patrick.net

wth!!! everything up like we found gold or something

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

wth!!! everything up like we found gold or something

what do you all forecast for tomorrow and Friday ?

so if AMZN and GOOGL went up 10% each, will the drop a few percentage between Thursday open and Friday close as traders and hedge funds cash out their gains ?

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Looks like today's close for the S&P 500 will finish in the top 20

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_S%26P_500_Index

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trumps tariffs drive the markets down...(lots of hand wringing and panic)
trumps tariffs drive the markets up (silence)

Every finance bro today looks like the panican follower-retard they are

I just checked Yahoo Finance main page and futures right now

S&P 500: - 0.7%
Nasdaq: -1.48%
Gold: +1.97%

Bitcoin is cooling off now also.

AMZN was up almost 12% today and I wonder if it will cool off by this Friday's closing. GOOGL also was up about 10% today.

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AD says

RWSGFY says

We could've gradually rolled out protectionists measures over a year or two w/o drama

you mean the drama created by the media to defame trump?

AD says

RWSGFY says

We could've gradually rolled out protectionists measures over a year or two w/o drama

you mean the drama created by the media to defame trump?AmericanKulak says

Every finance bro today looks like the panican follower-retard they are

probably because they are retards and also the people who can't think for themselves and listen to them

On the one hand, maybe Trump bowed to the pressure from panicked stockholders.

On the other, he made his point well enough: other countries can find their access to the US cut off at any time and should start producing here.

Similar to how we found out during the scamdemic that we should not have outsourced all our antibiotic production to China because the Chinese can cut it off at any time.

That's what I like to see a strong sense of conviction. - giggle

komputodo says

AD says

RWSGFY says

We could've gradually rolled out protectionists measures over a year or two w/o drama

you mean the drama created by the media to defame trump?

Yes all the drama no matter who created it. That's the beauty of proper diplomacy and closed-door negotiations: your enemies don't get the chance to create drama, don't get a chance to consolidate positions, etc., etc. Basic stuff really.

As it stands now Donnie was forced to climb down by all the drama in the markets and in the Congress, that's a fact.

RWSGFY says

That's the beauty of proper diplomacy and closed-door negotiations: your enemies don't get the chance to create drama, don't get a chance to consolidate positions, etc., etc. Basic stuff really.

As it stands now Donnie was forced to climb down by all the drama in the markets and in the Congress, that's a fact.

the media doesn't need facts to create drama...They just make it up as they go...closed doors or not.. Now the new narrative...Trump was forced by the media and congress to do something.. And you call it a fact because they said so.

Patrick says

On the other, he made his point well enough: other countries can find their access to the US cut off at any time and should start producing here.

Yes.. that's how winners negotiate... You don't actually have to do anything. Just the thought that you might do something in many cases is enough. Trump doesn't bow.

Some questions I have. Why did the Trump threat of tariffs cause a massive sell of of equities like the MSM says? There are lots of stockholders on Patnet. When you first heard of Trumps threat of tariffs, did you guys immediately dump your stocks? And if so, are you glad now that you did?

komputodo says

RWSGFY says

That's the beauty of proper diplomacy and closed-door negotiations: your enemies don't get the chance to create drama, don't get a chance to consolidate positions, etc., etc. Basic stuff really.

As it stands now Donnie was forced to climb down by all the drama in the markets and in the Congress, that's a fact.

the media doesn't need facts to create drama...They just make it up as they go...closed doors or not..

I disagree: one thing is to run around and scream that the sky is falling while nothing is happening and another is to do the same while market is cratering and senators are raging in hearings.

And I find the idea that one needs to crash his own markets in order to get the counterparty's attention slightly retarded. It does not make one's position stronger.

There were many who thought that the stock market was "overvalued" , a "bubble." They had been predicting a "crash" for many months previous to Trump announcing tariffs.

So, maybe the tariffs were the pin which popped this "bubble".

My investments are largely mutual funds which I don't sell. I own a lot of shares of Apple stock, but I would not sell them either.

There are those who sell after a big gain, and later buy in when things are low; I don't know who they are but they probably do this for a living somewhere.

RWSGFY says

And I find the idea that one needs to crash his own markets in order to get the counterparty's attention slightly retarded. It does not make one's position stronger.

