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It was 1984 that [Philip] Tetlock began Expert Political Judgment: convincing hundreds of political and economic pundits to provide regular probabilistic forecasts of world events, and tracking those forecasts for decades. Between 1984 and 2004, he collected some 30,000 forecasts from about 300 experts.
Unsurprisingly, this took a while to pay off—which is likely a major reason no one had done it before2—but we live in a world where it did.
By the early 2000s, enough of their forecasts had resolved to score pundits’ performance. The verdict was decisive—and, for experts, disastrous. The average expert didn’t outperform random guessing, and performed significantly worse than simple statistical heuristics such as “extrapolate the current trend” or “assume no change.” They failed even to measurably outperform educated laymen.
From a related post:
…“expertise” as we understand it is largely fake. Should you listen to epidemiologists or economists when it comes to COVID-19? Conventional wisdom says “trust the experts.” The lesson of Tetlock (and the Afghanistan War), is that while you certainly shouldn’t be getting all your information from your uncle’s Facebook Wall, there is no reason to start with a strong prior that people with medical degrees know more than any intelligent person who honestly looks at the available data.
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