patrick.net

We'll see what happens this spring but, I'm pretty sure we are moving closer and closer to "you will own nothing and be happy" except for the "you'll be happy" part. We will start to see the homeownership rate fall and probably for a long time.

Is there any sort of chart that uses ounces of gold instead of dollars for housing the last 20-50 yesrs?

GNL says

We'll see what happens this spring but, I'm pretty sure we are moving closer and closer to "you will own nothing and be happy" except for the "you'll be happy" part.

Based on what?

SunnyvaleCA says

People are coming to realize that cars need to be kept locked up inside when not in use

Fortunately, with elected Sheriffs, and we have some tough ones, that isn't a major problem at least in suburban Florida. Around Miami and Orlando it's a thing, but not in most of Suburban Florida.

Sadly, with each passing year, Orange County (Orlando) becomes more and more blue and "Diverse", but Brevard is +19 Trump/Republican.

RC2006 says

Is there any sort of chart that uses ounces of gold instead of dollars for housing the last 20-50 yesrs?

I like https://silverprice.org/silver-price-history.html . Yes, the name is "silver" but they have all the data on gold as well. Here's a chart of gold priced in USD.

that uses ounces of gold instead of dollars for housing the last 20-50 yesrs

Amazing to see that gold was under $400/ozt between 1994 and 2004. From that price, gold has increased 5x. I bought my shack in 2004 and have seen 3x increase, which some people would consider poor compared to gold. But, as an "investment," the shack has worked out better because I got government-pushed low cost financing for my shack, giving me a wonderful return on that 20% down payment followed tax-deductible "margin" payments until I paid it off when interest rates looked to be rising in the 2010s. Plus, the property taxes I pay are less than the cost of renting.

The S&P 500 has undergone about a 5x increase from 2004 also, but at least if you own that basket of stock you would be getting dividends, too.

WookieMan says

I could see parts of CA and the East Coast losing 10%.

I don't know about the East Coast (nor anywhere else except the Bay Area).

This part of California, Bay Area, a 10% correction would set property owners back about one year of appreciation. It means that only the miniscule number who paid (or borrowed) for a place in the past year would have a "loss".

Even the 30% mentioned in the title of this thread would not be enough to make life less miserable around here in the Bay Area. Not even a 50% correction would be enough for that. It's not going to happen anyway. We still see folks paying too much for too little (with locked-in Super High Property Taxes) for the Privilege of Ownership in the Bay Area. Like in a different thread, Sunnyvale wrote:

SunnyvaleCA says

$31k/year for a 60 year old 3/2 of 1500 sq ft. That pales compared to the $160k/year interest on their mortgage

and on this thread:

SunnyvaleCA says

For the old "low-end" houses, prices are being pushed higher, as there are a lot of people desperately trying to buy anything they can afford.

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Maybe housing prices will crash and reach a floor or bottom when the median household price to income ratio drops below 5 ?

It is currently at 7.7 and peaked at 6.8 during the 2003-2007 housing bubble, and then bottomed to 4.7 in 2012.

https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/

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SunnyvaleCA says

Is there any sort of chart that uses ounces of gold instead of dollars for housing the last 20-50 yesrs?

https://www.longtermtrends.net/real-estate-gold-ratio/

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I had a phone call with one of my Realtor clients yesterday. She's located in Alexandria Va. She said...
1. Realtors are paid way too much
2. She made $40,000 on her last listing and only spent 30 hours in total on it.
3. Her last listing was owned for 6 months at the purchase price of $1,475,000. It just sold for $1,750,000.

GNL says

I had a phone call with one of my Realtor clients yesterday. She's located in Alexandria Va. She said...
1. Realtors are paid way too much
2. She made $40,000 on her last listing and only spent 30 hours in total on it.
3. Her last listing was owned for 6 months at the purchase price of $1,475,000. It just sold for $1,750,000.

Money spent 'in Ukraine'.

Broadway_Sam says

When will housing see its next 30% decrease?

After it rises another 50%.

Onvacation says

Broadway_Sam says

When will housing see its next 30% decrease?

After it rises another 50%.

That equates to a 5% increase overall. I assume that realistically would be over at least a 4 or 5 year period.

And that would result in negative real growth of housing prices since the historical appreciation rate for home values is around 4% annually.

Household income would grow about 2 to 3% annually, so at least income would catch up with housing prices.

Calculation for this post: 1 x 1.5 x 0.7 = 1.05

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