patrick.net

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

The tax cuts were not for 'the rich' as the media falsely claims but for the middle class at the expense of said rich. Example, the rich's precious SALT deduction will be restored. The Treasury will lose hundreds of billions in revenue when that happens.

Then there are the Laffer Curve effects blown away from the reversion of the business tax code back to what it was.

Absolutely true.

Patrick says

Damn, if you could borrow at 2.1% and buy US Treasuries at 4.5%, you'd have a perpetual money machine.

Ding, ding, ding... our fearless leader points out the yen carry trade before it went south. Feels like old times. Wonder what other secrets are hiding in our financial systems...

Oh looky!

Democrats are suddenly concerned about the national debt!

"One quarter of the war budget would have fixed Social Security for the next seventy-five years."

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/the-2-trillion-war-44421/

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

Oh looky!

Democrats are suddenly concerned about the national debt!

... but "conservatives" suddenly don't mind neither $5K child credit nor $20 Federal min wage. And I suspect if their guy came up with the idea of POTUS not allowing potatos to get more expensive they would love it too. (They hate, HATE it now).

🤡 world.

RWSGFY says

but "conservatives" suddenly don't mind neither $5K child credit nor $20 Federal min wage. And I suspect if their guy came up with the idea of POTUS not allowing potatos to get more expensive they would love it too. (They hate, HATE it now).

🤡 world.

You forgot to include the word 'Soviet' in that bs.

Much of this debt is denominated in USD or currencies with reserves denominated in USD.

That is a LOT of future demand for USD. So I doubt the dollar is going to crash soon.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

RWSGFY says

but "conservatives" suddenly don't mind neither $5K child credit nor $20 Federal min wage. And I suspect if their guy came up with the idea of POTUS not allowing potatos to get more expensive they would love it too. (They hate, HATE it now).

🤡 world.

You forgot to include the word 'Soviet' in that bs.

Thanks, bud. Here you go: Soviet Union had price controls on everything (and empty shelves and long lines in every store) and paid assembly line type of workers 2x-7x more than it paid engeneers. And it was (and still is) a shithole as a result of these sound and conservative econ policies.

I bet if I presented it like "people who get sweaty turning wrenches and doing REAL WORK should be paid MOAR than the assholes whose job is to tap on a keyboard and drag a mouse around", I'd get many "conservatives" latch on that lure. 🤡

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

yes, and Harris said in a campaign stop in Pennsylvania she will support fracking

she thinks she is going to bamboozle enough independent voters

.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

As a parent, I don't want either. Lower the overall cost of living. We have the resources. A bit behind on manufacturing, but it's welfare at the core of it. I don't want money I didn't earn. No one should. Because it will expected in the future and never go away. No one will be motivated.

I don't care if it looks like she's copying JD. They're both wrong. Unless you're disabled, work. Or support someone that works. Government hand outs should make most men feel weak. Scary that it doesn't.

WookieMan says

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

As a parent, I don't want either. Lower the overall cost of living. We have the resources. A bit behind on manufacturing, but it's welfare at the core of it. I don't want money I didn't earn. No one should. Because it will expected in the future and never go away. No one will be motivated.

I don't care if it looks like she's copying JD. They're both wrong. Unless you're disabled, work. Or support someone that works. Government hand outs should make most men feel weak. Scary that it doesn't.

It's not a hand out if you're taxed too much to begin with, or taxed at all. To make this go away, come up with a flat tax of 15%-20% max for everyone, regardless of source of income. Otherwise it's valid as society will break down without kids wiping boomers asses

mell says

It's not a hand out if you're taxed too much to begin with, or taxed at all. To make this go away, come up with a flat tax of 15%-20% max for everyone, regardless of source of income. Otherwise it's valid as society will break down without kids wiping boomers asses

right now based on what my neighbors told me, their household our effective federal tax rate is around 20% including social security and medicare tax (for self employment)

so 80% remains ... let's call it 80 ...about 40% of that (32) is spent locally so the sales tax rate (6% Florida and 1% county) is applied

about 40% of their total gross income is spent on housing (mortgage, property tax, property insurance and HOA fee) and about 10% of that 40% goes to property tax

(100/100) x 20% + (32/100) x 7% + (40/100) x 10% = 20% + 2.24% +4% = 26.24%

about 26.24% of their gross income goes to federal taxes, state/county sales tax, and property tax

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mell says

Otherwise it's valid as society will break down without kids wiping boomers asses

Robots.

mell says

Otherwise it's valid as society will break down without kids wiping boomers asses

Robots. AD says

is around 20% including social security and medicare tax (for self employment)

They are part of the 50% that pretty much only pay FICA and either zero or little federal income taxes, then.

mell says

It's not a hand out if you're taxed too much to begin with, or taxed at all.

Are they promising a cash payment? Or a tax credit? You can't get a credit on your taxes unless you pay taxes.

Onvacation says

mell says

It's not a hand out if you're taxed too much to begin with, or taxed at all.

Are they promising a cash payment? Or a tax credit? You can't get a credit on your taxes unless you pay taxes.

