patrick.net

Not to brag (ok I'm bragging a little) between paying down debt aggressively (mortgage), growth and contributions to my 401(k) and a bit of appreciation on said home (bogus number to be sure) I'm up 15% so far thus year. Last year I had 20% growth. Buy and hold index funds and a couple of market specific ETFs in a Roth 401(k).

The couple of times I've tried day trading / short term bets with my "casino" money I've lost bigly.

My goal is to be able to retire at 55... Even though I don't see myself hanging it up that early.

As for 2025 I expect the AI bubble to pop, consumer staples to do well, and depending on who wins in November, defense stocks will go either way

GreaterNYCDude says

As for 2025 I expect the AI bubble to pop

Which stocks ? Nvidia ?

Seems like Amzn and Googl are not as at much risk since they are a lot more diversified and also Googl already has been beaten down due to the recent lawsuit by the federal government against it for being an internet search engine monopoly.

Googl is a very large fixture just based on the language saying "Google it" as far as researching a topic online.

.

.

S&P 500 total return was around 26% in 2023

Year to date, S&P 500 is up 19%

seems like a lot more downside risk now just going by valuations and slowing economic indicators

,

AD says

Which stocks ? Nvidia ?

That was the one that came immediately to mind. But I think even in the news / ad space you'll see far less hype about AI powered widgets in general.

GreaterNYCDude says

That was the one that came immediately to mind. But I think even in the news / ad space you'll see far less hype about AI powered widgets in general.

very true, and Googl and Amzn both have their "AI widgets" and are also "AI companies"

but are very diversified , and I consider them the "major integrateds" as far as "Artificial Intel companies", just like Exxon and Chevron are the "major integrateds" to oil and gas

Googl: Google Assistant on Android devices, Google Gemini, Google Home and Google Nest (i.e., Google Mini device)

Amzn: Alexa on Android and Apple devices, and Amzn devices like Amzn Fire tablets and Echo Show

to channel our inner AF: yams and ammo!!!

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

to channel our inner AF: yams and ammo!!!

I hope it does not get to the point that we have to go into extreme homesteading or survivalist mode, like almost out of a Mad Max movie.

That means extreme collapse, and a lot worse than the early 1930s.

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AD says

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

to channel our inner AF: yams and ammo!!!

I hope it does not get to the point that we have to go into extreme homesteading or survivalist mode, like almost out of a Mad Max movie.

That means extreme collapse, and a lot worse than the early 1930s.

.

i’m already homesteading lol. more for hobby reasons, i do enjoy it. it is completely unnecessary and more difficult than not doing it.

The day after the election, my stock portfolio shot up by over $50k. However, it has dropped back down now $40k from that high. I think the Fed decision has a little to do with that, but maybe the rest was just an exuberance reaction by the market.

Anyone else have a similar experience?

HeadSet says

The day after the election, my stock portfolio shot up by over $50k. However, it has dropped back down now $40k from that high. I think the Fed decision has a little to do with that, but maybe the rest was just an exuberance reaction by the market.

Anyone else have a similar experience?

I don't watch it. Causes too much stress. I dump and forget. I'm not in anything remotely risky. Still in 7 figure land. Not complaining for my age. So assuming insolvency doesn't happen with SS we'll have two maxed out accounts, plus savings and assets.

We'll have no problem with $10-15k/mo with no kids. We'll be closer to $2-4k in reality at retirement. We've been planning very well.

It might be safe soon to dump ammo and yams.

I wonder if there is some Polish stock market index fund.

Permanent portfolio here - PM's, Cash, Treasuries, and Stocks. The funny thing is, in recent times it functions more like a doomer portfolio.This shows how fake and rigged the investment climate is.

Just dropping this here:

https://financology.net/blog/

This is the Finster from iTulip back in the day.

Patrick says

I wonder if there is some Polish stock market index fund.

https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239676/ishares-msci-poland-capped-etf

Patrick says

I wonder if there is some Polish stock market index fund.

Polish stocks? Sounds like a joke as in:

How many Pollack stockbrokers does it take to change a light bulb?
Two, one to unscrew and drop it, and another to sell the bulb before it crashes.

stereotomy says

Permanent portfolio here - PM's, Cash, Treasuries, and Stocks. The funny thing is, in recent times it functions more like a doomer portfolio.This shows how fake and rigged the investment climate is.

Your cash should be doing well, especially if you had some CDs reset from the below 1% to the current 4-5%.

zzyzzx says

Patrick says

I wonder if there is some Polish stock market index fund.

https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239676/ishares-msci-poland-capped-etf

Thanks @zzyzzx I appreciate the tip. Maybe you know some other fund too?

I had some ishares funds years ago and they really pissed me off by paying a large dividend right after I bought in. The price dropped by exactly as much as the dividend of course, and then I was forced to pay taxes on my own money which had simply been given back to me.

Anyone else following in Buffet's footsteps and stashing away some cash? I've been selling indexes into the melt up and waiting for an opportunity to buy back in. Essentially trying time the market, which will probably end badly.

I have MO , it has done well. Also 7 to 10 percent dividend ain't bad. Props to rin for this recommendation

EBGuy says

Anyone else following in Buffet's footsteps and stashing away some cash?

I am letting dividends pile up in a MMSA that pays about 4%. Where are you keeping your cash while you wait for the indexes?

I use Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) for some money.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/marketable-securities/tips/

But I think the rate kinda sucks, like 3.5%

Patrick says

But I think the rate kinda sucks, like 3.5%

Recently rates for MMSA and CDs have fallen to make that 3.5% competitive.

