patrick.net

thank you for calling Kunster's post to our attention.

During the previous Housing Bubble (can you say, "Casey Serin"?) I reckoned it would result in a Financial Crisis or Depression or Economic Collapse, any of which the playbook would be Money Printing. I did not expect HyperInflation, but was open minded it could happen.
I viewed "pre-buying" energy in 2006 with a rooftop solar, could be a hedge against hyperinflation.

So I studied this to death for a couple of years. Like the PG&E EV-charging plan that EV fanboys disingenuously cherry pick their utility bill about, I found that the rooftop solar would not pencil out for me. And I did not anticipate the problems Kunstler cited. It was just a financial decision.

I friend of mine in SJ, boasted about his rooftop solar, low PG&E bill, etc. He boasted how savvy he was to use a well-established roofing company Peterson Dean instead of an in-vogue hipster solar company that might be bought out or go out of business. He boasted about how he could run his AC full blast during that horrid heat wave we had in 2020 during the fires, with no electric bill.

Then, like Kunstler, his installation died. Some expensive components needed replacing. The well-established roofing company went bankrupt, something about too many solar loans going bad. He shared how the company that picked (like a vulture) at the remains of the dead company found loopholes or delaying tactics about honoring the bankrupt company's warranty. His rooftop solar was inoperative but he was still on the hook for the loan. Eventually he got it fixed but I think he paid for the repairs.

Then he moved to the Central Valley and is renting out his former SJ residence. His tenant is enjoying the "free" electricity.

Great piece.

I had a coworker who boasted about how he now had reliable electricity and was set in case the CA grid was unreliable again because he added a tesla powerwall to his home, although he lamented about the huge expense.

You should have seen his face when I told him "ya I thought about that, but decided to just spend $600 on a generator + some propane cylinders".

I can only imagine what went through his head. "bububut I did so much research and read some many articles. why did none of them mention a generator??? why did they all seem to point me to batteries and redirect me to expensive solar companies?"

To be fair, a solar system that can supply power silently for years if the grid is down is a very nice thing, and doesnt really need to be expensive unless you insist on a large system that's capable of supplying enough power to run all kinds of high current electric stuff, like clothes dryers, welders, fast electric car chargers etc... a system that just gives meager power sufficient for lights, fridge, and basics is probably not too expensive. You can always fire up a cheap portable generator for peaking loads if needed.

They will tell you the years down 'break even' estimates (probably overly generous) around start up and installation costs without telling you that the infrastructures are vulnerable to deterioration don't include repairs and infrastructure replacements into the costs. Batteries for one are not things that last forever, and they hold less and less charge as time goes on.