patrick.net

EBGuy says

stereotomy says

Man, that was an epic trade out of silver in 2010ish. iTulip (RIP) to the rescue on that one.

Here's the chart for the silver run up back then. Still in awe of Ducky as he traded physical...

That was an epic trade.

Gold holding strong, kissing $1800 briefly earlier today. Where are those multiple 75 bps hikes? I want gold at $2500 and mortgage rates at 10+%!

Misc says

They have done it before. I will bet they will do it again.

Like outlawing guns, and shutting down the Pirate Bay? Good fucking luck.

richwicks says

They were paying for storage, so yes.

You are saying that it makes sense that a commodity like oil can be valued at $50 one week and the next week its valued at $0 and the week after valued at $100. That seems kinda crazy to me. But i do agree that "paper oil" could be manipulated like that, just like all other paper commodities. I'd like to see if something like "lean hogs" could go down to $0.

stereotomy says

Here's the chart for the silver run up back then. Still in awe of Ducky as he traded physical...

You mean when he claimed to have bought at the bottom and sold at the peak a few days after it nosedived? Like the BTC players..

Gold/silver ratio at 96. Silver is at a 2-year low, but it’s not gold that will determine what happens next, this analyst says.

komputodo says

Like the BTC players..

For a while the "market cap" (calculated by multiplying the price of a stock by its total number of outstanding shares) of BTC was more than silver, and many major companies. The price of BTC crashed.

The spot price of silver is currently around $18 an ounce. If you actually wanted to buy an ounce of silver you would have to pay a premium. If you wanted to buy a Silver Eagle you would have to pay over $30 per Troy ounce. If you wanted to buy a thousand ounce bar (smallest premium) you would still have to pay a couple thousand over the spot price.

Dollars, Euros, crypto, and the paper metal market ounces can be created ad infinitum by fiat. I suspect the difference between the spot price of gold and silver and fiat will increase until paper and e-money become worthless.

This fiat system can't go on forever.

Channeling MEGA from iTulip here:

GOLD IS GETTING KILLED!

I guess now that the pound and the Euro are going tits-up, the USD is the last man standing. The fed funds rate increases play in nicely to dollar strength. It might end up just like the housing bubble implosion. Gold tanked initially-mostly because of liquidations to satisfy margin calls, then hit $1920.

I want to see mortgage rates top 8% - that represents a 40% decrease in housing prices based on 10% price reduction for every 1% 30 Year MTG rate increase.

stereotomy says

GOLD IS GETTING KILLED!

SPDR Gold Trust
peak in 2011: $183
current price: $151.45

It's kind of bizarre how the dollar is doing so well against everything as the world turns to shit.

Patrick says

It's kind of bizarre how the dollar is doing so well against everything as the world turns to shit.

Adjusted for inflation, the S&P 500 is only about 2.3% above its February 2020 level. So many stocks having taken a +50% beating reminiscent of the dot com bust.

,

Patrick says

It's kind of bizarre how the dollar is doing so well against everything as the world turns to shit.

The reason is that most central banks have been printing far more money than the Fed, Japan, ECB etc. Everything is relative and while pretty much all currencies are being debased the Dollar may be stronger than most. Actually a little.bit of money printing is fine to make up for those notes that get destroyed/lost each year, but it's probably 0.0000001% of the Feds yearly printing.

mell says

Patrick says

It's kind of bizarre how the dollar is doing so well against everything as the world turns to shit.

The reason is that most central banks have been printing far more money than the Fed, Japan, ECB etc. Everything is relative and while pretty much all currencies are being debased the Dollar may be stronger than most. Actually a little.bit of money printing is fine to make up for those notes that get destroyed/lost each year, but it's probably 0.0000001% of the Feds yearly printing.

Inflation isn't directly linked to prices, it's directly linked to the money supply. If the Fed increases the money supply by 2%, that's the inflation rate, they are the same thing. Keynesian economics has perverted this definition.

The reason the target inflation is 2%, is that at the time the Fed was allowed to be created, that is how much more gold was added to the system at the time. The Fed just printed more dollars than they had gold, and they went bankrupt in 1933. Instead of beheading these assholes, or even just jailing them, or even firing them, the US government just debased the dollar and did nothing.

The criminals continued to act as criminals, and once again they defaulted in 1971.

And this is our final default coming up. This is why there's all this stupid talk about "the great reset".

I'm noticing lots of chatter on the itnterwebs about buying gold even from non-goldbugs lately.

Partly due to BRICS preparing a new gold backed currency but also due to a new bill (less than 2 weeks old) that was just submitted by a congress critter to put the $ back on the gold standard:

https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/9157?s=1&r=6

Trump had hoped to do this as well...

Patrick says

It's kind of bizarre how the dollar is doing so well against everything as the world turns to shit.

It's actually not. That's what raising interest rates does. But they won't go too far down that road as it wipes out the stock market.

I don't know, isn't the dollar basically gold anyway? We have the resources. We have the transportation (rail, road and waterway). We have the best military. We have mostly friendly neighbors. I get we're already in a recession basically, but could someone explain why someone wouldn't want a dollar?

