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Polls, betting markets and election prediction thread


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2024 Sep 18, 3:19pm   2,880 views  199 comments

by mell   ➕follow (10)   💰tip   ignore  

The divergence has started between the partisan polls on each side and the neutral pollsters (if any).

Also the betting markets currently hold harris as favorite although the swing states stay hotly contested while Trump survives assassination attempt after attempt.

One would think they would move in the opposite direction which is a bit disturbing, but it may just be partisan hackery to add insult to injury.

Teamsters overwhelmingly voted in favor of Trump, do we have more liberal arts majors than working class to explain the polls?

Make your predictions here, or not ;)

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192   Patrick   2024 Nov 6, 11:07am  

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/euphoria-wednesday-november-6-2024


Trump defeated the Polls. For the last three weeks, the polls claimed Kamala Harris enjoyed a slight 1-3% lead over Trump, calling it “essentially neck and neck.” A couple of outlier polls from “respected” pollsters early this week even purported to show Kamala surging ahead.

The polls are a dead letter.

In another shift that may be a forever change, in contrast to the official polls, the layman’s betting markets correctly predicted the outcome of the presidential race. The polls were, once again, badly wrong. The polls are pure propaganda.

Transparent betting markets offer disintermediated, direct access to voter’s pre-election preferences. The polls will never be the same after this.

For another delicious thought, imagine how many ecstatic conservatives will be counting the cash they won from disappointed democrats. The top pro-Trump better on Polymarket put up $29 million. Ouch.
193   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2024 Nov 6, 11:25am  

Fwiw Rasmussen had it right yet again as they did in 2016(and they weren’t far off in 2020)

What is true is the hoi poloi that didn’t already realize how corrupt the msm is now are fully aware. The msm lied incessantly running up to this election. Lied about who trump is, what he’s don’t and most of all lied about what he would do. No longer. Black(males), brown, white…..all are fully alert. And if they weren’t, last night they saw all the ugly leftist media faces in full ugliness all night long.

Norah O’’Donnell on CBS almost cried a few times and basically looked like she had taken an unwanted surprise back door entry all night long.

Former Fox ancho Chris Wallace on CNN is the biggest pile of turds ever…an absolute elitist who couldn’t relate to a blu collar worker if his life depended on it.

Fuck all of them.
194   Patrick   2024 Nov 7, 12:29pm  




Money on the line is a far better indicator of truth than the CIA/corporate media polls.
195   RC2006   2024 Nov 7, 12:35pm  

After looking at all the numbers for 2020 and 2024 Democrates agree that Trump won in 2020. Then they will say Trump can't win a third term from 2024 election.
197   Patrick   2024 Nov 29, 9:40am  

https://notthebee.com/article/harris-campaign-aide-admits-they-never-had-internal-polling-showing-them-with-a-lead-on-trump


Harris aide admits campaign never had internal polling that showed a lead over Trump ... so why were all the professional polls different?




Clearly all the public polls were adding the 2020 margin of cheating to Kamala's results, because they assumed that the same level of cheating would happen.

We should remember that Rasmussen was the most honest of them.
198   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Nov 29, 10:38am  

Patrick says

https://notthebee.com/article/harris-campaign-aide-admits-they-never-had-internal-polling-showing-them-with-a-lead-on-trump



Harris aide admits campaign never had internal polling that showed a lead over Trump ... so why were all the professional polls different?




Clearly all the public polls were adding the 2020 margin of cheating to Kamala's results, because they assumed that the same level of cheating would happen.


The polls were bullshit?

Shocked!


199   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2024 Nov 29, 12:01pm  

Patrick says

because they assumed that the same level of cheating would happen.


The last several years I've been thinking it's more to help COVER the cheating. "Nobody was cheating - this goes along with the polls!"

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