patrick.net

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/rogue-manholes-wednesday-january

Things aren’t going so well down at the central planning office. The Wall Street Journal ran a long-form, magazine-style story yesterday headlined, “China Is Pressing Women to Have More Babies. Many Are Saying No.” The sub-headline explained, “The population, now around 1.4 billion, is likely to drop to around half a billion by 2100—and women are being blamed.”

Women blamed? How about blaming the central planners?

The Journal included a handy chart showing that modern communists have been even more successful at decimating China’s population than was Chairman Mao in his wildest, most murderous, rice-wine-induced excesses of the Great Famine:




I’m old enough to remember both when China first imposed its draconian ‘one-child’ policy in 1980 and also when it lifted the policy thirty-five years later in 2015. Now, almost nine years later, apparently the country’s population is for all purposes stuck in irreversible decline. Chinese communists did too good a job of portraying childbearing as patriarchal oppression of empowered womanhood, and now many Chinese women are just over it:

When Beijing said it would abolish the one-child policy in 2015, officials expected a baby boom. Instead, they got a baby bust. (Chinese) women are increasingly reluctant to marry and have children, accelerating the population decline.
“Having had one child, I think I’ve done my duty,” Feng said. A second child, she said, would be too expensive. She said she tells relatives, “I can have another kid as long as you give me 300,000 yuan,” or around $41,000.
Molly Chen, 28 years old, said the demands of caring for aging relatives and her job as an exhibition designer in Shenzhen leave no room for kids or a husband. All she wants to do in her free moments is read or scroll through pet videos.

The Chinese communists used coercion to enforce childlessness, and they may have overshot the mark a little. Now they are faced with the unpleasant prospect of coercing women to bear children, which is much harder than stopping them in the first place. (In America, we don’t use coercion, we deploy bizarre CIA mind-games like confusing kids about their genders and offering them free, irreversible sterilization surgeries to help their identities conform to biological reality, or the other way around. Whichever.)

One surprising outcome of the baby bust was that China cracked down on abortions and even contraception...

In spite of all this, nobody has cared invoke the awful specter of The Handmaid’s Tale yet against President Xi. But as this story suggests, a dystopian Handmaid’s Tale society is much more likely to arise in a communist hellhole like China than in a free democracy. The ‘one-child’ policy was originally promoted by Chinese communists as ending patriarchal and discriminatory treatment of women under historic Confucianism. Now, the communist party and President Xi are stressing Confucian values like familial duties.

Don’t have babies! Wait, do have babies. I’ve said it before: if it weren’t for double standards, communists would have no standards at all.

If there’s a better illustration of the perils of central planning than China’s horrible population implosion problem, I don’t know what it could be. Ironically, women vote for marxist policies in the greatest numbers, but women always suffer the worst whenever marxists hold power. According to the articles, China’s Politburo includes no women in its top ranks.

China’s population demographic problems run deep. Optimistically, these problems may temper the country’s more aggressive military ambitions. In any event, the failure of one-child is another black eye for the Left.

Overall, 2024 is starting out very well for sane conservatism.

I love how ppl think demographic decline can be just fixed by having more babies starting now.

It's like they think babies are instant additions to the workforce right out of the womb or something.

UkraineIsFucked says

It's like they think babies are instant additions to the workforce right out of the womb or something.

That may be true in China.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xd6Shxz9UUs

Obviously a lower population growth means lesser demand for housing in the future relative to the housing supply.

I have read about new ways to care for the aging which uses technology and new innovative ways for the elderly to live in assisted living. This is required since there will be less supply of workers for assisted living and nursing homes.

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ad says

I have read about new ways to care for the aging which uses technology and new innovative ways for the elderly to live in assisted living. This is required since there will be less supply of workers for assisted living and nursing

I have a family member who works in assisted living. No such tech is implemented, believe me.

UkraineIsFucked says

I have a family member who works in assisted living. No such tech is implemented, believe me.

One local assisted living uses smart watches and GPS tracking devices. I think they have ability to detect falls also with the available technologies.

They have Wyze cameras in every living space and common space.

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ad says

UkraineIsFucked says

I have a family member who works in assisted living. No such tech is implemented, believe me.

