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5
richwicks
2022 Sep 19, 2:22pm
richwicks
2022 Sep 19, 2:22pm
jykiodfgr says
There's already 7nm chips.
Size reduction has more to do with cost reduction than it does with higher performance at this point.
We're nearing the limit of size right now, we probably (?) can't get to 3.5 nm, but if we could, that would quadruple the number of chips you can fit on a wafer. Makes it roughly 1/4 the cost - less than that because of the non recoverable engineering cost (NRE) but it will be cheaper.
It's so weird today, you can get a super computer today built for a couple of dollars, at least what was a Cray Supercomputer in 1985.
Unless you're in this industry, and are OLD, you have no concept of how much power you have today. None. My phone is more powerful than all the mainframes my university of 30,000 students shared to do their work. My PHONE can do all that work just 30 years ago. All of it. Spice simulations, email, MUD, whatever - it can do it all, no problem. $250. My phone can replace millions of dollars of equipment from 1990.
5 years ahead of schedule thanks to sanctions.
There's already 7nm chips.
Size reduction has more to do with cost reduction than it does with higher performance at this point.
We're nearing the limit of size right now, we probably (?) can't get to 3.5 nm, but if we could, that would quadruple the number of chips you can fit on a wafer. Makes it roughly 1/4 the cost - less than that because of the non recoverable engineering cost (NRE) but it will be cheaper.
It's so weird today, you can get a super computer today built for a couple of dollars, at least what was a Cray Supercomputer in 1985.
Unless you're in this industry, and are OLD, you have no concept of how much power you have today. None. My phone is more powerful than all the mainframes my university of 30,000 students shared to do their work. My PHONE can do all that work just 30 years ago. All of it. Spice simulations, email, MUD, whatever - it can do it all, no problem. $250. My phone can replace millions of dollars of equipment from 1990.
6
Shaman
2022 Sep 20, 8:28am
Shaman
2022 Sep 20, 8:28am
If the jab works as suspected, and hundreds of millions of Americans die, China could easily seize control of the world. If we have barely 100 million citizens left, we can’t field much of a military and our existing military will be mostly jabbed to death. We will be as open as the legs on a Bangladeshi prostitute.
China didn’t use mRNA jabs. They will retain over a billion people who do whatever they’re told to do.
China didn’t use mRNA jabs. They will retain over a billion people who do whatever they’re told to do.
8
socal2
2022 Sep 20, 8:40am
China’s Chip Industry Is Doomed
"Every wafer fabrication plant in the world uses equipment from one of those three companies. Applied Materials and LAM Research (along with Tokyo Electron) have their fingers in almost all areas of chipmaking equipment (PVD, CVD, Etch, etc.), while KLA (formerly KLA-Tencor) dominates the wafer inspection equipment segment. Add ASML in the Netherlands, and those five absolutely dominate the semiconductor equipment market....
This is where things get tricky. SMIC claims they can do 7nm, but everyone outside China doubts they can do it reliably, repeatably and profitably. SMIC announced they’re about to start manufacturing 14nm, and that they can probably do. Practically, they’re the only semiconductor manufacturer in China that can do sub-14nm, as just about everyone at the top of the next biggest semiconductor manufacturer, Tsinghua Unigroup, just got arrested in July.
There’s even talk that they’re going to ban sales of older chipmaking equipment as well, and that they’re actually zeroing in on FinFET technology specifically.
Without a continued stream of machines, spare parts and technical know-how from those five semiconductor giants, China’s semiconductor industry is doomed. China’s domestic semiconductor equipment industry is essentially garbage, and they’re so far behind in so many areas that they can’t even steal their way to parity. The knowledge gulf is just too vast."
https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=52684
"Every wafer fabrication plant in the world uses equipment from one of those three companies. Applied Materials and LAM Research (along with Tokyo Electron) have their fingers in almost all areas of chipmaking equipment (PVD, CVD, Etch, etc.), while KLA (formerly KLA-Tencor) dominates the wafer inspection equipment segment. Add ASML in the Netherlands, and those five absolutely dominate the semiconductor equipment market....
This is where things get tricky. SMIC claims they can do 7nm, but everyone outside China doubts they can do it reliably, repeatably and profitably. SMIC announced they’re about to start manufacturing 14nm, and that they can probably do. Practically, they’re the only semiconductor manufacturer in China that can do sub-14nm, as just about everyone at the top of the next biggest semiconductor manufacturer, Tsinghua Unigroup, just got arrested in July.
There’s even talk that they’re going to ban sales of older chipmaking equipment as well, and that they’re actually zeroing in on FinFET technology specifically.
Without a continued stream of machines, spare parts and technical know-how from those five semiconductor giants, China’s semiconductor industry is doomed. China’s domestic semiconductor equipment industry is essentially garbage, and they’re so far behind in so many areas that they can’t even steal their way to parity. The knowledge gulf is just too vast."
https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=52684
9
WookieMan
2022 Sep 20, 9:53am
WookieMan
2022 Sep 20, 9:53am
jykiodfgr says
For the US it's technically a net positive with covid. Less to pay unproductive people. Now if the vax is killing young people in noticeable amounts, that's bad. I'm no conspiracy theorist, but it would make sense to knock off all those obligations like SS and Medicare/aid or whatever it's called. Pensions as well for government and big business.
Besides some hipster spots, no one is building homes. People are just trading used homes from what I see. I'd guess 90% of new construction in suburban IL is all just 200 townhome rental type developments. 10% one off primary residence. Most people cannot afford to buy in metro areas. So they rent. If you can/could borrow at 3% interest rates and build 200 units, you should. Construction labor is the biggest factor though depending where you're at.
But with that said, there are also videos of the Chinese dropping dead so I'd expect at least a 10% reduction in Chinese population as well.
For the US it's technically a net positive with covid. Less to pay unproductive people. Now if the vax is killing young people in noticeable amounts, that's bad. I'm no conspiracy theorist, but it would make sense to knock off all those obligations like SS and Medicare/aid or whatever it's called. Pensions as well for government and big business.
Besides some hipster spots, no one is building homes. People are just trading used homes from what I see. I'd guess 90% of new construction in suburban IL is all just 200 townhome rental type developments. 10% one off primary residence. Most people cannot afford to buy in metro areas. So they rent. If you can/could borrow at 3% interest rates and build 200 units, you should. Construction labor is the biggest factor though depending where you're at.
10
Blue
2022 Sep 21, 10:23am
socal2 says
In either case, world is going from optimized to de-optimized model to counter recent geo-political moves to minimize supply constraints. But it comes with raise of production cost and risking over supply. Semiconductor manufacturing is a capital intensive business and lead is important to make profits like some of the industries otherwise it falls back on gov to offset losses to sustain. Have been seeing sales restrictions started from Trump time, it will only get more restrictions on imports and exports going forward at least for coming few years for sure.
China’s Chip Industry Is Doomed
In either case, world is going from optimized to de-optimized model to counter recent geo-political moves to minimize supply constraints. But it comes with raise of production cost and risking over supply. Semiconductor manufacturing is a capital intensive business and lead is important to make profits like some of the industries otherwise it falls back on gov to offset losses to sustain. Have been seeing sales restrictions started from Trump time, it will only get more restrictions on imports and exports going forward at least for coming few years for sure.
11
WookieMan
2022 Sep 23, 9:24am
WookieMan
2022 Sep 23, 9:24am
jykiodfgr - you cite (screenshot) the same source for everything. Makes one wonder...
Maybe look into different sources. All are corrupt, but some tell the truth occasionally.
Maybe look into different sources. All are corrupt, but some tell the truth occasionally.
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