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2024 where to invest


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2023 Dec 27, 3:15pm   9,360 views  202 comments

by KgK one   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Housing and stocks can crash in 2024.

Gold holds value but no return.

Berkshire may be good investment

Amazon n microsoft keeps monopolizing so they will do well

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103   Rin   2024 Feb 3, 6:39am  

gabbar says


I want to gift 50k to my teenager and leave it alone for 10 years, where should I invest?


If you're not actively trading (vis-a-vis investing) the money and thus, don't have a sense of creating a basket of dividend paying stocks or ETFs, then I'd default to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The reason for choosing the Dow30 is that unlike the S&P500, only 3 tech "LALA" stocks like Apple, Microsoft, & Saleforce are in the Dow30 capping out at ~15%. Other Dow30 "technology oriented" stocks like Honeywell, IBM, CISCO are no longer a part of the Silicon Valley 'buzz' and almost appear to behave like utility companies from a portfolio p.o.v. And many of the other Dow stocks like Chevron, 3M, Verizon, etc, give dividends and thus, will do all right with a DRIP set in place.

Here's a calculator on how re-investing dividends, during two back-to-back bear markets resulted for the Dow30.



And compare that with the S&P500.


104   Misc   2024 Feb 3, 1:31pm  

You could always do something ballsy like park it in a 10 year treasury. It pays about 4%, which is about 1.8% over the expected rate of inflation.
105   gabbar   2024 Feb 3, 2:23pm  

Misc says


You could always do something ballsy like park it in a 10 year treasury. It pays about 4%, which is about 1.8% over the expected rate of inflation.

Right now, I have the 50k parked in a 1 month treasury (I learned about treasuries from this site) I see, but please explain which this is ballsy? I assume you are saying that this is bold.
106   Misc   2024 Feb 3, 2:53pm  

gabbar says

Misc says



You could always do something ballsy like park it in a 10 year treasury. It pays about 4%, which is about 1.8% over the expected rate of inflation.

Right now, I have the 50k parked in a 1 month treasury (I learned about treasuries from this site) I see, but please explain which this is ballsy? I assume you are saying that this is bold.


Nope just super conservative (was being facetious). Also, 1.8% over the rate of inflation is typically what a person would expect from investing in stocks...so getting that guaranteed from a bond investment that is guaranteed by the US government seems like a good bet.
107   Misc   2024 Feb 3, 3:21pm  

Another investment idea for those with bucks is to just hold the funds in a money market account and buy a trophy property in a few years.

I have a feeling that high-end properties are gonna see a huge devaluation. The rich are just as leveraged as the common folk (there really are no adults) and quite a number of them have been maintaining their lifestyle based on being able to go further and further into debt. Property upkeep and increases in property taxes are gonna put enough of them into the situation of having to sell. There should be enough of these forced sales at once to cause prices to grenade. If you have to sell, but there are no buyers...prices rapidly go to zero. Take a look at all the dilapidated mansions from years gone by to see what the future holds for many of these properties...unless they can get a buyer...and that buyer will pay a pittance for these trophy homes in today's dollars.

Just my opinion.
108   HeadSet   2024 Feb 3, 5:36pm  

Misc says

that buyer will pay a pittance for these trophy homes in today's dollars.

True, but one of the reasons is that the tax and upkeep on these trophy homes are stratospheric. A $6million home in a high tax place like Omaha can cost over $10k per month in local property taxes alone.
109   Misc   2024 Feb 3, 5:45pm  

...And don't forget insurance ! ! ! !

Yet there are a huge number of properties priced today at $10 million or more even with those costs, but when the banks won't lend anymore against the asset...well a massive sell-off.

But yep, a 70% discount on a $10 million manse is still an outlay of $3 million. That does keep the peasants at bay, and then yes the ongoing expenses.
110   gabbar   2024 Feb 3, 6:40pm  

Misc says

Nope just super conservative (was being facetious). Also, 1.8% over the rate of inflation is typically what a person would expect from investing in stocks...so getting that guaranteed from a bond investment that is guaranteed by the US government seems like a good bet.