So you still think Trump crashed the markets? Not the market makers with help from the media for another trillion dollar wealth transfer from the suckers?
If people weren't glued to their screens 24/7 and out of contact for the last week, they wouldn't even know that anything happened in the markets and saved themselves a lot of hand wringing and panic.
And as far as making his position stronger, the media were all on the bandwagon blaming it on trump but now that it's back to normal, have you heard anything positive from the media about Trump?

Yes, I think that the unforced error with using stupid formula and plugging wrong values into it instead of following the 2025 plan on reciprocal tariffs did crash the markets.

That botched rollout is indefensible and didn't add anything positive to the process, but lots of negative

My opinion, fuck media.

komputodo says

RWSGFY says
And I find the idea that one needs to crash his own markets in order to get the counterparty's attention slightly retarded. It does not make one's position stronger.

So you still think Trump crashed the markets? Not the market makers with help from the media for another trillion dollar wealth transfer from the suckers?
If people weren't glued to their screens 24/7 and out of contact for the last week, they wouldn't even know that anything happened in the markets and saved themselves a lot of hand wringing and panic.
And as far as making his position stronger, the media were all on the bandwagon blaming it on trump but now that it's back to normal, have you heard anything positive from the media about Trump?

I tend to agree with this. The route to where we are going is not the smoothest, but most people don't even know what's going on.

I don't know, I live in a town with 800 homes and for the first time in 2 decades 30 new homes are going up. There's confidence in the on the ground market. A freak out of 5 days in the stock market is a nothing burger when 50% of people own nothing in it. It's all big firms and idiots with a lot of money freaking out.

If you lived through the tech crash in the early 2000's and the housing crash, the market ultimately rebounds. Also the sell off might have been retired boomers that still had stocks and moved into safer avenues of investment in retirement years saying it's not worth it staying in the game with these tariffs, which is fine. New jobs have no impact on retirees. They don't want to work. So they get out of the game.

clambo says

So, maybe the tariffs were the pin which popped this "bubble".

And what was the TAPE that sealed the leak and reinflated the bubble?

The tape was probably the 90 day "grace period" delaying many tariffs.

Many believe it's still a bubble so they'll sell again and others will buy, etc.

WookieMan says

I live in a town with 800 homes and for the first time in 2 decades 30 new homes are going up.

I understand that there is basically no inventory in your area. I don't understand how that could happen there though.

Patrick says

On the one hand, maybe Trump bowed to the pressure from panicked stockholders.

On the other, he made his point well enough: other countries can find their access to the US cut off at any time and should start producing here.

Similar to how we found out during the scamdemic that we should not have outsourced all our antibiotic production to China because the Chinese can cut it off at any time.

Trump is a lot about fanfare and he learned this from Roy Cohn not his father.

A lot of what he does as far as his supporters and voting base is like throwing red meat to a hungry lion; think about particularly the demographic of household income from $40K to $70K who watch Newsmax and read the NY Post.

I am hoping for stability of the markets and economy, that Trump achieves such gains as below and naturally gives his customary victory speeches along the way.

+increasing manufacturing jobs from 10% of total jobs to at least 15% within the next 18 months
+keeping the 2025 deficit at or below Birdbrain Biden's 2024 deficit
+realizing a 2025 trade deficit that is at least 10% below the average of the 2023 and 2024 trade deficit

Trump should set up the equivalent of federal government owned labs as far as manufacturing that is national security related such as antibiotics, critical electronics, medical equipment, etc

Put the Defense Health Agency in charge of the critical healthcare manufacturing centers.

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komputodo says

Some questions I have. Why did the Trump threat of tariffs cause a massive sell of of equities like the MSM says? There are lots of stockholders on Patnet. When you first heard of Trumps threat of tariffs, did you guys immediately dump your stocks? And if so, are you glad now that you did?

Stocks fell for two reasons :

1. Profits largely depend on producing in low-wage countries and selling here, fucking US workers. Now there is fear that US workers will have to be hired, cutting into profits.

2. US companies that still do manufacturing depend on foreign parts, which suddenly got more expensive.

I didn't sell because I never sell. My conclusion from five years of trading long ago is that it's impossible to time the market without inside info.

