding.
The biggest difference is that the drawdown period with the traded account is lower than the buy n hold.
Then, my comparison is the high dividend low cap gain club of Altria, British American Tobacco, Rio Tinto, Carl Ichan Enterprises, and Annaly Capital
Where yes, the dividends help in that major dip ...
And so if you mix it up, 25% for the QQQ trading and 75% for buy n hold dividend portfolio, you get a pretty good result at the end of the bear market.