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232
AD
2023 Aug 31, 1:46pm
AD
2023 Aug 31, 1:46pm
.
PCE increased 0.2% from the end of June 2023 to the end of July 2023.
I think the Fed will not increase rates as long as the monthly increase average below 0.3% for a four-month moving average
PCE is more comprehensive of an inflation metric compared to CPI.
.
PCE increased 0.2% from the end of June 2023 to the end of July 2023.
I think the Fed will not increase rates as long as the monthly increase average below 0.3% for a four-month moving average
PCE is more comprehensive of an inflation metric compared to CPI.
.
234
AD
2023 Sep 20, 4:31pm
AD
2023 Sep 20, 4:31pm
Booger says
Next meetings are 31 October and December 12. I suspect they'll raise the rate at least one more time to 0.25% from 5.5% to 5.75%.
The rate at 5.5% is already at the highest its been in about 22 years. If CPI and PCE stay below 0.3% monthly and 3% annually then they may keep the rate constant.
Once again, the Fed does the wrong thing and leaves rates the same.
Next meetings are 31 October and December 12. I suspect they'll raise the rate at least one more time to 0.25% from 5.5% to 5.75%.
The rate at 5.5% is already at the highest its been in about 22 years. If CPI and PCE stay below 0.3% monthly and 3% annually then they may keep the rate constant.
235
GNL
2023 Sep 20, 6:16pm
GNL
2023 Sep 20, 6:16pm
They said they won't raise as much in 2024 as they did in 2023. So, I assume it's only going to go higher.
236
Misc
2023 Sep 20, 7:53pm
Based on the Fed's "Dot Plot", they are forecasting one more 1/4 point raise in 2023 then a 1/2 point decrease over 2024.
Meanwhile... the 10 year jumped 8 basis points so far. The Fed doesn't have a stellar forecasting record. In the currency markets the dollar is crushing everything.
Meanwhile... the 10 year jumped 8 basis points so far. The Fed doesn't have a stellar forecasting record. In the currency markets the dollar is crushing everything.
237
zzyzzx
2023 Sep 21, 6:58am
zzyzzx
2023 Sep 21, 6:58am
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/interest-rates-staying-higher-for-longer-means-at-least-through-2026-for-the-fed-100035115.html
Interest rates staying 'higher for longer' means at least through 2026 for the Fed
Interest rates staying 'higher for longer' means at least through 2026 for the Fed
238
AD
2023 Sep 21, 9:42pm
AD
2023 Sep 21, 9:42pm
zzyzzx says
So that means no recession before 2026
How long can the yield curve stay inverted ? Schwab has 1 month CD's at 5.5%
.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/interest-rates-staying-higher-for-longer-means-at-least-through-2026-for-the-fed-100035115.html
Interest rates staying 'higher for longer' means at least through 2026 for the Fed
So that means no recession before 2026
How long can the yield curve stay inverted ? Schwab has 1 month CD's at 5.5%
.
240
Booger
2023 Nov 1, 1:35pm
Booger
2023 Nov 1, 1:35pm
Rates remain the same. I'm OK with these current rates as long as they are never lowered.
241
zzyzzx
2023 Dec 13, 2:44pm
zzyzzx
2023 Dec 13, 2:44pm
Rates remain the same, again. I'm not convinced that they are going to raise them any more either, even though they should.
242
zzyzzx
2024 Jan 31, 11:45am
zzyzzx
2024 Jan 31, 11:45am
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-tempers-expectations-on-rate-cuts-ahead-190255912.html
Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged, tempers expectations on rate cuts ahead
Rare freak occasion where the Federal Reserve does the right thing.
Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged, tempers expectations on rate cuts ahead
Rare freak occasion where the Federal Reserve does the right thing.
244
zzyzzx
2024 Mar 1, 6:57am
zzyzzx
2024 Mar 1, 6:57am
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apollo-torsten-slok-says-fed-131511825.html
Apollo’s Torsten Slok Says Fed Will Not Cut Rates in 2024
Apollo Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok said that a re-accelerating US economy, coupled with a rise in underlying inflation, will prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in 2024.
Apollo’s Torsten Slok Says Fed Will Not Cut Rates in 2024
Apollo Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok said that a re-accelerating US economy, coupled with a rise in underlying inflation, will prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in 2024.
246
zzyzzx
2024 Mar 5, 12:06pm
zzyzzx
2024 Mar 5, 12:06pm
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/01/investing/the-fed-may-not-cut-rates-this-year/index.html
The US economy is so strong that there might not be any rate cuts in 2024
The US economy is so strong that there might not be any rate cuts in 2024
247
zzyzzx
2024 Mar 19, 5:16am
zzyzzx
2024 Mar 19, 5:16am
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boj-dovish-tone-first-rate-044641163.html
Japan Ends Era of Negative Rates With Few Clues on Further Hikes
Japan Ends Era of Negative Rates With Few Clues on Further Hikes
248
GNL
2024 Mar 19, 5:18am
GNL
2024 Mar 19, 5:18am
zzyzzx says
How come it doesn't feel strong?