Gotcha, but I had to look up the meaning of the word, facetious.....lol
111   gabbar   2024 Feb 4, 1:38pm  

Rin says

If you're not actively trading (vis-a-vis investing) the money and thus, don't have a sense of creating a basket of dividend paying stocks or ETFs, then I'd default to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The reason for choosing the Dow30 is that unlike the S&P500, only 3 tech "LALA" stocks like Apple, Microsoft, & Saleforce are in the Dow30 capping out at ~15%. Other Dow30 "technology oriented" stocks like Honeywell, IBM, CISCO are no longer a part of the Silicon Valley 'buzz' and almost appear to behave like utility companies from a portfolio p.o.v. And many of the other Dow stocks like Chevron, 3M, Verizon, etc, give dividends and thus, will do all right with a DRIP set in place.

I am holding out for a crash. I hear that China is slowing down too. I am gonna give it 6 more months and see how things pan out.
Thank you.
112   AD   2024 Feb 4, 4:43pm  

gabbar says


I am holding out for a crash. I hear that China is slowing down too. I am gonna give it 6 more months and see how things pan out.
Thank you.


A stock market crash within 5 months of the election ? Also as far as your post about 1.8% real annual return for stocks, I think it is more like at least 6% not 1.8%.

.
113   mell   2024 Feb 4, 4:44pm  

The reason the market will not crash is because it's anticipating a Trump victory
114   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2024 Feb 4, 6:01pm  

Guns. Guns and ammo. Has anyone seen the illegal alien amnesty bill congress is trying to pass?
115   AD   2024 Feb 4, 7:25pm  

just_passing_through says

Guns and ammo


need to focus more on homesteading and survivalist mode ?
116   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2024 Feb 4, 7:27pm  

Or just some Ilegal-B-Gone.
117   AD   2024 Feb 4, 7:29pm  

Misc says

Also, 1.8% over the rate of inflation is typically what a person would expect from investing in stocks


Misc, I would expect to earn that with a 70/30 fund (70% investment grade bond fund/30% stock index fund) such as retirement income fund, but I would reasonably expect at least a 6% real annual return for stocks like total stock market index fund.

.
118   Misc   2024 Feb 5, 11:41pm  

AD says


Misc says


Also, 1.8% over the rate of inflation is typically what a person would expect from investing in stocks


Misc, I would expect to earn that with a 70/30 fund (70% investment grade bond fund/30% stock index fund) such as retirement income fund, but I would reasonably expect at least a 6% real annual return for stocks like total stock market index fund.

.



The problem in the investment world is that too many people are trying to "save" or "invest". Some people (like a large percentage of people on this site) think that their "investments" will increase in value. Mathematically, for the vast majority of people, they must lose value on their holdings.

Lemme just give some ballpark numbers. The US GDP is about $27 trillion. The savings rate is about 4%. That means the wizards of Wall Street have to come up with about $1 trillion of new financial instruments each and every year to cover the publics infatuation with saving. But wait...it doesn't stop there. We have to also invent new financial instruments to cover the investment returns of all the savings to date. The US stock market has a value of about $51 trillion. So using your figure of a 6% real return, that means that there must be an added about $3 trillion each year. But WAIT there's more the US government has about $34 trillion in debt. It's currently paying about 2% over the rate of inflation...so lets say $650 billion extra per year. Toss in an extra $120 billon for the interest for State and Local debt. About $17 trillion in corporate debt let's say 3% over the rate of inflation gives us about $500 billion more.

So ballpark about $5.25 Trillion each and every year at an ever increasing amount. Puts it at about 19% of GDP. At this point the Wall Street folks aren't even trying.

People should really regard their financial statements from their financial institutions as they would any other Wall Street propaganda. The sheer amount of malinvestment in unfucking real.
119   gabbar   2024 Feb 6, 1:20am  

Misc says


Mathematically, for the vast majority of people, they must lose value on their holdings.

Misc says


People should really regard their financial statements from their financial institutions as they would any other Wall Street propaganda. The sheer amount of malinvestment in unfucking real.

Very interesting. Is this how government keeps itself the richest and the most powerful entity?
120   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2024 Feb 6, 8:39am  

I've received notice that some of my bonds are being called this week. Well, actually not until the 15th...
121   AD   2024 Feb 7, 11:18am  

.

Oh snap , even Google saw a slight decline in advertiser sales thanks to a slowing economy (and also Tik Tok and Facebook competition ?) ... how long can it continue to operate without any earnings ?

