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Polls, betting markets and election prediction thread


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2024 Sep 18, 3:19pm   2,718 views  199 comments

by mell   ➕follow (10)   💰tip   ignore  

The divergence has started between the partisan polls on each side and the neutral pollsters (if any).

Also the betting markets currently hold harris as favorite although the swing states stay hotly contested while Trump survives assassination attempt after attempt.

One would think they would move in the opposite direction which is a bit disturbing, but it may just be partisan hackery to add insult to injury.

Teamsters overwhelmingly voted in favor of Trump, do we have more liberal arts majors than working class to explain the polls?

Make your predictions here, or not ;)

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126   WookieMan   2024 Nov 2, 6:18am  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

No way he's carrying Minnesota and New Mexico.

I don't know New Mexico at all really. Only been once. Minnesota is a weird one though. I can't stand Minneapolis, so I really don't have a feel for that city. The biggie there is Somali's and blacks. If Trump gets a gain in that demo of 5-10 points, the state is for sure in play. I don't think the Somalian people living there will vote for a woman.

Duluth I know very well. Blue collar city. Not huge, I think 2nd biggest, but I'm betting that will be red this time. Biden's garbage comment really didn't help for anyone that is somewhat politically active or watches the news. And labor unions not endorsing Kamala is another biggie for MN. Duluth is a huge iron ore shipping hub. Tons of hunters with guns.

The Tony joke about Puerto Rico was a joke by a 3rd party. My Puerto Rican next door neighbor has Trump stuff all over. I can promise you he's still voting Trump. Also if you know any Puerto Ricans they love their country but they fully understand it's run like shit. Maybe a few Karen house wives got offended that couldn't even find the country on the map. But Trump doesn't poll well with women for the most part.

For MN if the rural vote gets out hard it's a possibility he wins it. I'm still predicting he wins MN, WI, MI and PA. Which means it's impossible for Kamala to win without TX and FL. Almost no chance she does that with MN being a swing state this time around.
127   HeadSet   2024 Nov 2, 8:26am  

WookieMan says

I don't think the Somalian people living there will vote for a woman.

WTF? They voted for Ilhan Omar.
128   WookieMan   2024 Nov 2, 8:34am  

HeadSet says


WookieMan says


I don't think the Somalian people living there will vote for a woman.

WTF? They voted for Ilhan Omar.


Because they want their type. They have neither with Trump or Harris. They won't vote for the woman is my point if she's not Muslim. They'll pick the man or not vote.

Her district was gerrymandered most likely to get the votes and the men are too lazy to run. But they won't vote for a non-muslim woman. That's fact.
129   Tenpoundbass   2024 Nov 2, 9:02am  

What do you guys think the breakdown of switch hitters will be in this election?
I'm thinking 3% to 5% of registered Republicans will vote for Kamala, but 20% of the registered Democrats will be voting for Trump.
It's been well documented since the DNC that many Democrat voters have had a massive awakening to the current Democrat party.
I don't think many of those disenfranchised Democrats will reregister to be Republicans. What's the point, it's not like you can't vote for Trump if you're not a registered Republican?

When they report early voting and mail in results, they never mention the possibility of those Switch Hitter votes. I think the Democrats are in for a rude awakening. Those Switch Hitters are going to offset their bogus vote stealing operation.

I think the Independent voters are going to unanimously vote for Trump. Those that wouldn't are abstaining from voting.

In the last 2 years the only people that I have seen here in South Florida that are hardcore Democrats still willing to defend Joe Biden and Harris, are rich affluent white people, who probably got their Jumbo Loan house from the Public grift that is created in the Socialist Democrat ether.
130   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Nov 2, 10:28am  

Tenpoundbass says


but 20% of the registered Democrats will be voting for Trump.


The whole purpose registering as a Dem is to tell the entire world you are a fucking moron.

I mean, this is what we get from morons voting Dem:

https://patrick.net/post/1382403/2024-11-02-peanut-the-squirrel-murdered-by

So no. I don't think it will be 20%.

Hope you are right and I am wrong. But I doubt it.
131   WookieMan   2024 Nov 2, 10:35am  

We saw it in 2016. The country is not ready for a female POTUS. She won't win. My wife is right leaning but is for women empowerment given her career (not abortion and other shit like that). She won't vote for Kamala. 100%. Kamala turns off a lot of women. I think everyone is over the grab 'em by the pussy comment. Because they know it's right.
132   Ceffer   2024 Nov 2, 10:59am  

Brits are always at the bottom of every dogpile. Chatham House and RIIA, the Masonic Raj.



