patrick.net

Aside from monetary inflation to support the war, the biggest driver of inflation lately is the increase in the cost of energy, which Brandon is also responsible for.

How far/fast has inflation outpaced incomes? If it continues, it's just a matter of time before almost everyone goes bust.

And btw, how come 10s of millions haven't declared bankruptcy seeing that so many can't come up with $400 in an emergency. Monthly living expenses have gone up around $700/month.

GNL says

And btw, how come 10s of millions haven't declared bankruptcy seeing that so many can't come up with $400 in an emergency. Monthly living expenses have gone up around $700/month.

Can't afford the lawyer?

pudil says

To me it doesn’t feel like 2008 at all. Prices have gone up but so have rents and building costs.

I was on this site in the run up to 2008. Patrick had a very simple premise, rents and sale prices were out of wack. And he was right.

I don’t see that pattern in 2023. Prices are high but so are rents and so are prices to build new. If anything, we’re about to see a commercial real estate collapse, but I don’t think that will effect residential negatively.

+1000

PeopleUnited says

Fine, just buy the raw meat. Sale prices used to dip as low as $2.48 a pound for hamburger. Now $5 a pound is a relatively good deal.

If you don’t see that your grocery bill has gone up in the past few months you probably are not paying attention.

Again, you are answering wrong question and again with feelz. If you insist on picking just one thing - meat - what was the increase of price of meat in %% from May to June, June to July, July to Aug? Did these %% increase, decrease, go up then down, go down then up and by how much?

PS. My local Lucky constantly has sales on tri-tip at $3.97 pp. Does it prove anything? Of course not.

There is no inventory. People with houses at 3% mortgage won't sell. Now with higher rents, they are making killing. Also low unemployment, so people can pay.

People without houses will suffer.
With higher rates market should crash but it isn't.

PeopleUnited says

Fine, just buy the raw meat. Sale prices used to dip as low as $2.48 a pound for hamburger. Now $5 a pound is a relatively good deal.

If you don’t see that your grocery bill has gone up in the past few months you probably are not paying attention.

I've been buying grass fed ground beef from local farmers for 15 years. When we started, it was $7.50/lb. Now it's $9.60/lb. What I take away from this is that real (non-industrial) food costs more, but because of the way it's sustainably nourished and grown, as well as the fact that local farmers are not monopolies and can't arbitrarily raise prices without losing a big part of their clientele, the pricing mechanism is less chaotic.

stereotomy says

I've been buying grass fed ground beef from local farmers for 15 years. When we started, it was $7.50/lb. Now it's $9.60/lb.

I'd you do it right, that's not really that expensive. Americans eat a lot of meat.

RWSGFY says

PeopleUnited says

Fine, just buy the raw meat. Sale prices used to dip as low as $2.48 a pound for hamburger. Now $5 a pound is a relatively good deal.

If you don’t see that your grocery bill has gone up in the past few months you probably are not paying attention.

Again, you are answering wrong question and again with feelz. If you insist on picking just one thing - meat - what was the increase of price of meat in %% from May to June, June to July, July to Aug? Did these %% increase, decrease, go up then down, go down then up and by how much?

PS. My local Lucky constantly has sales on tri-tip at $3.97 pp. Does it prove anything? Of course not.

Look, it’s not feelz it’s fact. And its not just meat. Mayonnaise, lettuce, baked goods, corn chips. They are all up. Bury your head in the zelenskis ass if you must, but those of us paying attention to the aggregate grocery bill and energy costs see that prices are rising as a whole. This can be calculated on a monthly basis using more data points (not feelz, facts).

PeopleUnited says

Look, it’s not feelz it’s fact. And its not just meat. Mayonnaise, lettuce, baked goods, corn chips. They are all up. Bury your head in the zelenskis ass

Dude, this is so idiotic, it hurts. You didn't understand the question and when called out your last straw is zelensky's ass? Stay classy.

US Existing Home Sales Weakest July Since 2010

Existing home sales were expected to decline very modestly in July (-0.2% MoM) - after June's drop (the biggest since Nov '22). However, existing home sales tumbled more than expected (down 2.2% MoM), leaving sales down 16.6% YoY...

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-existing-home-sales-weakest-july-2010

The question was about the “rate of inflation”.

Which can only be measured comparing one period of time to another across a broad range of consumer prices.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2023/consumer-prices-up-3-2-percent-from-july-2022-to-july-2023.htm

But the data is clear. Prices continue to rise.