One local assisted living uses smart watches and GPS tracking devices. I think they have ability to detect falls also with the available technologies.

They have Wyze cameras in every living space and common space.

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Heavy usage of sedatives is a common high-tech solution.

https://supersally.substack.com/p/after-dropping-850000-in-2022-chinas

https://slaynews.com/news/japan-population-meltdown-two-people-dying-every-one-born/

Japan in Population Meltdown as Two People Now Dying for Every One Born

New data from the Japanese government shows that Japan’s population is continuing to spiral into an unsustainable meltdown.

Japan’s birth data for 2023 has just been published by the government and it shows the shocking crisis of the nation’s falling population appears to be accelerating.

The imposition of the death jab sure didn't help Japan's demographic crisis.

Patrick says

https://supersally.substack.com/p/after-dropping-850000-in-2022-chinas

There's no one to fuck... In a 2nd world country men die first. Women will migrate to fuck. China is screwed. Apple is screwed. Anyone with a business there or association is screwed.

Trump put the wheels in motion. Biden somehow still did good things with the fallout. If we get Trump 2.0 I think China is toast. I think everything is coming back. Covid was a massive fuck up even if we were involved. We're decoupling. Mexico is where it's at. We basically have legalized drugs. So the cartel has lost a ton of money so they sell avocados... Either way, China is a shit show. Takes weeks to get anything out of there. Your cheap Chinese shit is going to stop coming and it might be sooner than you think.

WookieMan says

Trump put the wheels in motion.

No. The ChiComs did with their one child policy.

WookieMan says

Your cheap Chinese shit is going to stop coming and it might be sooner than you think.

Yeah, because there will no longer be workers in Chinese factories.

No more polysilicon. No more rare earth refining. No more lithium batts and other EV/RE shit. No more low end computer chips (Internet of Things RIP).

Oh, and no more Apple products. Dunno why, but the dumfucks on Apple's board never figured out what the rest of the world has about China.

UkraineIsFucked says

No more low end computer chips (Internet of Things RIP).

I don't see how low end computer chips will ever go away. They are used in everything. Your TV has one, any device that connects to your TV has one, your phone, your car, anything that is electronic.

We'll have SOCs soon enough that cost $5 that will be perfectly usable as a main computer. We're surprisingly close to that now. Maybe $10, the dollar is eroding.

Chips are almost entirely manufactured in an automated process as well. That's why quality control is so high, and why they are so cheap. You run the factory 24 hours a day. There's just maintenance.

richwicks says

I don't see how low end computer chips will ever go away.

It is simple: most of them is manufactured by China, Inc. And China Inc. Is going away.

UkraineIsFucked says

richwicks says

I don't see how low end computer chips will ever go away.

It is simple: most of them is manufactured by China, Inc. And China Inc. Is going away.

They are manufactured everywhere. TSMC is Taiwan, but Global Founderies, they are in NY and Malta. It's a question only of maintenance of the machines. You can build a plant anywhere.

IF China were to forcibly take over Taiwan (and they won't - the whole reason that the US is screaming about this being a possibility is that the US is SO FUCKING CORRUPT and embedded with the "Democratic Progressive Party" of Taiwan, that the Chinese Nationalist Party (reunification party) is going to win in time, and they want to reunify), that would be a small blip, but it would recover.

There are the two major semiconductor plants in the world, GF and TSMC. It doesn't matter where you make it, doesn't even change the cost of the product. I mean NO OFFENSE with this, but people who work at semiconductor plants, anybody can do it, they are like a janitor and are 100% replaceable. The plants are very automated. The PLANTS are tremendously expensive. We shouldn't have offshore plants at all at this point. There is no economic advantage.

You can use a mid-tier computer chip from 2000 as your main computer chip today, honestly. It would be hot, it would waste energy, but it would be fine for you to use, but it would be more expensive to run and not suitable as a device to run on a battery. Just a standard computer. All we REALLY have today is smaller gates (that correlates to lower power consumption, and higher speed), more memory (this allows shittier coding, which reduced non-recoverable engineering cost), and bigger cache (this is higher speed).

There is nothing I can do today I couldn't do 20 years ago, it's just faster. I used to watch films on my computer in 2000. I didn't have some amazing system them, I had a standard system, but DVD's were dead to me then.

