patrick.net

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election

Hey we haven't seen you in a while. @Patrick needs to have a welcome back here. What's the point of this link? Yes, the betting markets are currently unanimous although some are aa close as 2 percentage points. Are you forecasting a harris victory?

RealClear Politics has one of the best tracking polls

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Biden won by 4.6% of the popular vote so round that up to 5%, and examine the recent national polls for Harris which have her as much as winning the popular vote by 5%

Don't matter cause she might fare a lot better in New York and California than Biden to easily get her to that 5% margin. What matters is the voting in less liberal states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Michigan.

I guess the Del Boca Vista demographic has slowly died off in South Florida and that may explain why Florida is essentially not a left leaning in Presidential elections.

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AD says

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Biden won by 4.6% of the popular vote so round that up to 5%, and examine the recent national polls for Harris which have her as much as winning the popular vote by 5%

Don't matter cause she might fare a lot better in New York and California than Biden to easily get her to that 5% margin. What matters is the voting in less liberal states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Michigan.

I guess the Del Boca Vista demographic has slowly died off in South Florida and that may explain why Florida is essentially not a left leaning in Presidential elections.

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Agreed. Still the betting markets are betting on who becomes president (amongst other things), and I was surprised about the 5% lead following them being pretty much tied around the 2nd assassination attempt. Maybe many are betting on the dem cheat machine being well oiled or that the next attempt succeeds. Crazy times. Still it's pretty much a tie in the EC right now, probably slightly leaning Trump since PA will be fucked if harris wins

^^^^^^
THIS!

mell says

betting on the dem cheat machine being well oiled

Bingo!

mell says

Maybe many are betting on the dem cheat machine being well oiled or that the next attempt succeeds.

That is what I have been wondering a lot especially since the Arizona lawsuit by the Arizona GOP about the 40,000 voter registrations. The chickens have finally come home to roost in regards to Bill Clinton's Motor Voter Law.

I think also about Georgia and the voter integrity law passed a couple of years ago by Governor Kemp, and wonder how hard will the paid AntiFa and Act Blue operatives will work this election year compared to 2020.

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Why would anybody bet on a rigged election with a captured MSM? You're basically betting on whether the fraud can overcome the popular vote or not. The percentages are bogus, when KamalaToe has trouble bribing audiences to attend her events.

Does the Deep State and the Euro Congeners win, or does Trump massively overwhelm their cheating apparatus?

I guess the old mantra holds that compulsive gamblers will gamble on anything.

AD says

I guess the Del Boca Vista demographic has slowly died off in South Florida and that may explain why Florida is essentially not a left leaning in Presidential elections.

Secular/Reform Brooklyn Bolsheviks were replaced with Hassidim who vote 75% Republican. Seriously: North of Miami is full of Hassidics now, and most of them conceal carry. They have 3-4 kids apiece unlike the Secular Yentas.

Orlando however went the opposite way; Orange and Oscela used to be solid Red: Now it's chock full of MENA who vote solid Democrat. The State Rep in Orlando, Eskamani, is 5 kinds of Left Nut, her parents were Iranian Communists.

AD says

I guess the Del Boca Vista demographic has slowly died off in South Florida

Isn't that where Seinfelds parents moved to?

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/maximized-thursday-september-19-2024

In the most poll-defying story of the week, CNN ran an very encouraging article two days ago headlined, “Teamsters won’t endorse in presidential race after releasing internal polling showing most members support Trump.”



The International Brotherhood of Teamsters (IBT) is one of the largest labor unions in the country. Originally established in 1903, it first represented teams of drivers who shipped goods on horse-drawn wagons; hence the name. The union gradually expanded to encompass a broad range of industries like freight, warehouse, construction, airlines, public services, and so on.

The Teamsters is one of America’s most powerful and politically active unions, known for its ability to organize large-scale strikes and negotiate for labor rights, higher wages, job security, and improved working conditions. Needless to say, since the New Deal era the Teamsters have historically aligned with Democrats.

On Monday, the IBT’s leaders created history by splitting the baby, announcing the union will not endorse either candidate this year. The reason for the historic non-endorsement is that most of its Democrat-leaning members (60%) supported Trump. Why not endorse Trump? The Teamsters are probably fearful of crossing easily-offended and revenge-minded Democrats.

If the Teamster’s own internal poll of reliably liberal, politically active membership breaks 60%/34% in Trump’s favor, what are we to make of corporate media’s polling showing the candidates neck-and-neck? Something isn’t adding up.

If the Teamsters supports Trump 60% to 34%, I’m thinking the corporate media polls are completely fake.

AD says

What matters is the voting in less liberal states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Michigan.

Trump wins them all. Election over. You can't cheat your way out of that hole. You forgot MN in there as well. That's my prediction. I eat it if I'm wrong. Half of those states are my part of the country that I've been to recently.

Trump is pro-Israel. But he's worked with Muslims. Got us out of their territory overseas. Biden/Harris have done nothing but send Israel a ton of money and a shitty dock to Gaza. You lost Dearborn, MI and Minneapolis with that. They vote as a community. 20-30k votes in one state is all it takes.

I don't care about polls. It's paid for by the parties. There are less R's than D's registered. So polling is oversampled. Harris is toast. Don't forget she's a "black" woman. She lost most of the male votes out of the gate. I don't think women can lead and I think most men think the same. They can be successful, but I'll never vote for a woman for POTUS. There's a lot like me in fly over country. Hence why she loses MN, WI, MI, and PA. Which is a Trump win.

