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50, 75, 100?


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2022 Jun 13, 5:04am   46,175 views  308 comments

by Al_Sharpton_for_President   ➕follow (5)   💰tip   ignore  

This "relentlessly aggressive" stance could include raising interest rates by 0.75% on Wednesday, a move economists at Barclays said Friday is now their baseline expectation.

"Historically, the US central bank has avoided surprising markets – say, by going 75bp when it is not priced in," Barclays economists led by Jonathan Millar said in a note to clients published Friday.

"But next week, we feel, is likely to be an exception."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-puts-pressure-on-powell-what-to-know-this-week-162615319.html

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123   zzyzzx   2022 Nov 4, 5:58am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/world-plunging-towards-societal-collapse-154000368.html

World ‘plunging towards societal collapse’ as era of cheap money ends
124   AD   2022 Nov 5, 12:52am  

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/world-plunging-towards-societal-collapse-154000368.html

World ‘plunging towards societal collapse’ as era of cheap money ends


Its just an adjustment or almost a reset. When accounting for inflation, the S&P 500 has about a 5% negative return since February 2020. Housing may take about 2 to 3 years to adjust as well.

I see a lot of the homes converted to vacation rentals or AirBnB homes will start to lower their rates also as part of this adjustment.

Let's just hope the 22 to 35 year old population who gets laid off can handle this and pull themselves by their bootstraps. This may mean temporarily working 2 part time jobs, in order to make ends meet as well as continue to get back into a similar job.

I remember 2001 and 2008 and they were hard times as far as layoffs. But it seems this time that the population in general is fragile compared to back in 2001 and 2008.

At least we likely won't see a deflationary spiral. Perhaps at worst we get mild amount of stagflation.
.
125   Booger   2022 Nov 5, 4:24pm  

ad says

At least we likely won't see a deflationary spiral.


You wrote "deflationary spiral" as if it were a bad thing...
127   zzyzzx   2022 Nov 10, 9:47am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/october-consumer-prices-inflation-data-cpi-november-10-210744752.html

October CPI: Inflation moderates, rising at annual 7.7% over last year

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October reflected a 7.7% increase over last year and 0.4% increase over the prior month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday. Economists had expected prices rose at an annual 7.9% clip and 0.5% month-over-month, per Bloomberg consensus estimates.
128   AD   2022 Nov 10, 9:55am  

CPI was 8.2% (for last 12 months) for September 2022. With October 2022's CPI of 7.7%, this is a good sign and trend given that June 2022's was 9.1%.

So annual inflation or CPI has been slowly trending down. I suspect though the Fed will still raise the Fed Funds Rate in December from 4% o 4.25% at least.

All the tech stocks from Meta, Google, Amazon, and Apple are up a lot today. Never seen it go that krazy krazy. AMD is unreal today also.

.
129   clambo   2022 Nov 10, 12:28pm  

I follow the W5000 and it had a good bounce today.
130   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2022 Nov 30, 5:34am  

Fed's Powell: "You are all worthless and weak!"

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak about the economy and the labor market on Wednesday, Nov. 30, only two days before U.S. central bank officials stop talking publicly to prepare for their mid-month policy meeting.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-powell-to-speak-on-economy-on-nov-30-two-days-before-blackout-2022-11-18

131   zzyzzx   2022 Dec 8, 10:44am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-qualifying-rate-canada-may-184048144.html

Mortgage-Qualifying Rate in Canada May Top 8% After Latest Central Bank Hike
133   GNL   2022 Dec 8, 2:03pm  

High interest rates create strong men because high rates create/support conservatism.
135   GNL   2022 Dec 9, 7:29am  

No rise?
136   zzyzzx   2022 Dec 14, 11:13am  

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/14/fed-rate-decision-december-2022.html

Fed raises interest rates half a point to highest level in 15 years
137   GNL   2022 Dec 14, 11:30am  

zzyzzx says

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/14/fed-rate-decision-december-2022.html

Fed raises interest rates half a point to highest level in 15 years

Why would they talk about lowering rates in 2024 and 2025? Amazingly they can see that far ahead concerning lowering rates but not that far ahead when raising rates is needed?
138   Ceffer   2022 Dec 14, 12:06pm  

The screaming souls mourning their lost equities ring in the ESP verse.
140   clambo   2022 Dec 16, 6:18am  

Volker above created sky high interest rates.
141   GNL   2022 Dec 16, 9:00am  

zzyzzx says





Will it work?
142   Misc   2022 Dec 17, 12:56am  

13 States are increasing the minimum wage in 2023. This will drive up wages among the entire population without increasing output.

Whaddya think is going to happen?
143   Booger   2022 Dec 17, 5:06am  

GNL says

Will it work?

If they do a 50 basis point rise every month of 2023, it might. The fed also needs to sell off all it's mortgage backed securities.
144   HeadSet   2022 Dec 17, 6:17pm  

Misc says

13 States are increasing the minimum wage in 2023. This will drive up wages among the entire population without increasing output.

Whaddya think is going to happen?

