patrick.net

Tonight's betting odds is 58% for Trump on Real Clear Politics, for whatever it is worth

I hope if Harris does win, that she does not act like she has a mandate as far as the border, student loan forgiveness, deficit spending, etc

HeadSet says

Yes, men that have to work on a Tuesday need to find a time to fit in voting.

This is why voting should be on Saturday.

Welfare schlubs are gonna schlub no matter what day of the week it is. It makes it easier for men to vote.

Polymarket is 2.8 to 1 for Trump, so 38,000 on Harris will return 100K if she wins.
It is a way to hedge the hideous feeling of her winning with a little dopamine from the cash win.
This is Scott Galloway's idea except of course he is putting up $385,000 for a Million win.
.....on the other hand him losing 385 will make a Trump win just a little sweeter.

AmericanKulak says

Welfare schlubs are gonna schlub no matter what day of the week it is

Or just give the ballots to the harvesters.

Robert Sproul says

Polymarket is 2.8 to 1 for Trump,

Polymarket is bullshit. Ppl who bet aren't the ppl voting and you can even withdraw from a bet at anytime. What a crock.

Robert Sproul says

I just listened to NPR interview some retired General and it was crystal clear that they are preparing for civil unrest and they will get their unrest whatever it takes. I anticipate 'Contested Results' followed by a 'False Flag' of obscene violence (Boston Marathon style) blamed on a 'Right Wing Extremist'. Game over. They are going to stop short of whatever-it-takes? They did 'Covid' FFS.
I am still amazed at how easy it was for them to orchestrate Jan 6, completely own the narrative, and spend years rubbing it in by jailing whoever the hell they want. Or get away with a blatantly stolen election last time, and spend the next 4 years mocking anybody that had the slightest doubt. Why the hell would it be any different this time? Elon is going to stop it single handed?

I knew there was a reason why last month the DoD updated Directive 5420.01, giving U.S. armed forces the power to use lethal force against protesting U.S. civilians.

Scary that this is even in the realm of possibility, but there it is. However the BLM shock troops are not all on the same page [https://kfoxtv.com/news/nation-world/blm-activist-plans-to-vote-for-trump-been-blindly-loyal-to-the-democrat-party-mark-fisher-black-lives-matter-rhode-island-donald-trump-kamala-harris-democratic-republican-party].

Those left, like gays, women “of color,” and abortion-addled white women, aren’t much of a street threat. Let’s hope the left is in as much disarray as it seems.

AmericanKulak says

HeadSet says

Yes, men that have to work on a Tuesday need to find a time to fit in voting.

This is why voting should be on Saturday.

Welfare schlubs are gonna schlub no matter what day of the week it is. It makes it easier for men to vote.

Not hard to fit in time. Most polling places open at 6am in your local time zone. Wife and I are up at 4:30am almost every day. Lines will be non-existent if you get there early. I think in most states it's either a holiday now or your employer has to let you leave work to vote at minimum.

IL went the holiday route, but it used to be during Obama years here your employer had to allow you time to vote on the clock. It's the people that wait until the afternoon/evening that just turn around when they see the line.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

Polymarket is bullshit. Ppl who bet aren't the ppl voting and you can even withdraw from a bet at anytime. What a crock.

For what its worth, the Real Clear Politics betting average is 57.7% for Trump

.

AD says

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

Polymarket is bullshit. Ppl who bet aren't the ppl voting and you can even withdraw from a bet at anytime. What a crock.

For what its worth, the Real Clear Politics betting average is 57.7% for Trump

It's an anecdotal poll essentially with gambling. I think it's more accurate than traditional polls. People see signs. People talk with neighbors.

My one liberal neighbors and friends put out Obama, Clinton and Biden signs in the past. Nothing this year besides local/state races. I don't do signs because I'm a minimalist and they make my yard look like shit. But 2 Harris signs out of 800 homes in a purple county. I think we go red. Cook county (Chicago) fucks our entire state.

WookieMan says

It's an anecdotal poll essentially with gambling. I think it's more accurate than traditional polls. People see signs. People talk with neighbors.

That's not a poll. Americans can't even bet on Polymarket.

.

for what its worth, the 6 registered voters in this New Hampshire town voted at 12:01 am today (election day) and they split 3 for Trump and 3 for Harris

as a comparison, Biden got 5 out of 5 votes in 2020

in 2016, Hilary got 4, Trump got 2 , Gary Johnson got 1 and Mitt Romney got 1

and Ayote got 5 out of 6 votes for governor in November 2024 ; Ayote seems like a solid Republican candidate

https://www.wmur.com/article/midnight-voting-new-hampshire-election-results-24/62810457

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch,_New_Hampshire#Federal_election_results

,

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

WookieMan says

It's an anecdotal poll essentially with gambling. I think it's more accurate than traditional polls. People see signs. People talk with neighbors.

That's not a poll. Americans can't even bet on Polymarket.

Yes they can. VPN. It's not 2000. 90% of the population didn't know about the existence of VPN. Much different now. I can "live" anywhere in the world. Especially younger guys that are more tech savvy. It's not hard to skirt around state and federal laws.

Either way Polymarket just shows you that guys are not voting for Harris in large numbers. Women generally don't gamble unless at a casino.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

That's not a poll.

Tell that to someone that bets on the horses. The betting odds usually favor the best horse. That horse is Trump.

Human sports not so much since officials, coaches and players can all fix a game. Owners of horses want the breeding values which is millions of dollars. They want them to win. One good horse and you're retired.