Going to Mexico in a couple weeks. They will take my dollars and pay the exchange rate on the back end happily for tipping. Same with the Dominican. Same with Jamaica. Aruba. Cayman. Bahamas. Belize. The list goes on of places that I've gone that take a USD.

Mind you I'll bring Pesos from here because you'll get fleeced in MX exchanging $ to Peso. But that's for small vendors and excursions because they'll just make up the fucking exchange rate. Locals in these countries want USD. Why do you think we have a border crisis? They're not coming here for gold. They come here for the USD.

WookieMan says

but could someone explain why someone wouldn't want a dollar?

See the inflation rate, it's literally your time being taken from you, which is the ONLY thing of value in our system.

WookieMan says

The list goes on of places that I've gone that take a USD.

Yes, this is the way it works when your fiat is backing theirs.

WookieMan says

They come here for the USD.

They come here for free handouts, or because the CIA fucked up their country. People from outside the US know better than Americans how flimsy fiat is. That's why most of them don't open bank accounts, and many still use jewelry, coins, etc to store their wealth.

WookieMan says

I don't know, isn't the dollar ...(everything in between he wrote)... They come here for the USD.

Well said Wookie Man!

The Federal Reserve Note is not a dollar. A dollar is a specific weight of silver. It is a debt note, says it right on the paper. It's part of a system conceived to enslave us through inflation, leverage, lying and manipulation.

The Federal Reserve is a private central bank founded by the New York cartel in cooperation with foreign interests. A Federal Reserve Note isn't any more American than a Pound from the Bank of England, or a Ruble from the Bank of Russia. In fact, many of the same interests share ownership across all central banks.

But maybe I'm mis-understanding. You guys think illegals are really covering 40+ miles a day walking in sandals because they want to share in our debt? And because we have the reserve debt, nothing can possibly go wrong, so leverage away! Weimer, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Rome, those are just fantasies. Record homelessness, that's just a rumor. Record inflation and energy prices, just a mirage. It's Bush's fault, no it's Obama's, no it's Trump's, no it's Biden's. No common thread, no central bank printing us into the poor house. Just keep voting, things will change!

BTW, you need a second job. BTW, you can't afford meat. Eat ze bugs! Convert to CDBC's, they're so convenient you won't have to even decide what to buy, it's already decided for you! Take another booster, another germ warfare shot. Go die in Ukraine, in Afganistan, in Jordan, in Syria, in Yemen. Your kids are groomed to be sex slaves, your dreams are monitored, your brain is neuro-linked, you've joined the Borg. But hey, at least we had the FUCKING FEDERAL RESERVE DEBT NOTES! THAT FUCKING JUSTIFIES EVERYTHING!!!

Yes, I have a pre-FDR era $2 bill that says "Payable in Silver upon Demand"

Gold not getting killed, or at least the killing has paused for the time being.

Up above $1680, but still $350 below its pandemic peak. There was some wild spot price action around the latest Fed rate hike, but TBH I don't know if this latest increase is a general acknowledgement that inflation is here to stay, or "something else?"

"GOOD FOR THE GOOSE? The World Gold Council reported that in 2022’s third quarter central banks bought 399 tonnes of gold, almost double the previous record. Can somebody please explain to me — in the teeth of conventional financial advice — why buying gold is good for central banks but not for individuals? Or why they are buying so much right now? If gold is good for the Money Masters, wouldn’t it be good for me, too? You don’t reckon these experts would mislead us, do you?"

- Franklin Sanders

.

iShares Silver Trust is up about 19% in last 3 weeks

When the dollar index (ticker: DXY) was bottoming in 2011 and 2021, silver and gold were peaking.

It will be interesting to see how silver and gold do when the Fed Funds rate peaks and the DXY steadies and drops slightly.

.

What drives the gold market?

interest rates? General fear of inflation?

Real, or paper? Paper is always driven by manipulation, because just like all fiat, you can leverage and print without having to actually do anything to earn more value. Real doesn't really change over time. The seeming fluctuation in value is due to fiat paper unwinding/collapsing, and economic instability. It is the traditional hedge against bad times, and that's never going to change.

Patrick says

What drives the gold market?

interest rates? General fear of inflation?

I would think it is investors thinking it's a safe haven against inflation (and/or a weakening dollar compared to other currencies). It is a very speculative asset so a lot of investing in gold may be emotional or fear based.

I don't think investors are buying up gold out of fear of societal collapse such as accumulating 1/10 or 1/4 ounce coins because it is expected to replace a failed fiat currency.

Tangible assets like bullets, land, water source, egg laying chickens, hundreds of pounds of corn feed, etc. are a lot more valuable. Also off-grid or homesteading skills are valuable.

.

NuttBoxer says

"GOOD FOR THE GOOSE? The World Gold Council reported that in 2022’s third quarter central banks bought 399 tonnes of gold, almost double the previous record. Can somebody please explain to me — in the teeth of conventional financial advice — why buying gold is good for central banks but not for individuals? Or why they are buying so much right now? If gold is good for the Money Masters, wouldn’t it be good for me, too? You don’t reckon these experts would mislead us, do you?"