Just like Google made job cuts annoucements before earnings call, so did Snap about 2 days ago: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/05/snap-to-lay-off-10percent-of-global-workforce-around-500-employees.html

That is somewhat of an earnings red flag if they announce job cuts before earnings call
.


.



.
122   AD   2024 Feb 8, 12:35pm  

.

See below. Einhorn says the market has very little value investing. This is being worsened by passive investors such as those just pouring money into a S&P 500 index fund as part of their 401k and / or IRA.

As far as value or valuation, the S&P 500 is still not as bad as 1999: https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/markets-are-fundamentally-broken-due-to-passive-investing-says-david-einhorn-0e480247

‘I view the markets as fundamentally broken…Passive investors have no opinion about value. They’re going to assume everybody else has done the work.’

— David Einhorn, president, Greenlight Capital

That’s hedge-fund titan David Einhorn arguing it’s tough out there for active money managers thanks to the seemingly inexorable rise of passive investing. The remarks came in an interview with Ritholtz Wealth Management co-founder Barry Ritholtz in his “Masters in Business” podcast.

“Value is just not a consideration for most investment money that’s out there. There’s all the machine money and algorithmic money which doesn’t have an opinion about value it has an opinion about price: ‘What is the price going to be in 15 minutes and I want to be ahead of that,'” he explained.

Amid what’s left of active management, “the value industry has gotten completely annihilated,” he said.
123   AD   2024 Feb 8, 12:43pm  

.

I differ with Einhorn (see above post) in that the companies that are rallying have been achieving earnings for an extended period, unlike in 1999 with a lot of companies that never were profitable. I would state the active investing is now a lot less speculative compared to 1999.

For example, Google has a P/E of 27 which is rather low for a relatively new company; it went public in 2004 and it has shown steady growth in sales and earnings. Also it is focused on diversifying.

.
124   AD   2024 Feb 14, 11:00pm  

Dr Michael Burry just bought Google and Amazon stock in 4th quarter of 2023... may be part of reason those stocks rallied in the 4th quarter

Bezos recently sold about $4 billion of Amazon stock

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/14/michael-burry-of-the-big-short-fame-buys-amazon-alphabet-and-a-dozen-of-other-new-stocks.html
125   stfu   2024 Feb 15, 4:13am  

Burry is starting to look like a one hit wonder.
126   Misc   2024 Feb 15, 4:30am  

Nope he's just running a classic pump and dump scam.

How does the media know what trades he's made? ? ? - He is the one that leaks it to them.
127   gabbar   2024 Feb 15, 4:31am  

Warren Buffett took more than 50% loss on Paramount Global. His buys of Occidental Petroleum and Chevron seem to be indicating that oil price will increase in several months. Burry and Marks are both in JD. Any thoughts on PayPal, value trap or an opportunity?
128   KgK one   2024 Feb 15, 6:53am  

Paramount global seems to go go down a lot and up , if someone can find trend , or political impact, we can make great $
129   AD   2024 Feb 15, 9:59am  

Misc says

Nope he's just running a classic pump and dump scam.

How does the media know what trades he's made? ? ? - He is the one that leaks it to them.


His holdings are published quarterly as part of his SEC 13F filings, same goes for Warren Buffett, Ray Dalio, Bruce Berkowitz, George Soros, etc.
.



.
130   KgK one   2024 Feb 19, 12:17pm  

What you guys think of 3M MMM it's around 91 $ with 6% dividend? It gave profit warning for 2024 n stock already went down.
131   gabbar   2024 Feb 19, 12:29pm  

KgK one says

What you guys think of 3M MMM it's around 91 $ with 6% dividend? It gave profit warning for 2024 n stock already went down.



132   HeadSet   2024 Feb 19, 1:33pm  

gabbar says

What you guys think of 3M MMM it's around 91 $ with 6% dividend? It gave profit warning for 2024 n stock already went down.

That has been on my watch list. I plan to buy if it falls to $90.
133   AD   2024 Feb 19, 2:18pm  

MMM or 3M's stock is at 2007 price level :-/

Headset, sell 2 or 3 Puts at strike $90 that expires next Friday.



.
134   Eman   2024 Feb 19, 2:27pm  

HeadSet says

gabbar says


What you guys think of 3M MMM it's around 91 $ with 6% dividend? It gave profit warning for 2024 n stock already went down.

