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Polls, betting markets and election prediction thread


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2024 Sep 18, 3:19pm   429 views  39 comments

by mell   ➕follow (10)   💰tip   ignore  

The divergence has started between the partisan polls on each side and the neutral pollsters (if any).

Also the betting markets currently hold harris as favorite although the swing states stay hotly contested while Trump survives assassination attempt after attempt.

One would think they would move in the opposite direction which is a bit disturbing, but it may just be partisan hackery to add insult to injury.

Teamsters overwhelmingly voted in favor of Trump, do we have more liberal arts majors than working class to explain the polls?

Make your predictions here, or not ;)

« First        Comments 19 - 39 of 39        Search these comments

19   Ceffer   2024 Sep 22, 9:50pm  

As might be expected, KamWalz signs going up, but not a yuge number so far. Two in my immediate hood, a handful in a 55 yo and over park next door where they should be old enough to know better. I did drive behind a car with a Trump sticker. I think putting out anything Trump is inviting property damage in Santa Cruz, not just signs being removed. Too many lesbos, people on the dole, section 8, etc. etc.
20   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Sep 22, 10:48pm  

RWSGFY says

I "akshually" saw my first Kummalala bumper sticker today.


You see Ukeys taking out the Death Star, too.
21   AD   2024 Sep 22, 11:04pm  

Biden won the popular vote by about 4.7%, and barely won Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin, and won by about less than 1.5% for Pennsylvania and less than 2.9% for Michigan.

See latest Real Clear Politics composite poll below. Notice that Biden and Clinton were way ahead on 21 September for their election years.


22   SoTex   2024 Sep 23, 6:12am  

About a 2:1 or better Trump:Harris ratio in the San Antonio neighborhood I just moved into. More and more of each are popping up.
23   WookieMan   2024 Sep 23, 6:19am  

AD says

See latest Real Clear Politics composite poll below. Notice that Biden and Clinton were way ahead on 21 September for their election years.

No chance she wins WI. I wouldn't put a huge bet on it because of cheating, but I see no way she wins it. Trump wins MI and PA. So basically over with one or two of the three. Might or probably should win MN as well.

Even in rural IL there are still a lot of liberals/dems. Almost non-existent support for Harris. Walz was an awful choice which may cost MN. Wake the citizens up and be like "shit, we voted for this weirdo for governor." Harris is/will LOSE 5 points at least because of him in MN. You got the largest Somali population #muslim in the country. Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah issues ain't gonna be liked.

There's no path to victory for Harris. The margin of error is 4. Florida and Ohio shouldn't even be on the list anyway. He gets 3 of those she's toast. I see WI, PA, MI, AZ, NV, NC, GA all going Trump.

This is why we have the electoral college. I don't want CA policies in my area. The only reason most democrats are ever in play is CA, IL and NY. The rest don't have enough EC votes to really move the needle. Trump needs 2 of those state and it's over. Hence why they're trying to kill him.
25   RayAmerica   2024 Sep 23, 7:19am  

Do you believe that this election will be stolen by the Democrats?

Yes - 99%
No - 0%
Undecided - 1%

Do you believe that the Republicans will do anything significant to stop the steal?

Yes - 0%
No - 100%
26   HeadSet   2024 Sep 23, 8:25am  

WookieMan says

I see WI, PA, MI, AZ, NV, NC, GA all going Trump.

With everyone concentrating on those states to stop a steal, watch a totally unexpected cheat come in and unwatched Texas goes for Harris. Maybe another surprise like the known swing states are cheated for Harris, but New York negates that by voting for Trump.
27   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Sep 23, 8:37am  

RayAmerica says

Do you believe that this election will be stolen by the Democrats?

Yes - 99%
No - 0%
Undecided - 1%

Do you believe that the Republicans will do anything significant to stop the steal?

Yes - 0%
No - 100%


I hereby vote this to be the most accurate poll I have seen on this thread so far.

But then again, I am a certified cynical GenX ratbastard.
28   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Sep 23, 8:41am  

Apparently, the Amish is really pissed at the Dems. In PA, Gov. Shapiro sent goons to raid their farms for unprocessed milk.


32   zzyzzx   2024 Sep 27, 9:19am  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says


Apparently, the Amish is really pissed at the Dems. In PA, Gov. Shapiro sent goons to raid their farms for unprocessed milk.





I hope they have busses and enough drivers to take Amish people to the polls. Also, I'm guessing pollsters aren't asking the Amish who they are voting for. They should turn this into a literal Trump Train. https://www.strasburgrailroad.com/
34   socal2   2024 Sep 30, 12:30pm  

Trump should be running away with this election based on the fundamentals and it should be well outside the range of the cheat.

I believe (hope) the polls are still undercounting support for Trump based on history and the Media's desire to suppress Republican enthusiasm.

But if Trump manages to lose this thing, that will be on us for nominating a candidate that had unique and very high unfavorable ratings capable of losing to someone as weak as Kamala and Waltz.
36   Ceffer   2024 Sep 30, 1:16pm  

How come there's not a column for the voting machines and drop off containers?
37   AmericanKulak   2024 Sep 30, 1:30pm  

Ceffer says

How come there's not a column for the voting machines and drop off containers?

@AD, hope all is well and no problems.
38   AD   2024 Sep 30, 2:59pm  

AmericanKulak says

AD, hope all is well and no problems.


I appreciate that

fortunately the track line of category 4 Hurricane Heline was about 120 miles east of here
39   HeadSet   2024 Sep 30, 6:17pm  

socal2 says

But if Trump manages to lose this thing, that will be on us for nominating a candidate that had unique and very high unfavorable ratings capable of losing to someone as weak as Kamala and Waltz.

No, it will be that the MAGA folks were unable to stop the steal. In an honest election, Trump wins in a landslide.

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