3
0

Polls, betting markets and election prediction thread


 invite response                
2024 Sep 18, 3:19pm   2,795 views  199 comments

by mell   ➕follow (10)   💰tip   ignore  

The divergence has started between the partisan polls on each side and the neutral pollsters (if any).

Also the betting markets currently hold harris as favorite although the swing states stay hotly contested while Trump survives assassination attempt after attempt.

One would think they would move in the opposite direction which is a bit disturbing, but it may just be partisan hackery to add insult to injury.

Teamsters overwhelmingly voted in favor of Trump, do we have more liberal arts majors than working class to explain the polls?

Make your predictions here, or not ;)

« First        Comments 89 - 128 of 199       Last »     Search these comments

91   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 20, 2:41pm  

Nate Silver and the PolyMarket Scam:

He suckers betters into putting their money towards one candidate...then pulls the football away at the last minute so that the House can clean up.

You all know Nate works for PolyMarket, right?




92   RWSGFY   2024 Oct 20, 3:15pm  

“If you can't spot the sucker in the first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker.”
94   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 21, 12:39pm  

This article is actually an analysis of the state of the election, with the Trump Stunt @ Mickey D's only part of it;



https://hotair.com/generalissimo/2024/10/21/when-kamalas-joy-got-trumped-by-a-happy-meal-n3796069
97   Eric Holder   2024 Oct 22, 4:24pm  

What were "betting markets" predicting 2 weeks before 2020 election? 2016?
98   WookieMan   2024 Oct 22, 5:28pm  

Patrick says





She looks like shit regardless of polling or anything else. If she can't take care of herself, I ain't voting for her. She looks like a fucking turkey.

Trump is overweight, but shows up 10-16 hours a day. Kamala cannot say that.
99   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 22, 9:27pm  

One of the few talking heads on TV that has an actual brain:

101   clambo   2024 Oct 22, 9:47pm  

How the fuck do they get polling "extremely close"?
Don't they call land lines and usually welfare queens and other losers are home watching TV and answer the poll?
Welfare queens and assorted losers of course aren't going to be big Trump fans.
102   RWSGFY   2024 Oct 23, 10:50am  

One would think they at least switched to calling cell phones by now... I mean, it's been 8 years since their last fuckup, enough time to learn.

On the other hand some party operative said that public polls have always been mostly useless and one should only pay attention to closed ones ordered by the parties and candidates. We, of course, have no access to such things.
103   Ceffer   2024 Oct 23, 11:05am  

Election isn't close by a longshit and everybody knows it. The DELUSION of close is the goal to make the cheat appear credible.

You can't hate these people enough.
105   zzyzzx   2024 Oct 29, 10:28am  

RWSGFY says

one should only pay attention to closed ones ordered by the parties and candidates. We, of course, have no access to such things.


We don't have access to those things, but when you see Trump holding rallies in NY, that should tell you something.
106   WookieMan   2024 Oct 29, 1:10pm  

zzyzzx says

one should only pay attention to closed ones ordered by the parties and candidates. We, of course, have no access to such things.

We don't have access to those things, but when you see Trump holding rallies in NY, that should tell you something.

I don't think it's impossible he could win NY. I'd be slightly shocked, but I do think it's a possibility. No one even voted for Kamala. Turnout is going to be abysmal for Dems.

If a man votes for her it should be automatic dick removal and jam it in a purple haired lesbians mouth.

I hate typing this stuff on the internet at risk of being correct and questioned, but I don't think Trump makes it to election day. I am voting for him to be clear to any bots scanning webpages. If anything he should pull a Biden and get in the basement now or just do podcasts for the next week.

Wisconsin he'd hit a home run with Charlie Berens and the You Betcha guy in WI and the Midwest if he jumped on that show. It would overlap MN, IL and MI. He's not really a podcaster, but if he can do 30 minutes with Trump he'll win some women over in the surrounding states. For whatever reason women find the act they put on to be hysterical. About 3M subs between the two and likely mostly midwest. It would be a good 30-60 minute interview bet if he has staffers that stumble upon patnet for some crazy reason.
107   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 29, 1:11pm  

Just did my ballot. RFK, Jr was on it.
108   HeadSet   2024 Oct 29, 3:37pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

Just did my ballot. RFK, Jr was on it.

What state?
112   RWSGFY   2024 Oct 30, 5:26pm  

Booger says






What did that Miller dude predict for 2020 and 2016?
113   Patrick   2024 Oct 30, 6:57pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says







I think AI bots are out in the millions now, telling Republicans not to vote because it's hopeless, they'll cheat again, blah blah.

But we all MUST vote for Trump if only to indicate to the deep state scum how much we hate them all.

And I think there's a damn good chance of a Trump landslide, but only if we all vote.
115   WookieMan   2024 Oct 31, 2:57am  

Patrick says

And I think there's a damn good chance of a Trump landslide, but only if we all vote.

I'm voting in person. Likely won't make a difference in IL, but I'll be there 6am so I don't have to wait in line. As a former postal worker I'd never trust mail in voting. If you put it in your outgoing mail and have a Trump sign in your yard and have a Dem carrier, they'll toss it. Not joking. I also don't want to vote early because then the cheat becomes easier.

