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Not So Fast on Electric Cars - WSJ


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2022 Dec 26, 9:49am   52,959 views  779 comments

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Not So Fast on Electric Cars - WSJ

Allysia FinleyDec. 25, 2022 6:20 pm ET

Toyota’s CEO delivers a timely warning, and many states echo it.

Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda recently caused the climate lobby to blow a fuse by speaking a truth about battery electric vehicles that his fellow auto executives dare not. “Just like the fully autonomous cars that we were all supposed to be driving by now,” Mr. Toyoda said in Thailand, “I think BEVs are just going to take longer to become mainstream than the media would like us to believe.” He added that a “silent majority” in the auto industry share his view, “but they think it’s the trend, so they can’t speak out loudly.”
The Biden administration seems to believe that millions of Americans will rush out to buy electric vehicles if only the government throws enough subsidies at them. Last year’s infrastructure bill included $7.5 billion in grants for states to expand their charging networks. But it’s a problem when even the states are warning the administration that electric vehicles aren’t ready to go mainstream.

Maine notes in a plan submitted to the Federal Highway Administration this summer that “cold temperatures will remain a top challenge” for adoption, since “cold weather reduces EV range and increases charging times.” When temperatures drop to 5 degrees Fahrenheit, the cars achieve only 54% of their quoted range. A vehicle that’s supposed to be able to go 250 miles between charges will make it only 135 miles on average. At 32 degrees—a typical winter day in much of the country—a Tesla Model 3 that in ideal conditions can go 282 miles between charges will make it only 173 miles.
Imagine if the 100 million Americans who took to the road over the holidays were driving electric cars. How many would have been stranded as temperatures plunged? There wouldn’t be enough tow trucks—or emergency medics—for people freezing in their cars.
The Transportation Department is requiring states to build charging stations every 50 miles along interstate highways and within a mile of off-ramps to reduce the likelihood of these scenarios. But most state electrical grids aren’t built to handle this many charging stations and will thus require expensive upgrades. Illinois, for one, warns of “challenges related to sufficient electric grid capacity, particularly in rural areas of the state.”

Charging stations in rural areas with little traffic are also unlikely to be profitable and could become “stranded assets,” as many states warn. Wyoming says out-of-state traffic from non-Tesla electric vehicles would have to increase 100-fold to cover charger costs under the administration’s rules. Tesla has already scoped out premier charging locations for its proprietary network. Good luck to competitors.

New Mexico warns that “poor station maintenance can lead to stations being perpetually broken and unusable, particularly in rural or hard to access locations. If an EV charging station is built in an area without electrical capacity and infrastructure to support its use, it will be unusable until the appropriate upgrades are installed.”

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Arizona says “private businesses may build and operate a station if a grant pays for the first five years of operations and maintenance” but might abandon the project if it later proves unprofitable. Many other states echo this concern, noting that federal funds could result in stranded assets.

The administration aims to build 500,000 stations, but states will likely have to spend their own money to keep them running. Like other federal inducements, these grants may entice states to assume what could become huge financial liabilities.

Federal funds also come with many rules, including “buy America” procurement requirements, which demand that chargers consist of mostly U.S.-made components. New Jersey says these could “delay implementation by several years” since only a few manufacturers can currently meet them. New York also says it will be challenging to comply with the web of federal rules, including the National Environmental Policy Act, the Americans with Disabilities Act, the Uniform Relocation Assistance and Real Property Acquisition Policies Act of 1970, and a 1960 federal law that bars charging stations in rest areas.

Oh, and labor rules. The administration requires that electrical workers who install and maintain the stations be certified by the union-backed Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Training Program. New Mexico says much of the state lacks contractors that meet this mandate, which will reduce competition and increase costs.

Technical problems abound too. Virginia says fast-charging hardware “has a short track record” and is “prone to malfunctions.” Equipment “previously installed privately in Virginia has had a high failure rate shown in user comments and reports on social media,” and “even compatibility with credit card readers has been unexpectedly complicated.”

A study this spring led by University of California researchers found that more than a quarter of public direct-current fast-charging stations in the San Francisco Bay Area were unusable. Drivers will be playing roulette every time they head to a station. If all this weren’t disconcerting enough, Arizona warns cyber vulnerabilities could compromise customer financial transactions, charging infrastructure, electric vehicles and the grid.

