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'Big Short' Michael Burry Says White-Collar Jobs Bubble Is 'Bursting


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2022 Oct 7, 9:57am   1,017 views  15 comments

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'Big Short' Says White-Collar Jobs Bubble Is 'Bursting': SPY Implications
Sep. 29, 2022 11:03 AM

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543813-big-short-says-white-collar-jobs-bubble-is-bursting-spy-implications

Famous investor Michael Burry recently declared that the white collar jobs bubble is bursting.

He implied that he believes this decline in white collar jobs will likely be long-lasting, if not permanent.

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1   AD   2022 Oct 7, 10:13am  

https://nypost.com/2022/10/04/facebook-to-purge-thousands-of-workers-in-quiet-layoffs/

Facebook executives are in the process of executing “quiet layoffs” of underperforming workers that could lead to thousands of employees getting pink slips, according to a report.

Several employees told the news site Insider that as much as 15% of the company’s workforce could be slashed within the next few weeks.

One employee told Insider that managers throughout the company were told to select at least 15% of their teams who are categorized as “needs support.”

Facebook employees took to the workplace app Blind, where they speculated that it was likely whoever was placed in the 15% category would be out of a job.

Eliminating 15% of Facebook’s workforce means that some 12,000 employees could be out of a job.
2   AD   2022 Oct 7, 10:15am  

U.S. White-Collar Remote Workers May Lose Their Jobs As Companies Hire Globally To Cut Costs

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2022/10/03/white-collar-remote-workers-may-lose-their-jobs-as-companies-hire-globally-to-cut-costs

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3   GNL   2022 Oct 7, 10:16am  

At some point, someone has to do actual work. Ya know, like physical work.
4   Ceffer   2022 Oct 7, 10:27am  

Pink slips for purple hairs? Sounds like karma.
5   AD   2022 Oct 7, 11:07am  

Ceffer says

Pink slips for purple hairs? Sounds like karma.


Facebook needs to cut costs. It has to translate to greater earnings while there is no growth in daily users.

.
6   Shaman   2022 Oct 7, 11:29am  

Meanwhile there’s a shortfall of some 10 million workers for blue collar jobs, and 3.5 million of those are for tradesmen.
Kids today are too mentally and physically weak to do those jobs so they skeeze on mom and dad instead.

My coworker has both his boys working in trades. The 25 year old is making $180k. The 22 year old is still an apprentice and making only $140k.
Sure beats raising a bunch of YouTube star wannabes!
7   Hircus   2022 Oct 7, 12:02pm  

Shaman says

My coworker has both his boys working in trades. The 25 year old is making $180k. The 22 year old is still an apprentice and making only $140k.

What trades / metros?
8   Hircus   2022 Oct 7, 12:29pm  

Being remote does make it easier for management to justify hiring a remote foreigner to replace them, but there's more to it than just "in office vs remote". My experience working with eastern foreign engineers is that even though they speak english, there still tends to be more parasitic communication drag vs with westerners.

I suspect I'll be laid off soon for staying remote, but I'm ok with it - I plan to take some time off and enjoy some of that unemployment money I've been paying into my whole life.
9   GNL   2022 Oct 7, 12:32pm  

Shaman says

Meanwhile there’s a shortfall of some 10 million workers for blue collar jobs, and 3.5 million of those are for tradesmen.
Kids today are too mentally and physically weak to do those jobs so they skeeze on mom and dad instead.

My coworker has both his boys working in trades. The 25 year old is making $180k. The 22 year old is still an apprentice and making only $140k.
Sure beats raising a bunch of YouTube star wannabes!

I call bullshit.
10   GNL   2022 Oct 7, 12:34pm  

Hircus says

Being remote does make it easier for management to justify hiring a remote foreigner to replace them, but there's more to it than just "in office vs remote". My experience working with eastern foreign engineers is that even though they speak english, there still tends to be more parasitic communication drag vs with westerners.

I suspect I'll be laid off soon for staying remote, but I'm ok with it - I plan to take some time off and enjoy some of that unemployment money I've been paying into my whole life.

What is your vocation?
11   GNL   2022 Oct 7, 1:25pm  

cisTits says

GNL says


I call bullshit.


Which part? This is true: Meanwhile there’s a shortfall of some 10 million workers for blue collar jobs, and 3.5 million of those are for tradesmen.

$180K and $140K.
12   Shaman   2022 Oct 7, 1:56pm  

One son is a union worker welding pipes for the LA tunnel project and the other works on cranes.
And yes there’s overtime. Most skilled tradesmen work overtime, and there are at least two reasons for this:
1) not enough skilled tradesmen, more work than men.
2) most are union, which means benefits like healthcare and often pension, so it’s cheaper for the company to hire fewer men and work them longer hours than fewer men for just straight time.

Even in right to work states like Texas, a skilled tradesman can do better than many white collars.

I was offered a management job two years ago in my industry, but the pay cut was too extreme. I can’t cut $100k off my yearly and also lose pension and my accumulated vacation (five weeks a year).
13   EBGuy   2022 Oct 7, 1:59pm  

cisTits says

Especially in states like California.

Agree with cT. For some perspective, nine county Ess Eff Bay Area has a population greater than 36 states. That's a lot of people in a small area and the trades are in demand...
14   AmericanKulak   2022 Oct 7, 2:04pm  

I saw some chubby old Economist a few years ago, talking about how retirement is optional and that people shouldn't expect to be retired. Literally claimed from his air conditioned office at the Think Tank that roofers can work into their 70s.

We're seeing the results of that expectation. Not only is it hard to do big physical labor past the age of 50 for most, it's often unnecessary if they saved at all and many have their own businesses with others doing most of the work at that point.

The problem is they never considered that eliminating trade schools after the 1970s would have an impact.

CA is short about 150k Nurses and it'll be worse in a decade. The snooty lib arts majors who avoided science and accounting courses like the plague haven't and won't do shit about it. Paying people to work on contract in CA for a few months won't work once people from other states experience the high prices, high costs, high taxes, and high crime and the stink to high heaven of the human feces. They'd realize the $10-15 extra/hr is a loss after any housing, board, and taxation.
15   EBGuy   2022 Oct 7, 2:13pm  

cisTits says

If I was twenty years younger I'd switch over next time I get laid off.

Friend was looking to transition to a job in the trades mid-life. He couldn't afford to do it due to apprenticeships and he had a family to support at the time. All that to say, massively unionized with barriers to entry in California makes for mucho dinero.

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