Wanna bet ????

Plenty of welfare Hoes do exactly that.

Onvacation says

You can't get a credit on your taxes unless you pay taxes.

Yes, you can. The EIC can give you a refund when you do not pay taxes. It is a negative income tax.

HeadSet says

Onvacation says

You can't get a credit on your taxes unless you pay taxes.

Yes, you can. The EIC can give you a refund when you do not pay taxes. It is a negative income tax.

Same with child tax credits.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

mell says

Otherwise it's valid as society will break down without kids wiping boomers asses

Robots.

That is why I see more productivity gains with senior care. They'll use technology to double the number of seniors cared for by 1 nurses aid or LPN.

Also expect to see more work visas for nurses aids.

Senior care will be a growth industry.

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Ok, a quick answer as to why everybody's banks are suddenly all at once asking their customers to update their financial profiles.

You see our intrepid risk management professionals at the various banks have all of a sudden come to a startling conclusion. You know all that student loan debt that is not getting paid back. Well, there were no credit ramifications the last few years for withholding payments. These same bunch of Black and Hispanic debtors have run up their credit card bills. They have no intention (and never did) of repaying these loans.

Looks like the banks are gonna have to write off at least $200 billion in bad credit card debt. The wizards of Wall Street get to learn the lesson again that if a loan is bad, it doesn't matter what the interest rate you charge is. Of course, if long term rates don't plummet, the banks will have to realize those persnickety losses on their "Hold to Maturity bonds" because they will be forced to sell them to cover the losses on their credit card portfolios.

Yes Virginia...there will be another bank bailout.

AD says

Senior care will be a growth industry.

As will crematorium and mortician.

There should be no tax credits for anything, especially someone else's brats.
If you can't afford them, don't have them.

PeopleUnited says

AD says

Senior care will be a growth industry.

As will crematorium and mortician.

its like a big dead animal that a snake swallows and works its way through the front and to the end of the snake

follow that dead animal as it works through the snake as far as the economy trends based on demographics

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Misc says

Looks like the banks are gonna have to write off at least $200 billion in bad credit card debt.

AD says

Misc says

Looks like the banks are gonna have to write off at least $200 billion in bad credit card debt.

AD says

Misc says

Looks like the banks are gonna have to write off at least $200 billion in bad credit card debt.

They don't have to write off anything. People understand debt from the consumer standpoint. ALL of it including consumer debt doesn't need to be repaid. I can't reiterate this anymore. No one has to pay their debt. Collections are paid debt. Short sell your house. There's literally no reason to pay anything. Taxes and student loans aside. You don't have to pay anything. Blacks got this down decades ago. Are white people this dumb?

WookieMan says

No one has to pay their debt.

A buddy of mine has a personal loan from Silicon Valley loanshark SoFi Bank. He is looking to try to negotiate the debt with his dad who is a lawyer. He is hoping he can cut a deal with SoFi and walk away from not paying the balance based on what he paid off so far.

My family member negotiated with a credit card company and they lowered her rate to 2% as long as she did not use the card while she was paying off the balance. She got a reverse mortgage (at rate of Continuous Maturity Treasury + 1.25% margin rate + 0.5% FHA insurance rate) to pay off her credit card debt.

WookieMan says

AD says

Misc says

Looks like the banks are gonna have to write off at least $200 billion in bad credit card debt.

They don't have to write off anything. People understand debt from the consumer standpoint. ALL of it including consumer debt doesn't need to be repaid. I can't reiterate this anymore. No one has to pay their debt. Collections are paid debt. Short sell your house. There's literally no reason to pay anything. Taxes and student loans aside. You don't have to pay anything. Blacks got this down decades ago. Are white people this dumb?

Maybe they have a higher moral standard, not everybody thinks it's cool to default. It is certainly true that many people don't realize that they have plenty of room to negotiate down their debt, but if too many start doing this there will be a domino effect and you will see a severe financial crisis akin to 2008. Banks have definitely started to tighten although there are still plenty of CC offers. However you get more money now for opening a checking or savings account, or both, and great interest rates. Banks are anticipating a cash crunch and started competing for your money again instead of your debt. Chase gives you $900 just to open a checking and savings account and keep like 10 or 15k in it for 90 days.

mell says

Maybe they have a higher moral standard, not everybody thinks it's cool to default.

I don't do it. I'm just stating how it is. A debt collector paid your debt assuming you'd pay something. Your credit is already shit and the debt was paid by the debt collector. It's paid. Attorney's and debt collectors create fear to make money. It's water under the bridge. Debt collectors can't garnish wages. They have no recourse.

I get the domino effect. Maybe charge lower rates on CC's? Maybe there would be less defaults. I don't feel bad for a business charging 25% interest rates losing money. Fuck 'em. I pay on time, but an argument could be made they're cock suckers feeding off the financial unintelligence that is common in 80% of the population. Most of it is poor people and people of color. Should be a Dem policy but they're common retards.

