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Since Jan 1, (Year to Date) the S&P 500 index is down 5.26% , this month it's down 8.18%, its 5 year return= 105.3%

It's always annoying when it goes down, but what the hell, that's the deal with stonks.

Patrick says

Things will get really interesting if house prices fall back to the normal ratio of costing about 3 years of work.

A lot of the elderly will have to sell their stocks, putting pressure there too.

Banks will all be bankrupt, because your "deposits" are mostly in mortgages.

I'd finally be able to afford a house, except for my stocks having gone down so much, lol. Whatever.

I see home prices staying constant or flat for the next few years for those zip codes where home prices dropped at least 10% from their all time highs set between early 2022 to mid 2023.

Also, elderly who have equity in their homes can get reverse mortgages to be able to pay for home expenses, etc (property tax/insurance/maintenance, home health care, etc)

I hope we don't have lost decade or decades as far as inflation-adjusted returns (like from March 2000 to March 2020)

S&P 500 :
March 2000: 1500
March 2009: 666
February 2013: 1500
March 2020: 2300
February 2025: 6417 (ALL TIME HIGH)
Today: 5572
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S&P 500 real return for last 3.5 years is averaging around 1.25% annually



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S&P 500 crossed over to correction territory today which is 10% below last high (which is all time high) of 6147.

AMZN is down 20% and GOOGL is down 22% from the most recent high which is also the all time high.

As expected the Magnificent 7 were going to pullback before the S&P 500 and at a higher amount retracement.

Maybe the Vanguard Healthcare Fund will have a better year in 2025.

Warren Buffett made a wise move last year by allocating about 34% of Berkshire Hathaway assets in cash.

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With as skeptical as most people on this site are, it amazes me that very few view the statements they receive from their financial institutions as the propaganda that they are.

Patrick says

I'd finally be able to afford a house, except for my stocks having gone down so much, lol. Whatever.

Did your dividend paying stocks go down much? I'm not referring to stuff that just happens to pay a dividend, like FB, Apple, NVIDIA, Microsoft, etc. I'm referring to things like the energy sector and REITS? Since you are retired I would assume that you loaded up on that type of thing already (or should have). And if you do own dividend paying stocks would you really care all that much of they did drop, as long as the dividends kept coming?

zzyzzx says

Did your dividend paying stocks go down much?

Mine did, by a lot. They still pay the same dividends though, so far.

HeadSet says

zzyzzx says
Did your dividend paying stocks go down much?

Mine did, by a lot. They still pay the same dividends though, so far.

Vanguard High Dividend Yield fund is one popular dividend paying fund.

There is not much change in how much dividends are paid out per share (or as a percentage of steady earnings).

It will be interesting to see how much the ticker CALM will adjust dividends per share over the next four years as the Trump admin restores regulation sanity of the poultry industry.

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zzyzzx says

And if you do own dividend paying stocks would you really care all that much of they did drop, as long as the dividends kept coming?

The dividends do keep coming, which is nice.

I don't really care about the market overall. I assume I'll outlive any downturn.

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From today's Finimize's email. S&P 500 projected by Goldman Sachs to finish the year at +3%.

=================================================

What’s going on here?

Goldman Sachs downgraded its forecast for the S&P 500 on Sunday, based on economic predictions pessimistic enough to make you want to hide under the covers.

What does this mean?

Goldman expects the average US tariff rate to rise by 15 percentage points this year. And as businesses fold levies into prices, everyday Americans will foot much of the bill. In fact, Goldman now expects inflation to hit 3.4% this year – higher than its previous 2.9% forecast and far greater than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. With the economy expected to strain under that pressure, the big bank now sees a 35% chance of a recession – up from 20% – in the next 12 months. So you can see why Goldman cut its S&P 500 forecast: the bank’s now expecting a modest 3% uptick by the end of the year – a sliver of the 12% it pitched before.

Why should I care?

Zooming in: It was nice while it lasted.

The S&P 500 has historically fallen by around 25% during a recession, with the timing of the drop dependent on the speed and size of the economy’s slowdown. As for this potential one coming, Goldman sees profit for S&P 500 companies sliding by 13% – and that could pull the index’s stocks down 17% from today’s level.

The bigger picture: Get ready to say, “bless you”.

Both institutional and retail investors have swapped stateside stocks for foreign ones lately. Europe’s have been especially popular: they’re cheap in comparison to America’s and could soon benefit from government plans to spend a lot more. But if the US does fall into a recession, the rest of the world’s stocks will catch the proverbial cold. And in that case, you might be happy to have cash and bonds on hand: when interest rates are higher than inflation and volatility is heady, they make for decent hiding places.

