patrick.net

Today I was chatting with a guy who lives nearby, and he said he was a "financial adviser".

He was also a CPA, MBA, and had an M.S. in something with computers.

He started asking me questions and I almost laughed at his bullshit.

He offered me "advice". No thank you.

"Are you diversified into private equity, real estate, commodities, etc. blah blah blah?"

"I think my Fidelity Contrafund may own some "private equity" but I'm not sure and it's a small amount of my money."

I made a fucking ton of money with Vanguard Primecap and Vanguard Capital Opportunity; both funds are managed by Primecap in Pasadena, CA.
I also rolled the dice on shares of Apple and that's become huuuuuuuuge.

It doesn't matter anyway; you will do well with Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund or similar at Fideilty.

The trick is have it in there for 30 years of so. Too bad nobody has a time machine to start investing in 1990.

HeadSet says

There is no such investment as "the stock market." At best, you can buy some index funds. In reality, a stock investor must choose from a small subset of stocks over his own lifetime with "your results may vary." Plus, in the "very long run" we are all dead.

I copied that statement about "the stock market" from the S&P 500 CAGR calculator. The website for the calculator meant that "the stock market" is the S&P 500, as far as context.

But I agree as far as investing in "the stock market".

Seems like the best you could do is invest in a Wilshire 5000 fund to try to get as much broad range of stocks.

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There's only 3403 stocks in the Wilshire 5000 nowadays. There is simply not the investment choice that there used to be. This is from a variety of factors from companies cannibalizing each other, to private owners seeing the crap Wall Street does, and new IPOs designed to bilk investors instead of raising capital to expand their business. There is a ton of VC money and crazy pension fund managers, as well, making private equity valuations greater than they could get in the public markets. There is also much greater regulatory hurdles to meet nowadays.

Really, who wants to go through all that ???

So, we've still got millions upon millions of people continuously pouring ever more money into the stock market. Nobody even looks at valuations anymore.

The stock market capitalization is about $55.2 trillion. Our GDP is about $25.4 trillion...so an increase in stock values of 6% would be about 13% of our economy. This doesn't even include the dividends that are paid.

Apple trades at 8.75 times sales. Not income but sales. Sales and income are forecasted to be decreasing. Hewlett Packard trades at about .63 times sales.

However, Apple commands the #1 position in terms of capitalization. It therefore attracts the most of any company from index investors.

You've got about 100 million people that are working, that are putting their money blindly into the stock market through their retirement programs where they work.

You've only got about 2.3 million first time home buyers a year.

Good luck trying to convince either group that what they are spending is waaaaaaay outta line.

Misc says

There's only 3403 stocks in the Wilshire 5000 nowadays.

Yes, but that is the closest to getting enough broad market exposure or diversification as far as investing in the "entire stock market".

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Misc says

You've got about 100 million people that are working, that are putting their money blindly into the stock market through their retirement programs where they work.

You've only got about 2.3 million first time home buyers a year.

I read that contributions to the S&P 500 index fund through 401K and IRA contributions such as the federal government employees contributing every 2 weeks to their Thrift Savings Plan adds volume to the S&P 500 and contributes to demand every 2 weeks.

I'm not sure how many workers out of 100 million contribute regularly such as at least monthly to their 401Ks (and IRAs) and adding that much demand for the S&P 500 stocks.

I know of 1099 contractors who max out their retirement contributions such as Solo 401Ks and Traditional IRAs.

But I see where there is concern the stock market is a ponzi scheme or at risk of wiping people out such as the +53% drop in the S&P 500 around 2001 and 2009. Hopefully those close to retirement only had no more than 30% in stocks.

Where else can you put your 401K money ? Or don't put the money in a 401K ?

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There's about 330 million people in the US with a work participation rate of about 63%. About half have an employee contribution plan at work that they are taking advantage of. That's where I get the ballpark number of 100 million blindly contributing.

Given the market cap of the US stock market and estimated returns, the math just don't pencil out.

If you get selective, there are some stocks worthy of investment, but none that are widely known. Any stock known by the masses is hugely overvalued, especially if it is has a large market cap, as those are driven by inflows into index funds.

What 100 million lemmings cannot be wrong.

Just put in enough to get the match, and do it pre-tax, no Roth 401-k where you don't get the tax benefit. Best you can do with a 401-k type program and stay away from Index funds.

While it is possible for an individual to "save" money, it is impossible for a society to do so.

At the society level, all investment/savings programs Ponzi.