I used to use Skype back then, I think in the early 2000's, when "long distance" still existed.

All this bullshit and components and crap, those are gone. Your phone can replace them all, even if you bought your phone at 7/11.

richwicks says

They are manufactured everywhere.

Wolfspeed recently opened a semiconductor plant in New York. There is a lot of chip and electronics manufacturing just south of Phoenix.

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Women don't leave when they have the power and the situation is semi-decent; in China men outnumber women. The CCP is doing the opposite of woke, promoting manliness and valor and masculinity on TV by decree to encourage men.

China restricts airtime channels and internet media is allowed for "Sissy Men" like Korean Boy Bands.
https://globalnews.ca/news/8164763/china-ban-sissy-men-effeminate/

While promoting it in Hollywood by making sure movies they invest in have lots of weak men.

Ukrainian women aren't coming back, they're not leaving their well off Finnish and German new boyfriends with money to go back to Roman who will be broke and driving a grain truck for chump change after the war - and his far far far lower standard of living. Their kids, if any, (Ukraine's birth rate was toilet before the war) are already with them.

AD says

richwicks says

They are manufactured everywhere.

Wolfspeed recently opened a semiconductor plant in New York. There is a lot of chip and electronics manufacturing just south of Phoenix.

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We are hitting the point of "oh, a faster smaller chip? Who cares, mine is fast enough". We don't need the latest and greatest fab now, a copy of one from 5 years ago is completely fine.

There were huge leaps from 1980 to 1990 and a smaller one between 1990 and 2000, and a significant one (more memory cache) from 2000 to 2010, but since then... Sure, the computers today are better, maybe a LITTLE faster, but it's nothing like it was between 1980 and 1990. It's going to continue to be like this. I wouldn't say there's been a significant change in what is possible since 2005. You might disagree because you are buying a computer that cripples itself purposely with "upgrades" to force you to buy a new computer - that's all it is now.

You can buy a 1 TB SD Card now. You have any idea how big that is? If you have a personal movie theater, that can store a week or two of films for you to watch that is 100% suitable to show in a full theater. Oh, and by a week or two, I mean playing 24 hours a day for 1 or 2 weeks, not just when you want to watch a film - if it were that, it would be months. What's available to a specialized location to show films, you can easily afford. This setup would be maybe $2000 - $3000 dollars. If you want a true theater, more because of the projector size and even that you can do away with, using multiple consumer grade projectors. Maybe 20 to 100 grand, depending.

Film theaters in the future will be for the experience with being part of an audience, it won't be to see the latest flick.

I'm giving you this example to demonstrate the gravity of where we are. What was out of reach for the common man, no longer is. Today, any person can have as many books available to them that make the Library of Alexandria look trivial. YOU can run a television station or HBO or whatever. Getting the content legally is all you need to contend with.

You know how big the largest collection of PlayStation 1 games is?

534,633,808 bytes, about 510 gibabytes. That fits on a single device, that's 2001 games, and a portion of them are varying revisions and in reality the same game. You can carry the entire library of the entire system from 1994 in a device you can lose between your couch cushions. Every single game ever sold, fits on a device smaller and lighter than your thumbnail.

https://www.amazon.com/SanDisk-microSDXC-Card-Licensed-Nintendo-Switch-SDSQXAO-1T00-GN6ZN/dp/B0C2B8CCR1?ref=ast_sto_dp

People have no understanding of where the average person is, or even the below average person is.

richwicks says

People have no understanding of where the average person is, or even the below average person is.

I remind my wife of this periodically. If you're 1-sigma smart then 84% of all people are dumber than you. These are the people who work all around you - just think about it: 8 out of ten people you meet are dumber than you. They can't understand many of the rational arguments you make, because they are incapable of rational thought. People like this have the residual knowledge of their bodies - for men, it's skilled hands, for women, it's childrearing.

Now imagine if you're 2- or 3-sigman smart. The rest of the human race must resemble an odd zoo of human-appearance animals.

stereotomy says

richwicks says

People have no understanding of where the average person is, or even the below average person is.