From great expectations for the US market to "hide in Europe, cash or bonds" in how many weeks?

My international ETF's continue to suck ass. I don't know where all the ex-US optimism is coming from. They'd have to go on a multi-year +20% tear vs. US ETF's to even get close to catching up to good ole VTI.

AD says

S&P 500 real return for last 3.5 years is averaging around 1.25% annually

I'd take that all day long. That means I'm getting ahead of inflation, albeit slowly.

In my experience US stock ETF's are the only thing that reliably beats inflation, in every scenario. Gold doesn't. Bonds don't. I don't know about crypto but I avoid because it has no cash flows or physical properties, so I don't know how to value it.

stfu says

My international ETF's continue to suck ass. I don't know where all the ex-US optimism is coming from. They'd have to go on a multi-year +20% tear vs. US ETF's to even get close to catching up to good ole VTI.

Past performance does not guarantee future results, duh.

PS. Yurp is increasing military spending, lifting debt limits and making other stimulative moves. The US is going into opposite direction towards austerity and does it aggresively. This is where Yurp used to be when their market performance lagged ours.

As long as the Fed openly considers or actively cuts rates, the dollar will continue it's decline. If this happens, then gold > $3500 by EOY, and stonks stabilized or mildly increasing.

On the bright side - commiecunt Canada is on sale again at 70 cents to the dollar. Go Globohomo Carney!

For those in the Great Lakes region, get your strippers on sale.

stereotomy says

As long as the Fed openly considers or actively cuts rates, the dollar will continue it's decline. If this happens, then gold > $3500 by EOY, and stonks stabilized or mildly increasing.

On the bright side - commiecunt Canada is on sale again at 70 cents to the dollar. Go Globohomo Carney!

For those in the Great Lakes region, get your strippers on sale.

PCE or annual inflation has been below 3% for the last 12 months, so lets see what happens especially with sanity in the White House in regards particularly to gasoline and egg prices.

I think the housing balloon will continue to slowly let the air out but I expect the floor will be around 25% below all-time-high prices set around mid-2022.

The Fed Funds rate is around 4.5% which is in a good position given annual inflation remains below 3%.

I just don't know if the unemployment rate which has steadied at 4% since January 2022 is a good indicator of the economy's condition.

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AD says

I think the housing balloon will continue to slowly let the air out but I expect the floor will be around 25% below all-time-high prices set around mid-2022.

Agreed but 30%. Then it will be frozen for a decade, like it was in the 60s.

In the 60s, the Greatest already was housed; the Silents were a much smaller generation, and the Boomers were mostly not yet in homebuying ages.

Florida is having net outflow of under 45s due to the well-below average wages but no longer low cost of living.

Demographics can't be stopped, and it'll be more pronounced if mass migration gets under control.

AmericanKulak says

AD says

I think the housing balloon will continue to slowly let the air out but I expect the floor will be around 25% below all-time-high prices set around mid-2022.

Agreed but 30%. Then it will be frozen for a decade, like it was in the 60s.

In the 60s, the Greatest already was housed; the Silents were a much smaller generation, and the Boomers were mostly not yet in homebuying ages.

Florida is having net outflow of under 45s due to the well-below average wages but no longer low cost of living.

Demographics can't be stopped, and it'll be more pronounced if mass migration gets under control.

We bought our brand new townhome for $187000 in 2016 and is about 2 miles from the beach in the Florida panhandle. I figure the all time high price was $330,000 so a 30% cut is $231,000.

The same townhome was selling for $240,000 in May 2020, so that essentially wipes out the COVID gain :-(

I'm okay our townhome being frozen in price as we are paying about $450 per month toward principal for the mortgage and have about $148,000 as a mortgage balance.

It will benefit working class families with household income increasing 2% annually while housing prices (and interest rates) are frozen.

As far as Florida demographics, I heard on Coast to Coast AM right now a demographics expert saying the peak of baby boomers were born around 1960 to 1962, so they still be moving to Florida at retirement age 65 to 70 within the next few years or so.

Also I noticed a lot more Hispanics and Latinos in the Florida panhandle with a lot of Cuban restaurants starting up. And I noticed diversification of the economy in the Florida panhandle.

Also I hear on Coast to Coast AM now about population decline and less labor, but what about productivity gains such as through robotics and automation to compensate for this ?

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AD says

As far as Florida demographics, I heard on Coast to Coast AM right now a demographics expert saying the peak of baby boomers were born around 1960 to 1962, so they still be moving to Florida at retirement age 65 to 70 within the next few years or so.

That ship has sailed. Boomers that can retire already did. And if they wanted to move they already did. Anyone government wise (Cops, Firefighters, teachers, etc.) retires around 60 or even earlier. Private sector if you haven't retired, you're going to work until you're 80 or can't work anymore. You aren't moving except into assisted living facilities.