PeopleUnited says

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2023/consumer-prices-up-3-2-percent-from-july-2022-to-july-2023.htm

But the data is clear. Prices continue to rise.

We are going to have to see by end of 2025 if annual inflation has steadied at no more than 3%. There was so much disruption and volatility with fiscal and monetary actions that it was going to cause this much of an economic stir from 2021 to 2025.

Biden should never have spent as much stimulus money ($2.4 trillion, compared to Trump's $2.3 trillion) and the Fed should have started to raised rates by late 2021. The economy was not at risk when Birdbrain Biden took over, so there was no reason for Birdbrain to spend that much.

The question is if median income and wage increases are keeping up with inflation. For my household, we invest some of our money in stocks as a way to keep up with inflation.

.

.

Big_Johnson says

People without houses will suffer.
With higher rates market should crash but it isn't.

Yes, as there is no pressure to sell at a +20% decrease in the value or sales price of the house when peak prices were realized around early 2022.

There is still not enough supply to create a war between sellers, unlike the glut back in 2008-2011.

Look at the housing starts chart and you'll see why as there was not enough homes built after housing starts bottomed.

.

ad says

The question is if median income and wage increases are keeping up with inflation.

Are you seriously wondering if wages are keeping up with inflation?

GNL says

ad says

The question is if median income and wage increases are keeping up with inflation.

Are you seriously wondering if wages are keeping up with inflation?

No need to wonder. The answer is NO for the majority. Yes for the lucky few.

GNL says

Are you seriously wondering if wages are keeping up with inflation?

Si, senor.

.

.

Read this: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/airbnb-bubble-popping-will-pop-housing-bubble

I am glad to see a free article on Zero Hedge about such an important housing topic.

They cover the housing data such as number of housing units versus the population size.

.

.

Interesting as this article presents housing as an ownership crisis due to hoarding by the top 10% and corporations :

https://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug23/hoarding-housing8-23.html

.

ad says

.

Interesting as this article presents housing as an ownership crisis due to hoarding by the top 10% and corporations :

https://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug23/hoarding-housing8-23.html

.

It's nonsense. We have a higher percentage of homeownership today than at any time in the past. The average Joe is doing quite well.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/639685/us-home-ownership-rate-by-race/
https://ncrc.org/60-black-homeownership-a-radical-goal-for-black-wealth-development/

Eman says

GNL says

ad says

The question is if median income and wage increases are keeping up with inflation.

Are you seriously wondering if wages are keeping up with inflation?

No need to wonder. The answer is NO for the majority. Yes for the lucky few.

This is what will naturally happen in our system of fiat and debt fueled economy.

Misc says

It's nonsense.

Misc and also Biggie J (Big Johnson): yes, overall home ownership is better than 1995 (the start of the effects of globalization and free trade)

reference: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NHWAHORUSQ156N

That is if the home ownership data is accurate.

For example, is the home ownership data based on total population including those who are not legal citizens ?

.

Big_Johnson says

$5 for a sandwich? An avocado toast is $15.
As a millennial I don’t remember getting a good sandwich for $5. Was that 30years ago?

Before the COVID-19 scam our local bagel shop sold a chicken breast sandwich for less than $5. They now want almost $10.

RWSGFY says

Eh, this is feelz, not data.

Are you saying prices aren't going up? Or just looking for a peer reviewed study that verifies it?

GNL says

This is what will naturally happen in our system of fiat and debt fueled economy.

Yep, designed to help the biggest debtor or borrower, the US federal government.

$1 trillion borrowed in 2023 is only worth at most 97% of $1 trillion in 2024.

Inflate out of a debt crisis by instilling inflation (or hidden tax) on those who are most adversely impacted by inflation.

.

Onvacation says

Before the COVID-19 scam our local bagel shop sold a chicken breast sandwich for less than $5. They now want almost $10.

I'm looking at chicken prices such as at the Walmart in the Florida panhandle and it was 99 cents per pound for chicken legs.

Now it is around $1.20 a pound, which is same price as mid 2022.

So figure for white meat for chicken , the price per pound has increased about 30% since early 2020.

All the other cost increases is attributable to the wage increases, electric utility cost increase, etc.

.

Patrick says

We didn't? Securized subprime mortgages is still a thing?

Best way to track inflation is the price of gold bullion.