That has been on my watch list. I plan to buy if it falls to $90.

Selling $90P is not a bad suggestion if you’re looking to buy it at $90. 45 cents credit for this Friday and 85 cents next Friday.

If you plan to straddle, buy half position at this price, sell $92C for 68 cents credit and sell $90P weeklies to generate income.
135   AD   2024 Feb 19, 4:21pm  

There is a $6 billion lawsuit against 3M for faulty earplugs issued to the Pentagon.

Net income was negative $7 billion for 2023 for 3M.

It says in the previous post about the $6 billion lawsuit claims being paid over 6 years. 2024 may not be as bad a year as 2023 for 3M.

https://www.lawsuit-information-center.com/13-million-3m-earplug-verdict.html

,
136   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2024 Feb 19, 4:28pm  

i’m researching REO/Foreclosures, gonna try to do eman type of business here buying foreclosures, remodel and sell. everyone starts somewhere.
137   Eman   2024 Feb 19, 4:30pm  

$32.7B in sales
EBITA of $7.7B
$17B debt
$6B cash
Dividend costs $3.3B/year
Say the $17B cash costs $1B/year in debt service.

If they lose the lawsuit, it will cost them $1B/year for the next 6 years.

It looks sustainable, but they need to get back to being profitable ASAP.
138   Eman   2024 Feb 19, 4:35pm  

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

i’m researching REO/Foreclosures, gonna try to do eman type of business here buying foreclosures, remodel and sell. everyone starts somewhere.

REO is different with foreclosures aka trustee sales/auctions. Tread carefully with the latter. REO is straightforward and is guaranteed of clean title while trustee sales aren’t.

REO means Real Eatate Owned (by the bank), which means it has been foreclosed. When bank sells it to the end buyer, clean title is a must for escrow to insure the policy.

There are two types of states…judicial and non-judicial. Foreclosing procedures are different. Please do your due diligence.
139   HeadSet   2024 Feb 19, 6:35pm  

AD says


Headset, sell 2 or 3 Puts at strike $90 that expires next Friday.

Interesting. But I am buying this in an IRA account and I am buying strictly for dividends. I figure the price will bottom out at $90, and at $90 the quarterly dividends will give me 6-7% APR. Any rise in stock price would be gravy.

Oh, wait, I see what you mean. Use the puts to acquire the stock if the price stays above $90. Unfortunately, I do not have enough free cash in that particular account to buy 100 shares. It is just a 1-year IRA contribution that I have fun with day trading.
140   AD   2024 Feb 19, 7:07pm  

HeadSet says

Use the puts to acquire the stock if the price stays above $90.


I understand as I thought you would have $9,000 to make the purchase of 3M if the price closes below $90 at contract expiration on Friday (i.e., $90 strike Put option contract is in the money and you get assigned the 100 shares).

...
141   Eman   2024 Feb 21, 3:39pm  

Looks like MMM is sitting on a pretty good volume shelf/support here at $91.


142   stfu   2024 Mar 6, 3:47am  

PSA. Robinhood is paying you 3% to roll over your IRA or 401K to their platform. If into a tIRA the bonus is pre-tax. If into a Roth the bonus will be taxable.

There are posters on Bogleheads that have rollled over enough to get a bonus of $75k. If there's a limit no one has reported it yet.

You have to sign up for their "Gold" plan for one year at $5/ month and the offer expires on April 30th.

This leads me to a question because I'm in the middle of an old 401k rollover with them :

If you had to pick any combination of the following 3 ETF's, where would you invest this chunk right now?

1) IUSG iShares Core S&P US Growth
2) SCHB Schwab US Broad Market
3) SCHD Schwab US Dividend Equity

1 & 2 are almost identical in their top 10 holdings, the difference being that IUSG is much more concentrated at the top (ie .. Both # 1 is MicroSoft but IUSG is at 12% While SCHB is at 6%)
3 is definitely more defensive with a PE of 14 versus 26 and 24 for the other two respectively and sports a 3.4% divi while the others are around 1%.

I'm torn because IUSG has been on a tear while SCHD is plodding but I also read zerohedge so I'm inundated with doom porn as far as the market goes. SCHB might be a compromise?

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