Reply to Headset:
I saw my accounts rise from the day before the election, and the next few days.
It's possible, although maybe not so likely, that stocks rise 20% next year.

clambo says

I saw my accounts rise from the day before the election, and the next few days.

Wow, you pick 'em better that I do. Mine fell from that Nov 6th high starting on Nov 8th and trended down since, taking back $40k from that $50k gain. If someone somewhere had to do an RMD from an IRA, the day after the election would have been the day to do it.

I actually didn't keep track except for the day before and the day after the election; I didn't look since then so I don't really know.
My post above may be in error.
My results are likely the same as Headset and I haven't noticed.

I'm just happy that my taxes are not going up just yet; taxes have a real impact on my net investment returns.

WookieMan says

I'm not in anything remotely risky.

It is said that rich minimize risk while the poor and middle class maximize risk, what do you guys think?

I am up 33% so far, have recently moved much of my money into CEFs

Once you are rich, you may expect to live well from dividends, interest, rents, business profits, etc. and may avoid risk since you don't need any more capital.

If you want to accumulate more capital, you probably can assume some risk; mutual funds usually help lower risk.

I was determined to avoid being broke during my retirement, which was a terrible thing in my mind; buying stock mutual funds didn't seem nearly risky by comparison to me.

I have a friend down here in Baja Sur Mexico who is English and not well off; because he doesn't have much dough he had hip replacement surgery here, and there were complications. His quality of life is poorer now because he didn't have the money to be in England for 6 months so he could be treated there. Their system has rules about guys coming home after living overseas evidently.

Insurance is for spreading the risk of something to a pool of many other people; statistically this helps lower your risk of ruin.
I applied for a Mexican resident visa for the purpose of buying private health insurance while I'm down there.

gabbar says

It is said that rich minimize risk

For a person to go from poor to rich, some risk taking was in order. For those who married into wealth or inherited it, I suppose those are the rich who avoid risk.

My stocks have now surpassed the day after election rally. I suppose others on Patnet have the same results. I wonder what is driving the increase.

I'm also way up.

I suppose it's optimism about the economy, but that could be "irrational exhuberance" as Greenspan once said.

What is making the stock market exhuberant: 1. the prospect of lower interest rates, especially if Trump gets the economy moving 2. the prospect of tax cuts or no tax increases 3. the prospect of lower oil and energy prices.

Whether the above comes to pass, stock investors like the possibilty of it.

HeadSet says

I am letting dividends pile up in a MMSA that pays about 4%. Where are you keeping your cash while you wait for the indexes?

For the Vanguard account, funds sweep to VMFXX, which is all right by me. ETrade is total sh*t since being bought by Morgan Stanley. I think they sweep to a MS bank account (for you safety! I was told when I called) that pays like .1%. So some of that I put in CLIP (short term treasuries) and the rest to VMFXX. These are all in retirement accounts. YMMV.

SharkyP says

I am up 33% so far, have recently moved much of my money into CLOs.

I had to look up CLO - first hit was "Collateralized Loan Obligation". How does a retail investor move into CLO's and why would you?

TIA.

clambo says

the prospect of lower oil and energy prices.

This. The inflation has happened already. Prices will stay where they are and margins will increase. Some brands might have to cut prices a bit. In my world Biden actually did a good thing for Trump. Not intentional.

Hauling shit up and down the Mississippi. LA to Denver. Chicago to Indianapolis. New York to Nashville. If that shit gets cheaper to ship profits go up. I know some energy prices are contracted at a set price like airlines and probably ships. But if you're the guy eating ramen noodles because you can't pay for gas, you're going to end up spending more with cheaper gas.

Also profits on LNG being exported to Europe will go up. I don't like predictions, but if Trump is drill baby drill it's gonna be good. Anyone on here have oil fields, fracking, natural gas pipelines around them? Natural gas is a biggie by me. Cleanest sites for a major energy corporation. The environmentalist just need to get over it. Get over the gay and trans shit as well.

Hopefully the Democrats will finally open their eyes (not actually hopeful). You know who benefits from lower gas prices equally? LGTBQ weirdos. Us right wing nut jobs WANT to help you. Have a 401k, lower energy HELPS you. No one is out there beating gays and trans people... besides Juicy Smolett, self inflicted.

I don't trust the MAGA transition is done, but it really is a party of the people. I think people are seeing the Dem party has failed them. R's ain't perfect with the RINO class, but it's better in the House for sure.

Gotta get these geezers out of office, specifically Congress (sorry patnet geezers). Congress should be 35-55 at oldest. I like Clarence Thomas, but he needs to retire so SCOTUS is secure and hope Sotomayor drops dead. Not a threat as I have ZERO interest in going to DC. Been there done that. And whoever plans to run in 2028, plant your seeds now. The Dem bullpen is empty so get a head start. Simple as just stating I want to run. Trump is a lame duck, so it won't bother him.

What the heck happened this afternoon that caused the stocks to plummet?

Maybe Fed comments implying they will not be able to cut rates any further because of inflation.

Patrick says

Maybe Fed comments implying they will not be able to cut rates any further because of inflation.

I thought I scored well two days ago when I bought Ford on a quick dip to $9.95 and it settled back up to about $10.07. Now the gods laugh and Ford plummets this afternoon to around $9.70. The rest of my portfolio fell over $50k in just 1 hour or so after 3PM. These market reactions usually reverse themselves so hopefully it will recover of the next few days.

This country has been running on fumes ever since 2008. Take the red pill and enjoy the decline. Oh, and learn 18th Century skills - you'll need them.