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/01/investing/the-fed-may-not-cut-rates-this-year/index.html
The US economy is so strong that there might not be any rate cuts in 2024
How come it doesn't feel strong?
250
HeadSet
2024 Mar 19, 12:07pm
HeadSet
2024 Mar 19, 12:07pm
GNL says
"Strong economy" is Donkey speak for "high inflation" when Biden is in power. Saying "We cannot lower rates when inflation is still high" sounds bad.
zzyzzx says
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/01/investing/the-fed-may-not-cut-rates-this-year/index.html
The US economy is so strong that there might not be any rate cuts in 2024
How come it doesn't feel strong?
"Strong economy" is Donkey speak for "high inflation" when Biden is in power. Saying "We cannot lower rates when inflation is still high" sounds bad.
251
zzyzzx
2024 Mar 20, 9:22am
zzyzzx
2024 Mar 20, 9:22am
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-reserve-meeting-rate-cut-march-2024/
The Fed is meeting this week. Here's what experts are saying about the odds of a rate cut.
With the central bank meeting Wednesday, economists and consumers alike have one question on their minds: When will the central bank start cutting rates?
The answer: Almost certainly not this month, and probably not at its next meeting, according to Wall Street forecasters.
The Fed is meeting this week. Here's what experts are saying about the odds of a rate cut.
With the central bank meeting Wednesday, economists and consumers alike have one question on their minds: When will the central bank start cutting rates?
The answer: Almost certainly not this month, and probably not at its next meeting, according to Wall Street forecasters.
252
Blue
2024 Mar 20, 9:45am
zzyzzx says
Lot of Tech companies are giving warnings about slowing growth for the next 3 quarters. Perhaps other sectors might be doing ok!
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/01/investing/the-fed-may-not-cut-rates-this-year/index.html
The US economy is so strong that there might not be any rate cuts in 2024
Lot of Tech companies are giving warnings about slowing growth for the next 3 quarters. Perhaps other sectors might be doing ok!
253
AD
2024 Mar 20, 10:23am
AD
2024 Mar 20, 10:23am
.
Googl is at 147 and all time high was 148 in November 2021.
Likely 150 to 155 is the ceiling price in 2024 for Googl if the economy does not accelerate any more, unless Googl does more cost cutting.
.
Googl is at 147 and all time high was 148 in November 2021.
Likely 150 to 155 is the ceiling price in 2024 for Googl if the economy does not accelerate any more, unless Googl does more cost cutting.
.
254
Misc
2024 Mar 20, 11:23am
Annnnnnnnnnnnnnd the rate stays the same as forecasted. Still looking at (3) 25 basis point cuts in 2024, but looking at only (3) cuts in 2025 from a previous estimated (4).
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-holds-interest-rates-steady-maintains-forecast-for-3-rate-cuts-in-2024-180231430.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-holds-interest-rates-steady-maintains-forecast-for-3-rate-cuts-in-2024-180231430.html
257
zzyzzx
2024 Apr 3, 10:20am
zzyzzx
2024 Apr 3, 10:20am
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/03/atlanta-fed-president-bostic-sees-only-one-rate-cut-this-year-occurring-in-the-fourth-quarter.html
Atlanta Fed President Bostic sees only one rate cut this year, occurring in the fourth quarter
Atlanta Fed President Bostic sees only one rate cut this year, occurring in the fourth quarter
258
zzyzzx
2024 Apr 4, 8:38am
zzyzzx
2024 Apr 4, 8:38am
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/03/feds-powell-emphasizes-need-for-more-evidence-that-inflation-is-easing-before-cutting-rates.html
Fed’s Powell emphasizes need for more evidence that inflation is easing before cutting rates
Fed’s Powell emphasizes need for more evidence that inflation is easing before cutting rates
259
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2024 Apr 4, 8:44am
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2024 Apr 4, 8:44am
zzyzzx says
How about deflation to get prices back to where they were three years ago?
Fed’s Powell emphasizes need for more evidence that inflation is easing before cutting rates
How about deflation to get prices back to where they were three years ago?
260
AD
2024 Apr 4, 12:05pm
AD
2024 Apr 4, 12:05pm
Al_Sharpton_for_President says
never going to happen as the Federal Reserve will not sit by idly and let prices drop
if you are lucky, then you may observe income rise at a slightly greater rate than guvmint-reported inflation
How about deflation to get prices back to where they were three years ago?
never going to happen as the Federal Reserve will not sit by idly and let prices drop
if you are lucky, then you may observe income rise at a slightly greater rate than guvmint-reported inflation
261
GNL
2024 Apr 4, 2:48pm
GNL
2024 Apr 4, 2:48pm
AD says
That ain't gonna happen either. Not on a large scale anyway.
if you are lucky, then you may observe income rise at a slightly greater rate than guvmint-reported inflation
That ain't gonna happen either. Not on a large scale anyway.
