patrick.net

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The S&P 500's low during today's trading was 4835 which is 21.3% below the all time high of 6147. So technically are we in a bear market ?

What surprises me is S&P 500 futures is up now 1.65% :-/

From Fox Business News tonight: "CNBC issues on-air correction after pushing viral falsehood about Trump tariff 'pause'
White House called reports of Trump considering a 90-day pause on tariffs 'fake news' "

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AmericanKulak says

Fuck Bill Clinton and MFN and WTO for China.

Exactly, a big F You to Bill Clinton and this is worth repeating

"The American people support this agreement because they know it's good for jobs in America . And good for human rights. And the development of democracy in China."
Bill Clinton, 10 October 2000
https://www.c-span.org/program/white-house-event/trade-relations-with-china-bill-signing/105973

CNN fear and greed index is at extreme fear and the VIX is off the charts almost , is there going to be whiplash in the market and the VIX is going to crash down toward 20 ? Right now S&P 500 futures up 1.44%

MolotovCocktail says

Insane. Twice the median income for a work truck.

AmericanKulak says

Insane. Twice the median income for a work truck.

I paid about $12,000 out the door for an extended cab GMC Sonoma in 1995.

I think the closest to this is the Chevy Colorado or GMC Canyon and I would guess they sell for $35,000.

$12,000 in 1995 is equal to $29,000 in today's dollars based on a 3% annual appreciation rate.

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AD says

3% annual appreciation rate.

I'm not sure I would call it an appreciation rate..

Somehow I'm still not worried about the stock market.

Maybe this is all rigged as another kind of assassination attempt on Trump. After all the virus and vaxx bullshit, I think pretty much everything is fake and gay now. So it wouldn't surprise me if the people who arranged the virus release to crush Trump's excellent economy the first time around have simply changed tactics.

But the stock market is definitely not the economy, so I don't think it's going to dent Trump's support much. Trump just has to show truly significant manufacturing job growth before midterms and he wins.

if stocks return to pre crash level let's say in a month or so, what group were the winners and what group were the losers?

komputodo says

AD says
3% annual appreciation rate.

I'm not sure I would call it an appreciation rate..

That is true, I should have wrote based on time value of money the future value of $12,000 in 1995 is about $29,000 in 2025 based on a discount rate of 3%.

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komputodo says

if stocks return to pre crash level let's say in a month or so, what group were the winners and what group were the losers?

The people who were on margin and forced to sell are generally the big losers.

Patrick says

Maybe this is all rigged as another kind of assassination attempt on Trump. After all the virus and vaxx bullshit, I think pretty much everything is fake and gay now. So it wouldn't surprise me if the people who arranged the virus release to crush Trump's excellent economy the first time around have simply changed tactics.

But the stock market is definitely not the economy, so I don't think it's going to dent Trump's support much. Trump just has to show truly significant manufacturing job growth before midterms and he wins.

I think there's already been a substantial corner turn in mentality. A lot of investors want to see new opportunities, and there's plenty of investment and financing opportunities in REshoring US Industry back.

AmericanKulak says

MolotovCocktail says

Insane. Twice the median income for a work truck.

Anything with Platinum in the name is not a work truck.

RWSGFY says

AmericanKulak says

MolotovCocktail says

Insane. Twice the median income for a work truck.

Anything with Platinum in the name is not a work truck.

Not really a work truck either if you do actual work. That's a small penis truck and a nice infotainment system with heated seats and steering wheel. Have fun paying $50k over the real value.

About half of the people own a retirement account; less than half pay Federal Income Tax.

They will benefit from tariffs and other measures to help American workers.

What the stock market does each day only matters to the talking shitheads on MSNBC, CNBC, CNN, etc.

Deporting foreign workers helps American workers of course.

I'm surprised how astute Trump is on these matters.

Stonks up today ~1.5%. Wall Street will survive just as it did in the era of Zenith and Sears.

A negative skew suggests that the market is expecting a downward price movement.

Keep an eye on GOOGL until expiration this Friday's closing.

AmericanKulak says

Stonks up today ~1.5%.

This did not age well.

What was the point of negotiating tariffs out in the open again? Why this shitstorm in the US stonk market was necessary?

clambo says

About half of the people own a retirement account; less than half pay Federal Income Tax.

They will benefit from tariffs and other measures to help American workers.

What the stock market does each day only matters to the talking shitheads on MSNBC, CNBC, CNN, etc.

Deporting foreign workers helps American workers of course.

I'm surprised how astute Trump is on these matters.

Top 10% of American households own 93% of the stock market according to a recent Yahoo Finance article.