I remind my wife of this periodically. If you're 1-sigma smart then 84% of all people are dumber than you. These are the people who work all around you - just think about it: 8 out of ten people you meet are dumber than you. They can't understand many of the rational arguments you make, because they are incapable of rational thought. People like this have the residual knowledge of their bodies - for men, it's skilled hands, for women, it's childrearing.

Now imagine if you're 2- or 3-sigman smart. The rest of the human race must resemble an odd zoo of human-appearance animals.

It is very difficult to measure intelligence, and even if you are measured as very intelligent you can still make very bad choices, i.e. support policies and politics that eventually destroy you and your culture. Wisdom and street smarts are different qualities than intelligence or intellect.

mell says

It is very difficult to measure intelligence, and even if you are measured as very intelligent you can still make very bad choices, i.e. support policies and politics that eventually destroy you and your culture. Wisdom and street smarts are different qualities than intelligence or intellect.

I agree, although it's heavily dependent on the situation. Intelligence is like any other asset - if you can't effectively use it to improve your life, then it's no good to you. It served me well when the scandemic unfolded. Thanks to my (and @Rin's info - he deserves special honor) diligence, my family is spike-protein free.

In other areas, perhaps so much - it's really a question of motivation. Really smart people need to be driven; if not, they can coast along with the rest of the mediocrities.

richwicks says

Film theaters in the future will be for the experience with being part of an audience, it won't be to see the latest flick.

Yep, as I was thinking you sit in a "theater" seat and its like a virtual reality experience like a virtual Disney experience or ride. Or it could be a combination of this and an Escape Room activity.

I agree as far as technology getting cheaper and as far as Moore's Law.

What the next "shiny new object" ? Back in the mid 1990s was desktop computers and internet.

Is it going to be "AI" where you have a robot as a personal assistant in your home ?

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https://www.midwesterndoctor.com/p/the-immense-cruelty-of-population

•There has been a longstanding fixation within the ruling elite that it is absolutely imperative for them to control the world’s population.

•In many cases, this has resulted in cruel and inhumane campaigns being enacted around the world in areas where the people did not have the civil rights protections afforded to them within the Western Democracies.

•Some of the most disturbing campaigns occurred within China, where due to the One Child Policy, parents were forced to only have one child, even if this meant forced abortions, sterilizations or infanticide.

•It is critical to learn what happened there, both so that we do not allow the global elite to enact similar measures here and so that we can recognize why it is imperative to have a culture which sincerely values morality as that ethical framework is often the only thing which can stop these disasters from happening.

I think it's likely that the death jab campaign is yet another population control crime by the elite, who must be hanged for mandating that injection.

The problem of the Tavistock Fabian Eugenicists is to accomplish the murder of as much of the population as possible without backlash. That's why they are doing so much surreptitious poisoning (food, air, water, diseases real or fake with fake toxines) or programmed starvation (Holodomor) under color of whatever virtue signaling Satanic Reversal bullshit or delusion they try to foist.

The various dracos and droolbuckets and Jesuits rankle that the population is not COMPLETELY OBEDIENT WITHOUT QUESTION.

They want survivors that are bred for labor, but obedient, and can be killed, harvested or prompted to kill themselves on cue. Enter Borg transhumanism. Fifteen minute cities are clusters that can each be strangled with a single neck, or devastated with DEWs etc. Put a fifteen minute city near a factory. When the factory is obsolete or its purpose is done, destroy the fifteen minute city and its inhabitants if they can't be moved somewhere else for labor.

original link

Patrick says

https://slaynews.com/news/japan-population-meltdown-two-people-dying-every-one-born/

Japan in Population Meltdown as Two People Now Dying for Every One Born

New data from the Japanese government shows that Japan’s population is continuing to spiral into an unsustainable meltdown.

Japan’s birth data for 2023 has just been published by the government and it shows the shocking crisis of the nation’s falling population appears to be accelerating.

The imposition of the death jab sure didn't help Japan's demographic crisis.

I understand that Japan is so fucking crowded that the population could decline for decades before anyone would even notice.

zzyzzx says

I understand that Japan is so fucking crowded that the population could decline for decades before anyone would even notice.

