patrick.net

RC2006 says

Is there any sort of chart that uses ounces of gold instead of dollars for housing the last 20-50 yesrs?

I like https://silverprice.org/silver-price-history.html . Yes, the name is "silver" but they have all the data on gold as well. Here's a chart of gold priced in USD.

that uses ounces of gold instead of dollars for housing the last 20-50 yesrs

Amazing to see that gold was under $400/ozt between 1994 and 2004. From that price, gold has increased 5x. I bought my shack in 2004 and have seen 3x increase, which some people would consider poor compared to gold. But, as an "investment," the shack has worked out better because I got government-pushed low cost financing for my shack, giving me a wonderful return on that 20% down payment followed tax-deductible "margin" payments until I paid it off when interest rates looked to be rising in the 2010s. Plus, the property taxes I pay are less than the cost of renting.

The S&P 500 has undergone about a 5x increase from 2004 also, but at least if you own that basket of stock you would be getting dividends, too.

WookieMan says

I could see parts of CA and the East Coast losing 10%.

I don't know about the East Coast (nor anywhere else except the Bay Area).

This part of California, Bay Area, a 10% correction would set property owners back about one year of appreciation. It means that only the miniscule number who paid (or borrowed) for a place in the past year would have a "loss".

Even the 30% mentioned in the title of this thread would not be enough to make life less miserable around here in the Bay Area. Not even a 50% correction would be enough for that. It's not going to happen anyway. We still see folks paying too much for too little (with locked-in Super High Property Taxes) for the Privilege of Ownership in the Bay Area. Like in a different thread, Sunnyvale wrote:

SunnyvaleCA says

$31k/year for a 60 year old 3/2 of 1500 sq ft. That pales compared to the $160k/year interest on their mortgage

and on this thread:

SunnyvaleCA says

For the old "low-end" houses, prices are being pushed higher, as there are a lot of people desperately trying to buy anything they can afford.

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Maybe housing prices will crash and reach a floor or bottom when the median household price to income ratio drops below 5 ?

It is currently at 7.7 and peaked at 6.8 during the 2003-2007 housing bubble, and then bottomed to 4.7 in 2012.

https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/

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SunnyvaleCA says

Is there any sort of chart that uses ounces of gold instead of dollars for housing the last 20-50 yesrs?

https://www.longtermtrends.net/real-estate-gold-ratio/

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I had a phone call with one of my Realtor clients yesterday. She's located in Alexandria Va. She said...
1. Realtors are paid way too much
2. She made $40,000 on her last listing and only spent 30 hours in total on it.
3. Her last listing was owned for 6 months at the purchase price of $1,475,000. It just sold for $1,750,000.

GNL says

I had a phone call with one of my Realtor clients yesterday. She's located in Alexandria Va. She said...
1. Realtors are paid way too much
2. She made $40,000 on her last listing and only spent 30 hours in total on it.
3. Her last listing was owned for 6 months at the purchase price of $1,475,000. It just sold for $1,750,000.

Money spent 'in Ukraine'.

Broadway_Sam says

When will housing see its next 30% decrease?

After it rises another 50%.

Onvacation says

Broadway_Sam says

When will housing see its next 30% decrease?

After it rises another 50%.

That equates to a 5% increase overall. I assume that realistically would be over at least a 4 or 5 year period.

And that would result in negative real growth of housing prices since the historical appreciation rate for home values is around 4% annually.

Household income would grow about 2 to 3% annually, so at least income would catch up with housing prices.

Calculation for this post: 1 x 1.5 x 0.7 = 1.05

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