It's why mail in voting should be forbidden. Not gonna lie, outgoing mail if they have a Harris sign in the yard it would get lost on my former route. I don't work for USPS anymore, but I can promise you no one would know. I'd just set it in a separate container/bag and dump it at a gas station. I did nothing illegal with USPS, but if I was still there, I'd toss ballots if they were obvious. Hence why you should vote in person. There are a lot of butt hurt liberals that work in the post office. Unless it's certified there's no way to know if your vote got counted via mail in. At least in IL.
116   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Nov 1, 5:04pm  

Patrick says

And I think there's a damn good chance of a Trump landslide, but only if we all vote.


Nope. No landslide. It's all crashing now.

We'll be lucky if it is a close win.

Suburbs are going full libtard.
117   mell   2024 Nov 1, 5:20pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says


Patrick says


And I think there's a damn good chance of a Trump landslide, but only if we all vote.


Nope. No landslide. It's all crashing now.

We'll be lucky if it is a close win.

Suburbs are going full libtard.


It's going to be a decisive win without cheating. He will win NV where early voting has a republican lead for the first time, GA, and either WI, MN, or PA, or NH. Even in PA where dems outnumber repubs 2:1 in early voting, it was 3:1 in 2020. Without cheating it will be decisive, since there will be cheating I also predict a narrow win. PA is definitely not in the bag, more of a toss up with a slight Trump lead maybe, but he won't need it if he gets GA, NV and WI, MN or NH
118   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2024 Nov 1, 8:12pm  

Booger says






If that’s the map, Trump likely wins Colorado and Oregon also.
119   WookieMan   2024 Nov 1, 8:50pm  

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

If that’s the map, Trump likely wins Colorado and Oregon also.

Might be the map. I definitely don't see WI as a loss. MI I don't know as well, but I'd somewhat shocked if he lost there. All he needs is one or two of them though. PA would sink the Harris ship either way. She has to take Texas or FL somehow to win in my opinion. Low probability of that happening.
120   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Nov 1, 9:22pm  

Booger says






No way he's carrying Minnesota and New Mexico.
121   Ceffer   2024 Nov 1, 10:24pm  

I was at the gym today on a machine overlooking the intersection outside. I saw a guy acting very weird. He parked his car across from a small park where homeless hang out, walking across the street looking all around him while he did it, then tore something off of the telephone pole. I could see it was a vote Trump sign. He crumpled it up and took it back across the street to his car and drove away.

He coulda been one of those YouTube weirdos. Thing that's stranger yet is seeing a Trump sign anywhere out in public in Santa Cruz.
123   Ceffer   2024 Nov 2, 12:10am  

The pen is NOT mightier than the Dominion machine.

124   Ceffer   2024 Nov 2, 12:39am  

Like said, I don't think Trump would have campaigned if they didn't have a solid counter strategy for the cheat. Why they let 2022 go, I don't know, except the American public hadn't been educated enough. At least I hopium.
126   WookieMan   2024 Nov 2, 6:18am  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

No way he's carrying Minnesota and New Mexico.

I don't know New Mexico at all really. Only been once. Minnesota is a weird one though. I can't stand Minneapolis, so I really don't have a feel for that city. The biggie there is Somali's and blacks. If Trump gets a gain in that demo of 5-10 points, the state is for sure in play. I don't think the Somalian people living there will vote for a woman.

Duluth I know very well. Blue collar city. Not huge, I think 2nd biggest, but I'm betting that will be red this time. Biden's garbage comment really didn't help for anyone that is somewhat politically active or watches the news. And labor unions not endorsing Kamala is another biggie for MN. Duluth is a huge iron ore shipping hub. Tons of hunters with guns.

The Tony joke about Puerto Rico was a joke by a 3rd party. My Puerto Rican next door neighbor has Trump stuff all over. I can promise you he's still voting Trump. Also if you know any Puerto Ricans they love their country but they fully understand it's run like shit. Maybe a few Karen house wives got offended that couldn't even find the country on the map. But Trump doesn't poll well with women for the most part.

For MN if the rural vote gets out hard it's a possibility he wins it. I'm still predicting he wins MN, WI, MI and PA. Which means it's impossible for Kamala to win without TX and FL. Almost no chance she does that with MN being a swing state this time around.
127   HeadSet   2024 Nov 2, 8:26am  

WookieMan says

I don't think the Somalian people living there will vote for a woman.

WTF? They voted for Ilhan Omar.
128   WookieMan   2024 Nov 2, 8:34am  

HeadSet says


WookieMan says


I don't think the Somalian people living there will vote for a woman.

WTF? They voted for Ilhan Omar.


Because they want their type. They have neither with Trump or Harris. They won't vote for the woman is my point if she's not Muslim. They'll pick the man or not vote.

Her district was gerrymandered most likely to get the votes and the men are too lazy to run. But they won't vote for a non-muslim woman. That's fact.

« First        Comments 89 - 128 of 199       Last »     Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions   gaiste