patrick.net

zzyzzx says

Down .25% today. Unfortunately.

I didn’t look at much at its direct correlation and various other factors but given the current RE state over the years, it almost follows 20:80 rule in general. Only top 20% can afford to buy in most markets in the country. Top 10, 5 and 1% buy premium properties respectively.
Factors like recession, inflation, wealth diversification, debt etc are managed by professionals for them.
Based on this perspective, it’s unlikely RE prices would “crash”!
Might get stable for some time at best.
I am a firm believer that all the stupid governments never stop printing money and keep pushing inflation and looting poor and middle class people who can’t escape.
If we don’t see them printing, that means they found a trick and hiding for that period ;)
This eventually will reflect on all the real assets.

Steve Grasso, a CNBC contributor says Fed Funds rate will go down to 3%. I thought the Fed would stop at 3.75% as they usually keep a +1% margin above the annual inflation rate. I see annual inflation remaining within range of 2.5% to 3%.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/steve-grasso-fed-funds-rate-will-settle-around-3-and-will-unlock-the-housing-market/vi-AA1MLgAM

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If the Fed doesn't lower rates dramatically, expect to see 2-5% daily price swings between major currency pairs. It won't be the US implementing capital controls, but a shit ton of foreign countries will freak the fuck out.

Misc says

If the Fed doesn't lower rates dramatically, expect to see 2-5% daily price swings between major currency pairs. It won't be the US implementing capital controls, but a shit ton of foreign countries will freak the fuck out.

Money markets at Schwab will still pay whatever the Fed Funds rate is now (I suspect about 4.1%).

This will continue to attract foreign money as it safely pays a real or inflation adjusted annual return of at least 1.5%.

Banks charging prime rate of about 7.25% for money lent; that money comes from money market fund deposits earning 4.0%. Let alone the banks make money off loan origination fees.
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AD says

Banks charging prime rate of about 7.25% for money lent; that money comes from money market fund deposits earning 4.0%. Let alone the banks make money off loan origination fees.

Nope, those loans come from deposits and CDs. Money market accounts can only invest in very short term investments that are highly rated. Mostly US government paper.

MolotovCocktail says

Yeah? Home prices still have to drop.

HeadSet says

Yes, but lowering rates increases house prices. For the same mortgage payment, it is better to have a low price and a high rate as that allows more of any extra payments to go to paying down principle. Also, higher prices mean higher assessments and thus higher taxes. The solution to affordability is not "affordable rates," it is the prices coming down from the lofty highs caused by the ZIRP era.

Yep, the problem is the price, not the rate. The $200-400/mo. savings from a 1-2% rate cut does not begin to cover the added 30-40% increase in maintenance/repairs, insurance, property taxes, etc.

The way to lower insurance, property tax bills, make housing affordable, etc. is to pound the price down.

I predict a slight uptick in sales, followed by a continued buyer's strike.

The mortgage rate ticked back up to 6.22% after Monday's rate cut knocked it down a peg to 6.13%

https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/real-estate/2025/09/18/will-mortgage-interest-rates-drop-after-federal-reserve-rate-cut/86208818007/?gnt-cfr=1&gca-cat=p&gca-uir=true&gca-epti=z11xx35p118950c118950e009300v11xx35b0060xxd006065&gca-ft=168&gca-ds=sophi

"OMG 6% is too high". It's freakin' normal. 3-4% is the freak