patrick.net

richwicks says

Russia, for example, should never have bought US dollars, they should have always bought gold.

Yeah, Russia had a lot of US debt holdings, about $120 billion. (source: https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/30/investing/russia-us-debt-treasury/index.html)

How it only has about $67 million (source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1226054/value-of-united-states-treasury-securities-held-by-russia)

China has been selling off its US debt holdings since around 2015. I think that was just after Obama had visited Vietnam.

But I see the point about holding US debt that has barely a 0% real (or inflation adjusted) return.

So foreign countries like Saudi Arabia, Brazil and Mexico will hold Chinese yuan (in stable assets like Chinese debt) and use that to buy Chinese crap.

No more $150 Chromebook at Walmart after all this goes down. Maybe its price doubles because of the yuan's rise against the US dollar.

And instead of $85 for a large air fryer oven I recently bought, it will cost $150 on Amazon. The fly rod I recently bought on Amazon (and made in China) for $80 will cost double that also.

In a way its going to feel like when I was a young kid in the late 1970's and getting 1 nice present for Christmas (i.e, Colecovision Mister Quarterback), and having to wait until 1986 for an Atari 2600.

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ad says

In a way its going to feel like when I was a young kid in the late 1970's and getting 1 nice present for Christmas (i.e, Colecovision Mister Quarterback), and having to wait until 1986 for an Atari 2600.

I miss those days. TV, stereo,phone, ect every 20 years. I had intelivision.

https://rudy.substack.com/p/noted

Banks were not able to open branches across state lines until 1997.

The whole cabal theory of banks running the government and the world is a relatively new phenomenon.

The Rothschild family got its start when Meyer Rothschild, a Frankfurt moneylender, sent his 5 sons to establish banks in the finance capitals of the time across Europe.

They then cooperated with each other across national boundaries via a fast private postal service. This allowed them to take advantage of news before anyone else knew it. They got rich and powerful enough that they started making national economic policy for several countries.

Misc says

Banks were not able to open branches across state lines until 1997.

The branches of the Federal Reserve? Every NY cartel bank?

"TROUBLE IN THE YIELD CURVE This comes from a close friend and lifelong commodity trader:

“I think a very important thing just happened at the short end of the yield curve. As we discussed several months back, I was waiting to see the one-month T-Bill yield “whip” above the 3-month on out, for the next credit crunch signal.

“Well, we got that whip this past week, and it was a big one, some 160 basis points move, in just a few days, since 4/26/23 4/27/23 (3.9% to 5.6%) as the one-month almost instantly topped the farther out. For this kind of sharp move, so rare in the very short end of the curve, may very well suggest that a “crisis” scramble for emergency credit needs, across the debt reliant industries. That is to say, the whole world economy.

"Pull up the yield curve at https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/ and walk the chart back to 4/26/23 and 4/27/23 to see it for yourself. The last time you got this kind of inversion (I need to double-check my recollection) the prime rate ended-up at just over 21%, in 1980.”

Look here for a graph of the US 3 month T- note yield less the one month note yield. For the yield curve between the 10 year T-note and 3 month bond, look at this chart."

- Franklin Sanders

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST3M-%24UST1M&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p84944719984&a=1408011036
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24YC3MO&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p11202159079&a=669054102

NuttBoxer says

The last time you got this kind of inversion (I need to double-check my recollection) the prime rate ended-up at just over 21%, in 1980.”

Good. This means house and car prices will fall now that irresponsible borrowers will be hobbled.

https://rudy.substack.com/p/the-evil-of-the-fed-is-that-it-places

As friend of the show Matt Stoller wrote in 2020: Every Federal Reserve Board Member Is A Multi-Millionaire ...

But Quarles isn’t a mere millionaire:

“Randal Quarles, 62, is worth between $24.7 million and $125 million” (Love those government ranges).

And this was in 2020, so he’s likely worth $40 billion or something today, after all the bailouts from, well, you know, the place he worked until recently. Weird how that works.

But this is what really bugged me about multi-gazillionare nepotism-beneficiary wunderkind Randal Quarles:




What a slap in the face to 90% of America. Screw you, Randal Quarles.
Quarles is so rich it doesn't matter to him if inflation is 2% or 40% or 4000%.