WookieMan says

20-30k votes in one state is all it takes.

Correct, which is why 50,000 "found" votes and a partisan judge is all it takes to pull off a cheat. Remember, Al Franken won from votes found in the trunk of a car.

I "akshually" saw my first Kummalala bumper sticker today.

RWSGFY says

I "akshually" saw my first Kummalala bumper sticker today.

Lol. My kid knows of the two Kamala signs in town finally. Since this is anonymous, said signs will be removed. By my kids. As long as they're crafty and don't get caught I'm all game for it. Good/bad father, I don't care. Enjoy life. It's a fucking sign.

I think it's fun because the owners are pussies and won't take down a Trump sign knowing they could get shot.

Asshole down the street has a massive Kamala/Walz flag hanging from the porch along with a never before seen Stars and Stripes.

My neighborhood is almost split down the middle in voter registration. That remains the one and only pro Kamala anything. Here in So Cal.

As might be expected, KamWalz signs going up, but not a yuge number so far. Two in my immediate hood, a handful in a 55 yo and over park next door where they should be old enough to know better. I did drive behind a car with a Trump sticker. I think putting out anything Trump is inviting property damage in Santa Cruz, not just signs being removed. Too many lesbos, people on the dole, section 8, etc. etc.

RWSGFY says

I "akshually" saw my first Kummalala bumper sticker today.

You see Ukeys taking out the Death Star, too.

Biden won the popular vote by about 4.7%, and barely won Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin, and won by about less than 1.5% for Pennsylvania and less than 2.9% for Michigan.

See latest Real Clear Politics composite poll below. Notice that Biden and Clinton were way ahead on 21 September for their election years.

About a 2:1 or better Trump:Harris ratio in the San Antonio neighborhood I just moved into. More and more of each are popping up.

AD says

See latest Real Clear Politics composite poll below. Notice that Biden and Clinton were way ahead on 21 September for their election years.

No chance she wins WI. I wouldn't put a huge bet on it because of cheating, but I see no way she wins it. Trump wins MI and PA. So basically over with one or two of the three. Might or probably should win MN as well.

Even in rural IL there are still a lot of liberals/dems. Almost non-existent support for Harris. Walz was an awful choice which may cost MN. Wake the citizens up and be like "shit, we voted for this weirdo for governor." Harris is/will LOSE 5 points at least because of him in MN. You got the largest Somali population #muslim in the country. Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah issues ain't gonna be liked.

There's no path to victory for Harris. The margin of error is 4. Florida and Ohio shouldn't even be on the list anyway. He gets 3 of those she's toast. I see WI, PA, MI, AZ, NV, NC, GA all going Trump.

This is why we have the electoral college. I don't want CA policies in my area. The only reason most democrats are ever in play is CA, IL and NY. The rest don't have enough EC votes to really move the needle. Trump needs 2 of those state and it's over. Hence why they're trying to kill him.

Do you believe that this election will be stolen by the Democrats?

Yes - 99%
No - 0%
Undecided - 1%

Do you believe that the Republicans will do anything significant to stop the steal?

Yes - 0%
No - 100%

WookieMan says

I see WI, PA, MI, AZ, NV, NC, GA all going Trump.

With everyone concentrating on those states to stop a steal, watch a totally unexpected cheat come in and unwatched Texas goes for Harris. Maybe another surprise like the known swing states are cheated for Harris, but New York negates that by voting for Trump.

RayAmerica says

Do you believe that this election will be stolen by the Democrats?

Yes - 99%
No - 0%
Undecided - 1%

Do you believe that the Republicans will do anything significant to stop the steal?

Yes - 0%
No - 100%

I hereby vote this to be the most accurate poll I have seen on this thread so far.

But then again, I am a certified cynical GenX ratbastard.

Apparently, the Amish is really pissed at the Dems. In PA, Gov. Shapiro sent goons to raid their farms for unprocessed milk.

https://spectator.org/why-is-kamala-still-losing/

https://open.substack.com/pub/stevecortes/p/battleground-voters-dont-trust-harris

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

Apparently, the Amish is really pissed at the Dems. In PA, Gov. Shapiro sent goons to raid their farms for unprocessed milk.

I hope they have busses and enough drivers to take Amish people to the polls. Also, I'm guessing pollsters aren't asking the Amish who they are voting for. They should turn this into a literal Trump Train. https://www.strasburgrailroad.com/

Trump should be running away with this election based on the fundamentals and it should be well outside the range of the cheat.

I believe (hope) the polls are still undercounting support for Trump based on history and the Media's desire to suppress Republican enthusiasm.

But if Trump manages to lose this thing, that will be on us for nominating a candidate that had unique and very high unfavorable ratings capable of losing to someone as weak as Kamala and Waltz.

How come there's not a column for the voting machines and drop off containers?

Ceffer says

How come there's not a column for the voting machines and drop off containers?

@AD, hope all is well and no problems.

AmericanKulak says

AD, hope all is well and no problems.

I appreciate that

fortunately the track line of category 4 Hurricane Heline was about 120 miles east of here

socal2 says

But if Trump manages to lose this thing, that will be on us for nominating a candidate that had unique and very high unfavorable ratings capable of losing to someone as weak as Kamala and Waltz.

No, it will be that the MAGA folks were unable to stop the steal. In an honest election, Trump wins in a landslide.