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Polls, betting markets and election prediction thread
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2024 Sep 18, 3:19pm 2,349 views 187 comments
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184
AD
2024 Nov 4, 11:01pm
AD
2024 Nov 4, 11:01pm
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for what its worth, the 6 registered voters in this New Hampshire town voted at 12:01 am today (election day) and they split 3 for Trump and 3 for Harris
as a comparison, Biden got 5 out of 5 votes in 2020
in 2016, Hilary got 4, Trump got 2 , Gary Johnson got 1 and Mitt Romney got 1
and Ayote got 5 out of 6 votes for governor in November 2024 ; Ayote seems like a solid Republican candidate
https://www.wmur.com/article/midnight-voting-new-hampshire-election-results-24/62810457
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch,_New_Hampshire#Federal_election_results
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for what its worth, the 6 registered voters in this New Hampshire town voted at 12:01 am today (election day) and they split 3 for Trump and 3 for Harris
as a comparison, Biden got 5 out of 5 votes in 2020
in 2016, Hilary got 4, Trump got 2 , Gary Johnson got 1 and Mitt Romney got 1
and Ayote got 5 out of 6 votes for governor in November 2024 ; Ayote seems like a solid Republican candidate
https://www.wmur.com/article/midnight-voting-new-hampshire-election-results-24/62810457
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch,_New_Hampshire#Federal_election_results
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185
WookieMan
2024 Nov 4, 11:02pm
WookieMan
2024 Nov 4, 11:02pm
DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says
Yes they can. VPN. It's not 2000. 90% of the population didn't know about the existence of VPN. Much different now. I can "live" anywhere in the world. Especially younger guys that are more tech savvy. It's not hard to skirt around state and federal laws.
Either way Polymarket just shows you that guys are not voting for Harris in large numbers. Women generally don't gamble unless at a casino.
WookieMan says
It's an anecdotal poll essentially with gambling. I think it's more accurate than traditional polls. People see signs. People talk with neighbors.
That's not a poll. Americans can't even bet on Polymarket.
Yes they can. VPN. It's not 2000. 90% of the population didn't know about the existence of VPN. Much different now. I can "live" anywhere in the world. Especially younger guys that are more tech savvy. It's not hard to skirt around state and federal laws.
Either way Polymarket just shows you that guys are not voting for Harris in large numbers. Women generally don't gamble unless at a casino.
186
WookieMan
2024 Nov 4, 11:08pm
WookieMan
2024 Nov 4, 11:08pm
DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says
Tell that to someone that bets on the horses. The betting odds usually favor the best horse. That horse is Trump.
Human sports not so much since officials, coaches and players can all fix a game. Owners of horses want the breeding values which is millions of dollars. They want them to win. One good horse and you're retired.
That's not a poll.
Tell that to someone that bets on the horses. The betting odds usually favor the best horse. That horse is Trump.
Human sports not so much since officials, coaches and players can all fix a game. Owners of horses want the breeding values which is millions of dollars. They want them to win. One good horse and you're retired.
187
DemocratsAreTotallyFucked
2024 Nov 4, 11:51pm
DemocratsAreTotallyFucked
2024 Nov 4, 11:51pm
WookieMan says
I will. Along with a justified barrage pissing over the crappy education they got.
Betting isn't a poll on horses any more than they are on voters. Period.
Tell that to someone that bets on the horses.
I will. Along with a justified barrage pissing over the crappy education they got.
Betting isn't a poll on horses any more than they are on voters. Period.
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Also the betting markets currently hold harris as favorite although the swing states stay hotly contested while Trump survives assassination attempt after attempt.
One would think they would move in the opposite direction which is a bit disturbing, but it may just be partisan hackery to add insult to injury.
Teamsters overwhelmingly voted in favor of Trump, do we have more liberal arts majors than working class to explain the polls?
Make your predictions here, or not ;)