patrick.net

zzyzzx says

More panic selling this morning.

Oh well unless you're old. Even then you shouldn't have been in stocks if you're retired or you have FU money.

I still think it's an overreaction and it will run at some point this week. Factor in margin calls where stocks have to be sold to cover the loan. Once the dust settles and the highly leveraged people are forced to sell off I think it comes back up.

March 16th, 2020 at 9:47am

HeadSet says

RWSGFY says

Brought to you by the author of "covfefe".

More likely it is bogus.

Could be. But there are lots of mentions of him saying that if market is tanking the POTUS is not doing his job right going back as far as 2012. Was his twatter history wiped out when he was banned in 2020 or not?

PS. Are we fact-checking shit now? What are we, demon rats?

komputodo says

What is casino in this context? Elections?

the manipulated stock market...where is the PPT ( plunge protection team)?

komputodo says

komputodo says

What is casino in this context? Elections?

the manipulated stock market...where is the PPT ( plunge protection team)?

Manipulated how? The fall was absolutely commesurate with the news. (Too mild, even) The market did expect normal reciprocal tariffs, what it got was some unapplicable formula by some obscure scientist, calculated with wrong values substituted into it, which effectively increased the resulting numbers 4x. Are you implying the idiocy was intentional and not just Lutnick or Navaro being regular stupid cunts? We need to check their trades then.

I'm not familiar with the plunge protection metrics - my WAG would be the criteria for stopping trading
weren't satisfied.

RWSGFY says

Manipulated how?

from investopedia: theorists have speculated that the PPT group executes trades on several exchanges when prices are heading downward, collaborating with big banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley in unrecorded transactions. They often point to a 1989 speech published in The Wall Street Journal by former Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Robert Heller, which suggested the Fed could directly support the stock market by purchasing index futures contracts.
How the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) Might Work
On Monday, February 5, 2018, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experienced a drop that was twice as large as its biggest point decline in history. However, arbitrary and aggressive buying cut the decline in half in one day. On Tuesday and Wednesday of that week, stocks opened lower, and each time aggressive buying buoyed the markets. That aggressive buying, some say, was being orchestrated by the Plunge Protection Team.

Well, they probably stepped in today: everybody expected another Black Monday and early it looked like we'd have one, but the shit bounced.

The funny (and sad) part is the economy is now fucking married to that formula complete with wrong values plugged into it, unless somebody could persuade Donnie to climb down from that tree. For now I can't think of anybody. Kushner, maybe?

If only there was a method to avoid such fuckups... Like doing it through Congress, allowing for public comment period between rolling the shit out and it going into effect, etc.

But nooo, we are in an e-mehr-gen-cey!

It's not really a loss until you sell:

DeportLibtards says

It's not really a loss until you sell:

And when you have to sell because of a margin call?

RWSGFY says

The funny (and sad) part is the economy is now fucking married to that formula complete with wrong values plugged into it, unless somebody could persuade Donnie to climb down from that tree. For now I can't think of anybody. Kushner, maybe?

If only there was a method to avoid such fuckups... Like doing it through Congress, allowing for public comment period between rolling the shit out and it going into effect, etc.

But nooo, we are in an e-mehr-gen-cey!

The problem is that nobody has the will to stop kicking the can...so the economy will never truly recover. It will keep needing stimulus.

komputodo says

DeportLibtards says

It's not really a loss until you sell:

And when you have to sell because of a margin call?

That falls under 'until you sell', yes.

Just like how some dudes blow their wad mere seconds after the BJ starts while others can hold out until the girl starts to complain about getting tired, individual results will vary.

WookieMan says

Even then you shouldn't have been in stocks if you're retired or you have FU money.

Not necessarily. I can see your point with the retired folks moving out of growth stocks, but some folks have a collection of dividend paying stocks that supplement retirement income. These will never be sold so the occasional dip is of little concern. In my case, I have over 50 different dividend paying stocks that collectively pay thousands per month (varies with payout dates) and will be passed on to the kid. Cool benefit with passing on stocks (outside of an IRA) is that the basis resets so any capital gains should the kid sell would be based on the value when inherited, not originally bought.

komputodo says

RWSGFY says

The funny (and sad) part is the economy is now fucking married to that formula complete with wrong values plugged into it, unless somebody could persuade Donnie to climb down from that tree. For now I can't think of anybody. Kushner, maybe?

If only there was a method to avoid such fuckups... Like doing it through Congress, allowing for public comment period between rolling the shit out and it going into effect, etc.