262
zzyzzx
2024 Apr 9, 8:47am
zzyzzx
2024 Apr 9, 8:47am
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/04/08/jamie-dimon-head-of-us-largest-bank-warns-of-8-interest-rates-along-with-recession/
Jamie Dimon—Head Of U.S.’ Largest Bank—Warns Of 8% Interest Rates Along With Recession
A chilly scenario for the U.S. economy, in which interest rates climb as high as 8% as the effects of the unprecedented monetary policy taken to combat inflation take hold, is still very much on the table, according to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon.
The odds of a goldilocks soft landing outcome for the economy are “a lot lower” than the consensus of a 70% to 80% likelihood, Dimon outlined in his annual letter to JPMorgan shareholders Monday.
Coupled with Dimon’s concerns about the potential for “stagflation,” a recession characterized by lingering high inflation, he warned interest rates could soar to “8% or even more,” a far cry from the already 22-year high rates of over 5% and going against conventional wisdom of a looming decline in rates (U.S. interest rates have not been 8% or higher since 1990).
Dimon explained there are several “persistent inflationary pressures” which could keep price increases sticky, including the rise in military conflict globally and the lingering effects of aggressive policy from central banks worldwide coming out of the pandemic.
The billionaire Dimon also warned about the potential for carnage for both equity and debt investors should a higher-rate scenario play out, noting stock valuations are already at their “high end” and credit conditions are “extremely tight.”
Dimon’s warnings come as investor sentiment looks rosy—major stock indexes sit at record highs as the market eagerly awaits lower interest rates. JPMorgan is by far the largest American bank by assets and market value, holding roughly $2.7 trillion in domestic assets by the end of last year. Dimon is worth about $2.2 billion, according to Forbes’ latest estimates, owing most of his fortune to his stake in his bank. JPMorgan grew its already massive book by 6% last year thanks in part to its May 2023 acquisition of failed regional bank First Republic, a takeover Dimon characterized Monday as “something that we would have done just for ourselves” but rather a decision to stabilize the U.S. banking system writ large.
Jamie Dimon—Head Of U.S.’ Largest Bank—Warns Of 8% Interest Rates Along With Recession
A chilly scenario for the U.S. economy, in which interest rates climb as high as 8% as the effects of the unprecedented monetary policy taken to combat inflation take hold, is still very much on the table, according to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon.
The odds of a goldilocks soft landing outcome for the economy are “a lot lower” than the consensus of a 70% to 80% likelihood, Dimon outlined in his annual letter to JPMorgan shareholders Monday.
Coupled with Dimon’s concerns about the potential for “stagflation,” a recession characterized by lingering high inflation, he warned interest rates could soar to “8% or even more,” a far cry from the already 22-year high rates of over 5% and going against conventional wisdom of a looming decline in rates (U.S. interest rates have not been 8% or higher since 1990).
Dimon explained there are several “persistent inflationary pressures” which could keep price increases sticky, including the rise in military conflict globally and the lingering effects of aggressive policy from central banks worldwide coming out of the pandemic.
The billionaire Dimon also warned about the potential for carnage for both equity and debt investors should a higher-rate scenario play out, noting stock valuations are already at their “high end” and credit conditions are “extremely tight.”
Dimon’s warnings come as investor sentiment looks rosy—major stock indexes sit at record highs as the market eagerly awaits lower interest rates. JPMorgan is by far the largest American bank by assets and market value, holding roughly $2.7 trillion in domestic assets by the end of last year. Dimon is worth about $2.2 billion, according to Forbes’ latest estimates, owing most of his fortune to his stake in his bank. JPMorgan grew its already massive book by 6% last year thanks in part to its May 2023 acquisition of failed regional bank First Republic, a takeover Dimon characterized Monday as “something that we would have done just for ourselves” but rather a decision to stabilize the U.S. banking system writ large.
267
zzyzzx
2024 Apr 15, 11:44am
zzyzzx
2024 Apr 15, 11:44am
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-hiking-rates-6-5-164050747.html
Fed Hiking Rates to 6.5% Is ‘Real Risk’ for UBS Strategists
Fed Hiking Rates to 6.5% Is ‘Real Risk’ for UBS Strategists
269
HeadSet
2024 Apr 15, 1:00pm
HeadSet
2024 Apr 15, 1:00pm
zzyzzx says
(Bloomberg) -- The combination of strong US growth and sticky inflation is raising the odds the Federal Reserve hikes rather than cuts interest rates, bringing borrowing costs to as high as 6.5% next year, according to UBS Group AG strategists.
Good. It is pay now or fuel hyperinflation later.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-hiking-rates-6-5-164050747.html
Fed Hiking Rates to 6.5% Is ‘Real Risk’ for UBS Strategists
(Bloomberg) -- The combination of strong US growth and sticky inflation is raising the odds the Federal Reserve hikes rather than cuts interest rates, bringing borrowing costs to as high as 6.5% next year, according to UBS Group AG strategists.
Good. It is pay now or fuel hyperinflation later.
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"Historically, the US central bank has avoided surprising markets – say, by going 75bp when it is not priced in," Barclays economists led by Jonathan Millar said in a note to clients published Friday.
"But next week, we feel, is likely to be an exception."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-puts-pressure-on-powell-what-to-know-this-week-162615319.html