This. It is not a "demographic crisis" because the population stabilizes or even shrinks a little. The US was fine with a population of 200 million and would still be fine if we had a slow decline to that level again over the next few decades.

zzyzzx says

understand that Japan is so fucking crowded that the population could decline for decades before anyone would even notice.

In the big cities, yes. They are actually increasing a bit in population as the few youth Japan produces flee there as the Villages and towns die off.

The problem is not a smaller population, but when the population reduces while the old are spending more than the younger generations, if any, can pay in. The way we kick down growing debt onto younger generations is a ponzi scheme.

The other problem with a declining population - and the REAL reason the top .01% are trying to import immigrants like mad into Europe and North America - is that there won't be enough buyers of used housing, and rents will decline substantially.

However, the housing price decline is what enables the natural rebound as it becomes cheaper to live and support a larger family.

The next 10 years is going to be fascinating between boomers leaving their homes due to death/health, Millennials not wanting or needing such large properties, and the general lack of wealth in younger generations due to debt spending and wage supression.

AmericanKulak says

Millennials not wanting or needing such large properties

Mini-mansions will be converted into multi-family apartments.

HeadSet says

Mini-mansions will be converted into multi-family apartments.

Over time; the living dwellers of mini-mansions will not want their neighboring property converted to a multi-family.

"I didn't spend $700k to live next to an apartment building! We don't want those people coming through the gates! Stay out of our tennis court and clubhouse! The school district needs to keep out the riff--- uh, I subscribe to PBS! We control the zoning board!"

Now the kids will be like "How can I monetize McMansion dad left me?" So I agree it will happen, but it'll be a rocky road with fits and starts.

AmericanKulak says

Now the kids will be like "How can I monetize McMansion dad left me?

And "How the devil am I going to pay those real estate taxes, HOA fees, and lawn service?" Also maybe "How do I get rid of the squatters?"

HeadSet says

And "How the devil am I going to pay those real estate taxes, HOA fees, and lawn service?" Also maybe "How do I get rid of the squatters?"

So much fun is coming.

The HOAs and Condo Assocs having to double monthlies in order to build reserves to handle structural issues is not helping Condos sell in Port Saint Joe and Naples with 7% 30-year loans on top.

I think I posted the association that was talking about bank loans, loans against 401ksm etc to pay $10k now in lieu of $300 monthly assessments extra for the next 3 years.

Here is everything you need to know about population decline :

It would drive wages up.

That's it.

The fact that this would only result in a temporary decline in corporate profits (eventually prices would be increased to support increased wages) just goes to show you how absolutely evil these corporate motherfuckers are. They will turn this nation into a third world shithole just to maintain their performance based compensation on a quarterly basis.

God damn right Japan can have a shrinking population and manage just fine - except the conglomerates might take a hit to EPS for a dozen quarters.

God damn right the U.S. would be a better country right now if our population was 240 million.

I'm getting tired of being polite.

AmericanKulak says

HeadSet says

And "How the devil am I going to pay those real estate taxes, HOA fees, and lawn service?" Also maybe "How do I get rid of the squatters?"

So much fun is coming.

The HOAs and Condo Assocs having to double monthlies in order to build reserves to handle structural issues is not helping Condos sell in Port Saint Joe and Naples with 7% 30-year loans on top.

I think I posted the association that was talking about bank loans, loans against 401ksm etc to pay $10k now in lieu of $300 monthly assessments extra for the next 3 years.

On the upside they're canning the climate change committees left and right at the HOAs, we ain't got no money for this shit!

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Best way is to move more people near cold area where there is little to no sun. Natural selection will make ppl white so body can get solar to make vitamin D.

stfu says

The fact that this would only result in a temporary decline in corporate profits (eventually prices would be increased to support increased wages) just goes to show you how absolutely evil these corporate motherfuckers are. They will turn this nation into a third world shithole just to maintain their performance based compensation on a quarterly basis.

God damn right Japan can have a shrinking population and manage just fine - except the conglomerates might take a hit to EPS for a dozen quarters.

God damn right the U.S. would be a better country right now if our population was 240 million.

Preach.

Population Booms keep Wages low and rents high.

So what if we only have 1.75 kids per woman for a few generations? Will only make housing cheaper (but generally older) and wages "sticky upwards".