In his first 21 months on the job, Randal K. Quarles, the Federal Reserve’s vice chairman for supervision and regulation, met at least 22 times with partners at his former law firm, Davis Polk & Wardwell, which represents many of the nation’s largest banks.

Those meetings, disclosed in public schedules and other releases, suggest a closeness between America’s most important bank regulator and the industry he watches over. ...

Patrick says

Those meetings, disclosed in public schedules and other releases, suggest a closeness between America’s most important bank regulator and the industry he watches over. ...

TurboTax Timmy had Jamie Dimon's number on speed dial.

HeadSet says

Patrick says

Those meetings, disclosed in public schedules and other releases, suggest a closeness between America’s most important bank regulator and the industry he watches over. ...

TurboTax Timmy had Jamie Dimon's number on speed dial.

Timothy Geithner didn't even bother to file taxes for several years.

May have posted this before.

Patrick says

I thought the Titanic sinking was testing in production...

Let's see... Saudi and Russia just agreed to extend their production cuts until the end of the year. This pushed up oil prices.

Does anybody else think that the Fed will bite at the higher "inflation rate" and hike interest rates again???

Misc says

Does anybody else think that the Fed will bite at the higher "inflation rate" and hike interest rates again???

I certainly hope so.

https://notthebee.com/article/costco-is-rapidly-selling-out-of-gold-bars-in-other-news-costco-apparently-now-sells-gold-bars

Costco is rapidly selling out of gold bars. In other news, Costco apparently sells gold bars.

Patrick says

look at zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) and quantitative easing from 2009 to 2016 with total debt to GDP ratio rising from about 60% in early 2009 to 105% by Obama admin's final year (it was 107% in February 2020)

and yet supposedly inflation was no more than 2% a year according to government reported statistics

granted housing crashed and the stock market dropped about 55% so it was going to take more than a 3 years to recover

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His father Ron Paul also tried. I admire their tenacity.

Patrick says

Costco is rapidly selling out of gold bars. In other news, Costco apparently sells gold bars.

Can you return it if the price goes down?

https://vigilantfox.substack.com/p/senator-rand-paul-calls-on-us-senate

On Wednesday, November 1, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul urged the U.S. Senate to vote “yes” to an amendment that would require a full audit of the Federal Reserve within one year.

Here is his full statement:

The Federal Reserve effectively controls the economy but without scrutiny. No other institution has so much unchecked power. The Fed demonstrated its unlimited authority during the Pandemic. The Fed printed money, purchased government-backed securities, and doled out massive amounts of money to favored industries. The result added almost $5 trillion to the Fed's balance sheet, the largest in our history.

When Dodd-Frank ordered a limited one-time audit of Fed actions, the Government Accountability Office uncovered that during the financial crisis, the Fed doled out over $16 trillion to domestic and foreign banks. This kind of inflationary bailout should not be kept secret from the public. While the Fed's easy money policies make the rich richer, the side effect is high inflation.

As Milton Friedman famously explained, "Inflation is taxation without legislation." Congress cannot control the Fed's actions, but Fed actions can cost Americans dearly. Just ask any parent who has to feed his or her family during historically-high inflation rates. My amendment would require a full audit of the Fed within one year. It is time for the Federal Reserve to operate in a manner that is transparent and accountable to the taxpayers. I ask for a yes vote.

I suspect that the Fed has been secretly used to fund globalist/leftist causes and companies for a long time now, and this is why they can never allow a real audit.

The Federal Reserve is constrained as far as not worsening the ability of the Federal Government to sustain debt service. It is about solvency, as far as debt being manageable.

Interest costs represented about 8 percent of total federal outlays in 2022. By 2033, that share will rise to 14 percent and will exceed programs such as defense and Medicaid.
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ad says

The Federal Reserve is constrained as far as not worsening the ability of the Federal Government to sustain debt service. It is about solvency, as far as debt being manageable.

Interest costs represented about 8 percent of total federal outlays in 2022. By 2033, that share will rise to 14 percent and will exceed programs such as defense and Medicaid.
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Doesn't matter what the Fed does if Congress doesn't cut back on spending anyway.

PumpingRedheads says

Doesn't matter what the Fed does if Congress doesn't cut back on spending anyway.

Which we know won't happen.