patrick.net

Here’s an idea for how the Democrats can snap out of the nightmare brought on by Thursday’s debate and emerge with a startlingly attractive ticket. Call this a game of electoral fantasy football, as it’s unlikely that the necessary real-life players would go along with the plan—but if they did, victory in November would be almost certain.

President Joe Biden’s egregious showing at the debate was not so much a bad “performance” as a neon warning sign that he might be as feeble and unsuited for another term in the White House as his harshest critics have been saying. It’s sparking panic in party circles, spurring some to urge the 81-year-old incumbent to drop out, free his delegates, and unleash a brokered Democratic National Convention.
Of course, this path poses problems, as even its advocates acknowledge. First, Biden has enough committed delegates to win the nomination; he can’t legally be ousted; he would have to drop out himself; and, at least for the moment, he and his family—the crucial deciders—are showing no inclination to do so.
Second, many of those calling for Biden to step down have little appetite for Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place. She has chalked up no record of accomplishments, chaired no high-level commissions, and gained no traction of any sort in her three and a half years in the executive bullpen. Yet to bypass her in favor of some white guy could alienate Black women—and Black women voters are widely seen as the “backbone” of the Democratic Party.

Third, as for the other Biden alternatives populating many wish lists—including California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, etc.—there is no guarantee whatsoever that any of them would win in November or, for that matter, do any better than Biden or Harris would do against Donald Trump. They have had no experience in national races and may have as-yet-undetected skeletons in their own closets.
So, what to do? How about this scenario:
First, Biden resigns before the convention. Second, Harris succeeds him as president. Third, with what would be the unanimous assent of the Democratic Caucus (which is all she needs, if she needs even that), Harris appoints Barack Obama as her vice president and registers him as her running mate for the 2024 election.

The return of Obama—still very popular and the de facto head of the Democratic Party—would generate enormous excitement among party leaders, donors, and the general population. Other Democrats, who might have run for the top slot at a brokered convention, would lay such plans aside. A Harris-Obama ticket would almost certainly defeat Trump.
This scenario would not be unconstitutional. The 22nd Amendment states, “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice,” but it doesn’t forbid a former two-term president from running for vice president. True, as veep, Obama would be in a position to return to the Oval Office for a third term, should Harris die or resign. But this wouldn’t be a problem either. The amendment reads: “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.” (Italics added.) It does not forbid subsequent succession to the office.

The real problem is that this isn’t likely to happen. Even if Biden could be persuaded to resign, Harris would be very reluctant—would probably refuse—to become a mere figurehead president, which is how she would be perceived and might actually be. (Voters would certainly see the setup as a backdoor way to reelect Obama.) Finally, Obama, whose two terms as president aged him considerably, may not want to reenter the fray. He seems to be having a lot of fun while still doing useful things as a civilian.
But, but, but … What if Biden and his advisers calculated, in the next few days or weeks, that he really does need to call it quits? What if Harris would gulp and take the deal, seeing that, if she didn’t, she might not get the nod at a brokered convention and might not win in the general election? Also, whatever relation she and VP Obama established, she would gain a lot of experience this time around and, if all goes well, have a good chance of winning on her own in 2028? And what if Obama, seeing this plot as the most likely way to keep Donald Trump from regaining the White House, sets his Netflix productions aside (or leaves them entirely to Michelle), lays aside Vol. 2 of his memoirs (with the idea that this next chapter could make for Vol. 3), and jumps back in as a matter of supreme civil duty?