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Polls, betting markets and election prediction thread


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2024 Sep 18, 3:19pm   1,113 views  90 comments

by mell   ➕follow (10)   💰tip   ignore  

The divergence has started between the partisan polls on each side and the neutral pollsters (if any).

Also the betting markets currently hold harris as favorite although the swing states stay hotly contested while Trump survives assassination attempt after attempt.

One would think they would move in the opposite direction which is a bit disturbing, but it may just be partisan hackery to add insult to injury.

Teamsters overwhelmingly voted in favor of Trump, do we have more liberal arts majors than working class to explain the polls?

Make your predictions here, or not ;)

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78   mell   2024 Oct 18, 12:56pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

mell says



Because they work far less than men


Nope. It's because men in general don't bother with it.

Most femiNazi karens work. Even if they are bullshit jobs.

https://patrick.net/post/1381874/2024-08-14-bots-brides-of-the-state

They don't work, they pretend to. If they have something better to do they will drop everything on the spot, at least for corporate jobs. They have much more time than men to go to the spa, get a manicure, or vote for that matter
79   WookieMan   2024 Oct 18, 2:42pm  

mell says

Because they work far less than men

Eh, can't say I agree with this. Men are just lazy in most cases. I live in a different part of the country, but I'll take my golf cart drinking a beer to the voting location playing some music at a respectful volume.

The problem is cities. It seems like it should be convenient. It's not. Should be close by. It's not. It why Dems can ballot harvest so well or organize transportation for older or illegals to vote. The republican men in cities are idiots. It's not that they're working, they're just lazy.

There's not a state I know of where a company can penalize you if you're late because of voting. IL should be red. The city men just give up. I'm sure it's similar in CA. Why vote? It doesn't count. That shit needs to stop.
80   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Oct 18, 3:08pm  

mell says

vote for that matter


Men DO NOT VOTE compared to women even when they have the free time, period.
82   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Oct 18, 3:33pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

mell says


vote for that matter


Men DO NOT VOTE compared to women even when they have the free time, period.


On.the good news front, although this is anecdotal:

MSNBC: We should note, we did not find a single person who audibly would tell us that they voted for Kamala Harris. These were Trump supporters getting out to vote early in the all-important Mojave County. Take a listen to some of our conversations.

VOTER: Well, the difference is gonna be that we're -- everybody's coming out early.

MSNBC: Why did you vote early this year?

VOTER #2: Honestly, because Donald Trump told me to.

MSNBC: We went one man who did not vote in 2020, but he said he was horrified by the state of the country, so he's voting here in 2024.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/10/17/jesse_watters_kamala_harris_faltering_candidacy_threatens_the_end_of_the_obama-biden_era.html
83   WookieMan   2024 Oct 18, 4:34pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

Men DO NOT VOTE compared to women even when they have the free time, period.

Don't think that will hold true this time. Problem is swing states are dictated by individual districts and a few votes. I think blacks will be the deciding factor. Trump I think has seen a 10 point swing since 2016 in male blacks.

If that's the case PA, MI, WI and MN are all red. He could lose NV and AZ in that scenario. I think he wins them though. Might be some violence but I think the left LGBTQ group tucks their dick between their legs and walks away on this one.

0 people voted for Kamala in a primary. Maybe a write in I suppose. Some of the female candidates in '20 were pretty bright. Confident. Kamala 8 years later is still an idiot. They didn't like round 1, not sure why they like her now either after 3.5 years of bull shit she's been a part of.
84   mell   2024 Oct 18, 7:20pm  

WookieMan says

mell says


Because they work far less than men

Eh, can't say I agree with this. Men are just lazy in most cases. I live in a different part of the country, but I'll take my golf cart drinking a beer to the voting location playing some music at a respectful volume.

The problem is cities. It seems like it should be convenient. It's not. Should be close by. It's not. It why Dems can ballot harvest so well or organize transportation for older or illegals to vote. The republican men in cities are idiots. It's not that they're working, they're just lazy.

There's not a state I know of where a company can penalize you if you're late because of voting. IL should be red. The city men just give up. I'm sure it's similar in CA. Why vote? It doesn't count. That shit needs to stop.

It's a generalization with exceptions as usual, but for the most part true. It's in their biology to nest, bear and raise children, not to work.
85   komputodo   2024 Oct 18, 8:29pm  

WookieMan says

They didn't like round 1, not sure why they like her now either after 3.5 years of bull shit she's been a part of.

i don't think they like her...I think it's more like they hate TRUMP.
87   Ceffer   2024 Oct 19, 12:53pm  

Scraping the bottom of the barrel for the last daft idiot in the Idiopolous. Hail the Chris Wallace Assertion Fallacy! Hail the Owl Glasses and the talking head toupee! Like AF used to say, that's a face you just want to smash a fist into.

https://t.me/WeTheMedia/110061
88   Ceffer   2024 Oct 19, 1:03pm  

"KamalaToe, you ignorant slut. Move over and let the Illuminati Witch Bad Girl take over the reins of Armageddon."

https://t.me/tribunalsandexecutions/485560

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