WookieMan says

Tell that to someone that bets on the horses.

I will. Along with a justified barrage pissing over the crappy education they got.

Betting isn't a poll on horses any more than they are on voters. Period.

WookieMan says

Human sports not so much since officials, coaches and players can all fix a game. Owners of horses want the breeding values which is millions of dollars. They want them to win. One good horse and you're retired.

Horse owners rig their races to put their horses over for the biggest purse all the time.
If you pay attention to the racing forms, and follow the race results. There are subtle things they do that is legal but intentional to skew the results.
On the racing form, you'll see track heats the horse ran for the last weeks or months. If a horse is a favorite because of the way the horse has been running during training. You'll also see that the horse has been training with a certain Jockey during those laps. On race day the horse is a favorite, but on the day of the race the trainer or owner will replace that jockey with another jockey. Horses are partial to favorite Jockeys. The horse may not run as well. The team behind the horse does this, because the horse is a favorite paying out crappy odds. So they'll do this for a couple races, so fans don't think the horse is a good horse, even though his test runs makes him seem fast. Eventually the horse will stop being a favorite and more of a longshot. Then they'll put the horses favorite jockey on him and the horse will win. The purse for winning a race isn't always as big as the gambling proceeds they can win.

They do this with new horses that are up and coming. They will also do this with horses that were in the group of winners but not the winner of last years major racing cups. To bring them back down in stature. SO they can put them over to win on bets.

They also may over water them, or give them too much water to drink right before they race. That is what you should be looking for when betters are inspecting the horses at the paddock before the race. But most people are looking at the horse in their favorite color leggings, and blinders. They don't know what people are looking at or for.

Once the horse does win a major cup or race. They sell the horse to other racers, who will probably just race them and not monkey around with the elements that maximizes the most gambling wins, and are pushing the horse to win races for the glory of the photo ops and trophies. And of course the puny purse.

WookieMan says

Lines will be non-existent if you get there early.

They were lined up before polls opened today. Got there 4 minutes early and there were already 70 people in front of me. Had to wait a bit but wasn’t bad. Turnout is likely to be huge if this is any evidence.

WookieMan says

Lines will be non-existent if you get there early.

Last time I tried that, they opened late. As in voting time started and the place wasn't even open. I think it took them at least 25 minutes for them to show up and stuff.

zzyzzx says

WookieMan says

Lines will be non-existent if you get there early.

Last time I tried that, they opened late. As in voting time started and the place wasn't even open. I think it took them at least 25 minutes for them to show up and stuff.

Aren't you in Baltimore? I'm in a town of 2,200 people and there was about 40 people at 5:55am. Cities are run like shit hence why I won't live in one again. Opening late is of concern for you. As in your vote being counted.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/euphoria-wednesday-november-6-2024

Trump defeated the Polls. For the last three weeks, the polls claimed Kamala Harris enjoyed a slight 1-3% lead over Trump, calling it “essentially neck and neck.” A couple of outlier polls from “respected” pollsters early this week even purported to show Kamala surging ahead.

The polls are a dead letter.

In another shift that may be a forever change, in contrast to the official polls, the layman’s betting markets correctly predicted the outcome of the presidential race. The polls were, once again, badly wrong. The polls are pure propaganda.

Transparent betting markets offer disintermediated, direct access to voter’s pre-election preferences. The polls will never be the same after this.

For another delicious thought, imagine how many ecstatic conservatives will be counting the cash they won from disappointed democrats. The top pro-Trump better on Polymarket put up $29 million. Ouch.

Fwiw Rasmussen had it right yet again as they did in 2016(and they weren’t far off in 2020)

What is true is the hoi poloi that didn’t already realize how corrupt the msm is now are fully aware. The msm lied incessantly running up to this election. Lied about who trump is, what he’s don’t and most of all lied about what he would do. No longer. Black(males), brown, white…..all are fully alert. And if they weren’t, last night they saw all the ugly leftist media faces in full ugliness all night long.

Norah O’’Donnell on CBS almost cried a few times and basically looked like she had taken an unwanted surprise back door entry all night long.

Former Fox ancho Chris Wallace on CNN is the biggest pile of turds ever…an absolute elitist who couldn’t relate to a blu collar worker if his life depended on it.

Fuck all of them.

Money on the line is a far better indicator of truth than the CIA/corporate media polls.

After looking at all the numbers for 2020 and 2024 Democrates agree that Trump won in 2020. Then they will say Trump can't win a third term from 2024 election.

original link

https://notthebee.com/article/harris-campaign-aide-admits-they-never-had-internal-polling-showing-them-with-a-lead-on-trump

Harris aide admits campaign never had internal polling that showed a lead over Trump ... so why were all the professional polls different?

Clearly all the public polls were adding the 2020 margin of cheating to Kamala's results, because they assumed that the same level of cheating would happen.

We should remember that Rasmussen was the most honest of them.

Patrick says

https://notthebee.com/article/harris-campaign-aide-admits-they-never-had-internal-polling-showing-them-with-a-lead-on-trump

Harris aide admits campaign never had internal polling that showed a lead over Trump ... so why were all the professional polls different?

Clearly all the public polls were adding the 2020 margin of cheating to Kamala's results, because they assumed that the same level of cheating would happen.

The polls were bullshit?

Shocked!

Patrick says

because they assumed that the same level of cheating would happen.

The last several years I've been thinking it's more to help COVER the cheating. "Nobody was cheating - this goes along with the polls!"