But nooo, we are in an e-mehr-gen-cey!

The problem is that nobody has the will to stop kicking the can...so the economy will never truly recover. It will keep needing stimulus.

How does this justify using half-baked formulas with wrong values in the denominator? The urgency of change is there, but it's not "we've got mere days to live" kind of urgency. The political runway is 12/4/2 years long (best/medium/worst case) and spending a week or two on deliberation and double-checking the numbers and formulas and then 1-2 months on actual negotiations with trade partners and then giving businesses deadlines a year-year-and-half out is only prudent. If anything, this kind of botched roll-out could've shortend the said runway because the risk of stagflation increased and that shit is very hard to get out of. And it gave the demon rats a rallying cry "remember when they killed your 401k!!!". Looks like an unforced error.

PS. Turns out Lutnick has a MAJOR conflict of interest as his firm benefits bigly from stonks crashing and burning, so the haphazard roll-out could've been intentional on his part.

PPS. Even fucking demon rats gave carmakers ample warning and more or less clear roadmap wrt, for example, CAFE and EV mandates. This shit with tariffs is akin to Potato issuing an EO saying that all cars for sale in the US must be EVs starting 6 days from the date of the order.

Trump has been talking tariffs for decades and certainly extensively on the campaign trail AND during the preparation prior to office and in his first two months in office.

Let Wall Street howl, they've had it their own way for 30+ years, trillions in auto & bank & airline bailouts, PPTs, etc. etc.

It's Main Street's turn.

This is "SHOCK Main Street". If Wall Street shock capitalism was good for the Soviet Union, then Shock Economic Nationalism is good for Wall Street.

I'm glad Trump is shocking Wall Street, less time to Bullshit and Sabotage and put up baloney numbers and lies from the Tax Foundation, CATO, etc.

Literally nobody is crying about this except CNBC, MSNBC, and people who think the stock market is the entire Economy and should never be permitted to go down.

The time for patience and reasonableness has passed. Wall Street never reciprocated jack shit, never moderated, only demanded maximum outsourcing, minimal tariff, and maximal deficits with no holds barred or delays, so fuck 'em. It'll be great when the Longhouse Matriarchs are purged from many businesses, the Carly Fiorina and Marissa Mayers. As well as buffons like Dave Calhoun (Former CEO of Boeing who railed against "White Male Engineers" and their persnickity safety and quality concerns).

Fuck Bill Clinton and MFN and WTO for China.

https://youtu.be/zQ7HJBvH-Sk?si=uVkxnu7vZCffflJC

And fuck Bush, too. They rammed our P-3 over international waters and instead of cratering Hainan in response, Bush grovelled and let the Chinese gut and copy all the sensors and equipment because Wall Street put offshoring ahead of National Security as always. Bush went over to lick Beijing Balls THREE TIMES while in office.

BIG BEAUTIFUL TARIFFS for China.

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The S&P 500's low during today's trading was 4835 which is 21.3% below the all time high of 6147. So technically are we in a bear market ?

What surprises me is S&P 500 futures is up now 1.65% :-/

From Fox Business News tonight: "CNBC issues on-air correction after pushing viral falsehood about Trump tariff 'pause'
White House called reports of Trump considering a 90-day pause on tariffs 'fake news' "

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AmericanKulak says

Fuck Bill Clinton and MFN and WTO for China.

Exactly, a big F You to Bill Clinton and this is worth repeating

"The American people support this agreement because they know it's good for jobs in America . And good for human rights. And the development of democracy in China."
Bill Clinton, 10 October 2000
https://www.c-span.org/program/white-house-event/trade-relations-with-china-bill-signing/105973

CNN fear and greed index is at extreme fear and the VIX is off the charts almost , is there going to be whiplash in the market and the VIX is going to crash down toward 20 ? Right now S&P 500 futures up 1.44%

MolotovCocktail says

Insane. Twice the median income for a work truck.

AmericanKulak says

Insane. Twice the median income for a work truck.

I paid about $12,000 out the door for an extended cab GMC Sonoma in 1995.

I think the closest to this is the Chevy Colorado or GMC Canyon and I would guess they sell for $35,000.

$12,000 in 1995 is equal to $29,000 in today's dollars based on a 3% annual appreciation rate.

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AD says

3% annual appreciation rate.

I'm not sure I would call it an appreciation rate..

Somehow I'm still not worried about the stock market.