133   Ceffer   2024 Nov 2, 11:08am  



https://t.me/followsthewhiterabbit/100317
135   Ceffer   2024 Nov 2, 11:13am  

Just had this experience with my older liberal friend. He says that Trump was convicted of several proven crimes. I told him he was being brainwashed again.

136   Ceffer   2024 Nov 2, 11:19am  

How come they are always interviewing the wrong entities? They need to interview Dominion voting machines and summon the dead.

https://t.me/SGTnewsNetwork/78904
138   Ceffer   2024 Nov 2, 12:00pm  

Is the key to the courthouse filing BEFORE the date of the election? Seems they are producing the groundswell so the courts can't fuck the public like they did in 2020.

https://t.me/MikeJaco/9669
139   Ceffer   2024 Nov 2, 12:39pm  

You don't know it's true until there is an official denial, especially from the FIB?

https://t.me/WeTheMedia/111160

142   goofus   2024 Nov 3, 11:06am  

I read elsewhere that heavy shorting of Trump led to a 5% drop in his odds over a few hours Saturday (a trend which began a few days ago). The media explanation is an Iowa poll giving Harris the edge there, paired with two other obscure polling outfits finding favorable Dem results.

I’d be inclined to think the heavily funded Harris campaign is shorting the betting markets to set an expectation of 50/50 odds — which enables their campaign to fight for every last absentee and mail-in ballot, even those not post-marked or received after Nov 5th. A way to drag things out like in 2020.

I will say early voting numbers, which usually favor Dems 2:1, are trending 1:1 Dem:Rep, a good sign for Republicans. Republicans now outnumber Dems in party identification nationwide for the first time in 30 years. And Republicans usually overwhelm Democrats in voting day attendance. While things look good from these stats, so much of Harris’ campaign has been psychological — the betting market u-turn to 50/50 could well be another effort to demoralize Election Day Trump voters.
143   WookieMan   2024 Nov 3, 12:23pm  

goofus says

I will say early voting numbers, which usually favor Dems 2:1, are trending 1:1 Dem:Rep, a good sign for Republicans. Republicans now outnumber Dems in party identification nationwide for the first time in 30 years. And Republicans usually overwhelm Democrats in voting day attendance. While things look good from these stats, so much of Harris’ campaign has been psychological — the betting market u-turn to 50/50 could well be another effort to demoralize Election Day Trump voters.

Early voting is trash besides deployed military. You should vote day of. End of story. All you're doing is giving them time to get rid of your ballot. Electronically and physically. There's a reason we have an election day. Not week, not month or whatever.

Most states now it's a holiday. No work, no school, etc. There's no excuse to not vote in person at the last possible minute where it's substantially harder to cheat. Both sides cheat as well, it's just the Dems are better at it.
144   goofus   2024 Nov 3, 12:46pm  

It’s better to go into Election Day at least tied, so you’re not playing catch-up, subject to machine malfunctions. Phony voter data is easier to sort through before Nov 5th than after, and lawsuits are easier to win. Once the “free-est and fairest elections of all time” screaming starts, the judiciary cowers. Like with Biden in 2020.
145   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2024 Nov 3, 12:48pm  

I asked for a receipt or copy of what I voted for. All they offered me was a fucking, "I voted", sticker.
146   Ceffer   2024 Nov 3, 3:38pm  

You can put on your Cracker Jax box Satanic inversion decoder ring when you watch CNN to see what the Intels, Mockingbird and CIA want and what they are planning.

Clearly, they are going to run the election fraud to the wall. A successful election fraud is the ultimate demoralization because it installs vividly loathsome element of the population into power and the majority feel powerless to prevent it.

I caught CNN (right in front of the machines) at the gym. CNN sacks of shit are portraying all the key election states being completely neck in neck between Trump and Harris without exception or deviation. That simply means they continue to promote the mythology of the 'close' election in order to implement the election fraud full steam ahead.

Any voting machine that has telephony or internet wireless/bluetooth/satellite connection and/or rigged software is an enemy combatant subversive and deserves to have its bits hacked to bits by the white hats.
148   Patrick   2024 Nov 3, 9:01pm  

Ceffer says

The pen is NOT mightier than the Dominion machine.