Only if the minimum wage is higher than the current prevailing bottom wage. For example, the minimum wage in VA is now $11/hr, yet Target, McDonalds et al are starting people at $15/hr.
146   zzyzzx   2023 Jan 18, 6:11am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-isnt-coming-down-without-162416982.html

Inflation isn't coming down without a recession and interest rates will continue to skyrocket, JPMorgan Asset Management investment chief says

The bank's chief investment officer said prices would only cool if the labor market weakens and predicted interest rates would top 6%.
147   AmericanKulak   2023 Jan 18, 7:34am  

Misc says


13 States are increasing the minimum wage in 2023. This will drive up wages among the entire population without increasing output.


Where's @Patrick with his chart about productivity and wage increases?

Wages are way behind productivity gains for about 50 years, there's plenty of room for wage improvement.

Plus we had decades of low interest rates and money printing, so capital is definitely not the problem.
148   Misc   2023 Jan 18, 7:57am  

There is massive disillusionment in the workforce and rightly so. Wages have not kept up with inflation, to buy a house they are looking at near record low affordability, about 40% carry a balance on their credit card and that balance keeps rising and companies long ago stopped promoting from within.

What does the workforce do??

Productivity is down 4.1% on an annualized basis, the biggest decline since the government started keeping track of the number back in 1948. --- Oct 7, 2022

The Fed wants to increase unemployment in an environment where there are not enough workers. That'll just stress out those that are already overworked even more. The country is headed for that great socialist paradise that many counties have failed into.
149   GNL   2023 Jan 18, 8:24am  

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-isnt-coming-down-without-162416982.html

Inflation isn't coming down without a recession and interest rates will continue to skyrocket, JPMorgan Asset Management investment chief says

The bank's chief investment officer said prices would only cool if the labor market weakens and predicted interest rates would top 6%.

Rates are already 6%. "Skyrocket"?
150   Misc   2023 Jan 18, 8:26am  

GNL says

zzyzzx says


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-isnt-coming-down-without-162416982.html

Inflation isn't coming down without a recession and interest rates will continue to skyrocket, JPMorgan Asset Management investment chief says

The bank's chief investment officer said prices would only cool if the labor market weakens and predicted interest rates would top 6%.

Rates are already 6%. "Skyrocket"?


He was talking Fed funds rate.
151   GNL   2023 Jan 18, 8:26am  

It's greed, pure and simple.
152   Tenpoundbass   2023 Jan 18, 8:40am  

The greatest trick the establishment ever did, was convince the savers, that we need low interest rates, so that the Rich People wont have to spend so much money rewarding us for borrowing our money in their banks.

It's like chickens keeping the knives sharp for the farmer.
153   Patrick   2023 Jan 18, 11:52am  

AmericanKulak says

Where's Patrick with his chart about productivity and wage increases?

Wages are way behind productivity gains for about 50 years, there's plenty of room for wage improvement.

Plus we had decades of low interest rates and money printing, so capital is definitely not the problem.


Here's the chart:




https://patrick.net/post/1341417/2021-09-20-wtf-happened-in-1971
154   HeadSet   2023 Jan 18, 5:58pm  

Tenpoundbass says

The greatest trick the establishment ever did, was convince the savers, that we need low interest rates

Savers were not tricked into thinking low interest rates was a good idea, low interest rates were steamrollered onto savers with the support of reckless borrowers.
155   zzyzzx   2023 Jan 20, 6:43am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-williams-says-fed-needs-233645417.html

Fed's Williams says Fed needs more rate rises to cool inflation
156   HeadSet   2023 Jan 20, 8:24am  

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-williams-says-fed-needs-233645417.html

Fed's Williams says Fed needs more rate rises to cool inflation

Thursday the U.S. central bank has more rate hikes ahead

GOOD!
157   zzyzzx   2023 Feb 1, 11:27am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-interest-rates-decision-february-1-174421486.html

Federal Reserve raises interest rates another 0.25%

The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates Wednesday by a quarter percentage point, bringing its benchmark rate to a new range of 4.50% and 4.75%, the highest level since October 2007.
158   clambo   2023 Feb 1, 4:43pm  

Stocks for the long run.
159   GNL   2023 Feb 1, 4:47pm  

clambo says

Stocks for the long run.

Are you saying stocks are at a low? Higher rates will help?
160   clambo   2023 Feb 1, 5:04pm  

I'm saying I am happy that they raised interest rates only 0.25%, and the stock market was happy too.
Higher rates don't help, rather hurt stock prices.
When interest rates were almost 0%, and the the stock market dividend yield was 1.9%, everyone loved buying stocks.
When interest rates go much higher than the dividend yield, investors think about owning something besides stocks.
There is always new money out there looking for a place to be invested.
I'm going to let my capital appreciate for a few more years, and then start concentrating on income investments such as bond funds, dividend stock funds ("equity income" funds).
161   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2023 Feb 2, 3:30am  

There is a significant response lag (9 months?) for the rise in rates to hit the economy. We are just seeing the effects of the initial rate hikes. Stay tuned.
162   zzyzzx   2023 Feb 2, 5:19am  

Weak. .25 means the next hikes, if they occur, will also be measly .25 which isn't going to tame inflation anytime soon.

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