Maybe this is all rigged as another kind of assassination attempt on Trump. After all the virus and vaxx bullshit, I think pretty much everything is fake and gay now. So it wouldn't surprise me if the people who arranged the virus release to crush Trump's excellent economy the first time around have simply changed tactics.

But the stock market is definitely not the economy, so I don't think it's going to dent Trump's support much. Trump just has to show truly significant manufacturing job growth before midterms and he wins.

if stocks return to pre crash level let's say in a month or so, what group were the winners and what group were the losers?

komputodo says

AD says
3% annual appreciation rate.

I'm not sure I would call it an appreciation rate..

That is true, I should have wrote based on time value of money the future value of $12,000 in 1995 is about $29,000 in 2025 based on a discount rate of 3%.

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komputodo says

if stocks return to pre crash level let's say in a month or so, what group were the winners and what group were the losers?

The people who were on margin and forced to sell are generally the big losers.

Patrick says

Maybe this is all rigged as another kind of assassination attempt on Trump. After all the virus and vaxx bullshit, I think pretty much everything is fake and gay now. So it wouldn't surprise me if the people who arranged the virus release to crush Trump's excellent economy the first time around have simply changed tactics.

But the stock market is definitely not the economy, so I don't think it's going to dent Trump's support much. Trump just has to show truly significant manufacturing job growth before midterms and he wins.

I think there's already been a substantial corner turn in mentality. A lot of investors want to see new opportunities, and there's plenty of investment and financing opportunities in REshoring US Industry back.

AmericanKulak says

MolotovCocktail says

Insane. Twice the median income for a work truck.

Anything with Platinum in the name is not a work truck.

RWSGFY says

AmericanKulak says

MolotovCocktail says

Insane. Twice the median income for a work truck.

Anything with Platinum in the name is not a work truck.

Not really a work truck either if you do actual work. That's a small penis truck and a nice infotainment system with heated seats and steering wheel. Have fun paying $50k over the real value.

About half of the people own a retirement account; less than half pay Federal Income Tax.

They will benefit from tariffs and other measures to help American workers.

What the stock market does each day only matters to the talking shitheads on MSNBC, CNBC, CNN, etc.

Deporting foreign workers helps American workers of course.

I'm surprised how astute Trump is on these matters.

Stonks up today ~1.5%. Wall Street will survive just as it did in the era of Zenith and Sears.

A negative skew suggests that the market is expecting a downward price movement.

Keep an eye on GOOGL until expiration this Friday's closing.

AmericanKulak says

Stonks up today ~1.5%.

This did not age well.

What was the point of negotiating tariffs out in the open again? Why this shitstorm in the US stonk market was necessary?

clambo says

About half of the people own a retirement account; less than half pay Federal Income Tax.

They will benefit from tariffs and other measures to help American workers.

What the stock market does each day only matters to the talking shitheads on MSNBC, CNBC, CNN, etc.

Deporting foreign workers helps American workers of course.

I'm surprised how astute Trump is on these matters.

Top 10% of American households own 93% of the stock market according to a recent Yahoo Finance article.

I agree as far as why Trump does not care as the top 10% don't mind paying $6 for a dozen eggs or $4 a gallon at the gas pump, nor do they have to have roommates in order to afford rent.

Also I surmise at best 40% of the top 10% of households voted for Trump. The top 10% represent everyone from the over-educated smug hipsters and soyboys (including working as GS 14's/GS-15's at EPA, State Dept, DOJ, etc) to the Soros and Bezos crowd.

It will be interesting to see how inflation fares, but Bloomberg TV was promoting fear last night when it had one headline that said stagflation is very likely.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tax-cuts-tariffs-top-50-percent-own-almost-all-wealth/

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Eric Holder says

What was the point of negotiating tariffs out in the open again? Why this shitstorm in the US stonk market was necessary?

Who is making $$$ from this volatility ?

One thing for sure is to follow who is buying short duration or weekly calls

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The $30K to $50K likely don't own stocks or very little. They are the ones who struggle to pay rent and buy eggs and gas.

From today's Yahoo Finance as JP Morgan cut 12 month forecasts for 25 internet-related stocks

The bank reduced its price target on Meta to $610 from $725 while it cut its price target on AMZN to $220 from $270.

JPMorgan lowered its price target on Alphabet to $180 from $220, while cutting its price target on NFLX to $1,025 from $1,150.

AD says

Who is making $$$ from this volatility ?

Slutnick.