patrick.net

#israelicrisis Two of our readers are in Israel and still safe. They have had to go down to the bomb shelter of their hotel a few times when enemy rockets came in. My prayers are with them.
Since early Saturday morning, the situation in Israel has had my undivided attention. My "go-to" person who seems to understand the situation better than anyone else and its implications is Chris Cuomo. His family is political royalty in New York State. His dad was governor of New York. His brother was governor of New York State. Chris has worked as a very accomplished television journalist for decades. He is now on the News Nation Network. His show is broadcast at 17:00 and 21:00 Pacific time.
Chris is currently in Israel. He has brought out some surprising facts. First, some 100,000 US citizens live in Israel. Please reflect on this. My reading of this number is that the US is going to get drawn into what happens in Israel during this crisis. President Biden is publicly taking a calm and conciliatory attitude about this crisis. In private I am sure that he acts and talks differently.
Israel has a vibrant and brilliant high-technology industry. 1/5 of Israel's GDP comes from technology earnings. There is a claim that Israel has more high-tech startups than we have in Silicon Valley.
With all this technical prowess, Israel built a wall to separate it from the Gaza Strip. It is a brilliant metal fence with all sorts of electronic sensors and constant drone surveillance. It is far more advanced than anything we have built or will build along the Mexican border.
Hamas defeated this wall. They flew over it with paragliders. They defeated the electronic sensors. They knocked big holes in this fence and drove vehicles through them. I suspect that they spent two years preparing for this incursion. I am also sure that they had help from both Iran and Russia to come up with a plan to defeat this wall.
Your morning newspaper has an excellent article on why Israeli security forces and advanced technology failed. It is a profound warning for the US.
This morning there are many reports of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip rushing to overwhelm the Egyptian border to flee to that country. The resources do not exist in Egypt to handle such a huge influx of refugees.
Israel has set out the goal of eradicating Hamas. The Hamas people hide in tunnels and among civilians in the Gaza Strip. There will be a huge loss of life to achieve this goal.
Thus far, Hezbollah on Israel's other borders has remained quiet. This will not be the case as the hostilities continue. We are heading toward a direct conflict between Israel and Iran.
My advice to Israel and US military planners is to bring in some excellent military advisors from Ukraine. Some unconventional tactics and weapons are going to have to be used. One hint is that Iran has a serious Achilles Heel. Four refineries refine all the oil that they sell for massive foreign exchange earnings. If those 4 oil refineries were taken offline permanently, Iran's economy would collapse. Let your imagination run wild. I was once involved in a high-level war gaming group that looked at an Israeli attack on Iran to destroy its nuclear weapons program.