patrick.net

The bears aren't your problem. It's the shitty central banking system about to collapse that's fucking you up. They don't just need CBDC's for control, they need them for survival...

February 2020 is my benchmark. S&P 500 peaked around 3380 then, and inflation since then has been about 20%.

Right now the S&P 500 is 4220. So its real return since then is roughly 4%. That is 4% over the last 2.5 years.

.

ad says

and inflation since then has been about 20%.

Right now the S&P 500 is 4220. So its real return since then is roughly 4%. That is 4% over the last 2.5 years.

Bidenomics!

So as far as stocks, the air has been let out of the balloon a lot. The companies got access to nearly free money such as COVID money and loans in a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) environment.

Money supply M2 spiked in 2022 from 2020 and now is down 10%.
.



.

Right now the market is beat up... S&P 500 is down about 12.5% from its all time high of 4818 set in December 2021

Its all about momentum and a cycle ...this time the fear and greed index is near bottom...so next stop is based on high upside potential since it likely cannot get that much worse within the next couple of weeks...

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

The bellweather stock (ticker BRK.B) is near bottom as far as RSI

https://www.technicalanalysischannel.com/berkshire-hathaway/

.

About 70 basis points to go before the 10 year yields more than the 3 month. It would be funnier than shit if the yield curve normalized not by having the short term rates decline, but by having the longer term rates increase,

For the 80% of the population with minimal financial assets and/or those with a fixed rate mortgage they really wouldn't notice. It could cause all kinds of problems for those who believe the propaganda that is currently on their brokerage account statements.

It could happen with enough government spending.

Misc says

About 70 basis points to go before the 10 year yields more than the 3 month

10 Year Treasury may return to 1990s levels which was around 6% to 8% ... the 30 year mortgage rate historically would track the 10 year Treasury as most mortgages are held for 7 to 10 years due to people moving or other reasons...

with the deficits and the total federal debt ($33 trillion), the 10 year Treasury needs to be between 2 and 3% at most over the long term as far as debt service sustainment...

the economy is slowing and inflation is slowly decreasing...so I think rates will eventually drop also...

https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart

.

Money supply is now following the trend line before the pandemic. That is all helping to keep inflation down, and ultimately may lead to the Fed dropping the Fed Funds rate in 2024.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS

.

I dunno about this slowing economy. Last I looked

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

Looked like we were coming out of a recession GDP Now puts 3rd quarter annualized growth at 4.9% as of Oct 2.

Over the last week or so, long term rates have shot up (gutted that newfound housing optimism. People had gotten used to the higher mortgage rates and started to say fuck it I'm buying. The new higher rates curtailed that sentiment), commodity prices have tanked along with equities. So, that would portend a slowing economy, but Friday's jobs report is forecasting 163k jobs created and a decline in the unemployment rate by a tenth a percent. Holiday sales are forecasted to increase 4.5-5.6% over last years record sales.

https://risnews.com/holiday-retail-forecasts-and-predictions-2023#:~:text=2023%20Holiday%20Spending&text=Holiday%20retail%20sales%20are%20likely,and%206%25%2C%20for%20comparison.

Employers are in a hiring frnzy, but here just ain't the number of qualified people for the number of positions that need filling.

Who knows...maybe even real wages will go up.

.

The Magnificent 7 (i.e., Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Tesla, Nvida) are propping up the S&P 500 this year.

Will there be a rotation to dividend paying stocks in 2024 ?

Vanguard's high dividend ETF is heavily in banks, energy and healthcare, and those stocks have cooled down since they were red hot during 2020-2022.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/economists-see-stubborn-us-core-140000636.html

.

ad says

The Magnificent 7 (i.e., Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Tesla, Nvida) are propping up the S&P 500 this year.

Here's the thing, one can simply use the Nasdaq, QQQ, if they want to swing trade the Mag 7 as they make up a vast majority of its weighted holdings. Here's a chart of that, using the basic 21 day period Stochastic RSI for buy/sell signals. This is an 'All Long' strategy, no short selling involved.

now i don’t understand those charts, however do you recommend any investments or symbols? i’m just in cash and treasuries and few rentals.

Rin, yeah I go by RSI and put-to-call ratio as far as selling or writing weekly covered calls.

I also look at price history such as in the green for 5 consecutive days likely means downside risk as it will drop or pullback in the next day or so.

I use the websites such as for Amazon

https://www.technicalanalysischannel.com/amzn/

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/AMZN/put-call-ratios

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/AMZN/price-history/historical

.

Yes, the above is a great swing trading strategy and given the high interest rate environment, this is looking like a major bear market "tech rally" despite the 200 day EMA looking bullish.

All and all, I use short term earnings to re-invest in high div defensive stocks like Rio Tinto, British-American Tobacco, & Altria. And I keep a remainder to spread out among others like Verizon, Vodafone, Chevron, etc.