That's the reason FL had a boom there for a hot minute. Fortunately any mortgages should be solid and a lot were all cash purchases. I think a 20-30% drop in FL would be extreme, but I don't know the build rate down there. Most builders around here do it by contract, not just build it and they will come. Not sure how FL operates.

Stocks seem to be doing OK today despite the tariffs kicking in.

HeadSet says

Stocks seem to be doing OK today despite the tariffs kicking in.

Tariff announcement is scheduled for 1pm PT. Nobody knows nothing until then.

WOW, the shit is tanking after hours.

WookieMan says

AD says
As far as Florida demographics, I heard on Coast to Coast AM right now a demographics expert saying the peak of baby boomers were born around 1960 to 1962, so they still be moving to Florida at retirement age 65 to 70 within the next few years or so.

That ship has sailed. Boomers that can retire already did. And if they wanted to move they already did. Anyone government wise (Cops, Firefighters, teachers, etc.) retires around 60 or even earlier. Private sector if you haven't retired, you're going to work until you're 80 or can't work anymore. You aren't moving except into assisted living facilities.

In Florida they build on speculation because at least 80% of new homes are in HOAs (single detached homes, townhomes and condos), or are rental apartment complexes.

They stopped construction on "Hathaway Luxury Apartments" (owned by RD Offutt Company a North Dakota agriculture company) in Panama City Beach after they broke ground around June 2024.

The large apartment complexes on the beach may collude via Real Page app on rent prices, but its hard to control the plethora of townhome rentals on the beach, which are renting near 2021 price levels.

I see still those born 1960 and later who are retiring as teachers, firemen and police from the Democrat shitholes like Illinois and New Jersey moving down to Florida with their hefty pensions and selling their $850,000 bungalows to buy a brand new $425,000 home in Panama City or nearby Lynn Haven.

The Florida panhandle is becoming a haven for retirees on public pensions.
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Eric Holder says

WOW, the shit is tanking after hours.

Where? I am seeing stocks rise.

HeadSet says

Eric Holder says

WOW, the shit is tanking after hours.

Where? I am seeing stocks rise.

Huh? Are you sure you are looking at the after hours quotes and not the numbers at close?

RWSGFY says

Huh? Are you sure you are looking at the after hours quotes and not the numbers at close?

yeah Trump's 4 pm Eastern Standard Time press conference on tariffs should not have been a surprise as even Amazon was down at least 5% in after hours trading today

the prices already factored in Trump's tariff announcements, so it seems like an extreme overreaction

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RWSGFY says

re you sure you are looking at the after hours quotes and not the numbers at close?

I was looking at numbers at close. I thought my spreadsheet updated after hours but apparently not.

AD says

it seems like an extreme overreaction

Could mean great buying opportunity.

AD says

the prices already factored in Trump's tariff announcements, so it seems like an extreme overreaction

If they were factored in there won't be any stock movement, but there was. The announced tariffs were definitely higher than what every pundit was predicting for the last weeks.

Eric Holder says

AD says

the prices already factored in Trump's tariff announcements, so it seems like an extreme overreaction

If they were factored in there won't be any stock movement, but there was. The announced tariffs were definitely higher than what every pundit was predicting for the last weeks.

Theoretically yes, in a highly efficient market then it should be fully priced in

But yes, I think Trump announced new tariffs at today's conference that was a surprise to many

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-04-02/trump-reciprocal-tariffs

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Gold is north of $3150 right now. See you later stonks.

stereotomy says

Gold is north of $3150 right now. See you later stonks.

I have stocks, real estate and cash, but no gold or bitcoin. I would hate to see gold and bitcoin be something I should have bought.

stereotomy says

Gold is north of $3150 right now. See you later stonks.

Gold should go up with inflation or the threat of inflation. I suspect the gold bugs or gold traders are forecasting higher inflation (because of the tariffs, deficit spending, etc).

Birdbrain Biden's 2023 deficit was $1.65 trillion and 2024 deficit was $1.9 trillion. I am hoping the fiscal year 2025 deficit is no more than 3% greater than the 2024 deficit.

Inflation Adjusted Gold Prices Chart , note spike in gold prices during Carter admin and then gradual decline in gold prices from 1981 to 2000, which was a boom period for "growth stocks"



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There must still be a relative oversupply or glut of silver as it is way below its inflation-adjusted and all time high price set around 1980.

Silver is found at a higher rate than gold, so maybe that explains it.

Patrick says

Silver is found at a higher rate than gold, so maybe that explains it.

Hopefully for silver bugs there is a significant increase in industrial applications of silver.

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