Soviets are having a good time at Donnie's expense:



RT is a government media, in case anybody forgotten. How's that "reverse Nixon" going on?

komputodo says

When you first heard of Trumps threat of tariffs, did you guys immediately dump your stocks?

No. I did not think stocks would fall like they did, and I think stocks will recover over the next few weeks. I was wrong about the fall, so I hope I am right about the recovery.

zzyzzx says

I understand that there is basically no inventory in your area. I don't understand how that could happen there though.

Everyone fled that was broke and thinking the grass was greener on the other side. Might be, but 100% wouldn't be for us.

A lot of my buddies fled to CO, MT, FL, TX, etc and they're all broke. You can make the same money in any state today. Rural IL is cheap and I'm 1 hour from an airport, so I can leave when I want. Or 10 minutes if my buddy wants to fly regionally. Jet or single engine.

Story is they all left and builders just stopped building. No existing inventory due to low interest rates. Builders here see profit and they're right. So they build baby shit shacks and make $30-50k a house.

I'm copy pasting this from Financology.net. This is Finster's explanation for what happened in the last two weeks:

https://financology.net/2025/04/10/volatility-2

First thing is to realize is that currency is a security like any other. It goes up and down. But we don’t see those daily movements directly because we use currency itself as the pricing unit. We only see them through the prices of other things.

Currency goes down, it takes more of it to buy the same stuff. Prices rise. Currency goes up, it takes less of it to buy the same stuff. Prices fall.

Currency is also like any other security in that it can experience a short squeeze. You’re familiar with what happens when that happens to a stock. Too much short interest, and even a small gain prompts people to buy to cover their shorts. This is a surge in demand for the stock caused by people needing to acquire it to repay the stock they borrowed, causing the value of the stock to surge.

What happens when there is too much currency sold short? The same thing. Demand for the currency surges as people need to acquire it to cover their short positions. It’s really very simple, but not so obvious because we use different terminology for it. We call a short position in currency “debt”.

Another obstacle created by our terminology is that when most things are going down, we call it a bear market. When they’re going up, we call it a bull market. But when currency is in a bear market, we give it a completely different name: inflation. When it’s in a bull market, we call it deflation. This gives the impression that something different is going on compared to when any other security falls or rises. But it’s the same familiar thing, just given a different name that obscures its similarity.

Another blind spot of conventional economics is looking at money supply, but not money demand. With all due respect to the great Milton Friedman, it’s Econ 101. Supply and demand.

So deflation is just a rise in the value of the currency created by rising demand for it as people who owe it try to acquire it to cover their short positions … to repay their debt. This occurs system wide, but an obvious example is brokerage account margin calls. If the Fed dithers and fails to timely match the demand increase with an increase in supply, the only thing that can happen to the market value of the currency is rise. The Fed’s main error though is usually in failing to reverse the supply increase when the demand increase fades, producing more inflation and sowing the seeds for the next crisis.

Years of inflation persuade people that currency can only go down. Massive short positions (debt) build up. Then when money tightens a bit, it can trigger a short squeeze. This happened in 2008, it happened on a smaller scale in 2020, and I believe it’s happening now. It’s noteworthy that each of these three instances followed an inversion and uninversion of the yield curve, as the Fed belatedly tried to reverse its earlier inflationary excess.

The ultimate cause of deflation? Seemingly paradoxically, it’s inflation. The Fed creates inflation (bear market in currency) by expanding supply via lending money into existence. As the debt builds to excess, it provides the tinder for a short squeeze, that is, deflation (bull market in currency).

Interesting to note that this morning’s March CPI confirmed a softening in consumer price increases. All prior to April 2. I don’t want to make too much of it, because changes in the value of the currency only gradually make their way through the pricing chain to consumer prices. They show up first in asset markets, where things reprice in real time, tick by tick.

I’ve tried to keep this as brief as possible in order to not make it appear complicated. It’s only because the language of conventional economics is inadequate that it’s as long as it is. If I’ve left any gaps please call them to my attention and I’ll try to fill them.

WookieMan says

zzyzzx says

I understand that there is basically no inventory in your area. I don't understand how that could happen there though.