Misc says

Just put in enough to get the match, and do it pre-tax, no Roth 401-k where you don't get the tax benefit. Best you can do with a 401-k type program and stay away from Index funds.

I agree about contributing to traditional 401K (pre-tax). When you retire and withdraw from it, you'll be in a lower tax bracket.

What do you mean stay away from index funds like Wilshire 5000 or S&P 500 ? ? ? ?

Where do you put the money ? If you work for the federal guvmint, the Thrift Savings Plan (i.e., 401K) only has index funds and government bond fund.

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Misc says

While it is possible for an individual to "save" money, it is impossible for a society to do so.

At the society level, all investment/savings programs Ponzi.

Well I understand as us investors such as through government bond funds, depend on future society to be functional enough.

If not, then those bonds will never be paid back, but I guess we will have a lot bigger concerns such as society becoming like a Mad Max movie.

So when you invest like this, its an investment in hope for a better (or tolerable) future.

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AD says

Misc says

Just put in enough to get the match, and do it pre-tax, no Roth 401-k where you don't get the tax benefit. Best you can do with a 401-k type program and stay away from Index funds.

I agree about contributing to traditional 401K (pre-tax). When you retire and withdraw from it, you'll be in a lower tax bracket.

What do you mean stay away from index funds like Wilshire 5000 or S&P 500 ? ? ? ?

Where do you put the money ? If you work for the federal guvmint, the Thrift Savings Plan (i.e., 401K) only has index funds and government bond fund.

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Lots of private companies have been sold on the Index fund route a, as well. By at least getting the match and going pre-tax, you lose less value over the long term. Mathematically, the vast majority of people must lose value on their investments. The idea is to lose as little as possible.

Anyone here buying Tbills through Treasury Direct?

HeadSet says

Anyone here buying Tbills through Treasury Direct?

I used to but now the return pretty meh.

Misc says

Lots of private companies have been sold on the Index fund route a, as well. By at least getting the match and going pre-tax, you lose less value over the long term. Mathematically, the vast majority of people must lose value on their investments. The idea is to lose as little as possible.

I never lost money on my S&P 500 Fund as I've sold shares that I owned for at least 7 years

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Today's market can best be described as Insurance companies dash for cash. The property/casualty folks are about to be hit with what is probably a record dollar amount of claims. They gotta sell everything to meet that cash demand.

I wonder how many of these will make it.

https://www.alliance321.com/top-homeowners-insurance-companies-in-florida/

Misc says

Today's market can best be described as Insurance companies dash for cash. The property/casualty folks are about to be hit with what is probably a record dollar amount of claims. They gotta sell everything to meet that cash demand.

I wonder how many of these will make it.

https://www.alliance321.com/top-homeowners-insurance-companies-in-florida/

It's not only property, but the profits of life insurance companies suffering under the procrustean duress of a 6-sigma surge in excess mortality (and payouts) and rising interest rates.

(how did y'all like that $10 word?)

HeadSet says

Anyone here buying Tbills through Treasury Direct?

No. I use my brokerage account.

Why has healthcare been lackluster for at least the last 10 years ?

Vanguard Health Care Fund (ticker: VGHAX) average annual total return is 7% for last 10 years, and 10% since November 2021

Granted I read that about 29% of VGHAX is foreign stocks like Novo Nordisk and Norvatis , so I suspect a stronger dollar will depress the value of these stocks, as far as tracking the Dollar Index (ticker: DXY)

Any suggestions on this such as stay the course with holding health care funds ?

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AD says

Why has healthcare been lackluster for at least the last 10 years ?

All the money went to weight loss drugs.

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The below article is behind a paywall but its saying tomorrow (Monday 3 March 2025) should be a big short squeeze day

We will see how the S&P 500 fares tomorrow particular the Magnificent 7 stocks , at least GOOGL and AMZN finished in the green last Friday, after closing in red for almost every day since their last earnings call

And somebodies bought at least $3 billion of AMZN in the last 5 minutes of trading last Friday

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tomorrow-will-be-painful-short-squeeze-day-goldman-top-macro-trader-warns

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Stocks had a nice rally over the last few hours. I wonder if Trumps speech had anything to do with it.

Europe and particularly Norway are going to send some dough to keep Ukriane in the fight against the Russian invaders.

What seems to have escaped Trump and others is although it sucks, a secure Ukraine helps keep Europe secure, and a secure Europe is in the USA interest.