For now, I haven't re-invested divs on things like Annaly Capital or Icahn. Those 10%+ div stocks are there for div harvesting only. In fact, my put options on Icahn kicked in last season as its stock price tumbled and I didn't have to sell any to break even. So today, it's still earning passive cash for me which goes into the big three div stocks.

Oh and one last point, the Stochastic RSI will breakdown once the market goes south. What it's great at is isolating the pullbacks and pauses in the middle of a bull run. Otherwise, it generates a ton of false signals.

So now, as the Mag 7 is making a tear, it can be used for swing trading the tech sector.

Rin says

RSI will breakdown

Yep I use default RSI which is RSI 14 days. RSI tends to fluctuate between 40 and 90 in a bull market (uptrend) with the 40-50 zones acting as a support level. RSI tends to fluctuate between 10 and 60 in a bear market (downtrend) with the 50-60 zone acting as resistance.

Right now I figure 75 is top resistance for the the Magnificent 7. Look at how ticker Googl has pulled back after it recently breached 70. I don't think it will bottom in this pullback to below 30.

.

There is just no liquidity in the equity markets currently. Everyone thinks that other market players are trading on insider information (which they might be). There's no real conviction on the part of big money.

New yearly highs for the indexes, but no conviction.

Misc says

There is just no liquidity in the equity markets currently. Everyone thinks that other market players are trading on insider information (which they might be). There's no real conviction on the part of big money.

New yearly highs for the indexes, but no conviction.

The economy is doing well with low inflation with annual inflation (ie., Personal Consumption Expenditures) at 3% and unemployment below 4%

PE is not high for growth stocks like Google, and for the S&P 500: https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio

Seems like that the conditions are favorable.
.

PCE core is at 3.5%. Don't let the fall in oil prices deceive you. Oil prices are grenading because of a contraction (yes outright decline) in China's economy. Interest rates have declined, but 25 basis points of that decline have come from investors requiring less of a real return on Treasuries not from a reduction in inflation expectations. The real return investors are expecting is 2% over the rate of inflation. That beats stocks over the long term.

You are right about the US economy being mighty and damn is it strong. There's weakness showing up in the Blue states, California in particular. Cali is trying to inflate its way out of budget problems. Its forecasting a revenue shortfall of about $58 billion. It does have a big rainy day fund, but that only lasts so long. Its unemployment rate is 4.8%, its climbing and pays a decent rate to the unemployed (so incentives to get a job are less than in say Florida. Low end wages are being forced up in Cali, what $20/hr for fast food workers???? Like I said, they are trying to inflate away their problems, but it ain;t gonna work. Unemployment and even more crime are in store for that State with its goofy priorities.

I expect core inflation to go up a bit in January with the COLAs from government monies being added to the economy and the increase in minimum wages from a bunch of states trickling in. More money for nothing, more illegals, not enough building means inflation and a lot of it on rents and OER.

The Blue States are probably gonna try some sort of rent control measures, while welcoming illegals, while forcing wages up and increasing taxes.

What a shitshow that'll be.

Misc says

PCE core is at 3.5%. Don't let the fall in oil prices deceive you.

PCE core (which is inflation minus food and energy) has continued to trend down.

It was 4.3% in July: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy

I think that is why we'll likely have a soft landing as far as inflation at least remaining below 3%.

Good point about "enough building". Need to see housing starts to increase to at least 200,000: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy

Agree about housing starts. Need it to return to at least 200,000 within next 16 months: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

Rent is at worse is holding steady in Panama City : https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/panama-city-fl/

Been seeing a lot of new apartments and townhomes being built.

.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

now i don’t understand those charts,

The yellow line on the bottom is RSI (a technical indicator) and when it bottoms out statistically it suggests a great time to buy for a short period (swing trade). You can see from the price changes along side in the history if you had bought at those bottoms the price was either flat or up but no loss.

I've been basically doing the same thing this year with MO figuring if I get stuck in it for a while at least it has a great divy.

just_passing_through says

I've been basically doing the same thing this year with MO figuring if I get stuck in it for a while at least it has a great divy.

RSI over 80 for Altria (ticker: MO). Next cycle is downward to 40 or less. Good time to sell covered calls one or two weeks out in expiration.

https://www.stockoptionschannel.com/symbol/mo/?symbol=MO&month=20231215&type=call&contract=43.50

,

Misc says

The Blue States are probably gonna try some sort of rent control measures, while welcoming illegals, while forcing wages up and increasing taxes.

What a shitshow that'll be.

Need some "mild austerity" because the trends with tax receipts and economic growth are not enough to sustain the current spending levels.

At least for 3 consecutive years reduce annual spending increases to 1.5% below annual inflation rate, and slightly increase the tax rates such as from 31% to 32.5%.

That should help to noticeably lower the debt to gdp ratio and the deficits.

.