- Franklin Sanders

China is buying gold because the US has proven that it is totally unreliable. We blocked Russia's access to its Reserve Holdings and then went around confiscating Russian oligarchs' mansions and yachts. These foreigners incorrectly thought that the West was nations of laws. We proved to be every bit as lawless as a third world banana republic. China doesn't want its reserves to be under the same threat.

It makes sense for foreign central banks to buy gold given the lawlessness of the US. However, for US citizens it makes no sense as the government can and probably will outlaw ownership of gold and silver. The IRS will simply put out bounties for those who report the holders (felons).

Misc says

probably will outlaw ownership of gold and silver

That has to be when all hell breaks loose and the USA is a one party state and left wing authoritarian government.

I wonder if banning silver and gold would be a concern considering what else would take place :-/

.

FDR stole peoples' gold back in the 30s. Nothing ever came of it.

Private ownership of gold was illegal until 1974 when Ford reinstated the "right" for private citizens to own it legally.

I'll just leave this here. Not as high as early in the plandemic, but certainly better than bitcoin:

My friend in Santa Cruz has thousands of dollars worth of silver coins he paid $45/ounce he would like to sell to you.

clambo says

worth of silver coins he paid $45/ounce he would like to sell to you.

Going rate is around $30 per ounce physical coins.

Is he selling or holding?

Dollar index (DXY) is reliably inverse to gold and silver. With DXY going down, then gold and silver should go up.

DXY appears to be finally cooling off.

.

My friend is holding his silver coins.
I was just kidding about him selling.

clambo says

My friend in Santa Cruz has thousands of dollars worth of silver coins he paid $45/ounce he would like to sell to you.

This is off-topic. I'm talking about GOLD.

Just as a re-explanation, there used to be a forum called iTulip that @Patrick linked to in his site way back in the day. There was one poster, who went by the username of "Malcom" and whose avatar was the main character from "A Clockwork Orange." Over the ten or so years of iTulip's existence from 2007-2021, he would update the thread there of similar title as here.

I miss iTulip, and thanks @Patrick for exposing me to it way back in the 'naughties.

@Malcolm Are you still out there?

WookieMan says

I don't know, isn't the dollar basically gold anyway?

No it's not.

A company called the Federal Reserve has the ability to created as much "money" as they want and to buy anything they please. Their books are opaque.

If they, for example, want to make the stock of a company like, for example, Facebook go to the moon, they just buy stock. They can subsidize a company to bankrupt another, they can buy as much farmland as they please. They'll do this through agents of course, it won't be able to be tracked back to them. They can buy some worthless real estate for a 10,000,000 dollars and provide funds, or they can buy "artwork" from Hunter Biden, whatever.

This deprecates the dollar of course, but they hardly care about that.

They got to this position by promising that they would just hold gold, and deliver certificates for the gold they held. They produced more dollars than they actually had gold. They were created in 1913, and by 1933 they were caught. Instead of having them all hanged for counterfeiting, which used to be an offense where people caught doing it were executed, they just bribed the right people, and nothing happened other than to confiscate American's gold, who did not wrong. The dollar was revalued and remained convertible for FOREIGNERS but not Americans until 1971, because (again), the Federal Reserve continued to counterfeit money.

"As good as gold" referred to the US dollar when it was convertible, it's a MARKETING slogan. It was, up until 1971, better to own dollars than gold, because you made interest on dollars.

The Federal Reserve is just a criminal organization, and really, the US dollar is worthless. It only retains value as long as people PERCEIVE it has value. More and more of it is constantly being created, and there's no limit to how much can be created, or what rate it is created.

WookieMan says

They will take my dollars and pay the exchange rate on the back end happily for tipping. Same with the Dominican. Same with Jamaica. Aruba. Cayman. Bahamas. Belize.

Aruba, Jamaica, ooh I wanna take ya, Bermuda, Bahama, come on pretty mama, Key Largo, Montego, Baby why don't we go?

Patrick says

Malcolm Are you still out there?

I really liked him - he was ApocalypseFuck with a European sense of propriety.

richwicks says

I don't know, isn't the dollar basically gold anyway?

Chiming in with @richwicks.

After Nixon closed the gold convertibility window in the early '70's, the USD went through massive inflation, until the USA made an agreement with Saudi Arabia to buttress the USD by requiring that all transactions for oil MUST be paid for in dollars. Thus, the petrodollar was created. This served the USA just fine until 2008 or so.

The petrodollar system depends on the USA buying Saudi oil and the Saudis in turn buying Us Treasury bonds. THIS is why the USA supports the Saudis unequivocally - the Saudis are the anchor to the petrodollar system.

TL/DR: the dollar is now the petrodollar, and is based on oil, not gold.

Most people's debts are in dollars.

Dollars are therefore valuable. If you don't believe me just send me all of your worthless dollars.