Also real estate 🏡

Robber Baron Elite Scum says

Best way to track inflation

Yeah, also silver. Look at iShares Silver Trust

It was $14 in April 2006. It is now around $21. So it appreciated about 2.5% annually since April 2006. Inflation was about 2.5% to 3% annually since 2006.

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RWSGFY says

We didn't? Securized subprime mortgages is still a thing?

MUH subprime...
https://news.uga.edu/new-perspective-on-the-housing-crash/
Conklin’s team looked county by county at the percentage of loans issued to borrowers with credit scores under 660 across the U.S. between 2000 and 2006.
“We looked at the areas where house prices grew and the areas where the number of subprime mortgages grew,” Conklin said. “They’re not the same places at all. If subprime lending was the driver of the housing boom, well then you would think that where house prices rose, you would have seen the largest growth in subprime lending and that’s just not what we found.”
Subprime borrowers were more likely to take out loans to buy entry-level or moderately priced houses in the overheated market, he said.
“And the places where we saw prices rising quickly, that’s where we saw prime borrowers were a larger part of the market,” Conklin said. “[Well-qualified] borrowers were probably able to bid higher than people we would consider marginal borrowers.
“The marginal buyers were priced out of the market; they didn’t get a chance to help house prices blow up because the borrowers with better credit scores and better incomes could bid the highest prices.”

Loan Originations and Defaults in the Mortgage Crisis: The Role of the Middle Class
Contrary to popular belief, which focuses on subprime and poor borrowers, we show that mortgage originations increased for borrowers across all income levels and FICO scores. The relation between mortgage growth and income growth at the individual level remained positive throughout the pre-2007 period. Finally, middle-income, high-income, and prime borrowers all sharply increased their share of delinquencies in the crisis. These results are consistent with a demand-side view, where homebuyers and lenders bought into increasing house values and borrowers defaulted after prices dropped.

Much had to do with adjustable rate mortgages. Once the Fed started raising rates, mortgage originators started coming out with negative amortization loans. When the rates went up further they came out with teaser rate loans that would adjust to current interest rates after a fixed period of time (the amount of time before the reset continuously decreased). The underwriters would qualify buyers for the teaser rate payment, even though the payment would double or triple in 3 months.

Flippers went all in.

richwicks says

Rubicon says

As a millennial I don’t remember getting a good sandwich for $5. Was that 30years ago?

20 years ago, you could get a decent grinder (sub, hoagie) for $5.

I remember Arby's 5 for $5 beef and cheese. You don't have to like the food, but for fast food that was a pretty good deal, but I think that was late 90's and phased out early 2000's. I'm a hard pass on Subway. It's just so bland for a sub. Jimmy Johns, Jersey Mikes and Firehouse are the chains around me that I'd pick over Subway 100% of the time. My old local butcher Josef's in Geneva hands down wins the Italian sub game. Best I've ever had or will have I think. Expensive though. Hell, I'll be in that area today. Might make that my dinner.

WookieMan says

Jimmy Johns, Jersey Mikes and Firehouse are the chains around me that I'd pick over Subway 100% of the time.

Wow, must be regional. I have found the Subways in Omaha and Virginia to be quite good. Jersey Mikes around here taste like Oscar Meyer on plain white bread. Jimmy Johns has horrible bread and bland meats, and Firehouse puts honey ham on an Italian sub.

Subway has meat that is a day from getting slimy and being tossed. It looks like shit, feels like shit, and has no taste.

When they first came out, Subway was amazing. Now it's like shitty old coldcuts you have to eat before the go bad tomorrow.

This began over a decade ago, and it's true up and down the East Coast. Subway was the first big franchise to really be nasty.

Except Jack Shit in the Box, they tried to open on the East Coast, but apparently their meats were defrosting en route, and a 600 people got food poisoning in the first month and at least one 4 died. Their store didn't last a few months in the NYC suburbs because their E.Coli scandal happened within days of them opening the first locations.

Edit: 4 kids died and of a syndrome related to E. Coli from Jack in the Box. And 600 sick . WOW!

EBGuy says

If subprime lending was the driver of the housing boom, well then you would think that where house prices rose, you would have seen the largest growth in subprime lending

I'm not sure that assumption is valid.

A Suckers Famous Last Words...
"This time is Different!"

Misc says

Much had to do with adjustable rate mortgages.

Will be interesting to see if this a factor given the extreme rate rise we just saw. Folks we know had to go this route due to self employment. They refinanced their California home to buy their Covid retreat. This, along with the $500k tax free on capital gains from a home sale, may push them to sell.