Politicians and auto makers racing to eliminate the internal-combustion engine are bound to crash into technological, logistic and financial realities, as Mr. Toyoda warned. The casualties will be taxpayers, but the administration doesn’t seem to care.


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22   Hugh_Mongous   2023 Jan 7, 10:21pm  

rocketjoe79 says

Tesla was in the top ten of ALL cars sold in the USA in 2022. Can't be all bad.


They work as a niche product and do rightfully dominate their niche.
23   rocketjoe79   2023 Jan 8, 10:06am  

Hugh_Mongous says

rocketjoe79 says


Tesla was in the top ten of ALL cars sold in the USA in 2022. Can't be all bad.


They work as a niche product and do rightfully dominate their niche.

If Tesla continues their current growth rate, I predict the company will be #5 in 3 years. The Cybertruck, due to start making deliveries this year, has a 1.5 Million unit backlog, worth about $80 billion. I've been considering adding more Tesla Stock to my portfolio. I got "lucky" and made 5x the last time I cashed out. Paid for my Model Y.
24   Eman   2023 Jan 8, 10:34am  

Hugh_Mongous says

rocketjoe79 says


Tesla was in the top ten of ALL cars sold in the USA in 2022. Can't be all bad.


They work as a niche product and do rightfully dominate their niche.

I agree it’s a niche product. It’s not for everyone
25   WookieMan   2023 Jan 8, 2:26pm  

HeadSet says

WookieMan says


I can tow 14k with a Honda civic.

Even an F-150 or Chevy Silverado full sized pickup with the special towing package would have a hard time towing 14,000 lbs. My Pathfinder has a towing capacity of 6,000 lbs, and that is high for that class of vehicle, let alone for the much smaller Civic.

It's an over exaggeration on my end. It is possible with weight distribution hitches and substantially unsafe with a Civic. But it's doable. The energy needed to tow that amount over average distances, say 100-200 miles is not remotely possible with current tech with EV's. As I said a 14k trailer you're looking at 20-50 miles with an EV. It's pointless. It would take me 3 days to get to Nashville from Northern IL. 3 days back. I can do that is 6-7 hours now.

I'm looking at lithium golf cart batteries currently. While lighter, it's still a shit ton of weight. The physics don't work. Maybe the major auto companies lobby the fuck out of ICE vehicles. But EV's are decades away for people that tow stuff. 2050 best case is my estimate. And that's assuming much of the population dies off.

Ultimately you need coal, LGN or nukes to power a transportation network reliant on electric. They're pushing for solar and wind. Whatever....
26   Patrick   2023 Mar 27, 8:48pm  

https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/europe-abandons-all-electric-car


Europe Abandons All-Electric Car Mandate
Stupidity of "switch to electric" while killing power generation

Igor Chudov
1 hr ago

France24 and the Wall Street Journal (paywall-free link) report that the EU abandoned its much-ballyhooed transition to electric cars, which was supposed to culminate with a total ban on gasoline cars in 2035. ...

The transition was supposed to go on for 13 years after its announcement in 2022 but was abandoned only a year after its adoption. What happened?

Prodded by climate activists, the EU was pressured to ban fossil fuel vehicles and replace them with battery-powered vehicles. The problem is that such a transition is impossible:

Transitioning to electric passenger vehicles will increase electricity demand by 25%.

Transitioning to electric trucks will further raise electricity demand to a total of 40% increase.

EU is phasing out fossil fuel generation and replacing it with unreliable solar and wind generation - thus decreasing power availability instead of increasing it to meet greater demand.

As cars and especially trucks are charged at night, solar and wind power cannot contribute to charging.

Are electric cars more efficient?
Running a gasoline car involves:

Burning gas in the internal combustion engine and converting thermal energy to mechanical energy. That’s it.

Charging an electric car’s battery from the grid and driving the car involves:

Burning gas at the power station and converting thermal energy of gas to mechanical energy of the gas turbine. This is only moderately more efficient in a power station than gasoline cars.

Then, losses begin:

Converting the mechanical energy of the turbine into electrical energy in the generator involves generator losses

Converting medium voltage from the generator into high transmission voltage involves transformer losses

Transmitting the power along the high voltage lines involves transmission losses

Stepping down the voltage in several substations involves transformer losses again

In a home charging station, converting 220v power into DC for car charging again involves conversion losses

A chemical process in the battery being charged heats the battery, involving charging losses

Running the car’s electrical motors from the battery requires inverter losses to generate electricity for traction motors and motor losses.