Everyone fled that was broke and thinking the grass was greener on the other side. Might be, but 100% wouldn't be for us.

A lot of my buddies fled to CO, MT, FL, TX, etc and they're all broke. You can make the same money in any state today. Rural IL is cheap and I'm 1 hour from an airport, so I can leave when I want. Or 10 minutes if my buddy wants to fly regionally. Jet or single engine.

Story is they all left and builders just stopped building. No existing inventory due to low interest rates. Builders here see profit and they're right. So they build baby shit shacks and make $30-50k a house.

Illinois has always been a Democrat shithole so there is generally an exodus and less demand for more housing.

I'm not sure as far as taxes (property, sales and income taxes) even for those in rural Illinois which obviously is more Republican than Chicago metro area.

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Ouch. Let's see what Monday brings.

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S&P 500 real (i.e., inflation adjusted) return since June 2021 has been nearly 0%

https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500

From March 2000 to October 2014 the real return was 0%.

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I read various sites like Seeking Alpha and conducted a Google Gemini AI query, and it looks like Google would lose 10% of its revenue if today's court ruling still stands. So its not catastrophic to Google and the company continues to diversify such as cloud services, Google Play, and hardware.

And Google stock is already down about 25% from its recent all time high, and its stock price is at November 2021 levels.

AD says

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S&P 500 real (i.e., inflation adjusted) return since June 2021 has been nearly 0%

https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500

From March 2000 to October 2014 the real return was 0%.

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but inflation is massive, that’s why investing works. and inflation always gets a bailout by our government.

The Trump rout is taking on historic dimensions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed almost 1,000 points on Monday and is headed for its worst April performance since 1932, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500’s performance since Inauguration Day is now the worst for any president up to this point in data going back to 1928, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

RWSGFY says

The Trump rout is taking on historic dimensions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed almost 1,000 points on Monday and is headed for its worst April performance since 1932, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500’s performance since Inauguration Day is now the worst for any president up to this point in data going back to 1928, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

The top 10% own about 93% of the stock market and account for 50% of consumer spending. I believe the administration believes by reducing asset inflation, then consumer demand from the top 10% will decline thereby reducing inflation.

This could mean less speculation for investment housing (including AirBnB's) which partially caused the housing bubble.

Time to go international?

US equity ETFs saw net outflows of $3.6 billion last week while developed international markets attracted above-average inflows totaling $3 billion, according to JPMorgan.

AD says

I believe the administration believes

The administration seems to belive in lots of asinine shit like "crashing stonks brings rates down" or "surrendering at the start of negotiations leads to a great deal" which doesn't exactly work out when meets with reality. 🤡

from Google Gemini AI :

what is the volatility skew for Amzn this week ?

As of today, Tuesday, April 22, 2025, the volatility skew for Amazon (AMZN) options shows a typical pattern where implied volatility for put options (lower strike prices) is generally higher than that of call options (higher strike prices). This indicates a higher demand for downside protection compared to upside speculation.

Here's a more detailed breakdown based on available data:

Near-Term Skew (April 25th Expiration): Market Chameleon data indicates that for the April 25th expiration, the 25-delta put skew is +7.6%, while the 25-delta call skew is -8.4%. This positive put skew and negative call skew confirm the higher implied volatility for near-the-money put options compared to similar delta call options.
Historical Put-Call Spread: Looking at the one-year history of the 25-delta put implied volatility minus the 25-delta call implied volatility, Market Chameleon shows the following for this week:
April 22nd: +3.2%
April 23rd: +3.5%
April 24th: +3.0%
April 25th: +3.5%
April 26th: +2.8% This consistently positive spread further illustrates the higher implied volatility for put options across the week. The latest 20-day average for this put-call spread is +8.5%, while the 250-day average is +2.4%. This suggests that the current skew is less pronounced than the recent 20-day average but still significantly favors higher put implied volatility compared to the longer-term average.

* In simpler terms, the options market is pricing in a greater probability and/or impact of negative price movements for Amazon's stock in the near term compared to positive movements. This could be influenced by factors such as the upcoming earnings announcement expected around April 29th or May 1st, 2025, where investors often seek more downside protection. *