Again, not promoting defaulting. Just saying it's not a big deal. My BIL killed himself over it. Helped about 100 homeowners short sell their homes 2007-2012. Don't get emotional. All are doing better than when they had bad debt. I think my personality speaks for itself here. I give zero fucks and know the ins and outs. You don't have to pay debt. Your house is protected and retirement account. Rack up some CC debt and take the credit hit. NEVER file BK. Dumbest move you could do and have been forced you have to do by the industry.

The_Deplorable says

While correct, much of debt doesn't have to be paid back. You also only live one life. Don't let money stress you out. If your sole focus is money you'll be miserable. A lot of times commit suicide. I wish more members of Congress would take that route....

We're in a unique position as a country where the debt really doesn't need to be paid. I get there's investments in bonds and treasuries domestically. Internationally, WTF are they gonna do? They need us more than we need them and we could glass them over in two hours. We're in the highest leverage position on the planet.

Interest on the debt is paid; today 33% of the interest payments goes to foreigners.
The problem with this is: the money we send overseas as interest payments is forever lost to the USA economy.
We can hope that the Eurotrash and other foreigners buy a lot of Apple products and we'll get some of this money back.
The huge USA debt is slowly making us poorer; it also affects the currency exchange rates.
Example: in 1973 I was in Switzerland and got 3 Swiss Francs for 1 US Dollar. Today, 1 Swiss Franc costs $1.16

WookieMan says

We're in a unique position as a country where the debt really doesn't need to be paid. I get there's investments in bonds and treasuries domestically. Internationally, WTF are they gonna do? They need us more than we need them and we could glass them over in two hours. We're in the highest leverage position on the planet.

Yup. And the majority of USTs they hold are reserves for loans they owe each other, not us or us owing them. $70 trillion to $140 trillion worth in eurodollar debt.

What's likely going to happen in any reset of US debt is that the USTs outstanding will get converted to 100 year zero or extremely low interest bonds. That way no real default occurs, the eurodollar banking system keep their reserves in USD denominated instruments on their balance sheets, no new dollars are created to monetize any of it and the USD isn't impacted much.

Same applies to US banks holding USTs as reserves -- which is all of them.

USD stable coins like Tether also would fall under this category. And that is a growth industry that the US should promote because of the huge demand potential for USTs they represent. More so over the long term than banks, even.

It's the non-bank entities holding USTs - insurance companies, large corporations, pension systems, individual investors, etc. who would get burned in such a deal. So, something else would have to be done for them. US issued stable coin CBDCs?

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

It's the non-bank entities holding USTs - insurance companies, large corporations, pension systems, individual investors, etc. who would get burned in such a deal. So, something else would have to be done for them.

Pension systems are a coin flip. Chicago is fucked. I assume a lot of CA. The rest of IL pensions are funded for the most part. I know my mom's pension fund is. She shouldn't have an issue over the next 30 years. She's actually said she has no clue how to spend all her money, so a cut in pension wouldn't really move her.

I think with SS, she's getting about $110k/yr as a widow with only two kids. Me and my sister who are 6 figure families. Still has one last property that's paid off that will be a wash when she buys my house. Roughly 3% COL increases every year. She'll be 80 making $130k/yr doing nothing. She'll likely pocket $50k of that per year in the bank and will spend that on the grandkids. Only technically 4. She'd include my nephew though.

If I was a Chicago cop, firefighter, teacher, city worker, etc at 40 years old I'd be a bit freaked out about the future. I don't predict it will be Detroit, but the cost of living (taxes) are going to continue to skyrocket in Chicago/Cook county and you have to live there to get the job. Their pensions are soooo up side down/underfunded.

Chicago will likely go to shit either way as cops flee the city. Housing prices will drop and crime will rise. I know two cops (couple) retiring at the earliest age allowed and moving out and getting suburban cop gigs. I think 51-52 with about an $80k/yr pension each. The cops are fleeing for sure. There's going to be a shortage and that will just raise costs and taxes.

Finances and how to protect yourself from our debt is not in my wheelhouse. I just know to not be in cities if/when shit hits the fan.

WookieMan says

Pension systems are a coin flip

I was referring to the Treasuries Pension Funds hold on their portfolios, not their overall solvency.

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looks like it has steadied around 120% which is welcoming with all the deficit spending in the Biden Harris administration

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AD says

looks like it has steadied around 120% which is welcoming with all the deficit spending in the Biden Harris administration

People of wealth are spending more than ever. The 20% upper income. The 80% still need groceries so the low bar stays where it generally is on higher cost of goods. The high bar on spending and investing is going up.

That graph means nothing for Biden/Harris/Walz when you factor in inflation. It's actually really bad. And I know that's not what you're saying, but rich people are the one's that pay taxes. They are making more. So Biden isn't borrowing as much but using tax dollars to pay for stuff.

The inflation helps that graph because it raises the GDP. Though most Americans don't benefit. And most have no clue that graph is technically higher than the covid years. I don't see a note for inflation adjusted. This type of graph is how Biden/Harris can blame Trump and say they stopped it. Like I said, inflation adjusted it's higher than the covid grey area. Debt to GDP will stay flat when all Americans have to buy the same things at higher prices and the wealthy are doing better.