Take a look at what happens when a driver needs heat in the cab:

Heating a gasoline car in winter involves redirecting waste heat (hot antifreeze) from the engine into the cab heater, thus not requiring additional fuel.

Heating an electric car requires a resistance heater or a heat pump, needing to eventually consume more energy from the grid - with all the above conversion losses included.

Which process (gasoline car vs. electric) is more efficient at converting fuel, burnt directly in the car engine or at distant power stations, into usable energy to propel a car traveling on a highway? The gas engines win outright. ...

The climate change field is full of crooks and is directed by those who recently gave us a non-working and dangerous Covid vaccine.

I do not believe them or their paid scientists any more than I believe the dishonest “Covid science.” ...
27   richwicks   2023 Mar 27, 8:55pm  

Patrick says


https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/europe-abandons-all-electric-car


Europe Abandons All-Electric Car Mandate
Stupidity of "switch to electric" while killing power generation

Igor Chudov
1 hr ago

France24 and the Wall Street Journal (paywall-free link) report that the EU abandoned its much-ballyhooed transition to electric cars, which was supposed to culminate with a total ban on gasoline cars in 2035. ...

The transition was supposed to go on for 13 years after its announcement in 2022 but was abandoned only a year after its adoption. What happened?

Prodded by climate activists, the EU was pressured to ban fossil fuel vehicles and replace them with battery-powered vehicles. The problem is that such a transition is impossible:

Transitioning to electric passenger vehicles will increase electricity d...



Hallelujah, they are finally seeing the light, although they've been covering their eyes for the last 10 years. Electric vehicles are a grift, a scam. Invest in a failed technology, pump it up through propaganda for years, sell, let the bagholders take a bath. Looks like it's bath time..
29   RWSGFY   2023 Mar 27, 10:45pm  

Patrick says

https://notthebee.com/article/one-tiny-little-detail-they-forgot-to-tell-you-about-those-electric-vehicles





That's why insurance for Model 3 is 2x of a similarly priced vehicle. At least it was for me when I priced it against a Jeep.
30   rocketjoe79   2023 Mar 28, 12:16pm  

It's 2x because there is still high demand for ALL Tesla Products.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-market-share-q1-2023-cox-automotive/
They made a price reduction recently to get M3 and MY below the Federal Rebate limit. Now is the time to buy. I've been saving about 2/3 of my gas costs using electric fuel. I'm in NorCal, and I pay the highest gas and electricity costs nationwide, I believe.
Also, I had a rear-ender and didn't have to replace my battery. It's the usual, nonsense hype. Also the hype about "You'll have to replace your battery and it'll cost you a fortune!!" is overblown.
https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last
31   HeadSet   2023 Mar 28, 2:36pm  

rocketjoe79 says

It's 2x because there is still high demand for ALL Tesla Products.

I can see why high demand would increase the price of the Tesla, but why would high demand double the insurance cost?
32   rocketjoe79   2023 Mar 28, 5:28pm  

HeadSet says

rocketjoe79 says


It's 2x because there is still high demand for ALL Tesla Products.

I can see why high demand would increase the price of the Tesla, but why would high demand double the insurance cost?

Insurance Companies have trouble evaluating Cost-of-repair for new tech vehicles. Also, you have very few Aftermarket parts available for Tesla. This is one of the reasons Tesla Insurance was started (along with making money, of course.) Tesla gets data on each collision, and they know the cost of repairs. This should drive down costs and allow them to make future vehicles safer, cheaper and quicker to repair.
35   Patrick   2023 Jul 5, 11:24am  




Could be fake, but funny anyway.
37   RWSGFY   2023 Jul 6, 8:43am  

Patrick says







Fat chance: if the popo didn't first witness the act of speeding and then didn't measure the speed using a certified device he can go and fly a kite, pound sand or fuck himself (his choice).

But Tesla will punish you for speeding by increasing your rate if you buy insurance from them.
38   HeadSet   2023 Jul 6, 8:46am  

Patrick says





More likely the car will not allow you to speed in the first place. But then again, tickets are a source of revenue.
39   HeadSet   2023 Jul 6, 8:48am  

RWSGFY says

Fat chance: if the popo didn't first witness the act of speeding and then didn't measure the speed using a certified device he can go and fly a kite, pound sand or fuck himself (his choice).