What about voter registration though? Don't they at least ask for a name to check that the person is registered to vote?
149   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Nov 3, 10:57pm  

They are really getting desperate:


150   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Nov 3, 11:31pm  

And another...


151   WookieMan   2024 Nov 3, 11:42pm  

SoTex says

I asked for a receipt or copy of what I voted for. All they offered me was a fucking, "I voted", sticker.

Take a picture. Most have smart phones in their pockets with a camera. No one can tell you on public property that you cannot photograph your ballot. I plan on taking a pic of my ballot. That way I can ask to show me my vote if shit goes sideways.
153   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2024 Nov 4, 4:13am  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

They are really getting desperate:





I’ll take “Things that never happened for $800, Alex”
154   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2024 Nov 4, 4:14am  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

And another...





I can’t believe people are dumb enough to believe this.
155   WookieMan   2024 Nov 4, 5:08am  

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

I can’t believe people are dumb enough to believe this.

Really? Rachel Maddow is still on the air. There are copious amounts of dumb fucks spouting shit people believe. People need to stop watching TV. If everyone did that for 3 months you'd come out a better person. They don't know they're being brainwashed. This is legit 1984 stuff.
156   goofus   2024 Nov 4, 6:27am  

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says


DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says


And another...





I can’t believe people are dumb enough to believe this.



I know people who believe this. The LGBT camps thing does come from Maddow. A friend like this has sent link after link, trying to save my eternal political soul. She’s an engineer from the former Soviet Union, quite smart, and absolutely unconvinceable.
157   RWSGFY   2024 Nov 4, 7:28am  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

And another...





Both sides done this shit. For example in 2020 Scott Adams predicted that if Potato is elected in many of us would not be alive because Republicans will be hunted like animals.
158   Robert Sproul   2024 Nov 4, 7:44am  

WookieMan says

People need to stop watching TV.

Critical. When I have been asked why I didn't buy into the vax bullshit I can only say, 'well I haven't watched TV for 30 years or so'. I have turned it on in motel rooms and can take about 20 minutes.
159   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Nov 4, 8:01am  

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

I’ll take “Things that never happened for $800, Alex”


That is what was in the comments section.
160   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2024 Nov 4, 8:12am  

WookieMan says

Take a picture. Most have smart phones in their pockets with a camera. No one can tell you on public property that you cannot photograph your ballot. I plan on taking a pic of my ballot. That way I can ask to show me my vote if shit goes sideways.


Texas prohibits the use of electronic devices, including cell phones, within 100 feet of voting stations.
162   WookieMan   2024 Nov 4, 10:16am  

SoTex says

Texas prohibits the use of electronic devices, including cell phones, within 100 feet of voting stations.

My vote. Public property. Tough luck. I'm paying for it with taxes. Plus with small cameras now it's impossible for someone to police.

I'm not going to take a photo of someone else's ballot. At my polling place I know where to get to and take a clean shot and not get noticed. I don't give a flying fuck anymore. I want proof with GPS location and if I think shenanigans were going down the burden of proof is on them. Find my ballot. People need to do this tomorrow.

You can't record someone else audio wise without their knowledge. If you're not making a profit from it, or suing someone, you can photograph and record anything in a public space that you want. Polling stations are almost all publicly paid for facilities.
163   RWSGFY   2024 Nov 4, 10:31am  

WookieMan says

SoTex says


Texas prohibits the use of electronic devices, including cell phones, within 100 feet of voting stations.

My vote. Public property. Tough luck. I'm paying for it with taxes. Plus with small cameras now it's impossible for someone to police.

I'm not going to take a photo of someone else's ballot. At my polling place I know where to get to and take a clean shot and not get noticed. I don't give a flying fuck anymore.


How this is different from demon rat attitude towards election laws? "Fuck your election laws, we'll do what we want, good luck catching us."
164   WookieMan   2024 Nov 4, 1:35pm  

RWSGFY says

How this is different from demon rat attitude towards election laws? "Fuck your election laws, we'll do what we want, good luck catching us."

I don't care. I want to know my ballot is counted and have proof. It's not cheating or doing a thing with others ballots. Not sure your point or that you understood what I said.

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