Europe doesn't want to be 'secure'. It 'wants' WWIII. We are no longer talking about the dictates of common sense or social conservation.

Europe always chooses slaughter - 30 Years War, Napoleonic Wars, Revolution of 1848, Austrian-German war of 1867, Franco-Prussian war of 1871, WWI, WWII, etc.

I think Larry Niven based the evolution of the Kzinti on the European wars. After multiple whole generations of the most aggressive of their young men are killed, the aggressive proportion of the male population is effectively exterminated. Only the cucks and cowards remain, which explains the eurotrash sluts' proclivities towards Americans and musselman rapefugees.

It's the traditional, periodic human sacrifice slaughter tithings, account holder harvests and suffering resonances mandated by bloodlines' empowering tunnel demons. It's no different from the Aztec pyramids with torn out hearts and severed heads rolled down the steps.

Both WWI and WWII began and ended on specific occult dates and times, until the human sacrifice agendas had been completed. The bloodlines hold a permanent bounty debt on the heads of their human herds.

It isn't what 'I' or 'we' believe, it is what THEY believe. The difference with Trump is he is standing in the way of their global sacrificial feeding rituals.

This one is a bit 'Woo-ish', but seems accurate as to the Euro Demon frame of mind. "Zelensky meets King Charles. World War 3 on the way?" We aren't talking about common sense, preservation of life, or even preservation of civilization. We are talking about the bloodline mandates to 'thin the herds' and re-establish themselves in the ashes at any cost.

https://www.rumormillnews.com/cgi-bin/forum.cgi?read=252140

stereotomy says

I think Larry Niven based the evolution of the Kzinti

Ringworld was awesome.

So, uhhhh where are the Ukies gonna get the weapon systems to fight the Russians.

They are staking that Trump will sell them US weapons. Trump wants to be known as the President of Peace, he probably ain't gonna sell them the the Euroweenies the weapons if he's got a decent peace offering from Russia.

There is no deal with "Russia", it's only Putin; nobody else has shit to say about anything in Russia.

Trump is naive and thinks he can talk to Putin like he talked to the assorted clowns on The Apprentice.

clambo says

There is no deal with "Russia", it's only Putin; nobody else has shit to say about anything in Russia.

Trump is naive and thinks he can talk to Putin like he talked to the assorted clowns on The Apprentice.

General George S. Patton:

“The difficulty in understanding the Russian is that we do not take cognizance of the fact that he is not a European, but an Asiatic, and therefore thinks deviously. We can no more understand a Russian than a Chinaman or a Japanese, and from what I have seen of them, I have no particular desire to understand them, except to ascertain how much lead or iron it takes to kill them. In addition to his other Asiatic characteristics, the Russian has no regard for human life and is an all out son of bitch, barbarian, and chronic drunk.”

Statement by Patton on 8 August 1945, as quoted in “General Patton : A Soldier’s Life” (2002) by Stanley P. Hirshson, p. 650

stereotomy says

After multiple whole generations of the most aggressive of their young men are killed, the aggressive proportion of the male population is effectively exterminated. Only the cucks and cowards remain, which explains the eurotrash sluts' proclivities towards Americans and musselman rapefugees.

I've sort of had that theory as well. And blended it towards 'why' there are so many hot Eastern European women at this point. (few men left had their pick to reproduce, uglier women did not).

However your comment suggests that if I'm right it won't last long and I cannot disagree with that.

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

stereotomy says

After multiple whole generations of the most aggressive of their young men are killed, the aggressive proportion of the male population is effectively exterminated. Only the cucks and cowards remain, which explains the eurotrash sluts' proclivities towards Americans and musselman rapefugees.

I've sort of had that theory as well. And blended it towards 'why' there are so many hot Eastern European women at this point. (few men left had their pick to reproduce, uglier women did not).

However your comment suggests that if I'm right it won't last long and I cannot disagree with that.

Git while the gittin's good. There was some really hot and high-quality Russian pussy for sale in the mail order bride market back in the early to mid 90's.

Stocks doing well today. According to WSJ, that is due to the jobs report and the idea the Fed will not rise rates.

Well, that did not last. Analysts are saying the big drop is due to tariffs on Canada and Mexico no longer being in doubt.

Now dow is 9% below, is it good time to buy?

We need Rin s input. Get him out of hoing n doll for now

Stocks are going down because investors fear that companies will actually have to hire Americans.

Booger says

Stocks are going down because investors fear that companies will actually have to hire Americans.