The precedence has already been set with red light cameras and speed cameras.
40   RWSGFY   2023 Jul 6, 9:43am  

HeadSet says

RWSGFY says


Fat chance: if the popo didn't first witness the act of speeding and then didn't measure the speed using a certified device he can go and fly a kite, pound sand or fuck himself (his choice).

The precedence has already been set with red light cameras and speed cameras.


Yes, it was: red light cameras have been deemed illegal and ordered to be removed in CA.
44   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2023 Jul 10, 9:05pm  

RWSGFY says

Patrick says








Fat chance: if the popo didn't first witness the act of speeding and then didn't measure the speed using a certified device he can go and fly a kite, pound sand or fuck himself (his choice).

But Tesla will punish you for speeding by increasing your rate if you buy insurance from them.


some places have license plate readers and cameras… auto tickets
45   HeadSet   2023 Jul 14, 1:07pm  

Patrick says





Well, i hear there are still 20,000 Model A Fords still on the road.
46   WookieMan   2023 Jul 14, 2:46pm  

HeadSet says

More likely the car will not allow you to speed in the first place. But then again, tickets are a source of revenue.

I don't think cops want to deal with people anymore honestly. A traffic stop is a pain in the ass for everyone. So I think they are enforcing less, at least around me. Plus why get in a situation over something minor and potentially have a gun pulled on you as a cop AND you shoot the perp and YOU go to jail.

This why I keep saying get out of cities. They don't want to patrol. I know 2 Chicago cops well. I think at 45 they can get their pension and work for another police department. They want out. Bad. Cities will become more lawless. No doubt.
48   HeadSet   2023 Jul 15, 9:01pm  

Booger says

Gas Car Cancellation Is Intended to End Private Transport

I called that long ago. Private cars will be for the very rich and the politicians as the rest of us will be on shared right style buses and vans. Also, I notice we do not hear much anymore about self-drive and aerial taxis.
49   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2023 Jul 15, 9:25pm  

HeadSet says

Patrick says






Well, i hear there are still 20,000 Model A Fords still on the road.


you can’t. government mandates a lot of it
50   Patrick   2023 Aug 14, 12:43pm  

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/indigenous-american-giving-monday/comment/22337511



tritorch
Writes Out Here On the Perimeter
7 hrs ago
Regarding E-Cars, here is why they want everyone in one:

Electric cars have kill switches and real time tracking of everything you do in them and they record everywhere you go. They can also be hijacked remotely by a lender or government, and programmed to keep you within your fifteen minute city.

Want to drive your car today? I'm sorry your social credit score isn't high enough, your carbon footprint has exceeded your daily limit, and your vaccination status is not up to date. Check back next week.
51   Eric Holder   2023 Aug 14, 12:56pm  

Patrick says

Electric cars have kill switches and real time tracking of everything you do in them and they record everywhere you go


No need for it to be electric for all that crap to be in it.
52   Eric Holder   2023 Aug 14, 1:00pm  

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

HeadSet says


Patrick says







Well, i hear there are still 20,000 Model A Fords still on the road.



you can’t. government mandates a lot of it


You can build a Model A from spare parts (all of which are readily avaiable) as an individual and register it as a kit car even in CA.
53   Patrick   2023 Aug 14, 1:01pm  

True. I've read that most new cars have GPS tracking whether you want it or not.

https://www.techwalla.com/articles/how-to-disable-the-gps-locator-in-a-car
54   Patrick   2023 Sep 6, 1:42pm  

https://notthebee.com/article/a-huge-percentage-of-electric-vehicle-owners-are-defecting-and-going-back-to-internal-combustion-cars


Is our honeymoon with the electric vehicle finally over? A study found that one in five early adopters of EV cars and trucks are returning to gas-powered vehicles. As a result, used EV prices are freefalling.

The Journal Nature published a study revealing that of the folks who were early adopters of EVs in California (between 2012 and 2018), 20% of [plug-in hybrid] drivers have returned to fully gas-powered vehicles and 18% of full EV drivers returned to gas-powered - with their subsequent vehicle purchase. ...

Dude got into a fender-bender in his Rivian. Insurance offered $1,600. The repair bill was $42,000.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I just feel like there's some stuff they're not telling us about these electric cars...