I agree as far as why Trump does not care as the top 10% don't mind paying $6 for a dozen eggs or $4 a gallon at the gas pump, nor do they have to have roommates in order to afford rent.

Also I surmise at best 40% of the top 10% of households voted for Trump. The top 10% represent everyone from the over-educated smug hipsters and soyboys (including working as GS 14's/GS-15's at EPA, State Dept, DOJ, etc) to the Soros and Bezos crowd.

It will be interesting to see how inflation fares, but Bloomberg TV was promoting fear last night when it had one headline that said stagflation is very likely.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tax-cuts-tariffs-top-50-percent-own-almost-all-wealth/

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Eric Holder says

What was the point of negotiating tariffs out in the open again? Why this shitstorm in the US stonk market was necessary?

Who is making $$$ from this volatility ?

One thing for sure is to follow who is buying short duration or weekly calls

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The $30K to $50K likely don't own stocks or very little. They are the ones who struggle to pay rent and buy eggs and gas.

From today's Yahoo Finance as JP Morgan cut 12 month forecasts for 25 internet-related stocks

The bank reduced its price target on Meta to $610 from $725 while it cut its price target on AMZN to $220 from $270.

JPMorgan lowered its price target on Alphabet to $180 from $220, while cutting its price target on NFLX to $1,025 from $1,150.

AD says

Who is making $$$ from this volatility ?

Slutnick.

Right now the S&P 500 futures is down 2% to 4900. That is 20.3% below the all time high for the S&P 500, hence the start of a bear market.

I think it dropped 20% in October 2022 but the media downplayed as well as claimed we were not in a recession during Birdbrain Biden's administration; it and dropped about 35% in April 2020, 57% in 2009, and 58% in 2002.

Do you Pat net members think the S&P 500 will close at or below 4900 this week ?

Eric Holder says

AD says

Who is making $$$ from this volatility ?

Slutnick.

And MTG was caught with a hand in the cookie jar.

Misc says

The people who were on margin and forced to sell are generally the big losers.

EXACTLY

komputodo says

Misc says

The people who were on margin and forced to sell are generally the big losers.

EXACTLY

Margin is da devil.

But stagflation/recession is not fun regadless. Even for these 38% of poor devils who don't even own any stonks. And I continue to argue that the whole Orange Monday was stupid, unnecessary and self inflicted. We could've gradually rolled out protectionists measures over a year or two w/o drama, inflation and S/R/D words entering the conversation. And the risk of blue wave in the midterms.

And "divide and conquer" usually yields better results than "fight everybody everywhere at the same time".

RWSGFY says

We could've gradually rolled out protectionists measures over a year or two w/o drama

Trump is playing like he has to rush these in because there is not enough time left.

Perhaps Trump wants to solidify these changes this years so by 2029 that they would be almost impossible to undo if a Democrat is in the White House.

But I think Biden kept Trump's tariffs on China.

I think China has protectionist ways that hurt America exporters to China. I wish Trump or at least his Treasurer and Commerce Secretaries state them publicly.

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Eric Holder says

AD says

Who is making $$$ from this volatility ?

Slutnick.

Rigged and collusion going on

I saw 2 days ago those very high premiums for AMZN and GOOGL calls that expire this week and am not surprised they popped today

I doubt this rally will sustain as its the hedge funds making the gains, and doubt Warren Buffett bought in

Eric Holder says

Why this shitstorm in the US stonk market was necessary?

how else are the 1%ers going do another wealth transfer from the suckers?

"I told you not to be a PANICAN and to HODL" - Trump

"ReeEEEEeee, I sold! I'm going to perish!" - Whingey RINO Investors

wth!!! everything up like we found gold or something

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

wth!!! everything up like we found gold or something

what do you all forecast for tomorrow and Friday ?

so if AMZN and GOOGL went up 10% each, will the drop a few percentage between Thursday open and Friday close as traders and hedge funds cash out their gains ?

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Looks like today's close for the S&P 500 will finish in the top 20

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_S%26P_500_Index

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trumps tariffs drive the markets down...(lots of hand wringing and panic)
trumps tariffs drive the markets up (silence)

Every finance bro today looks like the panican follower-retard they are

I just checked Yahoo Finance main page and futures right now

S&P 500: - 0.7%
Nasdaq: -1.48%
Gold: +1.97%

Bitcoin is cooling off now also.

AMZN was up almost 12% today and I wonder if it will cool off by this Friday's closing. GOOGL also was up about 10% today.

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AD says

RWSGFY says

We could've gradually rolled out protectionists measures over a year or two w/o drama

you mean the drama created by the media to defame trump?