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Polls, betting markets and election prediction thread


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2024 Sep 18, 3:19pm   1,646 views  115 comments

by mell   ➕follow (10)   💰tip   ignore  

The divergence has started between the partisan polls on each side and the neutral pollsters (if any).

Also the betting markets currently hold harris as favorite although the swing states stay hotly contested while Trump survives assassination attempt after attempt.

One would think they would move in the opposite direction which is a bit disturbing, but it may just be partisan hackery to add insult to injury.

Teamsters overwhelmingly voted in favor of Trump, do we have more liberal arts majors than working class to explain the polls?

Make your predictions here, or not ;)

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94   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Oct 21, 12:39pm  

This article is actually an analysis of the state of the election, with the Trump Stunt @ Mickey D's only part of it;



https://hotair.com/generalissimo/2024/10/21/when-kamalas-joy-got-trumped-by-a-happy-meal-n3796069
97   Eric Holder   2024 Oct 22, 4:24pm  

What were "betting markets" predicting 2 weeks before 2020 election? 2016?
98   WookieMan   2024 Oct 22, 5:28pm  

Patrick says





She looks like shit regardless of polling or anything else. If she can't take care of herself, I ain't voting for her. She looks like a fucking turkey.

Trump is overweight, but shows up 10-16 hours a day. Kamala cannot say that.
99   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Oct 22, 9:27pm  

One of the few talking heads on TV that has an actual brain:

101   clambo   2024 Oct 22, 9:47pm  

How the fuck do they get polling "extremely close"?
Don't they call land lines and usually welfare queens and other losers are home watching TV and answer the poll?
Welfare queens and assorted losers of course aren't going to be big Trump fans.
102   RWSGFY   2024 Oct 23, 10:50am  

One would think they at least switched to calling cell phones by now... I mean, it's been 8 years since their last fuckup, enough time to learn.

On the other hand some party operative said that public polls have always been mostly useless and one should only pay attention to closed ones ordered by the parties and candidates. We, of course, have no access to such things.
103   Ceffer   2024 Oct 23, 11:05am  

Election isn't close by a longshit and everybody knows it. The DELUSION of close is the goal to make the cheat appear credible.

You can't hate these people enough.
105   zzyzzx   2024 Oct 29, 10:28am  

RWSGFY says

one should only pay attention to closed ones ordered by the parties and candidates. We, of course, have no access to such things.


We don't have access to those things, but when you see Trump holding rallies in NY, that should tell you something.
106   WookieMan   2024 Oct 29, 1:10pm  

zzyzzx says

one should only pay attention to closed ones ordered by the parties and candidates. We, of course, have no access to such things.

We don't have access to those things, but when you see Trump holding rallies in NY, that should tell you something.

I don't think it's impossible he could win NY. I'd be slightly shocked, but I do think it's a possibility. No one even voted for Kamala. Turnout is going to be abysmal for Dems.

If a man votes for her it should be automatic dick removal and jam it in a purple haired lesbians mouth.

I hate typing this stuff on the internet at risk of being correct and questioned, but I don't think Trump makes it to election day. I am voting for him to be clear to any bots scanning webpages. If anything he should pull a Biden and get in the basement now or just do podcasts for the next week.

Wisconsin he'd hit a home run with Charlie Berens and the You Betcha guy in WI and the Midwest if he jumped on that show. It would overlap MN, IL and MI. He's not really a podcaster, but if he can do 30 minutes with Trump he'll win some women over in the surrounding states. For whatever reason women find the act they put on to be hysterical. About 3M subs between the two and likely mostly midwest. It would be a good 30-60 minute interview bet if he has staffers that stumble upon patnet for some crazy reason.
107   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Oct 29, 1:11pm  

Just did my ballot. RFK, Jr was on it.
108   HeadSet   2024 Oct 29, 3:37pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

Just did my ballot. RFK, Jr was on it.

What state?
112   RWSGFY   2024 Oct 30, 5:26pm  

Booger says






What did that Miller dude predict for 2020 and 2016?
113   Patrick   2024 Oct 30, 6:57pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says







I think AI bots are out in the millions now, telling Republicans not to vote because it's hopeless, they'll cheat again, blah blah.

But we all MUST vote for Trump if only to indicate to the deep state scum how much we hate them all.

And I think there's a damn good chance of a Trump landslide, but only if we all vote.
115   WookieMan   2024 Oct 31, 2:57am  

Patrick says

And I think there's a damn good chance of a Trump landslide, but only if we all vote.

I'm voting in person. Likely won't make a difference in IL, but I'll be there 6am so I don't have to wait in line. As a former postal worker I'd never trust mail in voting. If you put it in your outgoing mail and have a Trump sign in your yard and have a Dem carrier, they'll toss it. Not joking. I also don't want to vote early because then the cheat becomes easier.

It's why mail in voting should be forbidden. Not gonna lie, outgoing mail if they have a Harris sign in the yard it would get lost on my former route. I don't work for USPS anymore, but I can promise you no one would know. I'd just set it in a separate container/bag and dump it at a gas station. I did nothing illegal with USPS, but if I was still there, I'd toss ballots if they were obvious. Hence why you should vote in person. There are a lot of butt hurt liberals that work in the post office. Unless it's certified there's no way to know if your vote got counted via mail in. At least in IL.

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