And just last weekend, my wife's cousin was saying how hard it was to use her EV to get from Los Gatos to Half Moon Bay, because there is a big hill in the way, and how expensive repairs are on it. Can't remember what car it was, not a Tesla.
55   richwicks   2023 Sep 6, 4:53pm  

Patrick says

As a result, used EV prices are freefalling.


Don't buy one!!!!

The battery pack has a limited lifespan, and that's like 1/2 the cost of the vehicle.

Patrick says

Dude got into a fender-bender in his Rivian. Insurance offered $1,600. The repair bill was $42,000.


If you get into a minor accident in an EV, you MAY have damaged the battery pack, and if you have, it's basically a bomb. Even minor accidents, for safety reasons, need the entire battery pack to be replaced.

EV's kind of remind me of thin clients. They try to bring that back every few years too. I think we're on the verge of abandoning all this Green Energy nonsense as people are starting to recognize that although PERHAPS IN THE FUTURE, it might be viable, we're not there yet.
56   HeadSet   2023 Sep 6, 6:15pm  

richwicks says

The battery pack has a limited lifespan

Interesting. There is a cab company in AZ that runs a fleet of 200 Prius cabs and has done so for more than 15 years. They put over 300,000 miles on them before removing them but have kept a few around for 10 years with much more mileage. The Prius is a hybrid, but the battery is still constantly charged and discharged. It seems the all electric car's battery would hold up as well.
57   richwicks   2023 Sep 6, 6:33pm  

HeadSet says


Interesting. There is a cab company in AZ that runs a fleet of 200 Prius cabs and has done so for more than 15 years. They put over 300,000 miles on them before removing them but have kept a few around for 10 years with much more mileage. The Prius is a hybrid, but the battery is still constantly charged and discharged. It seems the all electric car's battery would hold up as well.


It's not quite the same. A hybrid only activates the battery for acceleration and breaking.

Batteries have a limited lifespan because of dendrites. As you recharge a battery, you end up with little tendrils of metal from the cathode, when it touches the anode, the battery is dead, or at least that cell of the battery is dead. It's a short.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWsR44dmbBs

That does a pretty good explanation of it.

I have no idea how big the Prius battery is or if it's replaceable. 1/2 the cost of an EV is just the battery pack.
58   Ceffer   2023 Sep 6, 7:16pm  

Electric cars are the bomb. Doesn't everybody feel clean and green driving around in a remote controlled bomb?

All green measures are designed to fail. They are the Globalist Satanic Inversion Lie of sustainablity, they are the exact opposite. They don't want us sustained, they want us dead or enslaved to their crumbs.

Get rid of the shit that works, get corruptocrats to impose green measures, dismantle the infrastructure that could be relied upon, bake and wait for the desperate, helpless population.
59   richwicks   2023 Sep 7, 3:45am  

Ceffer says

All green measures are designed to fail.


NO, they aren't.

That's what is funded, frequently, but that's not exclusively it. If you have the money, you can live off grid quite comfortably. You will need space and either you will have to change your lifestyle a bit, or get some energy storage system that either had to be regularly replaced or is novel and expensive.

Solar energy is probably a good idea but not how it's implemented. Look at all the roofs we have that are just black and collecting heat. Cover them with panels.

Panels are much thinner than they were 15 years ago. They are practically paper thin, which greatly reduces the energy needed to produce them. I'm out of the field now, but I think it's possible to make it beneficial. If, for example, you could make them practically no cost, like the cost of paper, all of a sudden, production of hydrogen from water and electrolysis makes sense.

We have to reduce costs.
60   RWSGFY   2023 Sep 7, 7:38am  

The $42K bill is not surprising, but it's not exclusive to EVs either. A fender is not a fender anymore - it is packed with sensors and cameras. Same for bumpers and even taillights. And don't get me started on windshields: what used to be a $120 job to replace a cracked one is now a $1500 ordeal with a trip to the dealer to calibrate all the shit they now have in/behind it.
61   RWSGFY   2023 Sep 20, 12:58pm  

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has pushed back the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars in the UK from 2030 to 2035
Sunak says he still expects that by 2030 "the vast majority" of cars will be electric, because of improving technology
He also says there will be "far more time" to transition from gas boilers to heat pumps
--Beebs

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